Sadburger

Sadburger
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replied to How much historical proof would you want... (NFL ATS)
in Systems & Strategies
Definitely looks like something has gone awry with the import of data. Obviously that completely invalidates the historical analysis. I knew it was performing too good to be true. I'll correct the mistake and start from scratch. 
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Sadburger 11
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replied to How much historical proof would you want... (NFL ATS)
in Systems & Strategies
Past six season results, using spread information found from the sun4cast spread sheet (search sun4cast nfl and you'll find it). I can't personally verify the spreads on this sheet, but it is all I have to work with currently.

Bets range between 1 and 3 Units depending on confidence of the pick.
2008 - 158-49-5 (75%), +237.7 Units
2009 - 174-21-2 (84%), +329.1 Units
2010 - 144-42-11 (73%), +222.5 Units
2011 - 149-39-4 (78%), +255.1 Units
2012 - 155-43-4 (77%), +240.3 Units
2013 - 156-32-3 (82%), +274.5 Units

2014 Season so far
Week 1 10-3, +18.6 4U:
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) - Play: 3U on Seattle Seahawks - Result: Won 2.73 units
Minnesota Vikings @ St Louis Rams (+3.5) - Play: 3U on St Louis Rams - Result: Lost -3.00 units
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5) - Play: 3U on Pittsburgh Steelers - Result: Won 2.73 units
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles (+10.5) - Play: 3U on Philadelphia Eagles - Result: Won 2.73 units
Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets (+5.5) - Play: 2U on New York Jets - Result: Won 1.82 units
Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears (+7.5) - Play: 3U on Chicago Bears - Result: Won 2.73 units
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) - Play: 1U on Kansas City Chiefs - Result: Lost -1.00 units
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (-4.5) - Play: 1U on New England Patriots - Result: Lost -1.00 units
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) - Play: 1U on Carolina Panthers - Result: Won 0.91 units
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) - Play: 3U on San Francisco 49ers - Result: Won 2.73 units
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (+7.5) - Play: 3U on Denver Broncos - Result: Won 2.73 units
New York Giants @ Detroit Lions (+6.5) - Play: 3U on Detroit Lions - Result: Won 2.73 units
San Diego Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) - Play: 2U on Arizona Cardinals - Result: Won 1.82 units 

Week 2 8-3, +8.64U:
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers (+3.5) - Play: 3U on Carolina Panthers - Result: Won 2.73 units
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-1.5) - Play: 1U on Buffalo Bills - Result: Won 0.91 units
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Washington Redskins (+6.5) - Play: 1U on Washington Redskins - Result: Won 0.91 units
Dallas Cowboys @ Tennessee Titans (+4.5) - Play: 1U on Tennessee Titans - Result: Lost -1.00 units
New England Patriots @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) - Play: 1U on New England Patriots - Result: Won 0.91 units
Atlanta Falcons @ Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) - Play: 3U on Cincinnati Bengals - Result: Won 2.73 units
St Louis Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) - Play: 1U on Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Result: Won 0.91 units
Seattle Seahawks @ San Diego Chargers (-6.5) - Play: 1U on Seattle Seahawks - Result: Lost -1.00 units
New York Jets @ Green Bay Packers (+8.5) - Play: 3U on Green Bay Packers - Result: Won 2.73 units
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (+13.5) - Play: 2U on Denver Broncos - Result: Won 1.82 units
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers (+7.5) - Play: 3U on San Francisco 49ers - Result: Lost -3.00 units

Week 3 4-4, +2.09 U
Dallas Cowboys @ St Louis Rams (0.0) - Play: 1U on St Louis Rams - Result: Lost -1.00 units
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) - Play: 3U on Philadelphia Eagles - Result: Lost -3.00 units
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints (-10.0) - Play: 3U on New Orleans Saints - Result: Won 2.73 units
Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) - Play: 3U on Cincinnati Bengals - Result: Won 2.73 units
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (-2.0) - Play: 2U on Detroit Lions - Result: Won 1.82 units
Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins (-4.0) - Play: 2U on Kansas City Chiefs - Result: Won 1.82 units
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Carolina Panthers (-3.5) - Play: 2U on Carolina Panthers - Result: Lost -2.00 units
Chicago Bears @ New York Jets (-3.0) - Play: 1U on New York Jets - Result: Lost -1.00 units

Week 4 linked above. I'll keep this thread updated with results as the season progresses. 
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Sadburger 11
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replied to How much historical proof would you want... (NFL ATS)
in Systems & Strategies
Quote Originally Posted by d_opie:

will you be posting your picks on this thread for the rest of the season?


Putting the picks up in the NFL Betting forum. This weeks are here:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101956744

Currently 22-10 (69%) for the season, up 29.4 units. I'm betting exactly as the algorithm picks, except I'm also running some parlays with the picks as well. 
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Sadburger 11
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created a topic How much historical proof would you want... (NFL ATS)
in Systems & Strategies
How much historical proof would you want before you trusted a system for picking NFL winners against the spread? 

I've been working on several mathematical models for picking winners. Not using any regression techniques -- ie not trying to look at the existing data and fit a model to it, rather developing a model and then running it against historical NFL data to test how well it does season after season. 

This season I've started betting my highest performing algorithm, and although it is early in the season still it is doing well. I've ran historical data from every season 1995 up and the algorithm has done very well (75+% ATS). 

What would it take to convince you on a mathematical model? Obviously if this year goes well, with me actually betting the algorithm live, and performs up to its historical levels that will make me a believer!
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Sadburger 11
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replied to Advice for placing a large wager in Vegas
in NFL Betting
You can send me the money -- I'll definitely place your bet for you...
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hoffstra 67
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created a topic Betting college vs nfl
in College Football
Hey there,

I'm been doing NFL betting, but haven't really looked into college ball much. Anybody doing both have any advice or "gotchas" to lookout for if I wanted to get started on college? Obviously there are a lot more mismatches, I see the huge lines when I'm at the sportsbook. 

What say you?
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Sadburger 3
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replied to Microsoft Secuirty Essentials
in Technology
If you are using Windows XP, you are not protected regardless of whatever antivirus/antimalware solution so you are using. XP is old and has reached end-of-life, and isn't getting anymore patches. There are already some exploits in the wild that will never be patched -- bite the bullet and upgrade. Windows 7 is quite nice Spend $200 and add a Solid State Harddrive and some extra memory and it will run like a champ. 
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easymoney8474 7
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replied to Anyone know about PGP for email encryption?
in Technology
Not to mention their needs to be a secure, easy way to exchange public keys with folks. 
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bafongue1 3
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replied to Anyone know about PGP for email encryption?
in Technology
Quote Originally Posted by bafongue1:

I need a PGP personal? and public how would I go about getting one to encrypt my emails any help would be apreciated



The biggest problem with email encryption is that it isn't something you can implement on your own. To send an encrypted email to someone, THEY need to have a private/public key, and you encrypt the message with their public key. Then, they can decrypt it with their private key and read the message. 

That is why it isn't widely adopted yet -- you need buy-in from a lot of people to get real value from it. 
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bafongue1 3
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replied to Why are Packers favs?
in NFL Betting
Bears opened as favorite but the line changed quick. I've got the bears taking this easy, so I'm happy with it!
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TreyInventor 22
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replied to Parlay: Tell me what you think the weak link is.
in NFL Betting
Not huge on the Colts, but Atlanta at -3 is the scary one there in my opinion. Vikings +3 is a strong pick for me. 

Good luck!
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McGin83 5
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replied to WEEK 4 REACTION, THOUGHTS, LEANS AND PLAYS
in NFL Betting
I'm with you on Vikings and Cowboys, but Titans and Bills too close to for me to get in on them. 

Feeling fantastic with the Bears at +1.5 now also. 
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FeedMeCappers 20
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created a topic Week 4 Picks (YTD: 22-10, +29.4 units)
in NFL Betting
After a really nice start to the year, last week was a bit disappointing, going 4/8 +2.1 units.

Here are my picks for the week:
Bears +1.5 3 Units
Jets +1.5 1 Unit 
Steelers -7.5 3 Units
Eagles +4.5 1 Unit
Vikings +3 2 Units
Cowboys +3 2 Units
Patriots +4 1 Unit

GL Everyone!
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Sadburger 3
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created a topic Intro and season to date picks
in NFL Betting
Hey there everyone. Just registered for the forum, been reading for a while. Started doing some NFL betting this year using a strictly mathematical algorithm that I developed, and wanted to have some place to post about it and share the results. My bet varies between 1 and 3 units based on the confidence of the picks, and I am strictly betting NFL spreads. I'll post my picks every Thursday evening after I visit the casino and place my bets (I'm in Las Vegas).

Here is how I am doing so far this year:
Week 1: 10/13 (76.9%) +18.6 Units
Week 2: 8/11 (72.7%) +8.65 Units
Week 3: 4/8 (50%) +2.1 Units

Season to Date: 22/32 (68.8%) +29.4 Units

How do you guys feel about the historical data available at the sun4cast site? (I don't think I'm allowed to post a link to it). I trust the scores to be correct, but don't know about the spreads and lines. I used that data for historical purposes when trying out different iterations of my algorithms, but I've heard it may not be super accurate.
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Sadburger 1
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