OStateBucks

Prospect

Posts: 57

Member Since: October 2016

Status: Offline

About me:

Signature:

Filter Posts by:

Entries	Thread Author	Posts	Activity
replied to Random SB Observation in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by OStateBucks: Conclusion (if you believe the trend carries any weight): - NE 34 vs ATL 28 - Take Over 58 - Take NE -3 I'm going to have to make note of this trend for next year. Would have made a lot more money I did... View Post \| View Thread	OStateBucks	4	February 06, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Don't think this is to far fetched....... in NFL Betting Will any player other than Brady or Ryan attempt a pass? Yes +250 Put some heavy money on that prop! Pays in case of injury, blowout, or a fake with Sanu/Edelman. View Post \| View Thread	Cooler999	5	February 02, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Patriots strength of schedule in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags: If we look purely at points given up by each of the opponents of the Patriots vs. Falcons AFTER subtracting any points the Patriots or Falcons have scored against their opponents we will find (we do this so we don't skew the results in favor of the Patriots who scored fewer regular season points): Patriots opponents have allowed 4294 points during the 2016 regular season against non-Patriots opponents Falcons opponents have allowed 4348 points during the 2016 regular season against non-Falcons opponents Now an argument can obviously be made that Falcons faced teams with stronger offenses, but the above proves the Falcons had a softer schedule against teams with weaker defenses in that they allowed more points per game. Of course! The 54 point difference is the definitive proof we've been missing. Clearly the 17.9 PPG given by the Pats opponents shows the clear defensive superiority over the ATL opponents who gave up an embarrassing 18.1 PPG. Afterall, football is a game of inches... View Post \| View Thread	chaloots	25	February 02, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Why you should ignore people talking about the Patriot's SOS being weak sauce in NFL Betting The exact sort of answer you'd expect from someone faced with facts that contradict the entirety of your post. View Post \| View Thread	Nycgags	67	February 02, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Why you should ignore people talking about the Patriot's SOS being weak sauce in NFL Betting Funny - there actually IS a statistic that measures team performance based on strength of schedule & point differential. Pythagorean Wins - projection of the team's expected wins based solely on points scored and allowed. NE - 12.8 ATL - 10.9 NE has 1.8 more expected wins based on point differential with no adj for opponent strength. Estimated Wins per "Forest Index" - DVOA factored in & projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule. NE - 11.9 ATL - 11.7 NE has 0.2 more expected wins against the same opponent quality. 89% of your point differential is a function of schedule (the 1.6 lower expected wins). Reference: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2017/final-2016-dvoa-ratings View Post \| View Thread	Nycgags	67	February 01, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Why you should ignore people talking about the Patriot's SOS being weak sauce in NFL Betting All team stats are a function of opponent quality - if you can't separate the impact of opponent quality from the team stats, then the stats are going to be massively misleading. Case in point - Carolina last year. #6 scoring defense - 19.3 PPG allowed #1 scoring offense - 31.3 PPG scored Offensive DVOA - #8 Strength of Schedule - #32 Clear gap between scoring offense ranking and DVOA offense ranking due to strength of competition. Facing Denver's #1 defense by DVOA that also played the 10th hardest schedule... View Post \| View Thread	Nycgags	67	February 01, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Patriots strength of schedule in NFL Betting Favorites are 18-16-2 (52.9%) covering 3 point spread this season, and 22-13-1 straightup (63%). In the past 5 years, favorites are 81-103-12 (44%) vs spread and 107-88-1 straightup (55%). I always felt 3 points was Vegas saying, "eh, we don't know either." *Source*: https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/odds-history/results/?season-filter=2016 View Post \| View Thread	chaloots	25	February 01, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Why you should ignore people talking about the Patriot's SOS being weak sauce in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags: I have proven 10x over in this thread and many others that NEP schedule has little-to-no impact on their abilities. All you have is excuses, both playoff games Patriots held opponents to 18 or fewer points. You are trying to make the case Houston is one of the worst teams in the league yet I have already listed the caliber of teams they have beaten this season, 2 of which were playoff teams. Steelers had the 10th ranked scoring offense in the league yet the Patriots stifled them to only 17 points, or 8 points lower than their season average. Any argument involving the ability to stifle Osweiler and the Houston offense is immediately suspect... View Post \| View Thread	Nycgags	67	February 01, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Why you should ignore people talking about the Patriot's SOS being weak sauce in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags: LMFAO 63%? Did you pull that number out of your behind? https://www.winthatpool.com/nfl/ 100,000 monte carlo simulations, put Patriots as favorites by 58.9% margin w/ 95% confidence. Stats are stats - outputs are a function of inputs. 58.9% is SU win prob, not against spread. If you only care about the #1 scoring defense: SEA has been #1 regular scoring defense in 2015 / 2014 / 2013 / 2012. 2015 - lost to CAR, 31 points scored on them. CAR was #1 scoring offense. - beat MIN, 9 points scored on them. MIN was #16 scoring offense. 2014 - lost to NE, 28 points scored on them. NE was #4 scoring offense. - beat GB, 22 points scored on them, GB was #1 scoring offense. - beat CAR, 17 points scored on them, CAR was #19 scoring offense. 2013 - beat DEN in SB. 8 points scored on them. DEN was #1 scoring offense. - beat SF, 17 points scored on them. SF was #11 scoring offense. - beat NO, 15 points scored on them. NO was #10 scoring offense. 2012 - lost to ATL, 30 points scored on them. ATL was #7 scoring offense. - beat WAS, 14 points scored on them. WAS was #4 scoring offense. So the regular season #1 scoring defense team is: - 7-3 straightup in the post-season - 5-3 straightup when facing a top 11 scoring offense - Losses to the #1, #4, and #7 scoring offenses, with ~30 points given up. Hardly one-sided for either the offense or defense... View Post \| View Thread	Nycgags	67	February 01, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Why you should ignore people talking about the Patriot's SOS being weak sauce in NFL Betting Why only 15? Go back to at least 1970 at least. I was doing the calculation manually and got lazy. DVOA rankings also doesn't go back that far. Why is this criteria important? Because its a quantitative metric showing difference in strength of schedule. E.g. if a team is the #1 scoring defense but #11 DVOA defense, the difference is due to opponent quality. Why are you choosing these completely arbitrary numbers (top 10 defense, 7 spots lower and 14 rankings lower)? It sounds like you adjusting all of these variables to "cook" the result you want to show. Patriots are #1 scoring defense and #11 DVOA defense. So I limited sample to teams that have similar profile, teams with highly ranked scoring defenses but lower ranked DVOA defenses. Team Profiles: - Avg scoring defense rank: 5.5 - Avg defensive DVOA ranking: 14.9 - Avg offense faced by offense DVOA: 9.1 Patriots are #1 scoring defense, why would you lump them with #2, #3, #4, and #5, again you are cooking the results to show a specific outcome. Using this years numbers 1. Pats PA = 250 5. Cowboys PA = 306 Because it's a comparison of relative strength. Just because Dallas gives up 19.1 PPG in the regular season doesn't mean that translates to post-season. View Post \| View Thread	Nycgags	67	February 01, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Why you should ignore people talking about the Patriot's SOS being weak sauce in NFL Betting Like I mentioned, I cap based on relative strength & expected variance only: - Team A Offense vs Team B Defense - Team B Offense vs Team A Defense I have ATL +3 since it has the best probability of success (63%), which isn't a lock by any means, but has the best expected value out of any available bet. View Post \| View Thread	Nycgags	67	February 01, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Why you should ignore people talking about the Patriot's SOS being weak sauce in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags: Also Houston made it to the playoffs, I like how you consider them one of the worst teams in the league (you said offense but you insinuated team), that would mean the only strong teams in the NFL are on the NFC. Too bad the pro-bowl showed this to be patently false. Oh god yes - Houston is absolutely one of the worst teams in the league. Defense is good but the offense is terrible. The only reason Houston made playoffs is because they are in AFC South and Mariota got hurt. View Post \| View Thread	Nycgags	67	February 01, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Why you should ignore people talking about the Patriot's SOS being weak sauce in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags: Why is only Offense important? They had the 7th ranked defense (according to Football Outsiders the source of your DVOA) and Atlanta has the 27th ranked defense. Are you insinuating offensive rank is more important than defensive rank when it comes to evaluating Super Bowl contenders? History would strongly disagree with you. Nearly the entirety of your thesis is that: - NE has best scoring defense and gives up X PPG - Therefore NE will hold ATL to X PPG No one is challenging the assumption that NE OFF vs ATL DEF is advantage NE, and should result in ~30 points scored by NE. Capping the game then comes down to ATL OFF vs NE DEF, and NE defense has the X factor of being padded by a weak schedule, so that's where the greatest uncertainty lies. View Post \| View Thread	Nycgags	67	February 01, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Why you should ignore people talking about the Patriot's SOS being weak sauce in NFL Betting Why you shouldn't ignore strength of schedule when capping a defense. I looked at 15 past playoff games where: - Defensive DVOA was substantially lower than scoring defense rank - To qualify, a team had have a top 10 scoring defense ranking in the regular season & defense DVOA rank at least 7 spots lower (e.g. #7 in scoring defense & #14 in DVOA ranking) Team Profiles: - Avg scoring defense rank: 5.5 - Avg defensive DVOA ranking: 14.9 - Avg offense faced by offense DVOA: 9.1 Results - Avg points allowed in playoff games: 25.9 - Avg ppg allowed in reg season: 18.8 - Avg ppg scored by opp in reg season: 25.8 Defense gave up 7 points more in post-season compared to regular season, while the offense had minimal variance. When facing a top 5 offense by DVOA: - Avg scoring defense rank: 5.3 - Avg defensive DVOA ranking: 15.3 - Avg offense faced by offense DVOA: 2.3 Results - Avg points allowed in playoff games: 24.9 - Avg ppg allowed in reg season: 18.7 - Avg ppg scored by opp in reg season: 26.4 Defense gave up 6 points more in post-season compared to regular season, while the offense scored 2 points less. There were only 5 games where the defense gave the same or fewer points relative to their regular season average: Min vs Sea in 2015 (10 points given up in playoff vs 18.9 season avg) SF vs CAR in 2013 (10 points given up in playoff vs 17.0 season avg) KS vs Pit in 2016 (18 points given up in playoff vs 19.4 season avg) Cin vs Pit in 2015 (18 points given up in playoff vs 17.4season avg) NE vs Ind in 2013 (22 points given up in playoff vs 21.1 season avg) *Reference/Sample Used:* 2016 Kansas City 2016 Dallas 2015 Minnesota 2015 Cincinnati 2014 Arizona 2013 San Francisco 2013 New England 2013 Kansas City 2012 Atlanta 2011 Cincinnati 2010 Atlanta View Post \| View Thread	Nycgags	67	February 01, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Why you should ignore people talking about the Patriot's SOS being weak sauce in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags: Revised list, since original calculations included playoff schedule NEP: Steelers Steelers Seahawks (Loss) Dolphins Dolphins Texans Texans Broncos Ravens Cardinals ATL: Chiefs (Loss) Raiders Seahawks Seahawks (Loss) Packers Packers Broncos Bucs (Loss) Bucs Cardinals Your analysis is fundamentally flawed because comparing "top 10" opponents is still comparing apples-to-oranges. NE Top 10 =/= ATL Top 10 in opponent quality. 20% of your sample is Houston Texans, which is simply one of the worst offenses in the league. View Post \| View Thread	Nycgags	67	February 01, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Why you should ignore people talking about the Patriot's SOS being weak sauce in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags: I am not sure what you are arguing, you are just regurgitating what the DVOA site says. I am arguing against those stating NEP is not a strong team since they didn't play anyone good (hence their weak SOS dictates they cannot stop ATL). I gave examples how when we compare apples to apples each of their 10 respective hardest matches, their opponents records matchup nearly identically, particularly when you take into account NEP forced their opponents to lose more games and comparatively ATL allowed some of their opponents to win more games thru beating ATL. I'm arguing: - DVOA already provides an apples to apples comparison of rankings & a normalized expected win total (forest index). - The teams are separated by 0.2 wins, so if Atlanta played the same schedule NE played, you'd see virtually identical numbers. - The 50% point differential you reference is actually statistically insignificant View Post \| View Thread	Nycgags	67	February 01, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Why you should ignore people talking about the Patriot's SOS being weak sauce in NFL Betting You know, just noticed this game looks a bit similar to the 2013 AFC Conference Championship game. Granted that game was @DEN, so much different environment and conducive to lower scoring game. NE: #5 overall DVOA #4 offensive #21 defensive DVOA #2 special teams DVOA #5 strength of schedule per opp DVOA #3 scoring offense #10 scoring defense DEN: #2 overall DVOA #1 offensive DVOA #15 defensive DVOA #21 special teams DVOA #2 strength of schedule per opp DVOA #1 scoring offense #22 scoring defense View Post \| View Thread	Nycgags	67	February 01, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Why you should ignore people talking about the Patriot's SOS being weak sauce in NFL Betting My understanding is DVOA is measured per play and factors in opponent strength of schedule. So removing "weaker" opponents won't impact the final DVOA score if each play is given equal weight. "The biggest variable in football is the fact that each team plays a different schedule against teams of disparate quality. By adjusting each play based on the opposing defense’s average success in stopping that type of play over the course of a season, we get DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average." View Post \| View Thread	Nycgags	67	February 01, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Kyle Shanahan vs the Patriots in NFL Betting 2009 DVOA Ratings NE - #4 overall - #1 offense - #14 defense HOU - #14 overall - #10 offense - #20 defense 2011 DVOA Ratings NE - #4 overall - #3 offense - #30 defense WAS - #21 overall - #19 offense - #14 defense View Post \| View Thread	OStateBucks	3	February 01, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Kyle Shanahan vs the Patriots in NFL Betting Found 2 previous games where Kyle Shanahan was the OC vs the Patriots. Both games went over, line was basically spot on... 2009 Week 17 - NE @ HOU - NE 27 - HOU 34 - Brady played ~66% of the game - 46 total / HOU -7 2011 Week 14 - WAS @ NE - WAS 27 - NE 34 - 47 total / NE -7.5 View Post \| View Thread	OStateBucks	3	February 01, 2017 View Post \| View Thread

About Us

Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials

Betting Guides

Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming

Sports Betting

US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps

Contests

Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools

The Covers community has

618,670

lifetime members worldwide

Join our community today

Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.

Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service

Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.

OStateBucks Follow Follow Unfollow

OStateBucks