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Atl
+6...see the Hawks as a sneaky/undervalued team...loss of Josh Smith
will get a lot of attention but they replaced him with arguably a better
player in Paul Millsap. Quite a bit of turnover on the Dallas roster,
don't think they've upgraded a weak defense, will Monta Ellis leave any
shots for Dirk? Let's take the points.
Denver/Sac O204...Sac a traditionally poor defensive team...look for Denver's defense to be down a couple notches with the loss of Iguodala...certainly didn't upgrade defense with Nate Robinson and JJ Hickson. i see these 2 teams getting up and down tonite...5 of last 6 in series have gone Over tonite's posted total. Also lean to Denver +2.5, they've won 9 straight H2H. GL! |
Timmy_the_Greek | 1 |
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trying to get out in front of the line moves, so locking in a couple of games before they move against me...trying to anticipate the market a bit and get some value...
Seattle -2.5 figure there will be plenty of seattle money this week, as they've looked nothing short of dominant thus far. meanwhile houston hasn't been overly impressive, even before yesterday's stink bomb at baltimore. lay the 2.5 now before it goes 3, 3.5. Arizona +3 disappointed in the cards yesterday as i expected them to at least give the saints a good game. but i want nothing to do with this bucs team, 1-8 SU in their last 9 and some dissension in the ranks. TB doesnt have a great track record at home the past few yrs, plus look for a bounce-back from a solid arizona defense against a below avg offense. SD +2 i'm not ready to jump on the dallas bandwagon just yet. SD has looked much better than i expected so far, and were 15 seconds away from stealing one yesterday in spite of the terrible schedule spot (b2b east coast 1 pm games). McCoy has handed the keys to Rivers, and he's performed well so far, and i look for him to exploit what i think is a weak dallas secondary. comments welcome, good luck everyone! |
Timmy_the_Greek | 1 |
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also like LSU at home tonite...Auburn's defense has been fortunate thus far when you look at their pts allowed given their yds allowed...marshall making his first road start in baton rouge at night...waiting for a 16'...
GL! |
Timmy_the_Greek | 3 |
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good write-ups! i'm with you on these. can't trust carolina in what figures to be a close game. plus you have to like fading the cowboys at home...stl tends to hang around in this type of game...like their pass rush vs the dallas OL...and dallas hasnt won by margin very much the past 2 seasons, so stl should be in position at the end.
GL! |
EastsideBangers | 17 |
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with you on Troy and SJ St! GL to us!
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dilaudid8 | 12 |
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SJ St +4
gotta take a shot with a team that's 21-6 ATS over the past 2+ seasons and 16-5 ATS in their L21 gms on the road. The Gophers have looked good vs a very weak schedule so far, and have their conference opener on deck. Might be tough for Minny to be focused for their 4th straight non-conf game. SJ St will be missing top WR Grigsby, but they have a good QB in Fales and a solid enough offense to keep them in this one. Troy +14 I don't think Miss St has the offense to run away and hide in this one. Troy is used to stepping up in class and playing SEC teams on the road, so they won't be intimidated. Troy covered LY vs Miss St and out-gained them by 115 yds. They've also covered at Tennessee and at Arkansas the past 2 seasons. My biggest worry in a game like this is turnovers, but with Corey Robinson and Deon Anthony, i think Troy's offense has a good shot at keeping them in this one til the end. GL! |
Timmy_the_Greek | 3 |
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you also have to like the fact that it's a thursday game. not sure of the exact o/u record, but these games tend to be sloppy and stay Under. i dont see KC having the type of quick strike passing offense that can take advantage of philly's secondary either. GL |
kjmontalv | 13 |
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Florida -3...the Gators havent been a good ATS team when laying big points, but they are used to playing in and grinding out close victories. not ready to jump on the Miami bandwagon just yet, this was an awful run defense last season (in the ACC no less) and will be facing an offense that will try to run it down their throat. Florida the better overall team from the better conference.
Miami-Ohio +17.5...can't turn down that many points vs Kentucky, who is still trying to figure out their new up-tempo offense and QB situation. just don't see them running away and hiding in this one; this isn't your typical upper-echelon SEC team that can walk in and blow out any non-AQ opponent. the hook makes it even better. GL everyone! |
Timmy_the_Greek | 2 |
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Philly/Arizona U8
The two offenses have combined for 8 runs in the first 2 games of the series, and i don't foresee things getting any easier tonight. Cliff Lee has been solid as usual, with a 40:7 K:BB and 5 QS in 7 appearances. Trevor Cahill has been a bit more surprising, going 7+ IP in 4 of his last 5 starts, sporting a 2.80 ERA, while the DBacks have gone 6-1 U in his starts. Perhaps he's out-pitching his skills, but I'm going to ride the train til it crashes. Miami/LAD U7 Two pretty weak offenses (Miami easily last in NL in OPS, LA has scored <= 3 runs in 7 of their last 10) and two pretty solid SP's. Kevin Slowey has 5 QS in his last 6 outings, has a 36:8 K:BB, and the Marlins are 6-1 U in his starts. Meanwhile Ryu has rung up a 48:12 K:BB in only 43 IP while holding opponents to a <.300 OBP. We have a favorable ump (Kulpa 46-25 U the past 3 seasons) and a night game on the West Coast. Also have to look at Miami +182...I'm certainly not laying -190+ with an LAD team that is 1-9 in their L10 and is already down 14 units on the season. GL! |
Timmy_the_Greek | 1 |
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Washington +6 This is the role you look to 'play on' the Wizards--as a dog, stepping up in class. Washington owns SU/ATS wins over the likes of Denver, Houston, Brooklyn, NYK and LAC in the past month. Their short term ATS skid (3-5 L8G) has largely come as a favorite, a role that they've struggled with. But I think it's created some value here. Their previous 2 matchups with Brooklyn this season were a 115-113 OT loss and an 89-74 win. The Wizards are a solid defensive team and are 17-10-1 ATS in road games, 22-6-1 vs >.500 opponents, and 7-3 at NJ/Brk. The Nets have a meeting @ Atl tomorrow night, who is a half game behind them in the conference standings...so there's the possibility of a 'look ahead' here. GL! |
Timmy_the_Greek | 1 |
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LAL -2
LA's biggest problem in their latest run has been stepping up in class (blowout losses to the likes of OKC, Miami, LAC, Boston). The Hornets certainly don't qualify as that type of team, and they have had their own issues vs quality teams as they are 5-12 at home vs >.500 opponents. The Lakers should be focused coming off of last nite's butt-kicking, and should have Kobe, MWP and D12 in the line-up. GL! |
Timmy_the_Greek | 1 |
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Denver -5 Sure it's square, but I still think there's value with the Nuggets. They've won the previous 2 matchups this season by 28 and 25 points. Denver owns the NBA's best transition offense while Sacto is among the league's worst in transition defense. The Nuggets also hit the offensive glass better than any other team, while the Kings are among the worst in terms of defensive rebounding (Denver with 51-40 and 52-42 rebounding edges in 1st 2 matchups). The Kings are also awful protecting the paint, another spot where the Denver offense is successful. I don't worry about Denver in the 2nd night of B2B's, as they are one of the NBA's deepest teams and have won 11 of their last 16 in that role. GL! |
Timmy_the_Greek | 2 |
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Philly/Wash U 186
Two of the NBA's least efficient offenses, and both teams do a good job of limiting easy transition buckets. Philly has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the total, while Washington is 18-7-1 to the Under in their last 26. The Wizards quietly play very solid defense, and should be able to shut down the Sixers, even if Nene is a no-go. GL! |
Timmy_the_Greek | 1 |
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Z-Bo is doubtful with a sprained ankle...
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swolegame12 | 7 |
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Brk/NOH U185
These are the NBA's 2 slowest teams--by far--in terms of pace. The Nets have played 7 games recently vs other slow teams (Memphis 2x, Indiana, Detroit, Orlando, Chicago, NYK) and have gone 5-1-1 Under the total. They are 16-8 to the Under on the road, and have played 7 Unders in their past 10 games. With Joe Johnson a GTD and D-Will nursing two sore ankles (he recently admitted that his ankles hurt more as the game wears on, limiting his effectiveness), along with the offensively challenged Hornets on the other side of the equation, I see this one staying Under 185. Posted Record YTD: 18-10 plays 6-4 leans GL! |
Timmy_the_Greek | 1 |
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Great write-ups! Thanks for sharing.
GL! |
Gimmmethatjuice | 7 |
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Indiana -4.5
Not much to say about this one...the Pacers are on fire right now, and the Pistons have had no answers for them this season. Indiana has won the previous 3 H2H match-ups 88-77, 98-79 and 114-82. Indiana has won their first 2 games out of the break by >30, so they've had the opportunity to rest starters. Meanwhile Detroit could be without Brandon Knight again tonight. The Pacers are 13-5 ATS vs Detroit, 7-3 in the 2nd nite of B2B games, and 12-2 as a short favorite (1-4.5 pts). Let's ride the train while we can... Posted Record YTD: 17-10 plays 6-4 leans GL! |
Timmy_the_Greek | 2 |
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Thanks! Just trying to stay on the grind.
Been betting the NBA a couple of years now GL! |
Timmy_the_Greek | 5 |
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Dallas -1
Gotta go with the Mavs, who have had success in this price range (9-4 in games lined 1-2.5) and vs mediocre-to-bad opponents. In the past month they've won and covered vs Orlando (twice), Sacto, Portland, Phx (twice), and Minn. They aren't exactly beating the league's elite, but they are taking care of business, winning 4 of these games by double digits. The Mavs have scored >100 in their last 5 games and 8 of their last 10, and the Hornets are among the NBA's worst teams in terms of defensive efficiency. Posted Record YTD: 16-10 plays 6-4 leans GL! |
Timmy_the_Greek | 5 |
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NYK/Ind U185.5
Keep it simple--their first 2 meetings this season stayed well Under the total (157 and 164 combined points). Both teams are among the slowest in the NBA in terms of pace, and Indiana has the league's best defense in terms of pts/possession. The Knicks score a very high % of their points from beyond the arc, and the Pacers own the NBA's best 3-pt defense. Both teams also limit easy transition baskets. Basically, i don't see a ton of easy points being scored in this one, i think it's going to be a playoff-type grinder. Also lean to OKC tonight...they've blown out Houston in their previous 2 matchups, holding the Rockets to <33% from beyond the arc (16/51), forcing 40 TOs, while Harden has shot 9/33 FGs. The Thunder have been a bit spotty on the road lately, but I see them coming out strong following a couple of disappointing pre-ASB losses. Posted Record YTD: 16-9 plays 6-3 leans GL! |
Timmy_the_Greek | 2 |
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