PopcornReady

If you want to talk bad beats.  I know it’s not football, but I think this definitely counts.  Had an under 11.5 runs in a Houston-Colorado game a few years back.  I figured on a pitching duel and thought the line was way too high.  Game goes to extra innings tied 2-2.  Houston scores eight runs in the top of the tenth, or eleventh inning.  

Under was absolutely the play.  I also took Chubb to score a TD and the Browns to win the game.  That paid nicely.  I could care less what he did at the end.  

No RBI bets today.  Definitely need to review approach for bets like that (at least).

Bundy was on point for strikeouts.

2020 record:

4-12 single bets 

3-4 two pick parlays -0.28 units

Today’s picks:

Cubs/Pirates over 9.5 (+143):

I heard wind is blowing in, but given the bullpens for these teams and given that Williams is a gas can against the Cubs, going over here.

Mike Minor over 4.5 strikeouts (-113)

Giants struggled bad (strikeouts wise) against Bundy last night.  Only need five to cash here instead of seven.  I’ll roll with this.

Two pick parlay :

Yankees over 5.5 runs and Cubs over 4.5 runs (+224):

Weber is a gas can and against this Yankee lineup, have to think they can do damage here.  Williams has struggled against the Cubs badly and I see no reason to believe he won’t struggle here as well.

Adding two pick parlay:

Nick Ahmed to get a hit along with JD Davis to get an RBI (+204):

Ahmed (although he hasn’t had a strong start to the year) seems to have Stripling’s number.

13 AB, .538 average, two HR, six RBI’s.

Davis has had an RBI the last two games and seems to be getting base runners on ahead of him.  Paired with a gas can starter, I’ll roll with this. 

Well, Royals has four runs after three innings, yet couldn’t score one more and the Brewers don’t seem to know how to cash runners in.

Chris Paddack definitely pulled his weight with exactly six strikeouts last night and the Braves held on to lead after five.  So a very small profit last night, but could always be worse.

2020 record:

3-9 single picks 

3-3 two pick parlays

+1.35 units

Today’s picks

Dylan Bundy over 6.5 strikeouts (+137):

Faced a much better Oakland lineup in his first start this year and struck out seven.  Faced a more potent Seattle lineup last year and over the number here too.  This number shouldn’t be as high as it is here in my opinion and I’m going to take advantage of it.

Los Angeles Angels over 5.5 runs (+100):

Rendon being in this lineup makes a difference.  Marco Gonzales is not a quality starting pitcher in my opinion and I believe this number is also too high.  

Whit Merrifield over 1.5 hits (+144):

Absolutely on fire hitting wise to start the year.  I normally wouldn’t bet a player for two hits, but given he is 6 for 10 against Nova and has feasted on Tigers pitching the whole series, I’ll roll the dice here.

No parlay as of yet.  Not sure if I will have other picks yet, or not. 

Well Votto and Hosmer didn’t get what I would call quality chances to drive in a run.

Lorenzo Cain couldn’t get a pitch thrown over the plate with runners at second and third with one out and ended up being intentionally walked after he was 3-0.  Definitely frustrating there.

Cubs on the other hand scored a timely run in the top of the 5th for the draw no bet win in the first five and the Indians did enough off Rodon coming back from Tommy John surgery to win game two for the parlay yesterday.  

2020 record:

1-8 single picks

3-2 two pick parlays 

(rather odd record to see obviously)

+1.27 units

On to today’s picks:

Braves to lead after five innings (-103):

Soroka seems to be a quality pitcher early game.  Morton was saying before his first start he wasn’t feeling at his best and seemingly showed it in his first start.  I like Soroka to keep the rays at bat first five and hope that Atlanta can score a few early.

Whit Merrifield for an RBI (+150):

39 at bats against Boyd.  .513 batting average with eight RBI’s.  He can hit the HR, if he sees a good pitch to turn on, but I have to think if he gets a RISP when he’s up, has a great shot at driving one in.  Tigers bullpen hasn’t exactly been stellar either if it comes to that.  Price here is way too high in my opinion to ignore given everything mentioned, to go along with his hot start to the year.  

Chris Paddack over 5.5 strikeouts (+110):

Had three starts against (IMO) a better overall lineup for the Giants last year.  Had no less then six strikeouts in any of the three.  Even with one of those starts not being a good one.  I think + value is a gift all things considered here.

Two pick parlay:

Brewers over 4.5 runs to go with Royals over 4.5 runs (+274):

Given the issues Boyd seems to have with KC and the suspect bullpen, I like Royals to at least get a good amount of runs here.

As for the Brewers, Musgrove is terrible against the Brewers and the bullpen is one of the worst in the league.  I know Brewers have been a little flat with the bats to a degree, but even as such, they have reached the number tonight in the previous games against the Pirates.  I can’t see them doing worse than what they have done in the previous games in this series.  

Adding Lorenzo Cain for an RBI at +151.  Not a good starting pitcher for the Pirates, Cain has been decent to start the year and going against a shaky Pirates bullpen.  Worth a shot given the too high of price in my opinion here.

Adding Eric Hosmer for an RBI (+125).  Also off to a hot start and has been effective against the starter for the Giants tonight.  

So from yesterday, Mike Montgomery clearly forgot a game lasts nine innings and not just one.  Definitely didn’t get over 3.5 strikeouts.

Joey Votto definitely benefited from a wild pitch so that he could drive in an RBI.

And as far as my parlay yesterday, Ramon Laureano did his job with a sac fly and the Royals didn’t roll over like a dog and came back from down 5-1 to win handily and cash a nice +349 two pick parlay.

2020 season:

1-5 single picks

2-2 two team parlays

+1.71 units

As for today....

Joey Votto for an RBI (+129).  His hot start continued last night.  This number in my opinion is still too high given his start.  I’m going to keep betting him until he misses.

Two pick parlay: Draw no bet for Cubs lead after five innings, paired with Indians ML in game two (+256).

Tyler Mahle isn’t a quality starter in my opinion (also wasn’t great against cubs last year) and after the way the bullpen had to be used last night, I have to give the nod at least for first five to the Cubs here.  But took the draw no bet since it’s an ok price here.  Carlos Rodon coming back after Tommy John Surgery.  I said after the Ohtani performance against Oakland that if I see any pitcher in the same spot, I’m betting against that pitcher.  I did so last night with betting the Royals and I’ll do it again here.

One other game I’m waiting to see something on before making a decision.  If I make any other bets, I will post them.  

Since I know these are my first posted plays this year, I’m going to preface my picks by saying my picks/units are as follows:

0-3 straight up picks

1-2 two pick parlays

-2.28 units for the year.

Parlay that hit was yesterday Cavan Biggio to get a hit, paired with Michael Brantley to get an RBI.

As for today...

Joey Votto for an RBI (+150).  Red hot to start the year and had an RBI in two of the three meetings against Lester last year.  I think this is a gift price.

Mike Montgomery over 3.5 strikeouts (+118).
Two games against Tigers last year:

Game one: 7IP, four hits, 12 strikeouts, no walks, no ER.

Game two: 5 2/3IP, six hits, five strikeouts, one walk, one ER.

Given the amount of strikeouts there and the strikeouts Tigers have had in the first three, worth a shot for +value in my opinion.

Two pick parlay:

Ramon Laureano to get an RBI, plus Royals to win (+349):

Laureano hit against Canning in three games last year.  Hit a home run off him in two of those games and got an RBI off the bullpen in the other.  Given Ohtani no showing yesterday, have to think this is a good spot for Laureano.  

Fulmer for Detroit got rocked in his last start against the Royals.  It seems he is going to be an opener now (coming back from Tommy John surgery).  Given Montgomery’s effectiveness and the Tigers strikeout rate to start the year, I give Royals at least 55% chance to win as a dog here.  

I was watching this game, I think that you’re right.  Only explanation that makes sense.  

So here’s my thing.  I know what the yardage is according to NFL.com.  But this makes no sense.  I had this in a parlay with the over in the Monday nighter.  

It was 2nd and 11 at the Bengals 34 yard line and it was the very first play after the two minute warning.

Was called defensive PI.

I saw that play you speak of in the Colts game and that was horrible.

Well on NFL.com.  The play was a catch for 16 yards.  But the penalty ended up being 16 yards.  That’s why I’m like huh?

I had A.J. Green to have at least 79 yards in the Bengals/Falcons game.

The first play after the two minute warning, he makes a catch for 16 yards, which is called off due to PI on Atlanta.  Since he finished with 78, I have to ask.  I could understand the penalty standing if there’s no catch.  With Green catching the ball regardless, I guess I’m a little confused.  Seems like it’s a really crappy way to lose on a bet (since the catch was made and the yards were there).  

Should have kicked the that FG instead of going for it on 4th down when you didn’t even need to Houston.  I win my two teamer with Bengals and my three teamer is alive.