The_Presence

What's up Bruce. Yeah that was a bad loss, but as the Sherriff says we'll get em next time. 

Kap is definitely struggling.  His inability to throw accurate short passes or even find the short receivers is magnified against defenses that can rush the passer.  The cool thing is he has quite a few games against teams that can rush the passer so we can fade him and thank him later for being consistently bad.

Hope you find some good gems capping, and hit some winners tomorrow.  Best of luck to you buddy and thanks for the support.  (And I don't think the naysayers are going away anytime soon...they would have to get a life in order for that to happen...I don't think that will happen anytime soon, we just have to get used to it).

(Cue Andy Griffith Show music...)

The Presence: 2015 NFL Week 7 Picks Continued:

#1 NYJ +10 ($750) [quick analysis: Jets match up well, should win battle in the trenches, secondary capable of shutting down NE receivers, Ivory will be a load to stop with Marshall requiring a double team, opening up opportunities for Decker and the other WRs]

#2 Dallas Cowboys +4 ($500) [quick analysis: Cowboys have the advantage on both lines.  Lee and Mclain can drop back in coverage to help the weak Dallas secondary cover the short passing game.  Cowboys scary dLine is fully healthy and will be getting after Eli all day.  Injured NYG LB corps will have trouble containing Witten so Dallas can move the chains even if the running game can't get going.  Dallas was undefeated on the road last year, a sign that Garret gets them mentally prepared for road games]

#3 SF +7 (-$550) Loss

(See previous posts for full analysis of games 1-3)

#4  St Louis Rams -6.5 ($500)  Never thought I'd see the day that the Rams would be favored over anybody by this much again.  I think the line is set to try and get Cleveland backers.  Cleveland's defense is a banged up bunch, and their run defense was already one of the worst in the league.  That's bad news against a red hot Todd Gurley who should run for close to 200 yds in this one.  Check his highlights, this dude is like a slimmer faster version of Chris Ivory. The Rams pass rush isn't as scary as it used to be, but they are still good enough to get after McCown.  The Browns were only in the game against Denver because of Manning's bad picks.  Not saying Foles might not throw any bad picks, but I suspect that the play calling will be focused on the run because of the major advantage STL has there.  Browns have played a couple of OT games so they are a tired bunch, while the Rams are coming off a bye week.  Watch for Tayvon Austin go get going with all of the attention that Gurley will be getting.

#5  Carolina Panthers -3 ($500) Speaking of tired bunches, The Panthers will be awfully tired after flying to Seattle and back.  They also are probably feeling a little weary after playing a physical game with the bruising Seahawks.  Because of these reasons I see them giving up a few more rush yards to the Eagles than they normally would.  Both defenses are ranked pretty similar, and overall this is an evenly matched game.  The X-Factor comes down to Cam Newton.  He is rising to the occasion this season and putting his team on his back.  In a big game situation on SNF, I'm going to bet that Cam will be the difference maker versus Sam Bradford.  Bradford had like three turnovers against one of the poorer defenses in the league (NYG).  Cam has won a national title being the feature player, he's been to the playoffs, and he just went to Seattle and beat the Hawks in a hostile environment.  I think a well rested Panthers team beats down this Eagles team, but because of the wear and tear I think the game stays pretty close.  I imagine at -3 the worst I would get a push, so I'm laying the FG and taking Superman and the Panthers.

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SF +7 vs Seattle Loss Analysis:  I don't like losing, but loving learning from the experience.  As I put in my original analysis of this game, I didn't see any way the Niners could move the ball against the Seattle Defense, but I was counting on them being able to rise up on defense and perhaps get a few short fields on turnovers to be able to stay in the game.  From before kick-off, the look of hopelessness on Kapernick's face told me all I needed to know about what was going to happen in that game.  He didn't believe at all and he played like it.  Niners got like 5 sacks on Wilson, but it was all too easy for Seattle to move the ball on them.  Luckily for the Niners Wilson and the Hawks weren't really interested in embarrassing them in front of their home crowd or this one could have been a lot worse.

What can we learn?

Kap has no confidence or awareness in his short passing game.  He will excel against defenses that can't really rush the passer and have a suspect secondary because of his arm and he has a speedy receiver in Torrey Smith (ala NYG and Ravens).

Against a team that can rush the passer he can't seem to find the right outlet receiver to make the defense pay.  If we take a look at the SF schedule we see quite a few teams that he will face the rest of the year that can apply this type of pressure and he will not be able to counter.  The earliest one comes next week against the Rams so that's a great opportunity to capitalize on the situation.  With the veteran Bethea getting put on IR after Thursday's game, I don't know if the Niners Defense can  keep them in games  any more even against bad teams. The Niners should be easy fades most of the way for the rest of the season. 

Good luck to everyone on their plays this weekend.

Thanks Mike! I appreciate the kind words.  Much respect to you and best of luck on your plays!

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Recon  thanks man! Much success to you

Thank for the love brotha! Nice description of attitudes and consequences of the attitudes. 

Don't mind my little runts.  Ever seen a small child that's been given a toy badge and he goes into his imagination and starts arresting people and telling them what to do?  That's what we have here on this thread; the sheriff of the message board and his little deputy, policing Covers with their green bar badges.  Just think of those little sheriffs when you see them post here and you'll get a good chuckle out of it.

Everything serves a purpose.

Best of Success to you.

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RF1, Area51 Wizerguy thanks fellas.  Best of luck to you all.

Haha, yeah brotha Tony Robbins' videos on youtube was definitely one of the biggest influences in helping me understand myself.  Don't be shocked if I directly use his material here to try and help people. 

If anyone reading this would like to learn about human nature/desires, and why they crave certainty and uncertainty, I suggest you look up Tony's videos on youtube.  This is FREE information and I guarantee you that I will help you with your capping far more than comparing stats and rankings.

Human psychology and how thoughts effect energy and performance should be a foundational piece in your thought process, not just in capping games but in relationships in general.

Your foundation is most important.  If you have a faulty foundation (picking games based on what you see on tv and highlights, fantasy sports rankings, basic stats, etc) your building (bank roll) is bound to fall.  Build a strong foundation (Example: Dallas Cowboys were hovering at 8-8 until they put together their massive O-Line.  When they were done with that they pieced together their D-line.  Now when fully healthy, they are a top-5 team in the league, all because the foundation is strong).  I will touch on this more later as I have to get going right now.

Thanks for the positive words.  Best of success to you brotha.

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JFroShowtime I appreciate the encouragement.  Best of luck to you brotha

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TimeisTruth what's up man.  I actually just feel a Giants implosion coming on.  They are pretty good at it.  Last year I believe they started out ok and proceeded to lose 7 in a row around this time of the year.  The Giants are not a solid team.  They have a lot of injuries and now Beckham is banked up which will make him easier to cover if he even plays.  The Giants couldn't stop Kap in the second half of SNF...he had like 3 70yd drives all finishing in TDs to finish that game.  If he started that in the second quarter the Giants would have got blown out.  Meanwhile the Eagles are starting to pick up steam.  Their MO is to wear you out so they can run all over you in the 4th quarter.  I think they'll be able to do that against a very banged up Giants Defense.  Larry O'Donnell can only carry you so far. 

I hope that helps.  I wish everyone the best of luck.  I messed around last night and hit Oregon on NCAFF so today I am gonna put in a play just to mess around:

#8 KC +3.5 (at MN) $500 - I just got a feeling...

Best of luck again.  Remember to build that foundation. 

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