ryboy2222

Broncos have Jeudy back, which I think helps Bridgewater alot.  Broncos have two good running backs, and a better D than Philly.  For me it's the Broncos or a no play, or tease the broncos and get more points. 

Why not use the Colts? That would be my pick if I were in your spot.

I would take the Colts, but i used them last week.  I chose to use them last week, because I knew I could use the Bills this week.  Bills lost last week so I expect a huge bounce back this week.  I think this is a good spot for the colts too, Jags are elated after their win over the Bills last week. The game could be a little closer than some think, but I could see the colts up by two scores most of the game.

I have the Cowboys left too, but I'm saving them for week 12 at home against the Raiders. Looking ahead to week 12, that's going to be a defining week in Survivor.

Week 12 options for me would be Bears at Lions, Cowboys at home vs Raiders, Giants at home Vs Eagles, Falcons on the road at Jaguars. Those are the only viable options for me I think.  How about you?

One more teaser for today. 

8 point teaser +100 1 unit 

Denver +17.5, Philly +9 Minnesota +15

So you guys know why betting is hard?

I live in the Indy area and Im a Colts fan. I took the colts for my week 9 survivor pick, and had two units on -10, plus about 3 other units total teased down with other teasers.

I knew the colts would easily handle the Jets and this was a must win game, plus prime time which can be rare for the Colts. 

Then the back door cover almost happened. You can be on the right side of a game and everything go your way and pick the right side of the spread, and still easily lose the bet in the last few minutes.

......however if those two teams were to play again next Thursday in the same place and situation, I would take the Colts -10 again. A glutton for punishment I guess.

@mrusso

 Great point, but that’s too much to type for the title 

@Ascetic

 Cheers and success this week!

@CoreyPaus

 I feel comfortable taking the Patriots and giving them more than a field goal on points. Panthers are getting McCaffery back, but Bellichick knows how to take away a teams best player.

@Kpcinco

 I agree, there is always a chance and I imagine it will be a close game. I think Lhilly can be a sneaky team when they are clicking and have their moments. I just like the Chargers in this spot and a big fan of Herbert.

I do decent in the NFL, I’ll start tracking my plays. 1 unit = $1000

0-0 YTD

Chargers -1.5........1.1 to win 1

8 point teaser (FanDuel) +100

Patriots +4.5, Browns +10.5, Rams +1

........1 unit to win 1.

The Chargers have been brought back down to earth the last two games, I think this is a good spot for them to get back to form. Herbert > Hurts and Eckeler, Allen, Williams, Bosa are better playmakers than the Eagles have.

Eagles coming off an easy shellacking they put on the Jags last week, good let down spot.

Browns revenge game against Bengals this week, should stay close.

Darnold always sees ghosts against BB and the Patriots, Panthers are not playing great right now and Patriots are over-achieving based off their roster.

good luck!

 Betting on Minnesota is not for the faint of heart. They are awful at closing out games and play horrible bend but don’t break defense when they get a lead.

If Dak plays or not. I love getting Dallas and buying it to 3 points. This should be a close game, but Minnesota cannot close out a game.

@ryboy2222

 Well shoot, I'm in Indiana and I know know only a few states has draftkings available.  So maybe the book you use offers winning margins as well.

Here is what I would do.  Draftkings has winning margin odds. I would use 1000$ as hedge money.  Steelers to win by winning margin 13-18 is +460.  I would pout 600 on that to win 2700$.  Then 19-24 is +750 and I would put $300 on that to pay out $2250.  25-30 is plus 1500, so you could throw 100 on that for 1500$.

This way you would be covered to win something all the way to a 30 point loss.  I think Washington easily hangs within 14, but I would at least guarantee myself 2-3k this way just in case.

Oh and I forgot to mention all the damn flopping and lack of defense being played, or allowed to be played.  The game is geared towards the offense and its hard to be a good defender without fouling out.  An offensive player can force their way to the basket and usually gets some type of call. Watching players like Harden and Chris Paul are exhausting, so much flopping and trying to be crafty instead of just playing the game. 

A defender has to:

Be outside of the painted circle.

Jump straight up and down.

Remain straight up and down even if the offensive player runs full speed and collides into the defenders midsection.

Free agency and lack of team loyalty is just exhausting and can turn lots of people off. My biggest thing is that I watch sports for an escape from the real world.  if i wanted to hear about politics and social views, i would turn on the news.  Everyone has different opinions in life, and we can all use social media or other means to express them if we choose too. However, none of of can use our workplace/employer to express these views, or we can be terminated. Yet, these athletes choose to force their opinions and views onto us, when I just want to tune in to watch a damn game and not hear about anything other than sports and the game.

Adding Hofstra -1.

Adding a two team/4 point teaser.

Wake Forest +6

UNC -.5.

Nice plays KS, 3-1 is a great day.  It takes a lot of patience to actually cap these small school games, and time as well. Both I don't have much of right now! Look forward to your picks!

Well damn lost the last two picks. Tulsa couldn't even hang within 10, and Illinois couldn't hold a big lead.  Regression was inevitable.

7-2 on posted plays.

Two plays for tomorrow that I want to get in early, I don't see the line moving my way. I just placed the wagers.

Wake Forest -1

North Carolina -3.5

Not a ton of games I'm comfortable playing straight up today.  I just made a play on Illinois -3, so that will be a play.  Going throw in a teaser as well.

Two picks:

Illinois -3

4 point teaser / 2 teams +114 draft kings

Michigan St -2.5 Izzo in March, at home, I'm comfortable going down under three points.

Tulsa + 11.5  Two inconsistent teams in Wichita St and Tulsa. Tulsa can put up points and keep it close.

Good luck to us.

All of my plays are posted if you read the full thread, may not be the easiest format to read, but they are there.  Good catch!  I may have been drinking a little when I was rambling. When Chris Duhon hit that shot, the score went from 79-76 to 79-78. Wish I could go edit that!