SharpStatsGuy

Purdy was never going to get it done. His injury had 0 to do with the outcome. The Eagles literally dominate every facet of the game. Purdy is lucky he got out of there with only a shoulder injury. He was scared from the moment the plane landed in Philly 

The amount of whining is hilarious. 49ers were never that good. They beat up on a bunch of average teams and never left California. Purdy was a fluke, Shanahan is the most overrated coach of all time. His career record is 53–48 and he’s talked about like he’s Lombardi. He’s choked in every big moment of his career. Eagles absolutely manhandled them today. It wasn’t close from beginning to end. Move on and stop crying 

Eagles are by far the better team they are built to win a SB. Stop with the excuses. 

I respect you Van but this is desperate 

49ers clearly the more physical team 

This aged well

Completely accurate. So much Eagles disrespect. Purdy’s run comes to an end today. GL 

The shortest distance (air line) between SFO and PHL is 2,515.16 mi (4,047.75 km).

Thanks for stopping by 

Adding….

on the Eagles as well. GL 

Always love to see clowns come on covers with a superiority complex, attacking others handicapping because they can’t muster an original thought of their own. It’s actually pretty comical. Thank you for blessing us with your presence Josh. The fact that you now “know who to back” based on a writeup from someone you never met should tell us all we need to know about what you bring to the table. 

We get it buddy, you’re one of those insufferable know-it-alls who reads 2.5 books a year and now lectures everyone in your life about what it takes to be successful. After reading 2 paragraphs of your work, there is no doubt in my mind that the majority of people who have ever met you have rolled their eyes behind your back within the first 5 minutes of you opening your mouth. But then again, I’m just a shaky rookie capper trying to figure out what a point spread is so what do I know!  

Thanks for the laughs Josh, since you probably don’t understand sarcasm, I just want to thank you again for gifting us all with your brilliance. Take care friend. 

@ActionMagnet

Facts 

During the 49ers win streak, 9 of 12 games were in California

49ers haven’t left the west coast since week 6.

49ers played 2 early games in different time zones this season and lost both

There’s a reason they are underdogs. It’s because they are going to lose 

The Eagles are vulnerable against the run but the 49ers can’t win this game by being one dimensional. Purdy will have to make plays at some point and I just don’t think he can in this environment. Eagles will blitz him all day long on passing downs and have good enough corners to play man to man without getting burned. Very few rookies can handle heavy pressure and a hostile environment, Purdy is not ready for what he will see. Unless Shanahan coaches the best game of his life, it’s hard to see the 49ers overcoming such a deficiency at QB. 27-16 type of game in my opinion. Not a blowout but a comfortable win for the Eagles. 

@jflydaddy

I don’t work for a sportsbook but I have a feeling your numbers are off by about 45% or so. 

Offensive firepower also is a big advantage for the Eagles. The 49ers just put up a measly 19 pts at home against a Cowboys team with a pretty good defense. This includes 0 TD passes from Purdy. The Eagles on the other hand put up 60 points total against the same Cowboys in 2 meetings this year. That includes 34 from Minshew when Hurts was injured. The Eagles average 28.6 points per game which is the 2nd most in the NFL. This includes 28 ppg at home. The 49ers will not be able to play a ball control offense in this game, the Eagles defense is too good to allow them to eat up clock and stay on the field for long stretches. At some point Purdy will have to make plays. Does anyone truly believe that a rookie QB making his 9th career start can put up the 28+ points it will likely take to win this game in the most hostile environment of his career? It’s just not a likely scenario folks and something that has never been done by a rookie QB in NFL history. Why is this different?

And finally, weather doesn’t seem to be a huge factor now but that could change before Sunday. Forecast could even hit high 40’s or low 50’s but is that an advantage for SF? I don’t see it that way. Anything that gives Jalen Hurts and the high powered Eagles offense more opportunity to play their game is a disadvantage for SF. If you watched the 49ers beat GB in the snow last year you would realize that poor weather is the ultimate neutralizer in football for the weaker offensive team. A sunny day in Philadelphia is a big disadvantage for SF.

There is a lot of additional info you could look at if you wanted to dig in more but I feel like this post has gotten to be long enough by now and I have covered the most important factors. My point is, this is how you break down and handicap a game, not by watching ESPN or focusing on winning streaks or other outside noise.

Anything can happen in the NFL and if the 49ers pull it off I’ll tip my hat to them, but I’ll also be shocked.

Eagles -2.5 (max unit play for me which is 5)

PS. Be careful on SF teasers as well, you really think the books are just gonna make a SF/KC teaser that easy? GL

Most gamblers haven’t taken the time to realize that the 49ers have not even left the west coast once during that 12 game winning streak. In fact they only left California 3 times total during the 12 game winning streak. The three times they left California was to go to Arizona, Seattle and Las Vegas which are all in close proximity to SF. Not exactly road warriors with that schedule. Take it one step further and you will see that the 49ers have only traveled east of Chicago twice all season. The Chicago game was in Week 1 by the way, the others were to Carolina in week 5 and Atlanta in week 6. They went 1-2 in those 3 games. 49ers are now being asked to fly 2500 miles to a different time zone and play the early game on Sunday. This will be the 3rd time this year they have done this and lost both times before against Chicago and Atlanta. (Panthers was a 4:05 start.)

Brock Purdy has also been crowned as the next great QB of the NFL by various “experts” who have already pushed Trey Lance and Jimmy G out of town.

Toughest crowd that Purdy has faced was Seattle. Yes, we all love the 12th man and remember when Marshawn Lynch shook the earth in 2010 against the Saints. But Seattle is not Philly. Say what you want about the city or the fans but the experience for opposing players is as tough as experience as there is in the entire NFL. Philly is just different and players are well aware of this. Purdy can say all the right things but in the back of his head, it would be impossible to not have some nerves or fear creep in about playing in Philadelphia. We’ve all heard the stories about playing there, he has too. I can promise it will be much more hostile than he’s ever seen in the NFL.

Psychologically Purdy has to have doubt about being able to beat Jalen Hurts as well. In college at Iowa State, he was defeated by none other than Jalen Hurts and Oklahoma. Maybe that doesn’t matter, but ask any Golfer, Tennis player or NFL Kicker if psychology plays a role in their success. Can Purdy eliminate that doubt and overcome the first loss against Hurts?

History is also not on SF’s side. There have been 4 rookie QBs in history to play in a conference championship game. Their record is 0-4 with an average loss of 10.25 pts.

The trenches is where games are won and while SF gets all the hype, in my opinion, the Eagles have an advantage on both lines. On the offense line the Eagles have two 1st team all pro selections in Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson. Yes Nick Bosa is a star but against the Cowboys, the 49ers had only 1 total sack and 4 QB hits. The Eagles have the consensus best O-Line in football. Hard to imagine 49ers can do more this week than they did last week, which wasn’t that much. On Defense the Eagles are the only team in NFL history that have 4 players with 10+ sacks. That is not a fluke. Trent Williams is a star for SF but the rest of the line is average. Eagles have depth for days on both lines and have manhandled teams in the trenches all season.

I am seeing a ton of mediocre internet gamblers and a few national blowhards hyping up a 49ers team that in my opinion will clearly be overmatched this weekend against the Eagles. There’s a reason why Sportsbetting is such a profitable venture for most books. It’s because most gamblers are lazy and easily influenced by national media who claim to be “experts”.

The way most gamblers pick games is not by breaking it down and looking for edges, it’s by scouring Twitter or their favorite gambling websites and latching onto a consensus play that is getting the most hype. Or for the ones that think they are a little savvier, they will watch ESPN or NFL network all day and get caught up in one of their favorite personalities hot takes.

This is basically the equivalent of watching CNBC all day to pick stocks. It simply doesn’t work.

To truly break down a game you need to look at all aspects of it and determine which team has an edge in things that matter most. Listed below I will give you a few facts on this game and show you why I think the Eagles have a significant edge on Sunday.

If you turn on every ESPN, FS1 or NFL network show, you are constantly reminded of the 49ers 12 game winning streak. Impressive, sure but let’s look a little closer.

Kelce just had Covid so he’s not getting tested for 90 days as part of the league rules. Mahomes will be tested. But to be honest, Chiefs may have already thought this through and wouldn’t mind if Mahomes did get it. Better now then in the playoffs. And if he gets it now it guarantees he won’t be tested the rest of the season. Pretty big advantage if you ask me. 

Typically Penn State fan. Always completely satisfied with mediocrity 

Fighting is almost as much mental as it is physical. There is no doubt that Fury is in Wilder’s head. Fury took Wilder’s best punch in fight 1 and got up from it. In fight 2 Fury just straight beat up Wilder. That is not something that Wilder will be able to just forget about. There is no doubt that those thoughts will be lingering in his head. Fury has unwavering confidence in his ability and though Wilder would never admit it, he has to be slightly intimidated by that. 

Wilder also made a panic move in switching trainers and is apparently figuring out a whole new game plan and style to attack Fury. Wilder is 35 years old and to expect him to completely change is style of fighting that he’s used his entire career can only lead to mistakes and sloppiness in my opinion. 

The line set by the books also tells a story here as they make Fury almost 3-1 favorite. In America they know they will get a lot of Wilder action at + money and don’t seem to be worried in the least bit. This is the biggest heavyweight fight in several years and the books are essentially begging for Wilder money.

Of course there’s always a chance Wilder connects on a big punch and knocks out Fury, I would be shocked if Fury losses this fight. He’s too big, too crazy and too dominant of a fighter. Add that to the mental edge and Fury is the clear play in this fight.