scrappyb

Betonline and Bookmaker both have 32-1

Respect ?? 

Disgusting call. Samford was robbed. 

SDSU/NM under…never a doubt. 

Kyle Juszczk first TD 37-1

Ji'Ayir Brown most tackles/assits 40-1

Context: I'm an American that appreciates a good footy match but I don't consider myself a huge soccer fan. That said, I'm super pumped to see this caliber of a match at Wembley tomorrow. Feels like a bucket list experience. Would love to hear the covers community takes on this game! I'd like to put in a small wager in to spice things up and any color you soccer punters offer up will give me a greater appreciation for the context/dynamics of the match. Cheers! 

Really great stuff, Van. Especially interesting re: 2 being a more prolific number. I wonder if the new math on 2 hitting more frequently takes some of the value out of Wong teasers when you are teasing down a favorite from 8.5 to 2.5. 

Stafford OVER 2.5 carries/Burrow OVER 2.5 carries 

2 units to win 4.66

My thinking is thus:

- QBs are more willing to run the football (put their body on the line) in the Super Bowl. 

- Stafford: Case in point, we already see Stafford running with the football much more in the playoffs (1.88 carries in regular season vs 6,4,5 so far in the playoffs). This is the game of his life and he knows it -- I don't he's gonna hold back. 

- Burrow: (2.35 carries in the regular season vs 2,2,5 so far in the playoffs). Rams should disrupt the pocket and I think Burrow uses his legs to scramble a couple times to move the chains. 

- Let's not forget taking a knee at the end of a half/game counts. 

- A near "sack" where the QB actually gains a nominal half or full yard counts as a carry. 

This parlay prop is not a slam dunk but at +233 I'm taking a shot at it. 

GL and enjoy the game 

As always, great write-up, Vanzack. Is your projected score based on your simulations? If it is, it's a solid data point in the direction of line value to the over. 

I have a 3 team parlay alive going into tonight with only Arizona +4 left. $100 to win 615. Should I hedge or let it ride? If so, how would you do it? There is an added bonus that I can get Rams -3 (-115) or Rams ml -168, as of the time I write this. 

FWIW, I don’t pay my rent with betting but I do take it very seriously. Could I just let ride to enjoy the sweat? — sure! But I’m curious what “sharp” move would be here. Thanks Covers community for the input. 

Outstanding post/thread, Van. We're mostly in agreement here. I've already bet on the Bills, 9ers, Cards. My only disagreement is that I lean Cincinnati. Are you concerned the Raiders just played a 5 quarter dog-fight with their rival 5.5 days before this game is played. Then they have to fly across the country to play in the freezing cold weather at, what would be about 10:30am, West Coast time. Feels like a bad spot. The reason I'm hesitating to bet Cincy though is that the Raiders played a more difficult SOS (strength of schedule) and dogs with a better SOS in the wild card round have historically done incredibly well (mid 60% I believe, sorry I don't have the stat on hand). 

i took young under 317.5 pass yards (-114). Cincy’s strength is their secondary and I think Bama runs the ball a lot in this spot. young won’t need to chuck for 300+ imho

I love the narrative. I'm on the same play.

I love the narrative. I'm on the same play.

I'm assuming you mean OVER bc of the juice (under would be around +120) and you mentioned in a different thread you see both teams getting to 2 goals.

How did you get +3?  I was refreshing like a bastard and only got +2 -105

Love Wofford and Cuse too.  GL Train

Final 4: Zags, MSU, Virginia, UNC

Not a lot of love for the Zags on the forum.  I really think they could win it all this year.  But TT scares me in E8.

Brackets game strategy note: I have two brackets in a pool of 100.  I'm picking Duke to miss the final 4 (MSU instead) in both.  I think Duke could stumble and likely half the field would be boxed out of the pool.  As an added bonus I get to root against Duke.  It's risk but the numbers support it from a game theory standpoint.

Love to hear more bracket plays from everyone...

Not hedging my 7-1 NFC Champ preseason bet.  I think the Saints are the far better team. 

I took KC -3 -105.

I hate fading LC.  I have a lot of respect.

GL, to everyone

Bummed I didn't see this in time.  Good luck guys.  I'll likely see you in CMJohnson's contest this year.

I feel like the golf covers thread is usually pretty light.  Let's get some more betting banter going this season!  Post those angles, stats, narratives, stories, thoughts, picks, etc!