kjmontalv

I would say almost always the pitcher. However, I do not put too much weight on whether a lineup is getting a look at a pitcher for the first time . There's more significant factors in my opinion when considering sides/totals in baseball. Hope that helps

Any records or units?

lol ..by professional analysis you mean an entertaining read coupled with a shitty pick

I like the picks. Keep it up buddy!

I dont like betting vs Gallardo but I expect the bats to come alive for the Pads after showing much resolve last night. +150 with the best team in baseball..enough said in regards to the Cards. GL to me and happy betting! 

1-1 last night with a 9-7 record since posting. I wrote about half my entries with write-ups and the internet crashed so I'm just gonna dish the picks out. Insight always appreciated.

XAV +1.5

BAY -5.5

VILL -2.5

FSU +9

..Also considering ORST, waiting for the line to climb in my favor. Stay tuned. Big card today and I haven't finished capping the games I like. Good luck everybody!

 

2-2-1 last night..ouch missed the ASU game by the hook, essentially the last free throw of the game cost me. I was dead on about the over, but didn't have the sac to follow up on it. PSU came storming back for the push. Unfortunately with 72 games to look over the night before I didn't have time to bet the number @ 3.5, which would've got me the win. I don't know how these fucking pros go thru a THUR or SAT night slate to pick out the best games and still have time to bet them early. There's only so much time and so many fucking games. I guess its because I cap the ol' fashioned way...coffee, pencil, and notebook. Ok I'm done ranting. Slate is small for tonight so I can take a breather.

MILW -4

Not an ideal scheduling spot with DET having nearly a week off while MILW has only a day rest following a 3 game road swing. Vegas has these teams nearly identical in terms of power ranking based on common opponents, but I see some value in the matchup, as well as an unforeseen home edge by the bookmakers. MILW will be playing in the downtown gym (as opposed to on campus) where it has garnered tremendous success since 2003...try 97-39 including the post season. "The Cell" is in the heart of downtown and you can bet that on a FRI night it will be stacked. Now, MILW likes to get to the line, which exposes one of DET weaknesses. They allow opponents an average of 28 free throws a game. When you get a quarter of your points from the charity stripe, that is a huge advantage. MILW also gets a third of their points from downtown. Another DET weakness as they allow opponents to shoot almost 33% from there. Hopefully the quick turnaround doesn't affect MILW too much. They are also coming off an embarrassing effort @ Wright St, so I expect them to be focused.

IONA -6

I wanted so many reasons to take QUIN here, but after a careful look I was convinced to take IONA. This is a classic defense v. offense matchup, and normally I would take the defense, but the situation lines up for IONA. Not only is this a quick turnaround revenge spot from two weeks ago (also from last year), but this win will decide who leaps to 1st place in the conference standings. In this situation I favor the home team. QUIN will dominate the boards, but I'm suspect if they can keep IONA to 42% or less like their last matchup. If IONA plays even an iota of defense and keeps the pace high, they should easily cover.

Man I am gonna regret not taking that over the way things are looking, especially if ASU doesn't cover . 2-1-1 so far. Need ASU to keep myself in the winning column

Adding ASU -4.5

I did a bit of a turnaround and am going to lay the points. I see line value and its a great situation. Don't have time for detailed write up, but I wish you all and myself the best for tonight!

Really looking closely @ the OU for the ASU game currently @ 136 @ my book. I like the situation for ASU but UTA matches up pretty well. The problem is UTA stats might be a bit skewed considering how easy their schedule has been in comparison. This is also a prime sandwich spot for UTA considering they upset UCLA last game and face the number one team after this game. They seem to always keep this game close which is leaning me more towards the over. The line move down has threw me off a bit, but according to my sources the public likes the under in this game...interesting. Stay tuned and good luck folks!

Another 3-2 night. Lesson learned regarding Akron...be wary betting against quality conference teams coming off embarrassing losses @ home. Akron has won the MAC conference title 7 times, and they were focused last night. If I had bought the best line on UMASS, I would've covered, but then again, risking to buy a team late (I buy overnight) can be risky as well. On to the next!

NEOM -1.5

It was hard to gauge these teams in term of line value because there's little information and no common opponents but from a pure power ranking perspective NEOM should be favored about 4 pts. DEN has played poor on the road and their strengths are handling the ball and the 3pt shot. NEOM by contrast ranks 85th in opp ASST/TOV and 113th in opp 3P/G. Both teams are poor in rebounding which favors NEOM as they like to push the pace and a more effective shooting squad.

WMU +5

KENT has a dominate history @ home, especially against WMU, but this is not and ideal spot for them. WMU off a disappointing loss @ home versus arguably the worst team in the MAC; a game in which they had a 15 point lead and coughed up. I have WMU rated a hair better than KENT, KENT's home advantage is almost negligible, while WMU has proven to be tough on the road. KENT is also a team that heavily depends on the ball (ranked 70th in % of pts from 3pt), while WMU is 65th in 3pt% allowed. WMU will have to be careful of protecting the ball, something in which KENT can exploit, but following the 2 straight losses in which they've given up 30+ TOV, I expect them to work on this issue.

USM -5

It's about time this line moved, I was getting worried it would drop! ODU is playing the best basketball of the season, but they will simply be overmatched in this contest and come back to earth. I see tremendous line value with USM and I believe ODU's current streak has provided it. ODU's best guard is coming off an ankle injury and I don't expect him to be 100%.

PSU -4

Great spot for PSU catching NEB off a huge upset. A bit of a difference between Vegas' "opinion" and most power ratings. If you agree with Vegas, PSU should be about a 6 pt fav, according to most PR's the line should be closer -2.5 or so. I've been betting against PSU for most of the season, but this is simply a good spot to back them. They need a BIG 10 win, and what better chance versus one of the weaker teams in the conference who are overrated coming off the big win. Not a whole lot of matchup angles on this, but there is definitely line value and a great spot for the lions. 

 

 

 

Hey thanks gaming! Looks like Akron came out with purpose following that embarrassing loss @ home v. Toledo. Adding one more play..

NEV +3
This is a team that can flat out bring it on the road. I like the fact they've had nearly a week off and following this game is their hardest stretch of the season. Coach knows this is a must win given the circumstances. I see some value on the NEV side after the pt jump . Take the Wolfpack

3-2 yesterday..Mizzou dropped the ball late and Butler definitely had a chance for a backdoor..on to the next. Gonna make it quick because games are about to start.

UMASS +2
I go the worst number but I still feel strongly about the bet. +3.5 is an auto fire for me. Anyways I'm getting some line value and RICH hasn't really proven they can hang with the big boys. Yes they beat an overrated GON team on a neutral floor, but their most quality home win was DAY; a game in which they were very fortunate to win.

EMU -3.5
There's been crazy line movement on this game but it settled right where I bought it. Akron is a grimy grind-it-out type team. Problem is EMU's specialty is creating turnovers and Akron has major problems taking care of the ball. Not mention Akron is playing with a target on their back after winning the MAC last year.

UGA -5.5
SCAR just lost their starting PG and I don't see this team improving. I happen to think this team is in disarray as Coach Martin had to publicly apologize for his strong emotional showing last time out. UGA playing their best ball of the season and I think they keep the momentum going from the ARK win rather than flatten out.

SBON -2.5
Finally I was rewarded for betting early! Sheesh...La Salle is playing great but they're one of those teams that have Home/Away dichotomy issues. SBON can realistically be undefeated in conference play, but they need to make their free throws! So Basic! They play really well at home and I expect them to cover.

Also have leans on MIA +4 and the over in IOWA/MICH. GL everybody! 

Mizzou +5
Can you really trust an LSU squad with losses to TEN and URI @ home?! Mizzou has had a weaker schedule and thats about the only positive I can find with this underachieving LSU squad. The value lies with Mizzou, which I have power rated a step high than LSU.

K State +5
Tex coming off their biggest win of the season while K St blew out WVU in what I thought was a let down spot. K St has dominated the series recently and I think that continues today. Tex has a weak home edge and at some point they have to fall back to earth.

Ga Tech +4
I got the bad number but I don't understand the big line move here. BC has been horrible and last year the number was at -4,5 @ BC with virtually the same teams. I understand BC has had one of the toughest schedules in the country but GT is simply the better team right now. Of the 17 matchups between these teams 13 have been decided by <10 and 10 have been decided by <4, including 2 OT.

NW +3.5
I originally passed on this game while doing my research last night, but the big line move has made NW a viable bet catching more than a poss @ home. Purdue has been one of the top road teams in recent memory but its not enough to warrant a big line move. I know NW is coming off a big win but this team has been playing great defense and will give it their all @ home. too much line value to pass up.

BUT +5.5
Providence has proven themselves a viable contender in the BE. I see the teams pretty equal from a power rating perspective but this is more of a situational play for me. Prov coming off their biggest win while Butler got the monkey off their back with their first conference win. Butler has played 6 OT games, 1 shy of tying their season record, so I think they've been a bit unfortunate. I also see a bit of line value, but more importantly, I think a rejuvenated Butler team is catching Providence at the ideal time.

...I know four rd dogs, but these are my strongest plays. GL everybody

You definitely did your homework. The line may not be as inflated as you think because K State is on a 9-1 spread run. However, I do agree with your pick and analysis. Tex coming off arguably their biggest win of the season and the fact K State blew out WVU in a prime let down spot, tells me this team is exceeding expectations. There are some angles pointing towards Tex including a triple revenge from last year and the fact they've had a tougher schedule, but its not enough to convince me. Tex also has a weak home edge and ISU is their only only notable home win. TTU and VAN aren't exactly quality teams and Okla exposed them in a very winnable game. GL my man! Lets ride this K State wave till it crashes!

Agreed. raps better on the road and pissed. 

If the point you're making is line value consider the line opened @ -160 in favor of SD. I hear what you're saying though. I'm waiting to see if this line drops anymore and lineups.

I like the Cubs in this spot as well. The only thing holding me back is ATL's motivation to clinch and Maholm's dominate history @ Wrigley (including his time as a Cub). He's obviously comfortable pitching here. BOL

Why so much juice on a sub par team? Here's my thoughts..

1) LAD clinched the division last night for the first time in 4 years. The ARZ "pool party" debacle is indicative of where this team's spirits are.

2) E. Volquez is simply a bad pitcher. After being released by SD, the Dodgers signed him and the results haven't been exactly promising (0-1, 5.74 ERA). Does anyone really believe this guy is going to start in the playoffs? This is simply a consolation, again, testament to the staff's mindset right now. LAD are on cruise control, not a smart team to back if that is the case.

3) Once again the Padres find themselves finishing strong despite a losing record. They have won 11 of 14 and coming home from an impressive series @ PNC. Throw in the fact Robbie Erlin has been solid since his call-up and I think we can conclude the Padres should be justifiably favorites here...

But -133? Here's the kicker..it opened @ -160, so are we getting line value here? Are the Padres the team to back in this spot despite the travel? I'd like to hear your thoughts. Definitely an obscure line.

Great write up. Insightful and detailed. I wanna go big on this too but I'm primarily a baseball bettor so much of my energy and focus is on a very exciting finish to the MLB season. Lets get this yo!