thekoreanmang

@TheReelPhilD

 Nice writeup. Will tail. Was thinking about MIN -10.5 but I like the double digit underdog rule. Also, I can't believe you're on Covers. I had to do a double take when I saw your handle. I haven't listened to The First Mint in a little while but might have to catch up on some episodes now!

@DoubleUp4Life

Dang. I look forward to your posts. Have been super helpful this season. Just added you as a friend. 

@Macwestie1

 Say it ain't so! I was hoping you'd be on Oral Roberts. When you go with a favorite, esp a heavy one at that, I pay extra attention esp given your penchant for dogs. Damn. I may have to buy out now.

@Macwestie1

 Thanks, my brother from another AAPI mother. 

I think stats are a good intro into the potential story of a given matchup but sometimes, maybe most times, it won't tell the full story. Although, it def told the full story in Gonzaga vs Norfolk St last nt. My goodness that was lopsided. I should've known that the books having to give 33 pts to NSU backers was not a form of charity but rather a form of bait. Haha.

Don't let the trolls make you do anything you wouldn't do on your own. 

You're killing it! Thanks for sharing your insights.

@Macwestie1

At first, I was slightly confused b/c Arkansas is ranked 13th (according to KenPom) and is 35th/11th adjusted offense/defense respectively whereas Texas Tech is ranked 14th and is 31st/19th offense/defense. But, yet, somehow they are favored by 1.5 pts. If everyone knows Arkansas is slightly "better" on paper/advanced metrics then why would they be the dogs even if by a pt or 2? Makes no sense.

But, if you're a contrarian I think it's a tad easier to see which side to follow. 

tl;dr: Tail Mac. Haha.

Good luck to us, Mac! 

@Wizerguy

 I wonder if this is worth running back again against Creighton who just squeaked by UCSB. 

@Wizerguy

 Was on this with you. Was hoping for more for Patrick Ewing. Onto the next! Good luck and great job capping!

Killing it, Mac!

Killing it, Mac!

1/18/21 MON

Jerami Grant O2.5 3PM (120 DK; 105 BetMGM; +122 FD)

• Jerami Grant Stats

• Covered O2.5 3PM in 8 of 12 games (66.7%) this season (incl. last 4 gms straight)
• 3s Made/3s Attempted
• Season Avg (12 gms): 2.8 / 7 (28th / 25th)
• Jan Avg (8 gms): 2.8 / 6.8
• Dec Avg (4 gms): 2.8 / 7.5 

• MIA 3PT Defensive Ranks:

• Allowed 2nd most 3s made (15.3/gm)
• Allowed 2nd most 3s attempted (40.7/gm)
• Allowed 10th highest opposing 3PT% (37.6%)
• Last 3 Games: Allowed 12th highest opposing 3PT% (38.6%)
• 11th best matchup for SFs who shoot 3s (Jerami pretty much improved this ranking by 2 spots since he was the starting SF who played them last)
• Pros:
• Plays ton of minutes (36.6/gm)
• Hit 3 of 6 3PM vs MIA on 1/16
• Cons:
• Tbh it’s hard to think of Jerami as a person who you should be betting to hit the over on 3PM but this is the year of our Lord 2021 and many things have changed since last season where Jerami averaged half the points scored and half the 3PM and 3PA taken. Not sure there’s a con in here but it may be that it’s just more a psychological block than anything else. Jerami was 1.5 3PM earlier in the season but the books have since recognized him and moved him up to 2.5. Maybe I should too.

Personal Risk: $100 to win $122 (+122 FanDuel)

1/17/21 SUN

10pm EST IND @ LAC -6; O/U 219.5

PICK 1: P. George O3.5 3-Pointers Made (-130 FanDuel; -148 DraftKings; -140 BetMGM)

• P. George 3PT Stats:

• Covered O3.5 3PM in 10 of 12 games (83.3%) this season (incl. the last 4 in a row)
• 3s Made/3s Attempted
• Season Avg (12 gms): 4.3 / 8.3 (2nd in 3PM / 12th in 3PA)
• 8th best 3P%: 51.5%
• Jan Avg (7 gms): 4.7 / 8.7
• Dec Avg (5 gms): 3.6 / 7.6
• 1 Day Rest (9 gms): 3.9 / 7.6 (this season)
• 2019-20: 3.2 / 8 (26 gms)
• 2018-19: 3.8 / 9.9 (46 gms)
• 2017-18: 3.3 / 8.2 (44 gms)

• IND 3PT Defensive Ranks:

• Allowed 10th least 3s made (12/game)
• Allowed 2nd (tied) least 3s attempted (31.1/game)
• Allowed 6th highest opposing 3PT% (38.6%)
• Last 3 Games: Allowed 14th lowest opposing 3PT% (36.3%)
• 13th worst matchup for SGs who shoot 3s
• 3rd (tied) best matchup for SFs who shoot 3s
• Pros:
• Plays a good amount of minutes (34.6/gm)
• Shooting the 3 outside of this world
• Revenge game: I know PG hasn’t been on IND since ‘16-’17 but it seems that he always plays up whenever he faces the team that drafted him and that he played with for the majority of his career (7 seasons) which is weird b/c typically it’s only revenge when the team let you go not when you request a trade. Except for the ‘17-’18 season he played well vs IND 3PT-wise.
• Past IND game 3PM stats avgs:
• 2019-20 (1 gm): 7 / 16 
• 2018-19 (2 gms): 5 / 12
• 2017-18 (2 gms): 1 / 5
• Cons:
• IND is a good 3PT defense

Personal Risk: $100 to win $76.93 (-130 FanDuel)

10PM EST NO @ LAC -9.5; O/U 216

PICK 2: P. George O3.5 3-Pointers Made (-150 FanDuel; -134 DraftKings; -115 BetMGM)

• P. George 3PT Stats:

• Covered O3.5 3PM in 8 of 10 games (80%) this season (incl. the last 2 in a row)
• 3s Made/3s Attempted
• Season Avg (10 gms): 4.2 / 8.2 (2nd in 3PM / 13th in 3PA)
• 8th best 3P%: 51.2%
• Jan Avg (5 gms): 4.8 / 8.8
• Dec Avg (5 gms): 3.6 / 7.6
• 2 Days’ Rest (2 gms; 7 / 15): 3.5 / 7.5 (this season)
• 2019-20: 2.9 / 8 (8 gms)
• 2018-19: 4.3 / 10.6 (15 gms)
• 2017-18: 2.7 / 7.6 (14 gms)

• NO 3PT Defensive Ranks:

• Allowed most 3s made (15.9/game)
• Allowed most 3s attempted (43.9/game)
• Allowed 9th lowest opposing 3PT% (36.2%)
• Last 3 Games: Allowed 6th highest opposing 3PT% (40.6%)
• 6th best matchup for SGs who shoot 3s
• 7th best matchup for SFs who shoot 3s
• Pros:
• Plays a good amount of minutes (34.7/gm)
• Shooting the 3 outside of this world
• Cons:
• LAC are heavy faves which could mean less minutes for PG especially after averaging 38.8 for Jan games. This didn’t seem to be a problem against CHI in his last game where LAC was favored by 12.5.
• The total is not particularly high.

Personal Risk: $100 to win $86.96 (-115 BetMGM)

1/13/21 WED

10pm EST POR 3.5 @ SAC; O/U 236.5

PICK 1: C. McCollum O3.5 3-Pointers Made (-113 FanDuel; +100 DraftKings; +100 BetMGM)

• C. McCollum 3PT Stats:

• Covered O3.5 3PM in 7 of 10 games (70%) this season (incl. the last 4 in a row)
• 3s Made/3s Attempted
• Season Avg (10 gms): 4.9 / 11 (1st in 3PM / 2nd in 3PA)
• Jan Avg (6 gms): 4.5 / 10.7
• Dec Avg (4 gms): 5.5 / 11.5
• 1 Day Rest (7 gms; 30 / 75): 4.3 / 10.7 

• SAC 3PT Defensive Ranks:

• Allowed 4th most 3s made (14.3/game)
• Allowed 6th most 3s attempted (37.7/game)
• Allowed 9th highest opposing 3PT% (37.8%)
• Last 3 Games: Allowed 6th highest opposing 3PT% (42%)
• 4th best matchup vs SG 3PM
• Pros:
• Plays a good amount of minutes (34.5/gm)
• Half of the FGs (20.8/gm) he takes are 3s
• He played SAC just a few days ago on 1/9 and hit 6 of 11 3s. He also did it in only 29 minutes. He’s a bona fide beast.
• Cons:
• Honestly, I can’t think of any. I loved him at O2.5 but the books have responded and moved him to O3.5 albeit at a more reasonable price. Making four 3s in a game is average for CJ at this point.

Personal Risk: $200 to win $200 (+100 DraftKings / BetMGM)

@ContrarianStats

 Yeah, you're prob right. Need to refine the strat more. 

8PM EST SA -2.5 @ OKC; O/U 218

Pick 2: S. Gilgeous-Alexander O1.5 3-Pointers Made (-175 DraftKings; -175 BetMGM; -194 FanDuel)

Data & Reasoning:

• SGA 3PT Stats:
• Covered O1.5 3PM in 7 of 9 games (77.8%) this season (currently on a 7-game cover streak)
• 3s Made/3s Attempted
• Season Avg (9 gms): 2 / 5.7
• Jan Avg (5 gms): 2.2 / 5.8
• Dec Avg (5 gms): 2.8 / 5.5 
• SA 3PT Defensive Ranks:
• Allowed 12 (tied) most 3s made (12.8/game)
• Allowed 4th fewest 3s attempted (31.3/game)
• Allowed highest 3PT% (40.9%)
• Allows 7th highest 3PT% last 3 games (39.5%)
• 7th worst 3PT defense vs PGs 

Pros: 

• Primary scorer and ball handler
• Plays a good amount of minutes (33.6 min/game)
• In two most recent games, SGA has covered against BK (2/4) and NY (3/3) which are both good 3PT defenses and among the top 5 in 3PT defenses against PGs

Cons: 

• Not a prolific 3PT scorer. About a third of his FGA are 3s.

Personal Risk: $100 to win $58 (-175 DraftKings)

Personal Regret: When I began writing this and researching Brogdon for tonight’s play, FanDuel had him at +132. By the time I got to the end, the price moved against me to -102. I wanted to put in the play at +132 but I also wanted to practice self-discipline by going through the research and ensuring confidence in the play (even though I just bet him last night and another time last week). Also, BetMGM tends to not move their lines really on 3PM props so I should’ve just bet there but my finger took control and just clicked FanDuel’s “Place Bet” button. Ugh. It’s okay.

1/12/21 TUE

1030pm EST IND @ GSW -3.5; O/U 227.5

Pick 1: M. Brogdon O2.5 3-Pointers Made (-110 DraftKings; +100 BetMGM; -102 FanDuel)

Data & Reasoning:

• M. Brogdon 3PT Stats:
• Covered O1.5 3PM in 6 of 10 games (60%) this season
• 3s Made/3s Attempted
• Season Avg (10 gms): 3.2 / 6.9
• Jan Avg (5 gms): 4.4 / 8.2
• Dec Avg (5 gms): 2 / 5.6 
• GSW 3PT Defensive Ranks:
• Allowed 3rd most 3s made (14.7/game)
• Allowed 10th most 3s attempted (37.1/game)
• Allowed 3rd highest 3PT% (39.6%)
• Allows 16th highest 3PT% last 3 games (36.9%)

Pros: 

• Personal performance is dominant esp in Jan
• Primary scorer
• Plays tons of minutes (37.5 min/game; 40.6/game in Jan)
• Went 7-10 3s on 1/2/21 vs NYK which was one of the stingiest 3PT defenses at the time 
• Fellow backcourt mate, Oladipo, is out tonight which should increase the scoring volume for Brogdon

Cons: 

• Second night of back-to-back
• With Oladipo out, would this increase the defensive pressure on Brogdon as well?
• While only 28, Brogdon could be fatigued and might not have his best legs under him due to the high number of minutes played and being on the second night of a back-to-back
• It’s hard to compare 2021 Brogdon against Brogdons of season past because of his newfound increased role and skill, but his historical 3PT performance with 0 days of rest have not been great
• 2020-21: 2 /7 (1 game)
• 2019-20: 1.3 / 4 (4 games; Averaged 30.9 min in his first season at IND)
• 2018-19: 1.4 / 3.4 (8 games; Averaged 28.6 min in his last season at MIL)

Personal Risk: $100 to win $132 (-102 FanDuel)

Pick 5: O2.5 Brogdon 3PM (+140 BetMGM)

Pick 4: O1.5 Brook Lopez 3PM (-156 FanDuel)

Will update with stats later but wanted to get this one in last minute on here.