2022 College Football Bowl Season (SUPER PICKS INSIDE-All Games)

2022 College Football Bowl Record: 0-0 ATS (+$0.00)

Friday, December 16

Bahamas Bowl

Miami-Ohio Redhawks +10.5 ($1100 to win $1000)

The battle of 6-6 teams never gets old in College Football Bowl Season and neither does fading double digit favorites in the first weeks of Bowl Games. I don't have the data but it has been a winning formula for a while now. Fade them. What makes this one interesting is that Miami-Ohio beat North Texas in a Bowl Game last season while the UAB Blazers beat BYU in their Bowl Game last season. I don't really understand the big number for this one. I know Redhawks QB Brett Gabbert is transfering out of town but he has barely played all year.

Not a massive fan of the Miami-Ohio offense but they can run the ball and are 5-1 SU on the season when they run for 120+ yards in a game. UAB's defense has the #95 ranked run defense in the Country and have allowed 171.2 rushing yards per game. UAB has a tremendous rush attack and can really overwhelm opponents but Miami-Ohio had the best run defense in the MAC Conference this season and ranked #40 overall against the run in the Country this season. Time of possession is going to be huge in this one.

Miami Ohio comes into this game 7-0 ATS in their last seven neutral site games and 4-0 ATS in their last four Bowl Games. They won 3 of their last 4 games to make it into the Bowl Season and have some momentum. UAB is 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games but they finished the season 1-6 ATS in their last seven games which means opponents have found a way to keep games close. QB Aveon Smith is better than people think and he will be the difference. It also looks like UAB leading rusher DB DeWayne McBride will miss this game. I'm on it.

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Cure Bowl

Troy Trojans +1 ($1100 to win $1000)

We go from a battle of the 6-6 teams in the opener to a battle of the 11 win teams in this one and I think we're in for a good game. Troy would actually be 12-1 were it not for that insane Hail Mary play and win by Appalachian State much earlier this season to beat the Trojans on College GameDay weekend. Believe it or not this is the only game this Bowl Season between two Conference Champions. Winning Bowl Games has become the regular for Troy while UTSA have never won a Bowl Game and are starting to feel that pressure a bit. 

I'm actually stoked to see UTSA QB Frank Harris in action but a key note here is he loses his offensive coordinator so the dynamic could be a bit different. I don't expect Troy to completely stop UTSA but the Trojans have the #8 ranked points scored defense in the Nation at 17.5 points allowed per game and they have the #19 ranked total yards defense in the Country. The Trojans pass rush is going to be all over Harris in this one which is why I am excited to see what he can do. Troy QB Gunnar Watson was outstanding in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game a few weeks ago and is going up against a UTSA defense that ranks #101 in the Country against the pass and that has allowed 253.5 passing yards per game.

I know both teams have big time win streaks and did all of their losing in the first few weeks of the season but Troy have been here and done this before. UTSA have not (yet) and I think it matters. Troy is 6-0 ATS in their last six games played in the Month of December and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five Bowl Games. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven games versus CUSA Conference opponents. The CURE Bowl has been one of the best Bowl Games the last 4-5 season and this edition should be no different and could very well come down to the final drive. I like Troy to have a different outcome than the App State game.

I am on UTSA...Longer tenured coach...better passing game...gl on your other picks...

2-0 ATS (+$2000) this Bowl Season!

Will be posting tomorrow's games a bit later on. Congrats to all winners today.

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Saturday, December 16

Fenway Bowl

Louisville Cardinals -2 ($1100 to win $1000)

The Underdogs had their fun in the first two Bowl Games and now it's time for one of the favorites to gain a bit of attention here. The Fenway Bowl is finally happening after being cancelled the last two seasons due to Covid issues and this should be a blast. Too bad it starts at 11:00am ET. Before anyone bets on this game please understand that Louisville Head Coach Scott Satterfield, the one who got them here, is now the Head Coach of Cincinnati but won't be on the sidelines today. Luke Fickell is gone to Wisconsin. That means both schools come into this game with interim head coaches. It's Kerry Coombs for Cincinnati (Special Teams Coach) and Deion Branch (yes that Deion Branch from the Patriots) for Louisville. Wild stuff. Making things even more interesting is both teams come into this Bowl Game off a loss. Coin toss anyone?

I'm going with Louisville here. All this talk about RB Tyion Evans and WR Tyler Hudson being out for this game but Bowl Games are about "next man up" and who says the Cincinnati offense can do any scoring? Cincinnati has a tremendous defense but they can't stop the run and went 1-3 this season against teams that ran for 200+ yards against them. Yes Evans is out but Louisville has the #35 ranked running game in the Country and average 193.5 rushing yards per game. They had 23 rushing touchdowns on the season and Evans scored only 6 of them wich means 17 rushing touchdowns were scored by other players. That will be the difference in this one. 

The Bearcats come into this game on a 1-6-1 ATS run in their last eight games of the Regular Season and now their head coach is gone. They are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games played in December and 2-5 ATS in their last seven Bowl Games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral site games. Louisville played much better than Cincinnati down the stretch depiste losing to Kentucky in their last game and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games coming in and 4-0 ATS coming off a straight up loss. I'm going with Deion Branch and the Cardinals to win this.

@TheReelPhilD

 Good sweep bro! I took both picks as well! Good day!! 

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Las Vegas Bowl

Oregon State Beavers -8.5 ($1100 to win $1000)

The Las Vegas Bowl is a Bowl Game I've always been skeptical about because the environment for these kids is so different but I try not to put too much emphasis on that intangible. The spread is not where I wanted it to be right now and I thought it would go down quite a bit but I still think Oregon State win by double digits. They come into this game on a three game win streak and Florida is one loss away from handing Billy Napier a losing season in his first season in charge of the program. The Beavers were such a big disappointment last year in the LA Bowl losing 24-13 to Utah State in their first Bowl Game since 2013. Before last year 10 of the last 12 Las Vegas Bowls were wins by double digits by either team so there is potential here on a favorite that is below the double digit threshhold. 

Florida star QB Anthony Richardson is gone to the NFL and the belief is that Florida can still run the ball and control the clock but Oregon State has the #20 ranked run defense in the Country and have allowed only 114 rushing yards per game this season. The Gators are also missing other key players and if you've watched this Oregon State team play this season you know you need depth at every position. They are out for a bounce back performance. Dangerous. Oregon State went 8-0 this season when rushing for 175+ yards in a game and that bodes well here with Florida ranked #101 against the run and allowing 177.3 rushing yards per game. The Beavers should dominate in this one.

The Gators program in general is only 1-5 ATS in their last six games played in December, they are only 4-9 ATS in their last 13 Neutral Site games and they have covered the spread in only 3 of their last 11 non-conference games. Oregon State come into this game on a 6-0 ATS run to end the Regular Season, they are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games and like I keep mentioning the only purpose to their season will be to play better than they did last year in the LA Bowl. The public loves Florida here but they don't have the defense and are missing too many key players.

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LA Bowl

Fresno State Bulldogs -4 ($1100 to win $1000)

Let it sink in that a Mountain West team is favored over a PAC 12 team in this Bowl Game here. It has to be for a reason right? I love what Jake Dickert is doing at Wazzou and how he has completely re-shaped the program with a more defensive mindset but they seem to be snake bitten in Bowl Game and they are going up against a Fresno State program that has won three straight Bowl Games coming into this. Jeff Tedford started this winning streak and now he is back for another go at things in what should be one of the better games today. There is also a rumor that Fresno State is potentially looking to make a move to the PAC 12 Conference (yes a long shot I know) but if that's the case they have a lot on the line here.

Not too many people have watched Fresno State play this season but if you have you know how good QB Jake Haener has been when he plays. When he missed time (I believe it was four games) the offense struggled quite a bit but they found a way to keep winning games. They come into this game on an eight game win streak and I know I talked about Washington State being more of a defensive team now under the new regime but that takes time and they still rank #113 in the Country against the pass allowing 266.8 passing yards per game. If Wazzou find themselves playing from behind they'll struggle against a Fresno State secondary that ranks #23 in the Country allowing only 192.7 passing yards per game. This game will go back and forth but Haener is the difference for me.

Washington State comes into this game 0-4 ATS in their last four games played in December, they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games played on a Neutral Site and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five Bowl Games. They are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. I have to admit when it comes to the spread Fresno State have not been much better in Bowl Games but they come into this game 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games played versus PAC 12 Conference opponents. This won't be pretty but the Bulldogs get this done and cover late.

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LendingTree Bowl

Southern Miss Golden Eagles -6.5 ($1100 to win $1000)

This one seems almost too good to be true but I am sticking to my guns. Rice only won 5 games this season but were selected to play in a Bowl Game because there were not enough 6 win Bowl eligible teams to play in all the Bowl Games and they qualified based on Academic Progress Rate as a five win team. Will Hall somehow got Southern Miss to 6 wins and into a Bowl Game in his first season in charge of the Golden Eagles program and they have not won a Bowl Game since the 2016 New Orleans Bowl. If you go back and look at the last few LendingTree Bowl Games (the name has changed so many times) you will see that 7 of the last 8 played were big time blowouts and this should be no different.

There is a reason Rice only won five games this season and it has a lot to do with turnovers and the 30 times they turned the ball over in their 12 games. That's brutal and having not played for a few weeks we should see a ton more in this game too. People don't know this but Southern Miss has one of the best pass rushes in the Nation and that is not what an offense that turns the ball over the way Rice turns it over needs to see in this game. You also have to consider the fact that Rice is going to be missing players and they are just not a good team. I am not impressed by either team to be honest but turnovers are going to be the difference and Rice has no chance once they continue to lose the ball like they've done all season.

Rice comes into this game 1-4 ATS in their last five games played on a Neutral Site and their history in Bowl Games is a bit murky. Southern Miss don't have a good spread record in Bowl Games and it's been a while since they've won one but they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games versus non-conference opponents dating back to the last few seasons and come into the Bowl Season with a 4-1-1 ATS record in their last six games. Not a must watch game by any means but Rice doesn't belong here and it's going to show. Law of averages in football never fails. Ball don't lie.

Good job bro 

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New Mexico Bowl

Southern Methodist Mustangs -4 ($1100 to win $1000)

I know we have kind of hit 'Favorite' overkill by now today but some of these lines are just so way off one way or another and this is another one of those. BYU is playing in their final game before becoming members of the Big 12 Conference next season. Sure both teams have somethign to prove here and BYU is going to want to play a lot better than they did in their awful Bowl Game last season in the Independence Bowl and I just can't trust them. A coupe of tools I use for capping College Football Bowl Games and both of them come into play here. 1) Teams coming into the Bowl Season Hot/Cold and 2) Teams coming into the Bowl Season with significant injuries or significant players sitting out. SMU is hot right now. BYU is missing a star player.

Which star player is BYU missing for this game? None other than QB Jaren Hall who threw for 3171 yards on the season for 31 Touchdowns and 6 interceptions and a QB Rating of 160.8 while also rushing for 348 yards and 3 touchdowns. The SMU defense is terrible but that's a big loss here for the Cougars and no other quarterback has attempted a single pass for the Cougs yet this season. That's huge. I checked the numbers and the public really likes BYU to cover this spread but I am not sure they are taking this into consideration at all. You have to think if this thing turns into a shootout that BYU can certainly put some points on the board but it just won't be enough and they'll be off to the Big 12 with another Bowl Game loss.

The Cougars come into this game 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games played in December and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games played on a Neutral Site. They are 2-6 ATS in their last eight Bowl Games, 2-6 ATS in their last eight games versus non-conference opponents and are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall coming in. Rhett Lashlee has the SMU Mustangs playing really well and they come into this game having won four of their last five games. I see SMU pulling away late although BYU won't go down without a fight.

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Frisco Bowl

North Texas Mean Green +10.5 ($1100 to win $1000)

The Golden rule of early college football Bowl Games comes into play here the same way it did in the Miami-Ohio vs UAB matchup yesterday. Always fade the double digit favorites in these early Bowl Games and more often than not in every Bowl Game. Oddsmakers have it wrong. The one and only reason this line is so jacked up is because North Texas fired their Head Coach Seth Littrell after their Conference USA Championship Game loss to Texas-San Antonio. All signs point to North Texas and their awful Bowl record for the timing of the change as this program comes into this game having lost five straight Bowl Games. They are not here to compete, they are here to win and the move sent that message to the players. Boise State has not won a Bowl game since 2017 so this is interesting.

You can bet your bottom dollar we are going to see some points in this one. North Texas has a pretty horrendous defense but they also have an offense that score on pretty much every drive. Boise State's defense is one of the best in the Country and a lot of it has to do with who they play every week but the times they have struggled this season is when playing against teams who can run the ball on them. North Texas has a veteran QB and they have the #24 ranked rushing attack in the Nation averaging 200.1 rushing yards per game. Are we really guaranteed to see Boise State be super effective on offense? They looked pretty awful offensively in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game and it's clear something is a bit off. This will be a close one.

One thing I know about North Texas is they play at the level of their opponent and that shows in their 6-1 ATS record in their last seven games versus a team with a winning record. Their Bowl Game history SU and ATS speaks for itself but as mentioned earlier they made a coaching change to address this. Right here, right now. Boise State are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games played in December. I am not sure what their mindset will be but all the pressure is on them to win their first Bowl Game since 2017 while North Texas come in motivated to end their five game Bowl game losing streak. I am going with UNT to pull off the massive upset.

Thanks for the write up bro 

What's your best bets for tomorrow?

@chillinghard09

 Will be posting later tonight. 

Keep crushing it 

Damn Phil! Nice job fella! Thanks for sharing

@TheReelPhilD

 Thanks for your posts.

Great day!! What are the rest of your picks for bowl season? Been following you and you did great thanks 

Great picks...appreciation the write-ups!  

BOWL SEASON RECAP

Miami-Ohio +10.5

Troy +1

Louisville -2

Oregon State -8.5

Fresno State -4

Southern Miss -6.5

Southern Methodist -4

North Texas +10.5

7-1 ATS (+$5900) this Bowl Season!

We are back on Monday. Congrats to all those who won money today!

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Monday, December 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl

Marshall Thundering Herd -12 ($1100 to win $1000)

I am kind of breaking my own rule here of betting on double digit favorites in the first two weeks of the Bowl Season. It's almost always a pure fade and I am 2-0 ATS (+$2000) fading those this Bowl Season but I am flipping the script for this one. Connecticut has an incredible story. They really do. This program was 1-5 about midway through the season before realing off 5 straight wins and going 1-5 in their last six games to become Bowl Eligible under Head Coach Jim Mora Jr. That's a fairytale of sorts but Marshall are playing a bit out of their tier here and should be playing much later in the Bowl Season. Don't forget they beat Notre Dame earlier this season but had some bad losses after that before winning their final four games of the Regular Season. The only two Myrtle Beach Bowls ever were decided by 28 points (inaugural) and 13 points (last season) so I like the Thundering Herd to continue that streak of double digit wins.

Marshall has one of the best defenses in the Country ranking #9 in total yards allowed per game, #5 in rushing yards allowed per game and #7 in points per game allowed and that's a problem for this Connecticut team that ranks #125 in total yards per game and that mostly runs the ball at 194.8 rushing yards per game. They are predictable and don't have much going on in the passing game. This will allow Marshall to load the box and find penetration when the Huskies do decide to drop back and pass. Go back and look at the Thundering Herd's win over Notre Dame and see the plays they made in that game. I talked about turnovers being a factor for Rice in the Southern Miss-Rice Bowl Game and sure enough it decided the spread. This will be the same. Marshall has a tremendous turnover forcing defense while Connecticut have 2+ turnovers in a game seven times this season.

The Thundering Herd come into this game 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Bowl Games and they actually went 12-1 SU in Bowl Games during a span of games that ended in 2018. They've been there and done that. Connecticut will be the darlings of the betting public because they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games coming in and have been tremendous against non-conference opponents but they lack experience and depth and are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games played in December and 0-4 ATS in their last four games played on a Neutral Site. Expect Marshall to get things done on both sides of the ball. This is a really good team.

Love Marshall tomorrow. They roll let’s gooo

Thanks for the pick reelphil let's keep up the win streak;; 

Yes Marshall Defense caught my eye 8 weeks ago @ JMU but 12 is alot to cover.  28-6

keep killin it PHILD