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Cal +9.5 -110 <1 unit>

Public vs Sharp money has been pretty split on this game all week. Now that its game day, we are starting to see money go on Oregon, who wouldn't? Its Oregon with a ranking next to their name. Cal is 0-3, how can they cover here? Well here is what we see. Oregon was -12 vs Stanford, -10.5 on the road vs Wazzu, -13.5 vs UCLA (open line) and -13.5 last week to Oregon st on the road. Why is this line -9.5 to an 0-3 Cal? You are telling me Cal is 3-4 points better than all these other teams that Oregon has played? WHAT?

Oregon has been downgraded by Vegas. We watched that game last week vs Oregon st, and they allowed the Beavers to stay within the number the entire game and couldn't pull away. Yes, it was very foggy and the weather caused issues, but they also struggled vs the 2nd string UCLA QB just weeks ago. They also allowed 413 yards to the backup QB in Stanford and company, and they were losing to Wazzu until they backdoored a TD with a minute left to cover. Their defense has not been as impressive as people might think. 

Cal has not been impressive at all this season, they have been struggling offensively and rank towards the bottom in the Pac on stats. Their O Line has been struggling with Covid issues, and Garbers has not proven himself yet this year only throwing 5-3 TD to INT ratio. With that said, wouldn't you think Cal should be getting 14+ tonight? 

Everywhere we look, we are reading that Oregon is going to bounce back, they are off a horrible loss, and their offense will exploit Cal’s defense. Oregon proved that they can score and Cal cant keep pace. I can keep going here, but VEGAS is telling us that they are not scared to lay such a low number for a team that is 0-3. This is the red flag to us, and when the line doesn't match how the team looks, you know what we do. We are taking Cal +9.5. LETS GO! Good Luck!

Tennessee -2 -110 <1 unit>

The fact that Arkansas is a dog in this position raised our eyebrows. They have been playing tough all year, losing last week by 11 to ranked Texas A&M, losing to ranked Auburn by 2 a few weeks ago, and beating ranked Miss St outright as 17 point dogs. Why isn't Arkansas laying -3 here today? This one smells. Also, this is a night game and currently, they are home public dogs...that's never a good sign. In addition, they are 5-0 ATS this year, and Vegas threw out a home public dog number, watch out guys let's not get trapped! 

Let's talk about Tennessee. They started 2-0 and then dropped the last 3. They played Alabama and Georgia and got trounced, and then lost to Kentucky in a sandwich spot in between Alabama and Georgia. The QB Guarantano’s numbers are not bad considering who they have played, completing 62%, 914 yards, 6 TDs and 3 picks. He protects the ball which is good vs Arkansas who has 10 picks in 5 games. Their best chance to win this game is by running the shit out of the ball as Arkansas is 12th in the SEC giving up 178 rush yards per game. Here is the thing, Tennessee has an amazing O Line that received a lot of hype before the season has started but hasn't lived up to expectations. We believe this is the game they shine vs a bad rush defense.

Tennessee appears to have a shaded defensive stat line, remember who they played so far (Georgia/Alabama). Franks will appear to have a field day with this defense but here is the thing, the over under is not in the 60s. Its sitting at 54, which is more of a pro style number. Tennessee is only giving up 3.7 yards per carry so this will be all Franks today. What we really like is the fact that Tennessee is off a bye with 2 weeks to prepare for Arkansas, and this is the game they really need after dropping 3. 

Many are talking about Arkansas being the most improved team in the SEC and having been in many close games. However, this line is asking for Arkansas money and everyone forgot that just earlier last month, Tennessee was ranked before those 3 brutal games in a row. Tennessee has a lot of talent on this team which will be showcased tonight. Lets go! Good luck! 

Clemson -5 -110 <1 unit>

HUGEEE game here boys. #1 vs #4, and Vegas opened this line up Clemson -6. We are seeing many books at -5.5 now, and at first look, we were like WOW. 6 points with a back up QB and they almost lost to BC last week? Notre Dame has handled every team they have played except for the close one with Louisville. This defense is LOADED and ESPN has been hyping Notre Dame’s defense all week. This line stood out. Think if Lawrence was playing? Would this line be -9? Thats a lot of respect...

Last week, BC vs Clemson’s box score is shaded. BC had 7 off a 97 yard fumble return. Clemson outgained BC in all categories. Long story short, Clemson held BC to 0 points in the 2H and scored 21 points. Without that return TD, it would have been 34-21, but Clemson’s QB also started out slow in the 1H and got going in the 2H. QB Uiagalelei was recruited to Clemson for a reason, hes no slouch. He played well last week and ND has not been tested. Their best QB they have faced this year was Cunningham for Louisville and they only won 12-7 as 16 point favs.

Notre Dame’s stats are inflated and they usually are. When they step up in class, they usually let these games down. Last year, when ND played Michigan, they got trounced 45-14. The crazy part here is, when CLemson and ND play each other the last 4 times, Clemson is 4-1 but 3 of those 4 games were decided by 6 or fewer points. Now you get a BACK UP QB starting and they opened this line at 6? Anyone can easily google the most recent games and see that these games have been close and less than 6. That STINKS!

Brian Kelly is 0-7 against top 5 AP teams and is 0-4 at home vs TOP 5 AP teams. We will take the stinky line here that gives ND too many points based on recency bias, recent head to head match up scores, and the back up QB laying this much to a #4 seed. Lets go! Good luck! 

Oklahoma St. -14 -110 <1 unit>

We want to run a little spread analysis for you guys before breaking this one down more. Okie St. were just back to back -3.5 point favorites ATS, and did not cover either, losing public perception with a 3 point win over Iowa St. and an outright OT loss to Texas last week.  Kansas St. got exposed last week with their backup QB who we don’t believe is ANY GOOD.  This is a K-State team at 4-2 that just lost their top 25 ranking of #16 and now getting double digits vs a team who is pissed off.  It’s also worth mentioning that the same WV team that demolished K-State last week got punched in the mouth by Oklahoma St. a couple of weeks ago by a score of 27-13.

To start, Oklahoma St. beat K-State last year 26-13 and the spread this year falls right in between this number yet again.  Oklahoma St. did lose to Texas last week, and we were on Texas because the line seemed way off.  The reality is though, Oklahoma St. out-played Texas last week, but didn’t make the big plays that mattered to secure the win.  Okie St. actually out paced Texas with 530 yards compared to 287.  It’s pretty crazy to look at this yardage total and the fact that Okie St. had 32 first downs compared to the 17 that Texas came away with the win.  Oklahoma St. has 21 sacks on the season so far which smells like big trouble for a K-State backup QB that hasn’t impressed anyone.   K-State got smashed by a strong WV defense that we compare very closely to that of Okie St.  K-State hasn’t been able to get their ground game going and backup QB Will Howard simply put is turning the ball over too much while completing only 55% of his passes. 

Oklahoma St. is one of the better teams in the BIG 12, and K-State is washing out as the season continues.  K-State is going to get lit up today.  The total of 48 does appear low to lay 14 points but we don’t see K-State scoring more than 13 to 17 points in this game.  Even if K-State gets to the 17 point mark, it’s hard for us to see Okie St. not getting into the 30’s.  This line is actually pretty spot on, but none-the-less we are taking Okie St. -14 today.  Good Luck.

V-Tech -16 -110 <1 unit>

Liberty, Liberty, Liberty, LIBERTY! Wait, that’s a commercial.  Who the hell is Liberty? Liberty has started their season 6-0.  Are they for real?  They might be, but the reality is that this V-Tech team will be the toughest team they will have faced all season..  Liberty is the #25 team in the nation now after being unranked as of last week.  Liberty is now ranked in the top 25, have started the season 6-0, and the books set this line at 17.  WTF?  What do the bookmakers know that we don't?

For starters, Liberty is coming off a bye week, while V-Tech is entering this coming off a shootout style win against Louisville.  It is pretty well known at this point that V-Tech is a much stronger team at home than on the road. V-Tech’s defense has allowed 30.5 ppg this season; this alone would imply that V-Tech would need to put up 45+ to cover ATS right?  Well the TOTAL of 67.5 in conjunction with the spread sure does imply that this game has some points scored.  We are talking about a 42-27 type of game.  V-Tech has some speed on their defense with good defensive back play from Chamari Conner, and a super fast Defensive Lineman named Justus Reed who already has 14 tackles and 4.5 sacks this season.  Shifting over to quickly address the high octane offense V-Tech possesses; they flat out can run the ball better than most, and their 37.7 ppg is due in part to their run game. Khalil Herbert is a senior RB that currently ranks 4th in the nation in rushing. 

Liberty’s offense has been on fire, this is a pun on the fact that they are the Liberty Flames ??.  Sure they have won their shootouts but they still let a team like Southern Miss put up 35 on them.  Beating down an 0-7 UL Monroe is simply a game that bolsters and inflates their stats, and the two games earlier this season that they inched out include squeaking by Western Kentucky 30-24, and barely beating Florida International 36-34 doesn't say much. 

We don’t think that Liberty will be able to contain the V-Tech running game.  It’s time to put the flame out as V-Tech cruises to a 5-2 start entering their upcoming big clash against # 11 Miami. It’s time for them to handle Liberty today.  Good luck.

Michigan -3.5 -120 <1 unit>

Michigan just got handed their first loss by losing to little brother MSU 27-24 as huge 20+ favorites.  Indiana is off to one of their best starts in the last 30 years after beating Penn St. in OT to start the season, and after taking it to a traditionally poor Rutgers team.  Let’s break this down.

Michigan came up short against MSU due to their inability to make any big plays.  Harbaugh hasn’t had much success against OSU, Penn St., Wisconsin, or MSU in his 6 years as the head coach, but he has had some good success over the rest of the BIG 10 year to date. Michigan is averaging 200+ ypg on the ground with a fairly balanced passing game to go in stride with their style of play.  Indiana on the other hand is still too hard to gauge in our opinion.  Sure Indiana snuck by past Penn St., and took it to Rutgers, but we think the 6 turnovers they have come up with thus far isn't going to be the same type of game vs Michigan.  We don’t see a 3 turnover game taking place for Michigan after losing to MSU on the road last week. Even then, they had 0 turnovers in that game. Even with setting up big plays and taking turnovers away from their opponents, Indiana has let up 28 ppg. 

Some numbers appear very deceiving on the Indiana side.  Indiana is averaging 36.5 ppg, but they are only averaging 204 yards passing through the air per game and a below average 75 yards rushing on the ground.  This tells us that the turnovers that we mentioned above have been what has inflated their scoring numbers.  Did we forget to mention that Indiana is ranked #13 in the nation now?  That seems a little suspect considering they have only played two games against opponents with a 1-3 record, and are now 3-4 point home dogs.

Indiana doesn’t perform well as a home dog in their last 12 games going 2-9-1 and do not typically play well against Michigan.  In fact, the last time Indiana beat Michigan was over 33 years ago on October 24, 1987.  This spread is too low, and we love taking Michigan today. GOOD LUCK BOOM NATION!

Iowa -5 -110 <1 unit>
Wait, Iowa is 0-2 and was laying -7 until all the money came in on MSU. MSU just beat Michigan OUTRIGHT as 21.5 point DOGS and is getting plenty of points to Iowa!? Iowa had a big lead over Northwest and squandered it away, and MSU held on to beat big brother Michigan as more than a three TD dog.  How in the hell did this game open -7?  It appears to us that the books are screaming PLEASE TAKE MSU and people have!  

Last week's Iowa vs Northwestern game slipped away from the physical Iowa team due in part to 3 tipped interceptions.  Were these solely on QB Spencer Petras; no, but a couple of passes were behind receivers and he will need to play better and let the IOWA physical style of play control the clock if they want to win today vs MSU. This game toal is really low at 46, and we aren’t going to lie to you… we typically do not like laying 7 when the total is this low in what we presume will be a hard hitting run style type of game but the line has now dropped to 4.5 on our book.  We couldn’t resist putting this game on our first looks list because how else do you explain the line 7 even though money is clearly coming in on MSU.  

MSU is currently ranked 16th in the nation when it comes to their passing yardage, but this is mainly due to them being behind in their matchup vs Rutgers, and because of their inability to run the ball effectively thus far this season.  MSU is averaging 88 rushing yards per game this season so far. MSU pulled out the win vs Michigan last week, but Rocky Lombardi wasn’t accurate with the ball in this game or against Rutgers the week before.  Sure he put up over 300 yards rushing with three TD’s and no picks, but 53% passing completion rate simply won't cut it here on the road against Iowa. 

With or without Smith-Marsette (WR), Iowa should be able to take it to the MSU secondary who have allowed 470 passing yards in their first couple of games. Iowa is averaging about 50 more ypg on the ground and gets to play on their home field off back to back disappointments.  It’s not going to be pretty, but we see Iowa pulling off a 27-17 type of victory today. With MSU coming off such a huge high last week, we do not see them going on the road this week and putting up more than 14 to 20 points against Iowa.  Remember, Iowa was just -3 to Purdue and -1 to NW, and today, the spread is MUCH HIGHER than both those games. We believe it's for a reason, take Iowa to cover ATS today.  Good luck!

WMU/Akron Under 52.5 -110 <1 unit>

MACTION BABY! We are rolling with the UNDER 52.5. This line opened at 54, it took early sharp action on the UNDER and now on game day, it has swung and people are betting the OVER sitting at 93%. We broke this down and to us, it points to a low scoring game. Lets dig in!

WMU is replacing a few players on their offense, their QB, RB, and 4 guys from their 6 First Team ALL MAC players who graduated. They did get some transfers, but this is a whole new offense. They are also replacing their 2nd and 3rd leading receivers, and their TE. We still believe this team will be loaded on offense, hence the spread of -20.5, but we believe the spread is due to their DEFENSE. They return their top defenders and have an amazing pass rush which ranked top 25 in sacks last season. They are missing some guys in the secondary, but Akron is not an offensive juggernaut, so this is the perfect game for them to see how they fair.

Akron’s offense was horrible last year, 1.8 yards per rush and their O Line was gross. They did not score more than 7 points in 7 of 12 games last year. Yes, they could get better this year, but the defense they face today is not going to ease up. Their O Line should struggle again since they are replacing both their starting tackles, so their QB Nelson will have no time to throw again. Their defense will struggle on the line, losing most of their starters from last year, and they may be on the field often today. Their secondary has potential, and overall, they return 15 total starters to help them move forward from last year.

With all this said, Akron averaged just 10.5 ppg last season. Yes, they may be able to take a step forward but that's a large leap, especially with a defense that WMU has with pressuring the QB. The crazy part here is they have the team total’s inflated, 36.5 and 17.5, which implies OVER with 54 total points even though the Total sits at 52.5. They are making it hard for you to hit those team total overs for a reason. We believe there will be a lot of punts and a team that will struggle to get to 14-17 for Akron and 31-34 for WMU. Good Luck! 

No look ahead here! Too many people try and use the situational angle of looking ahead, but what about the "set up" angle? Florida looks good taking care of Missouri to set up the "look ahead" game. 

Lets go!!

We went 4-0 today, 22-9 in our last 31 posts. Tomorrow is a big day! 

Thank you sir! we went 4-0 today, 22-9 in our last 31 posts. Tomorrow is a big day! 

LETS GO!!!!!

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Virginia +8 -110 <1 unit>

Virginia lost 4 straight, but one was due to a shit-ton of covid issues, one was to #1 Clemson, and one was to # 11 Miami. The fact of the matter is people are going to chase today and try and take # 15 ranked UNC. Why is a 1-4 team only a 7.5-8 point dogs against the #15 team in the nation; mind you they were #5 in the nation two weeks ago. Speaking of that; this UNC team is a little overhyped. Looking at their schedules it is a tale of two tapes.
UNC lost to Florida St. which is embarrassing AF. They were exposed and FSU ran for more 240 yards on them. If Virginia can get the run game going and let their defense keep them in the game they can cover this game ATS. Virginia covered ATS vs #1 Clemson and #11 Miami. Virginia is gonna show up to play today and stay within 8 points. Virginia has only played 2 home games this year, and when playing against NC State, they had a whole bunch of Covid issues and dropped that game, then they were missing their starting QB vs Wake Forest, and when he returned vs Miami last week, they fought and only lost by 5, covering the spread.

Armstrong is back and he should be able to work this UNC defense a bit who has been hit hard by FSU and Virginia Tech. Both teams ran for 260 yards and 241. Virginia protects their QB, only allowing 9 total sacks in 5 games ranking #1 in the ACC, and these are against Clemson, Miami, and NC St. Their O Line can protect Armstrong.

The total is 61. This implies some Virginia will score at least 24 meaning UNC needs to handle on the road to win let alone cover ATS. We are taking Virginia tonight while everyone chases an overhyped UNC team that might get the win, but isn't going to cover ATS. Good Luck guys!

Florida -13.5 -110 <1 unit>

Florida has been letting their shootout loss to Texas A&M brew for the last couple of weeks. They had a bye week, and basically another bye week due to Florida/LSU being rescheduled. This Florida team is super explosive on offense and can score at will. We think playing in the swap tonight is going to really gas the Missouri players in the 2h. Let's dig in. 

Florida's defense had some question marks, but they have now had a couple of weeks to prepare for Missouri. The big mismatches we see are with the offensive line of Florida versus Missouri's D line... Florida has such a big advantage and it will show today. Florida should score on this Missouri squad, and when the 2h humidity starts to kick in; that's when Missouri will see that the Swamp home field advantage is real with or without a booming crowd.

We don't see Missouri pulling off another upset the likes in which they did vs LSU. Missouri is having a redshirt freshman QB start in the swamp. Come on guys! If you have watched the Gators over the years you know what we are saying here. Florida's linemen on both sides of the ball have such a big size advantage. So many people think to compare star QB's, or RB's or WR's, but the truth is none of those stars will be able to perform at their highest levels and/or cover ATS if they have a significant disadvantage with protection, and transversely putting immense pressure on the opposing QB. The redshirt freshman qb angle is just too much not to fade. 

This game reminds us of when Missouri visited Tennessee this year. BLOW OUT CITY! Florida has Georgia next week and wants to use this game against Missouri as a get right game before facing Georgia next week. On top of having line mismatches... We just don't see how the hell Missouri is going to contain Florida TE Kyle Pitts. The dude is a beast and will have his way today. Kyle Trask is going to pick Missouri apart. This line jumping from 12.5 to 14 is asking for Missouri money. Florida -13.5. Let's Go!

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Texas +3.5 -110 <1 unit>

Everyone knows about how explosive Texas' offense can be, but it's the Okie St’s defense and their strong run game that has most of us liking Okie st. The question you need to ask, why is Okie St, who is ranked 6th in the nation with a top defense, who just beat 17th Iowa St, only laying barely a field goal and a hook? Okie St did not cover last week, but they were up 10 with 50 seconds left. They held Iowa st to 14 total points before the back door, but Texas should do better today?.

Ehlinger is the key for this cover today. He has 17 TD’s, 2nd in the country and 7 TD’s rushing. They avg 45 points per game and rank 4th in the nation. This will be the toughest offense Okie st will have faced this year. Texas has converted 22 of their 31 redzone drives, they know how to score, but its their defense that has not been stepping up to finish games. However, last week, they did handle Baylor and looked much better completing tackles. They will need to do a lot of that today, and with the line being so low and the over under sitting at almost 59, this implies Texas to get points on the board. 

Okie st ranks 8th in scoring defense, allowing 12 points per game and that's all we see. But who have they played? Tulsa, who looked anemic last night, got WVU at home where WVU is a horrible road team and rank 70th in overall offense, and a horrible Kansas team ranking 118th. Iowa St has a 32nd ranked offense, but Purdy has not looked the same, he has 2 games over 200 yards passing and 2 games under 162 yards. He is not the same QB as years past, but today, they will face Ehlinger who can run/pass and will be a handful.

Last week, Okie st gave up 185 rush yards to Breece Hall, he broke off two runs for 66 and 70. We don't truly believe that this defense is highly ranked on paper than they should be. Texas had issues with Covid, injuries, and lost their ranking by dropping a game to TCU and Oklahoma. This is a big statement game for Texas to be put back on the map. This is a non ranked team getting the same amount of points as a 17th ranked Iowa st team. Vegas is giving Texas a lot of respect here. Lets go! Good luck!

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Tulsa -17 -110 <1 unit>

We feel like too many people are trying to act sharp here and take East Carolina. The line opened -18 and is now sitting at -17, people see more % on Tulsa and the RLM so they say ECU is the play, but you need to look at this game deeper. -18 is a dead number, going to -17 does not mean much. Early money when this line opened 4-5 days ago was on Tulsa. As the days have gone by, the % started to balance and more money is now going on ECU, hence why the line went to -17. If the % and money stayed on Tulsa, this could have gone to -19, but Vegas is getting what they want. 

The QB for ECU will be returning from his Covid Quarantine, but it doesn't say much to us. He played two soft defenses in UCF and G State, everyones been putting up big numbers against them. Even then, he has 3 TDS and 4 Picks. People are talking about ECU has finally started playing better vs USF and Navy defensively, but thats USF and Navy, lets be real. Both those teams are at the very bottom of FBS in defensive rankings. ECU gave up 51 to UCF and was losing 44-14 in the 4th Q until the soft UCF defense gave up points. Tulsa does not bend, they play very hard on defense and ECU will have a hard time tonight. We don't see any easy points. 

With this over under sitting at 60, Tulsa will get to 40 tonight. They held USF to 13 total points and UCF to 26. UCF has scored 49, 51, 49, and 51 in there other games. That is HUGE. This defense held Chuba Hubbard to 3.07 yards per touch; ECU wont be doing much tonight. They rank top 20 in scoring defense, yet the over under is still sitting at 60. Tulsa also has a slow pace, ranking 83rd in 65.7 plays per game. Why does this matter? Because the over under is high, and if Tulsa is going to drain the clock and play good defense, they will end up scoring most of the points tonight. Take Tulsa, good luck! Lets go!!!

LSU -4.5 -110 <1 unit>

LSU is entering this came off a bad loss to a so so at best Missouri team, South Carolina on the other hand is entering this game off a BIG win vs Auburn. LSU had 2 weeks to prepare for this game, since SC won last week, we may see some LSU value here, especially because it opened at 6.5 and now it is 4.5 with the public betting on SC. Let’s dig into this one a little deeper.
This is a big game for LSU that they desperately need a win to avoid further bad perception.  Going from national champs to being 1-3 if they lose this game is pretty rough. Today, they will be starting a true freshman QB. Any other day, we would be on this play, but they 2 weeks to prepare for this game and it’s a big statement game for them. This freshman is listed 6 foot 6 and 242 pounds and per reports, can throw 70 yards with a flick of a wrist.

South Carolina is all about running the ball. Unfortunately, LSU is one of the best teams against the run, it's LSU’s secondary that has had issues and caused them to lose 2 games thus far this season. We noticed that the TOTAL is about 4 points higher than it was in LSU's last two games. LSU has put up 41 in back to back weeks and 34 against a Mississippi st team that exploited them with the AIR RAID! This is a bad matchup for SC who is now traveling on the road after a big win last week. The truth is that Coach O is all about his backup QB and thinks he is the real deal; a real talent that is more than capable of keeping this LSU offense exploding for big points the same way they have been all season.

We are laying the points and strongly believe that SC won’t be able to put up enough points to stay with LSU.  The bread and butter of the Gamecocks is how they run the ball, and we are going to see LSU shut that run down enough to get the win today in a 10+ point victory.  Let’s Go!!!

Northwestern -12 -110 <1 unit>

We told ourselves we were going to tread softly as the BIG TEN teams make their season debut, but this line and matchup seemed too good to pass up.  Let’s break it down and hopefully we can share with you exactly why this game caught our eye.

Maryland was a 3-9 team last season and so was Northwestern... Northwestern was 1-8 in conference play... and now are 12 pt favorites... why? This makes absolutely no sense on the surface. It isn't announced yet who the starting QB for Maryland will be... Their starter last season opted out this season... so it is between Alabama transfer Taulia Tagovailoa and Lance LeGendre. Both of Tagovailoa and LeGendre combined for 12 passes thrown on the field last season. One of these two are going to be making their first collegiate start on the road against a Northwestern team that recently got a bigtime offensive injection. Peyton Ramsey, a SENIOR transfer from Indiana is now the starting QB for Northwestern.

12 is a huge number for a team that was 3-9 last year to cover, but with their newly acquired senior QB transfer this team should be able to exploit a likely still weak Maryland secondary. He also gets most all of NW’s starting offensive weapons back from last year. You don’t completely flip a team like Maryland around with everything between covid and their starting QB opting out. Maryland on the road last season didn't score more than 17 points except for a game against a shit RUTGERS team. Maryland was dead last in passing defense last year and considering this total is 54.5; it’s implied that NW will score and if Maryland is to cover this game, they will need to score 22+ which we don’t see. Let’s Go! Good Luck!

Kentucky/Missouri Under 47 -110 <1 unit>

Missouri is coming in off a huge upset victory over defending national champions LSU. They now have a home game against a Kentucky team that likes to run the ball and play hard hitting defense. In Missouri’s last game, the over under was 54 and it went WAY OVER. Now this line is a touchdown less, it stood out to us.

Kentucky scored a lot last week via their defense. The fact that this is the lowest total of the weekend is very telling to us. Missouri hasn't been able to stop anybody; they have now given up at least 35 points in all three of their games this season, yet the TOTAL is 47. Makes you think.

Missouri had covid issues that forced them to postpone their game vs Vandy as well.  Starting a Freshman QB against this Kentucky defense is going to be rough for Missouri. Don’t let the big LSU win scoring 45 points skew you, LSU gave up 44 to Miss st as well. They do not have a defense this year.

Tennessee beat Missouri by 23 and held them to 12 points. Kentucky just beat the crap out of the Vols and kept them to 7. They also kept Miss st to 2 points.  This total implies a super low scoring game. 27-20 seems too high to us considering the Freshman Missouri QB is starting  against a solid defense. Over the last two seasons Kentucky inched out a 15-14 win on the road vs Missouri in 2018 and laid the wood on them last season in 2019 at home beating Missouri 29-7.  The total in 2019 was 43.5. Take the Under, Lets go!

Tennessee +22 (-110) <1 unit>

This might be a tough bet today, but the backdoor should be open. Alabama off a MASSIVE game at home winning by 17 to Georgia. Now, they go on the road to Tennessee and this team just lost 34-7 to Kentucky. They dropped out of their ranking and now get a HUGE game at home. Why take Tennessee?

This game is all about covering the spread. In games that Alabama were double digit favorites this year, -29 vs Missouri and did not cover, -23.5 vs Ole Miss and did not cover. At home? They handled business. Now coming off their biggest game of their schedule, they seriously have nothing to look forward to besides just winning the rest of their games this year. Tennessee on the other hand has everything to play for in this spot.

When Tenn played Georgia, it was 30-21 going into the 4 Q. Tenn made a mistake, fumbled the ball, and Georgia ran it in. They also had a TD on their own and lost 44-21. They could have covered but those turnovers hurt. They were also only +12 on the ROAD in that game, and now getting +22 at home? They also made crazy mistakes last week vs Kentucky leading to 2 pick 6s so that final score is misleading.

This is a situational play, this will be Tennessee’s biggest game at home this year and Alabama is rolling in with the highest confidence knowing they are double digit favorites. We think the dog will do whatever they can to keep this close. Good Luck!