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This is not only a BIG 5* play for me at +7, I put 1* on the +275 ML. You didn't even mention SEMO's highly touted 3* freshman 6-8 Nino Johnson who is rapidly closing the skill gap between himself  and Powell and Stone. I can tell you from personal observation that this SEMO is fired up to get this one underway.

I was completely wrong on our second game as Bradley wins big  81-62. Bradley goes 27-28 from the FT line.Bottom line in this one it looked like the Bradley players just wanted this one more. 1-1 -.6U.

I'm kind of leery of that game. I like Morehead to win the game but TTU has been playing pretty good ball lately. MSU beat Tech twice this year. By 9 at home and by 13 at Tech. I don't like this number so I'm not going to force a play, especially when I like the other game a lot.

We get a winner with our first game as UNI wins 55-40. Someone forgot to tell UNI when the game started as they fell behind by 11 in the first 12 minutes of the game. After UNI woke up they put on a defensive clinic holding Drake without a field goal for the next 21 minutes. Then they just tried to kill the clock the last 6 minutes of the game 1-0 +3 units on the day. Next up Creighton. GO TEAM GO!!!

DRAKE  VS  N. IOWA -10

UNI won and covered both meetings this year, 57-48 at Drake and 67-51 at UNI. There is one area that UNI holds a good edge and thats on the boards as they're ranked 3rd in the conference in rebounding margin at +4.2 pg while Drake is ranked last at -6.4 pg. Not a lot to say in this one as UNI holds the edge in most stats. I really look for UNI to come out and make a statement in this one and cover the 10 point spread. This is a 12 noon start in the central time zone and Drake did play at 6pm central last night.

3  #848  N. IOWA  -10  -110

BRADLEY  VS  CREIGHTON -3.5

Creighton comes into this game on a 3 game winning streak while Bradley comes in 2-1 in their last 3 games. The stats between these two teams are pretty much equal. To me there are two big edges for Creighton, coach, Dana Altman and history. While this hasn't been a great season by Creighton standards this is noe the post season and Creighton has the dean of Valley coaches on their bench. Creighton is 36-18 all time in MVC tournament games. Altman is 22-13 all time against Bradley and winners of the last 6 meetings. He is also 15-3 against Bradley coach Jim Les. In the last 29 meetings between the two schools, Creighton is 15-1 when holding Bradley to 65 points or less. Creighton has also won the last 22 meeting when they have scored 70 points or more against Bradley. Creighton has had Bradleys number lately and Dana Altman has proven in the past that he is a great tournament coach. I a game where the two teams are pretty evenly matched I think having Dana Altman on the bench is enough to give Creighton the win and cover against this short line. I'm looking at the Drake/N. Iowa game next.

3  #850  CREIGHTON  -3 -120 (BH)

Murray St. is my Top Play of the day. G/L

EIU  VS  MURRAY ST.  -12.5

 The OVC tournament now moves to Nashville for the semi's and finals. A lot of people will look at this matchup and see that EIU has won 8 in a row and and is 6-2 ats in those games and think this game will probably go down to the wire. First let me say I have probable made more money on EIU games this year than any other team. Lets take a closer look at those 8 games. I've said repeatedly this year that EIU is two different teams depending on if they're at home or on the road. In these last 8 wins 6 of those games were at home and the two road wins were against Tenn-Martin and SEMO, the bottom two teams in the conference. This game is at a neutral site or a road game for each team. In conference games EIU was 3-6 on the road with their 3 wins coming against the bottom 3 teams in the conference. On the other hand Murray St. lost 1 game in conference play all year. That was at 2nd place Morehead after Murray had already locked up the regular season championship. Out of 9 conference road games this year Murray St. won by more than 12.5 six times. Out of EIU's six road losses 4 were by more than 12.5 points. In their two games against Murray St., EIU lost at home by 9 as 11.5 point dogs and lost by 16 at Murray as 18.5 point dogs. The difference in this game is EIU is only getting 1 more point for playing at a neutral site as they got when they played Murray at home. Murray has proven all year that they can play and win big on the road. Once Murray St. locked up the championship they coasted till the end of the year. As we all saw in the first round of the tournament Murray is very focased now as they destroyed a much improved Tenn St. team, that had went 5-1 in their last six conference games, 84-51. Tenn. St's lone loss in that 6 game span was the last game of the regular season in a very close game at EIU 66-61. The only drawback in this one is I'm sure EIU will play mainly a zone defense against Murray. Murray St. is much better playing against a man to man defense than a zone. The only team in this conference that comes anywhere close to Murray in talent is Morehead. I believe this Murray St. team is very focased and will take no prisoners. They are on a mission and EIU just doesn't have the horses (pun intended) to slow them down. This is my Top Play of the day. I'll have some more plays tomorrow so check back. Regular season record 92-76 +40.06U.  post season record 3-1 +7.7U.

5  #868 MURRAY ST. -12  -120 (BH)

EIU is just as bad on the road as they are good at home. They went 3-6 on the road in conference play with the three wins against the bottom three teams in the conference. Murray beat EIU by 9 at EIU and by 16 at their place. Murray is head and shoulders better than any team in this conference except maybe Morehead. If the line is close to 10 I really like Murray St. The semi-finals are played Friday in Nashville. G/L

AND THAT'S A WINNER!!!! 

We start out our postseason on a good note going 3-1 +7.7 units. In our lone loss Murray St. used a big second half to run away and hide from Tenn St. 84-51. Morehead won big 87-54 and this game was never in doubt. Tenn. Tech wins outright 68-65 and we were never in danger of losing the cover. Our big 5 unit play on EIU ends up winning 68-61 after trailing by 4 at the half. Now the tournament moves to Nashville for the semi-finals and finals. postseason record now 3-1 +7.7 units.

I only post plays on two conferences. The OVC and MVC. I'm a SEMO booster and that is the team I know the best so it's only natural that I follow the OVC very close. But like I posted on another forum today, some times having too much info about certain teams can hurt you.

Thanks to everyone that responded to my thread. Now I just hope I didn't lay an egg for everyone.LOL...

I went on a Morehead blog and ask about him. They said as far as they have heard he will probable play but have limited minutes unless it's a close game.  I don't really think his status makes that much difference in the outcome.

I'm checking on it now.

Quote Originally Posted by captjohn67:

if you can find a prop on murray st to win it all, play it {even though it would be probably be even money or less } and you are correct in your assessment of j'ville st, they will get rolled...nice write -up and good luck  

If you can get Murray St. at even money or better to win the OVC tournament, fire down on it. I make them better than even money to win it all. The only team that could give them trouble is Morehead. If they meet it will be in the finals and you can get Morehead at + money if you want to hedge.

Tuesday night starts the first round of the OVC postseason tournament at the home courts of the top four finishers of the regular season.

EKU  AT  EIU -1

These two teams split their two regular season meetings with EKU winning at home 67-59 and EIU winning at home 77-54. There's only one stat that matters in this game and that's home court vs playing on the road. I've stated many times this year that EIU is a very good team at home going 8-1 with their only loss to league champion Murray St. Meanwhile EKU was only an average team on the road with a 4-5 away record. I think we're getting a great line in this one and that's why I'm making it my TOP PLAY of the first round. Regular season record 92-76  +40.06U. 

5  #560  EIU  -1  -110

TENN. ST. +20.5  AT  MURRAY ST.

 Make no mistake, Murray St. is easily the best team in this matchup and I look for them to come out very focused. I have been very impressed with Tenn. St. first year coach John Cooper. I believe he will have this program turned around in a very short time. One thing that you just can't ignore about this Tenn. St. team. Coach Cooper kicked four players of the team on Feb. 3. They included two of the teams top players. Before these players were kicked off the team Tenn. St. was 4-7 against the spread in conference games. After the players were kicked off the team went 6-0-1 against the spread in conference games. That push came in the first game without those four players at Murray St. They also won against the spread in their bracketbuster game at C. Michigan. I hate going against Murray but with this large of a line and as well as TSU has been covering against the spread I'm willing to back TSU in this spot.

3  #555  TENN ST  +20.5  -110

JACKSONVILLE ST.  AT  MOREHEAD ST. -15

 Morehead won both meetings this year winning 78-71 on the road and 94-75 at home. JSU's top scorer, Trenton Marshall was suspended for the rest of the season four games ago. In JSU's last three road games they lost at AP 83-63, lost at Tenn. St. 76-57, and lost at Tenn Tech 72-62. This is more of a gut feeling than anything else. I really think that Morehead is going to steamroll JSU in this one. There's a big mismatch in talent in this one and I think the home team wins by 20+.

3  #554  MOREHEAD ST.  -15  -110

TENN TECH  +9  AT  AUSTIN PEAY

These two teams split in the regular season with AP winning 77-72 in overtime at home and TTU won at home 94-90. However in both games TTU won against the spread. I like AP to win the game outright but think this is just too many points to be giving. The only thing that gives me pause in this one is AP head coach Dave Loose gets all the calls from the refs, especially at home. Let's grab the points in what should be a fairly close game.

3  #557  TENN TECH  +9  -110