tenplay

How about tweaking your system to bet on home dogs only if the teams are in the upper half of the current power rankings?   Fewer games to bet but much better chances of winning.

I have a question that may have been addressed earlier.  Are your bets on each game variable according to the odds or are they the same?  In other words, if home teams Arizona are at +174 and Miami at +136, are you betting the amounts of $174 and $136 on the two games or are you betting the same amount on both games (e.g. $20 on each)?  Thanks for your answer.

99% of bettors can lose their pants (and everything else) by betting on sports.  But they can never win enough to improve their finances permanently.  So just bet the minimum each time where it doesn't make much difference whether one wins or loses.  A win brings a smile to one's face.  A loss brings a shrug.  I started about 3 years ago with $300 in my online betting account and, after over a thousand of daily bets, am up about $50 plus the 10% vig.  My bets are usually in the $2-4 range.  I try to avoid the "sure bets" that lose enough to negate any "sure" wins.

I like to bet on stronger teams that are underdogs to weaker teams that are favored because their aces are pitching today.  A good example is Ryu, ace of the favored Blue Jays, getting blasted by Houston on Friday.  I realize that the odds change constantly until gametime.  Do the odds on strong underdogs tend to improve or get worse as more of the public bet?  In other words, is it better to bet earlier on strong underdogs when the odds first come out or later toward gametime?  Thanks for your opinion.

Not only the high elevation but also the questionable field conditions (caused cancellation last year) and possible food and water poisoning (most of the players have never traveled in Third World countries).  Hard to play a game with the runs.  

Why will the high altitude affect the defenses only?  7000+ feet will affect everyone equally.

How did Goff make your list of losers?  Otherwise good post.

The spread is Oregon -18.  We might be pleasantly surprised by new Cal QB Devon Modster.  His stat line for 2017 at UCLA as freshman backup QB was 51 completions out of 79 attempts (64.6%), 671 yards, 4 TDs and ) Ints. with a 152.6 rating.  He had to sit out 2018 for transferring within the Pac10 and the first portion of this season for unknown NCAA reasons.  The talk on the Cal campus is that the WRs favored Modster over injured QB Garbers in spring training and have had great practices with him this week.  Be careful.

How do you guys feel about the new trend of many, if not most, of the NBA star players choosing not to represent their countries in international play and the upcoming Olympics?  Is their selfish attitude the new normal?  Will future national teams be made up of college and AAU players (i.e. true amateurs) like in the good ol' days?  I wouldn't mind it at all.

Leonard played only 9 games in 2017-8 and missed 22 games last season.  And he limped through much of the playoffs.  Unlike the SA team and fans, the Toronto treated him with kid gloves and kept him on a pedestal even though he showed up for really only the playoffs well-rested and finally ready to play.  He did not play any back-to-back games through the whole regular season.  Do you think the Clipper team, fans and LA press will be so patient and unconditionally supportive?  Or do you think the conditions will be more like SA, where the seriousness of his injury and his commitment were questioned the the point where KL just pouted and forced the trade to Toronto?  I have my doubts about the team chemistry of the Clippers with two new prima donna players to keep happy.

I am Canadian and live in Toronto.  Was raised in the Bay Area idolizing the Warriors as a kid.  Now a dual citizen.  So my allegiances were split about 60-40% (leaning toward Raptors) during the Finals.  Fortunately I placed all of my wagers on the Raptors.  

While I enjoyed the Raptors' victory, it was sad to witness the probable ending of the Warriors successful run.  I have been a Warrior fan since my youth living in the Bay Area.  I think that the success of the team of talented and rich athletes had to end soon if not now.  I think that they got fat and lazy, which showed in their lack of conditioning and focus that led to their many serious injuries unlike the hungrier Raptors.  It seems that all successful pro athletes end up in the same decline.   Here is an interesting analysis of their loss:

The GS injuries are all part of the NBA Fix to create drama and influence betting.  Why are none of the Raptors getting injured?  Are they stronger and more in shape than the Warriors?  If the Warriors were not getting "injured", who would bet on the Raptors?  

My thinking is that Durant and Cousins will not play at all.  They suffered significant injuries already and will not jeopardize big paydays to help the Warriors in what promises to be a brutal and closely contested series against the hungrier Raptors.  Durant is due for a career-boosting mega-contract with probably the Knicks, which would be negatively affected with another serious injury.  Cousins up-and-down value to GS would discourage Kerr from risking the huge change in team chemistry and focus in the middle of the Finals.  Raptors in 6.

Amazing that with the huge and raucous celebration in Toronto, there were zero arrests.  In any US city, you would have seen roving drunken mobs, broken windows, overturned cars, fires, and a lot of arrests.  

Hahaha.  I used to bet a lot of games everyday based upon "expert's picks", hunches and favorite teams.  The winning days would alternate with losing days, but the inevitable grinding down by the vig would always take over.  The memories of the big wins would constantly feed my blind hope that other big wins were just around the corner.  After many years of chasing my dreams, I decided around 9 months ago to limit myself to just one bet a day (any sport) and occasionally two bets when I felt a little reckless.  I would limit myself to betting 2% of my account and sometimes 4% if I had especially strong feelings about a game.  I have to admit that I don't win much but it's nice to feel little pressure during my wagered games and to watch games with a relaxed attitude and not wanting to "kick the dog" after a bad betting day.  The big picture is to keep in mind that very few bettors win enough to make a difference in their lives while the majority lose a lot and have constant sour looks on their faces with angry spouses in the background.  

2-1 yesterday  

Canisius  +5.5  vs Iona

Manhattan vs Fairfield  U 119.5

Maryland Eastern Shore  +3 vs Delaware St.

Incarnate Word +9  vs  Stephen F. Austin

Wagner vs Fairleigh Dickinson  U 134.5

Gotta agree.  Kansas will come out determined to get rid of the bad taste of the Kentucky loss.  Kansas has been playing a lot of close games recently and so -1 is really attractive and should rise by gametime tonight.  Other than playing at home, Texas does not have any advantages.  Sometimes it's best not to out-think yourself.