Popo21

*When down 9 points late-ish, there’s a case that you should go for 2, because being down 8, you would have to go for 2 to draw even eventually anyway, and it’s better to know whether you converted your attempt earlier so you can make tactical adjustments.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-to-go-for-2-for-real/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-to-go-for-2-for-real/

Here's a link to the study. You can clearly see that when after one TD you are down 9, you go for two because it gives you nearly double the percentage to draw even.

They DID, when coaches who learned from John Madden went with old school thinking. That's why they pay 500k to data scientists to figure out the real statistics.

The reason why keeping it a 1 possession game was common back in the day was

1) There was no kneel-downs

2) Onside kicks were much more commonly recovered

When you leave the 2pt to the last TD, you don't know where you stand. So, if you miss on that conversion, the game is essentially over.

If you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD with 4mins left, you can now strategically plan for the next two possessions. Either way, you need to convert a 2pt conversion.  You always have the same % to make it, but the later you leave it, the less chance you have to adapt if you miss it.

I will bet you $1000 right now that all the analytics support this. You can look at NFL games and see this season nearly all of the teams have gone for the 2pt conversion on the first TD when down 15. Why? Because exactly what other people are arguing.

You know where you stand, then you have the chance to kick a FG and go for the onside kick with 2mins left. If not, you go for a 2pt conversion with under a minute left. If you don't get it, then the game is over.

It would have been 8 points, which means they still had to score a 2pt conversion. You don't even know what you're arguing about.

And what? You recover the ball at your own 40, then the D is waiting for you to pass on every play. You aren't going to make any 20+ passes, but maybe some under throws. 

That's why you are posting on Covers and a data scientist is getting paid 500k to work for NFL teams to figure these things out.

I understand your thinking. But, you need to understand that there are 2 possessions. There is no difference if you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD or the 2nd TD. 

Explain the difference and I'll listen...

2 Things:

1) The analytics show its better to go for two when you're down 15 on the first TD, so you know where you stand in the rest of the game. If they went for the XP and then missed the 2pt later, it's the same.

2) Why go for the FG when you're inside the 10? If you even recover the onside kick, you still need to move the ball without any TOs. You are 500% more likely to get a TD on a 4th down inside the 10 than you are on a hail mary outside the 40.

I think the 7.5 number is right, as Cinci is definitely the favorite but need to win by a touchdown plus a score.

First of all, BC's rushing system is what gains yards, not just Dillon himself. Bailey had nearly 1000 yards as a backup and the team averages 267 rushing yards per game, so while missing Dillon is not great, I don't think it will have such a massive impact.

Next, the QB for Cinci has not been good since he came back from an injury. No throwing TDs and under 50% completion in his past three games. Cinci lost their last two against a good Memphis team, but also only scraped by teams like Temple, USF, East Carolina and UCF by all 4 points or less. For that reason, 7.5 in a neutral-site game is a pretty big spread for them.

It's going to be 56 degrees and raining in Birmingham for the game, so it should be sloppy. I like BC's ability to run the ball in that situation, keeping it a close game.

I think it will go under the 55 total and like BC +7.5, as I see this something of a 23-20 type game in bad weather.

The average recovery time for a torn meniscus is 6-8 weeks, so I think playing professional level tennis (on the worst possible surface for ligaments) is a bit extreme. Regardless, the value is there with such a severe injury. After the slip in Boodles, he lost 5 of the last 6 points in the SBT to Broady, who is about the same class as Jung.

I'm just passing along the information I have. If you watched the Boodles match against Broady it was clear that Paire injured himself on a slip in the Tiebreak.

https://twitter.com/BenRothenberg/status/1014131484754677760

Here's the original post from Ben Rothenberg which caught my interest. I had my friend swing by the training area to confirm about the severity of the injury and he also said he heard meniscus injury.

https://twitter.com/andy_balibrea/status/1014161239801462784

Here is a picture in case anybody is wondering. Also, I have sources other than those from Twitter as I used to be a sportsbook manager for a UK-based betting company and have quite some friends on the grounds.

Got Jung +380 right when the news hit, still available for about +275 at many books.

I recommend taking it with a book that pays out in case of retirement, as it seems extremely unlikely he can go 3+ sets with such a bad injury.