RedPumpkin

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replied to Dodgers @ Rangers June 16 in MLB Betting I don't recall the last time I saw such fortunate numbers for a pitcher to begin his season. Of course, regression doesn't have to occur in a single game or over x starts, but Gonzalez will regress. Here's his AAA (Round Rock) surface line--admittedly a small sample of just 8 games, but more in line with his actual skills: 3-5, 43.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 5.4 K/9, .275 oppBA. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	7	June 16, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Dodgers @ Rangers June 16 in MLB Betting Added note (for readers in general): It's rarely a good idea to change a selection you really like based on the opinion of someone else. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	7	June 16, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Dodgers @ Rangers June 16 in MLB Betting Hey, TreyInventor Hadn't really thought of a score, but in a hitter-friendly park, it does help both pitchers that they give up more gounders than flyballs--Anderson especially. If I have to guess, and if Chi Chi's regression is, say, an avg of 3% across the board, I'd think 5 or 6 runs for the Dodgers alone. (The ML will likely continue moving in favor of Texas, by the way, but the total will likely remain the same.) View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	7	June 16, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Dodgers @ Rangers June 16 in MLB Betting The luckiest pitcher in all of baseball? Chi Chi Gonzalez, hands down. Granted, this guy has the raw potential to be very good some day (the Rangers didn't make him their 1st pick in 2013 for his looks), but, for now, he's smoke and mirrors. ERA is a deceiving stat for many reasons, so what's driving Chi Chi's? Luck--all across the board. He has a hit rate of just 20% and a strand rate of 96%. His command has been below average and his swinging strike rate is a mere 7%. In short, his expected ERA is near 5. Right now, he's a two-pitch pitcher (a 92+ fastball and a good slider), as he works to gain better control over his change and curve. He and the Rangers will be opposing Brett Anderson today, a pitcher with decent skills who could have been a pitcher with great skills had not injuries interrupted growth. Still, the Dodgers could do much worse. Anderson figures to continue going pretty much as he has been this season--unless he's injured again. The Dodgers at the current -130 appear to not present great value, but the thought of even the slightest regression for Chi Chi tells me otherwise. Dodgers to win. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	7	June 16, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Nats @ Rays June 15 in MLB Betting Again, just to document, although plays can be readily accessed via my Covers blog. Final: Rays 6, Nats 1. W: Ramirez L: Gonzalez Total record in posted plays: 23-7 W-L doesn't mean much in baseball, but all are assumed to be ML; moreover, I look for value, so many underdogs; if favorites, usually only slight ones View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	3	June 15, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Nats @ Rays June 15 in MLB Betting As of now, the Rays are slight favorites at -113. Erasmo Ramirez takes the mound for the Rays tonight, and he comes under the "What have you done for me lately?" dept. In Ramirez's case, the answer is "plenty". Nevermind that sub-2 ERA over his last three starts. Chi Chi Gonzalez of the Rangers, for example, has posted far superior surface stats, but his are the result of bald luck, not skills. What's different about Ramirez's seemingly new-found skills? The first thing that jumps out is his swinging K rate of 15% over the past three outings. That's Scherzer territory, folks. Moreover, Ramirez had been the victim of a very low strand rate of just 58% this season, and as that has headed north, his expected ERA (xERA) has gone downward, and now sits at 1.5 runs (!) below his surface ERA. And always possessed with good command, he's also allowed just 2 BBs since May 30. Of course, the knock on Erasmo is that he's basically a 5 IP guy. But with the likes of Jepsen, Boxberger, and McGee behind him, I look for a solid Rays outing. Washington's Gio Gonzalez is no stranger to bad luck, either, as his xERA sits at a full run below the surface ERA. For Gio, too, the culprit has been a horrible strand rate. Especially given that his velocity has remained at a constant 92 MPH all season, his future looks much better than his past. That said, I still like the Rays and their pitching tonight. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	3	June 15, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Astros @ ChiSox Jue 9 in MLB Betting Just to document (since I never have followed up on any post). Final: Sox 4, Astros 2. W: Rodon L: Keuchel. Total record in blog posts: 22-7 (Easy to research by date). W-L doesn't mean much in baseball, but all are assumed to be ML; moreover, I always look for value, so many underdogs; if favorites, usually only slight ones. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	2	June 10, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Astros @ ChiSox Jue 9 in MLB Betting The White Sox- Astros tonight presents a "value" play, I think. Over a year ago, before Dallas Keuchel was much known, I posted here (in my blog entries, maybe) basically that this guy was for real, with a solid skills set.. I still think he's solid, but he's also been the luckiest pitcher in MLB this season. He's been fortunate with a very low hit % and strand %, for beginners. These rates are simply unsustainable. True, regression doesn't happen in a single game, and Keuchel is still an extreme groundball pitcher. which especially helpful at Cellular. ( Keuchel also has an unsustainable fly/homer rate.) But can the Astros score enough runs to cover Keuchel? Maybe--if they can get enough balls into play. Rodon is a rookie pitcher and Houston's already seen this guy. But the first-rounder lefty is one to watch over the next couple of years: He throws hard and has an evil slider. His command is a work-in-progress, though, and he lacks another pitch. Still, I'll take the Sox here. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	2	June 09, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to "Team Experts" for covers are 16 - 1 on Pirates so I put my $$ on the other team in MLB Betting I'm no covers expert, but there is some value in the Brewers tonight. Burnett has been relying on more than just a little luck this season, as his xERA is well above his surface ERA. View Post \| View Thread	magiccarpetride	4	June 08, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to **Crazy Stat Cole Hamels is 14-0 against the Reds in MLB Betting** Quote Originally Posted by Big_Hersch: He has never lost against the Reds in his career! Not only that when he pitches, the team out scores the Reds by 5 runs a game. There last game was won by one run. In his career he has beat the Reds by one run in 5 games. I do not know if we can fade that. What does everyone think? Since you asked: Cole's record vs Cincy since--what, 2006?--makes little difference. I realize bettors look for so-called trends, but unless the Reds have had virtually the same lineup over the past 8 years (and Philly, for that matter), this stat is meaningless. View Post \| View Thread	Big_Hersch	34	June 08, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Sunday Night MLB in MLB Betting Hey, VegasVandal I don't do parlays, but if I were to do one, I think yours looks pretty good. I like the Cards tonight--even at a buck-fifty. Best of luck! View Post \| View Thread	VegasVandal	20	May 17, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to STL as underdogs?!? in MLB Betting Looks like the majority here are going with the Cards. Good luck to you all! Hey, the ballgame can go either way, obviously. Relatively cool weather at Progressive should keep it interesting. (Just a guess, but I think those who like Cleveland are those who don't like Lynn in an AL stadium. He has one advantage in that the Tribe has never seen him, but if he escapes unscathed through the lineup the first time around, the ballgame will likely hinge on how Cleveland adjusts to him the second time around.) View Post \| View Thread	FYL706	33	May 12, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to STL as underdogs?!? in MLB Betting Actually, it'd be a alight surprise if the Cardinals were favored in this spot. In fact, the -120 current line looks a bit generous. Cleveland should be favored by more. Not a good game to bet. View Post \| View Thread	FYL706	33	May 12, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Royals @ Rays July 7 in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by SickDaddyJ: Taking Over 3.5 1st 5 and Over 7. Best of luck to you. If I had to make a totals play, I'd go the under. But I don't and I won't. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	6	July 07, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Royals @ Rays July 7 in MLB Betting As I write this, Tampa is a slight favorite at -118 here. I like them at this price. I've written in the past about Jake Odorizzi, calling him a "future ace." Of course, I'm talking a few years into the future, but his gains this year have been significant. As expected, his K rate has been in decline; this is something he has experienced at every level of pro ball. But at each level, the Ks have made a partial comeback as his control increases. His surface ERA of 4.18 is in part driven by bad luck, as he's had a 34% hit rate against. (Put another way, his expected ERA is closer to 3.75.) The long fly has been his problem all year, and his home-away splits show that he's particularly vulnerable on the road. Tonight he pitches at pitcher-friendly Tropicana. KC's Shields might be better called "Regular Game James" as he's been anything but Big over the past month or so. But somewhere underneath lies the same talented pitcher we've seen over the past several years. Shield's main problem has been the homer--specifically, with runners on base, over a fifth of all flies hit against him are homers. That's an extraordinary rate, one that won't continue for long. His former home park should help, but suddenly-hot Tampa may delay the regression. Should be a good game to watch. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	6	July 07, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Braves @ Astros June 24 in MLB Betting I haven't been much good at picking totals (see my record for proof), but it's hard not to like OVER the 8.5 here. The slumbering Braves bats seem to have awakened over the past week or so, and today they get an AL park (Gattis is in as DH and Laird will be catching) and a hittable pitcher in Feldman. The Astros likewise get a still-overrated and hittable pitcher in Aaron Harang, who appears to have been unlucky in giving up 8 ER in his last outing. But as I've warned folks here of Harang's impending correction, he had been twice as lucky early on in the season. Sure, he may correct himself and pitch a CG shutout, but that's about as statistically likely as his hitting a homer today. What's different about Harang? For one thing, his K/9 is down from nearly 9 a month ago to just 5.8 over the past 30 days. That's more balls in play--increasingly in the form of linedrives (15% to 24%). Instead of the surface ERAs on these two pitchers, read the expected ERAs which hover over 4. And the numbers don't figure to get prettier as the season rolls along. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	1	June 24, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to White Sox @ Orioles June 23 in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by JOE8877: I too bit on the small fave line on Sale in this one... That's the smart play, I think. Sale was at just -118 when I wrote this up. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	12	June 23, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to White Sox @ Orioles June 23 in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by earthWake: Chris Sale is the closest thing I've seen to Randy Johnson in his prime You're in good company. That's exactly what Mike Krukow (Giants' TV analyst and former MLB pitcher) said during their game against the Sox last week. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	12	June 23, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic White Sox @ Orioles June 23 in MLB Betting Odds are near even on the board as I write this, and there a couple of likely reasons why: Sale was not sharp in his last outing against the Giants and the Sox aren't hitting well, having been swept by the Twins. Sale: It's worth noting that Sale's hit rate was nearly 50% vs the Giants--a very unlucky rate. Small sample size? Of course. So was the game. What's hidden in the surface stats is that Sale has actually improved over the past month, hard as that might be to believe. He's walking fewer batters than he ever has, and he's striking out more, which is fully backed by an 18% swinging K rate. This guy is as good as they get. Markakis will be the lone LHB today, as Chris Davis doesn't figure to start since he can't hit Sale. That's not a problem for the CWS pitcher; but his offense might be against a pretty good W. Chen, who's been walking fewer batters lately and getting more groundball outs. His struggles against lefties still poses a problem, but the Sox start just a pair today in Eaton and Gillaspie. To win this game the Orioles will have to match the Giants in hit% and hold the Sox to fewer than 4 runs. I can see the latter happening more than the homer. The most obvious danger, of course, is that Sale won't be the only Sox pitcher. Still, given the even money, I have to take Chicago. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	12	June 23, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Tigers @ Indians June 21 in MLB Betting I would imagine a significant majority will like the Tigers here, although I'm not sure if it's more Verlander pitching or Miggy & Co. hitting. If the former, I can't see it. Verlander just hasn't been very good, and he's given us nothing to think he'll change course today or anytime soon. In fact, he could get worse. Here's why: Look at his K/9: It's 6.4 on the year and 5.7 over the past month. Then check his velocity. Sure enough, it's dropped (see fangraphs), forcing him to paint corners or to rely more on secondary pitches. He's not doing a good job at either. He hasn't been unlucky; he's fully earned that high ERA. But is Cleveland's Trevor Bauer any better this year? Not by much; but in Bauer we have a pitcher who is on the upswing, except in the Walks category. He has been otherwise a bit unlucky, particularly in hit rate against. Cleveland's bats aren't as hot as they were last week, but they can do damage to a Verlander sporting mediocre skills. The Tiger bats can hurt pretty much pitcher not named Sale. This game is pretty much a toss-up, but I do like the Indians in this spot. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	1	June 21, 2014 View Post \| View Thread

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Entries	Thread Author	Posts	Activity
replied to Dodgers @ Rangers June 16 in MLB Betting I don't recall the last time I saw such fortunate numbers for a pitcher to begin his season. Of course, regression doesn't have to occur in a single game or over x starts, but Gonzalez will regress. Here's his AAA (Round Rock) surface line--admittedly a small sample of just 8 games, but more in line with his actual skills: 3-5, 43.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 5.4 K/9, .275 oppBA. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	7	June 16, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Dodgers @ Rangers June 16 in MLB Betting Added note (for readers in general): It's rarely a good idea to change a selection you really like based on the opinion of someone else. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	7	June 16, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Dodgers @ Rangers June 16 in MLB Betting Hey, TreyInventor Hadn't really thought of a score, but in a hitter-friendly park, it does help both pitchers that they give up more gounders than flyballs--Anderson especially. If I have to guess, and if Chi Chi's regression is, say, an avg of 3% across the board, I'd think 5 or 6 runs for the Dodgers alone. (The ML will likely continue moving in favor of Texas, by the way, but the total will likely remain the same.) View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	7	June 16, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Dodgers @ Rangers June 16 in MLB Betting The luckiest pitcher in all of baseball? Chi Chi Gonzalez, hands down. Granted, this guy has the raw potential to be very good some day (the Rangers didn't make him their 1st pick in 2013 for his looks), but, for now, he's smoke and mirrors. ERA is a deceiving stat for many reasons, so what's driving Chi Chi's? Luck--all across the board. He has a hit rate of just 20% and a strand rate of 96%. His command has been below average and his swinging strike rate is a mere 7%. In short, his expected ERA is near 5. Right now, he's a two-pitch pitcher (a 92+ fastball and a good slider), as he works to gain better control over his change and curve. He and the Rangers will be opposing Brett Anderson today, a pitcher with decent skills who could have been a pitcher with great skills had not injuries interrupted growth. Still, the Dodgers could do much worse. Anderson figures to continue going pretty much as he has been this season--unless he's injured again. The Dodgers at the current -130 appear to not present great value, but the thought of even the slightest regression for Chi Chi tells me otherwise. Dodgers to win. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	7	June 16, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Nats @ Rays June 15 in MLB Betting Again, just to document, although plays can be readily accessed via my Covers blog. Final: Rays 6, Nats 1. W: Ramirez L: Gonzalez Total record in posted plays: 23-7 W-L doesn't mean much in baseball, but all are assumed to be ML; moreover, I look for value, so many underdogs; if favorites, usually only slight ones View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	3	June 15, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Nats @ Rays June 15 in MLB Betting As of now, the Rays are slight favorites at -113. Erasmo Ramirez takes the mound for the Rays tonight, and he comes under the "What have you done for me lately?" dept. In Ramirez's case, the answer is "plenty". Nevermind that sub-2 ERA over his last three starts. Chi Chi Gonzalez of the Rangers, for example, has posted far superior surface stats, but his are the result of bald luck, not skills. What's different about Ramirez's seemingly new-found skills? The first thing that jumps out is his swinging K rate of 15% over the past three outings. That's Scherzer territory, folks. Moreover, Ramirez had been the victim of a very low strand rate of just 58% this season, and as that has headed north, his expected ERA (xERA) has gone downward, and now sits at 1.5 runs (!) below his surface ERA. And always possessed with good command, he's also allowed just 2 BBs since May 30. Of course, the knock on Erasmo is that he's basically a 5 IP guy. But with the likes of Jepsen, Boxberger, and McGee behind him, I look for a solid Rays outing. Washington's Gio Gonzalez is no stranger to bad luck, either, as his xERA sits at a full run below the surface ERA. For Gio, too, the culprit has been a horrible strand rate. Especially given that his velocity has remained at a constant 92 MPH all season, his future looks much better than his past. That said, I still like the Rays and their pitching tonight. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	3	June 15, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Astros @ ChiSox Jue 9 in MLB Betting Just to document (since I never have followed up on any post). Final: Sox 4, Astros 2. W: Rodon L: Keuchel. Total record in blog posts: 22-7 (Easy to research by date). W-L doesn't mean much in baseball, but all are assumed to be ML; moreover, I always look for value, so many underdogs; if favorites, usually only slight ones. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	2	June 10, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Astros @ ChiSox Jue 9 in MLB Betting The White Sox- Astros tonight presents a "value" play, I think. Over a year ago, before Dallas Keuchel was much known, I posted here (in my blog entries, maybe) basically that this guy was for real, with a solid skills set.. I still think he's solid, but he's also been the luckiest pitcher in MLB this season. He's been fortunate with a very low hit % and strand %, for beginners. These rates are simply unsustainable. True, regression doesn't happen in a single game, and Keuchel is still an extreme groundball pitcher. which especially helpful at Cellular. ( Keuchel also has an unsustainable fly/homer rate.) But can the Astros score enough runs to cover Keuchel? Maybe--if they can get enough balls into play. Rodon is a rookie pitcher and Houston's already seen this guy. But the first-rounder lefty is one to watch over the next couple of years: He throws hard and has an evil slider. His command is a work-in-progress, though, and he lacks another pitch. Still, I'll take the Sox here. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	2	June 09, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to "Team Experts" for covers are 16 - 1 on Pirates so I put my $$ on the other team in MLB Betting I'm no covers expert, but there is some value in the Brewers tonight. Burnett has been relying on more than just a little luck this season, as his xERA is well above his surface ERA. View Post \| View Thread	magiccarpetride	4	June 08, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to **Crazy Stat Cole Hamels is 14-0 against the Reds in MLB Betting** Quote Originally Posted by Big_Hersch: He has never lost against the Reds in his career! Not only that when he pitches, the team out scores the Reds by 5 runs a game. There last game was won by one run. In his career he has beat the Reds by one run in 5 games. I do not know if we can fade that. What does everyone think? Since you asked: Cole's record vs Cincy since--what, 2006?--makes little difference. I realize bettors look for so-called trends, but unless the Reds have had virtually the same lineup over the past 8 years (and Philly, for that matter), this stat is meaningless. View Post \| View Thread	Big_Hersch	34	June 08, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Sunday Night MLB in MLB Betting Hey, VegasVandal I don't do parlays, but if I were to do one, I think yours looks pretty good. I like the Cards tonight--even at a buck-fifty. Best of luck! View Post \| View Thread	VegasVandal	20	May 17, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to STL as underdogs?!? in MLB Betting Looks like the majority here are going with the Cards. Good luck to you all! Hey, the ballgame can go either way, obviously. Relatively cool weather at Progressive should keep it interesting. (Just a guess, but I think those who like Cleveland are those who don't like Lynn in an AL stadium. He has one advantage in that the Tribe has never seen him, but if he escapes unscathed through the lineup the first time around, the ballgame will likely hinge on how Cleveland adjusts to him the second time around.) View Post \| View Thread	FYL706	33	May 12, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to STL as underdogs?!? in MLB Betting Actually, it'd be a alight surprise if the Cardinals were favored in this spot. In fact, the -120 current line looks a bit generous. Cleveland should be favored by more. Not a good game to bet. View Post \| View Thread	FYL706	33	May 12, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Royals @ Rays July 7 in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by SickDaddyJ: Taking Over 3.5 1st 5 and Over 7. Best of luck to you. If I had to make a totals play, I'd go the under. But I don't and I won't. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	6	July 07, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Royals @ Rays July 7 in MLB Betting As I write this, Tampa is a slight favorite at -118 here. I like them at this price. I've written in the past about Jake Odorizzi, calling him a "future ace." Of course, I'm talking a few years into the future, but his gains this year have been significant. As expected, his K rate has been in decline; this is something he has experienced at every level of pro ball. But at each level, the Ks have made a partial comeback as his control increases. His surface ERA of 4.18 is in part driven by bad luck, as he's had a 34% hit rate against. (Put another way, his expected ERA is closer to 3.75.) The long fly has been his problem all year, and his home-away splits show that he's particularly vulnerable on the road. Tonight he pitches at pitcher-friendly Tropicana. KC's Shields might be better called "Regular Game James" as he's been anything but Big over the past month or so. But somewhere underneath lies the same talented pitcher we've seen over the past several years. Shield's main problem has been the homer--specifically, with runners on base, over a fifth of all flies hit against him are homers. That's an extraordinary rate, one that won't continue for long. His former home park should help, but suddenly-hot Tampa may delay the regression. Should be a good game to watch. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	6	July 07, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Braves @ Astros June 24 in MLB Betting I haven't been much good at picking totals (see my record for proof), but it's hard not to like OVER the 8.5 here. The slumbering Braves bats seem to have awakened over the past week or so, and today they get an AL park (Gattis is in as DH and Laird will be catching) and a hittable pitcher in Feldman. The Astros likewise get a still-overrated and hittable pitcher in Aaron Harang, who appears to have been unlucky in giving up 8 ER in his last outing. But as I've warned folks here of Harang's impending correction, he had been twice as lucky early on in the season. Sure, he may correct himself and pitch a CG shutout, but that's about as statistically likely as his hitting a homer today. What's different about Harang? For one thing, his K/9 is down from nearly 9 a month ago to just 5.8 over the past 30 days. That's more balls in play--increasingly in the form of linedrives (15% to 24%). Instead of the surface ERAs on these two pitchers, read the expected ERAs which hover over 4. And the numbers don't figure to get prettier as the season rolls along. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	1	June 24, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to White Sox @ Orioles June 23 in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by JOE8877: I too bit on the small fave line on Sale in this one... That's the smart play, I think. Sale was at just -118 when I wrote this up. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	12	June 23, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to White Sox @ Orioles June 23 in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by earthWake: Chris Sale is the closest thing I've seen to Randy Johnson in his prime You're in good company. That's exactly what Mike Krukow (Giants' TV analyst and former MLB pitcher) said during their game against the Sox last week. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	12	June 23, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic White Sox @ Orioles June 23 in MLB Betting Odds are near even on the board as I write this, and there a couple of likely reasons why: Sale was not sharp in his last outing against the Giants and the Sox aren't hitting well, having been swept by the Twins. Sale: It's worth noting that Sale's hit rate was nearly 50% vs the Giants--a very unlucky rate. Small sample size? Of course. So was the game. What's hidden in the surface stats is that Sale has actually improved over the past month, hard as that might be to believe. He's walking fewer batters than he ever has, and he's striking out more, which is fully backed by an 18% swinging K rate. This guy is as good as they get. Markakis will be the lone LHB today, as Chris Davis doesn't figure to start since he can't hit Sale. That's not a problem for the CWS pitcher; but his offense might be against a pretty good W. Chen, who's been walking fewer batters lately and getting more groundball outs. His struggles against lefties still poses a problem, but the Sox start just a pair today in Eaton and Gillaspie. To win this game the Orioles will have to match the Giants in hit% and hold the Sox to fewer than 4 runs. I can see the latter happening more than the homer. The most obvious danger, of course, is that Sale won't be the only Sox pitcher. Still, given the even money, I have to take Chicago. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	12	June 23, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Tigers @ Indians June 21 in MLB Betting I would imagine a significant majority will like the Tigers here, although I'm not sure if it's more Verlander pitching or Miggy & Co. hitting. If the former, I can't see it. Verlander just hasn't been very good, and he's given us nothing to think he'll change course today or anytime soon. In fact, he could get worse. Here's why: Look at his K/9: It's 6.4 on the year and 5.7 over the past month. Then check his velocity. Sure enough, it's dropped (see fangraphs), forcing him to paint corners or to rely more on secondary pitches. He's not doing a good job at either. He hasn't been unlucky; he's fully earned that high ERA. But is Cleveland's Trevor Bauer any better this year? Not by much; but in Bauer we have a pitcher who is on the upswing, except in the Walks category. He has been otherwise a bit unlucky, particularly in hit rate against. Cleveland's bats aren't as hot as they were last week, but they can do damage to a Verlander sporting mediocre skills. The Tiger bats can hurt pretty much pitcher not named Sale. This game is pretty much a toss-up, but I do like the Indians in this spot. View Post \| View Thread	RedPumpkin	1	June 21, 2014 View Post \| View Thread

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