TurnandBurn2023

Langs 200 dime pick is Detroit.  

He is typically a fade, but hasn't actually been bad lately.  

@wacco

 OTTOMATIC – W37 L12 T1 LW 5-0
Week 11 Picks: CIN CLE DET SF LAR
IMTHECAPT – W36 L12 T2 LW 1-3-1
Week 11 Picks: CLE TN LV SEA KC
2WONG1WANG – W35 L15 T0 LW 4-1
Week 11 Picks: CLE GB NYG BUF KC
REAL STIFF – W34 L15 T1 LW 4-0-1
Week 11 Picks: LAC DET MIA CAR KC
CONSENSUS PIXS – W33 L14 T3 LW 3-1-1
Week 11 Picks: CIN LAC DAL DEN KC
UNDERGROUND1 – W34 L15 T1 LW 2-2-1
Week 11 Picks: LAC CHI DAL SF MIN
TERMINATORS – W33 L15 T2 LW 2-2-1
Week 11 Picks: CIN HOU GB TB SEA

Leaderboard picks

@wacco

 You have to assume at some point the top 5 picks will have a bad week, historically the percentage for the top 5 picks are no where near what it is right now, but who knows.  There is typically a week somewhere down the road the top 5 goes 0-5.

Not trying to influence, just a take. 

@Shortporch

 Ottos picks are Cin, Clev, Det,SF,Rams

@MITM

 Good stuff.  Thank you for the reply.  Good luck and I always enjoy reading your insight. 

This system reminds me of the John Morrison system.  Same concept?  Same parameters? or are you using your own criteria?

@Riggs-MLB-Picks

 Riggs, respect your picks.  Been following since the beginning.  Seem confident on the cubs today, but doesn't it seem odd that Miami opened as a favorite on a 5 game losing streak?  Any insight on your confidence on the cubbies?

Well done Joe.  Seriously unreal.  Good stuff.  Thank you for sharing!

NOT excluding the covid year.

Road teams in first round Game 6s are 17-11 SU & 20-8 ATS in the last six seasons. Additionally, holding home teams to just 94.0 PPG, games have gone UNDER the total in 20 out of 28. Road teams in this scenario looking to close out a series are 11-6 SU & ATS.

#2 seeded teams are on a strong run of 37-6 SU & 28-15 ATS when favored by 4.5 points or more.

Road favorites of 4.5 points or more in a series closeout scenario are 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS since the start of the ’13 postseason.

Picks : Boston -7 and Under 231.  

Just food for thought.

Following this system.  So, Padres and Cubs- 3.45 to 6.39, Cards and Giants- 6.19 to 3.2... these are extremely close to qualifying as plays.  In this cases do you play or not?

Sticking with the plan tonight. 
Lakers, Miami, Denver.   
200 each. 

3-2 so far.  

For those who care, First time posting plays. My system hasn't been great as of the last two months, but taking trends into account with these plays. 

• Home teams that lost in Game 1 of a first-round series are just 7-5 SU & 3-8-1 ATS since ’13. Qualifying plays: Knicks + 6, Clippers +8, Miami +9, Lakers -1

• #4 seeds are just 13-21 SU & 11-23 ATS since 2013 in the game following a loss. Plays: Knicks, Clippers

• Road favorites of 4.5 points or more are 37-8 SU and 30-14-1 ATS (68.2%) last 45. Plays: Sixers -4.5

• the lowest totaled first-round playoff games over the last four postseasons, 218 or less, UNDER the total is 45-27-3 (62.5%). Plays: Cavs UNDER and Sixers UNDER

• home teams that won in Game One of a first-round series are 26-7 SU and 24-9 ATS (72.7%) since ’16. Plays: Boston -10.5 and Denver -8.5

• Game Twos with double-digit home favorites have gone UNDER the total at a 12-3 (80%) clip since ’13, with only four of the visiting foes eclipsing 100 points. Plays : Boston Under

• -  First-round Game Three home teams went just 1-7 SU and ATS (12.5%) in 2022 and are now just 6-18 SU and 7-17 ATS (29.2%) since 2019. Plays: Sixers -4.5, Kings +7 (HUGE PLAY FOR ME), possibly Pheonix.

• 4 seeds are 15-33 ATS after a loss – Plays: Knicks +6, Clippers +8

• Game 2 with double digit home favorite are 11-3 ATS to UNDER the total. Plays: Boston UNDER game total.

Final Plays:

• Knicks +6 and game UNDER 214
• Clippers +8
• Miami +9
• Lakers -1
• Sixers -4.5 Game three and UNDER 208.5
• Boston -10 and UNDER 230.5
• Denver -8.5
• Kings +7 (LARGE)

Just thought I would join the forum for once.  Would love any thoughts or feedback. 

@Ragone15

 I remember Calbear, Manram, some others will come to me.   

@Ragone15

 I remember Calbear, Manram, some others will come to me.   

Finster would you say that you take majority favorites over the course of the season?  I just hate laying that much on moneylines

All good stuff.  Might start posting my projected plays to see how it goes or if anyone even cares to look.  I have done well, just off lately. 

@LuckyCoin

 Good stuff Lucky.  I do have a system, just need to stick to it and be more selective.  Chasing is a bitch and throws you off course quick, and the desire to win quick money makes you pick games you aren’t sure about because they are the only thing to bet on.  Patience and being selective .  Went 1-1 last night with final four.  Won on FAU, but I knew UConn was the right side, but decided to bet opposite because I thought it was too many points to lay.  Should have been a pass for me, but bet Miami and well there we go.  Mind is playing tricks on me lately.  

Willing to share percentage of winnings legit. 

@jpot34

 Words of wisdom I know, and I can afford to pay, it’s just not sitting well with me