vegasjimmy

A great post and I could not agree more. Pats are the solid value play here because of the Jax game and the the Eagles/Minny game. But I like them much more than the line value. Pats win by double digits and it might be over by HT. I like the over too for a small play but Pats will crush the Eagles in this spot. Their gameplan is to offensively destroy the Eagles early and often and not rely on Brady to work his magic with 2 minutes left. You heard it here.

I love the 49ers in this game and am betting heavy on the ML and here are some interesting facts to chew on...

San Francisco always has a shot and as an organization they are a perfect 5-0 SU in Super Bowls. They are 4-1 ATS in those games and were listed as the favorite each time. Three of the five wins were blowouts as each time they had the far superior offense and could just turn games on their head with big plays. That’s how the 2012-13 49ers are built and they do not want to be known as the ones that gave this franchise their first Super Bowl loss.

Keep these in mind if you’re leaning on San Francisco winning

• The NFC is 5-0 ATS in the last five Super Bowls and 14-7-2 ATS in the last 23 years
• Favorites have won 31 of the 46 Super Bowls straight up.
• Super Bowl favorites of 4 points or less that have gone on to win the game are 6-1-1 ATS (ie if San Fran wins, the spread likely won’t matter)

CC12, you can't ignore 39-4-2 straight up record. Sorry pal. Bet the Ravens, the matchups do not favor you there either.

Europa, I would lay the 3.5 but the hook is killing me and I'm betting large and will simply bet the ML to be safe. Not great capping strategy but I'm in Vegas going off on this weekend. ;) Read this interesting article...

https://computerprediction.com/hank-stram-superbowl-system-2011

Can someone crunch these numbers for me? I'm buried the next few days but would like to see the result. Thanks Vegasrebel for digging this up. Looks like the Steelers win here big at first glance:

1. Give 10 points if a team has won a Super Bowl in the last three years.
2. Give 8.0 points to any team whose opponent is playing in their very first Super Bowl in franchise history.
3. Give 8.0 points to the team that has allowed the fewer defensive rushes.
4. Give 7.0 points to the team with the best straight up win/loss record including playoffs.
5. Give 7.0 points to the team with the most offensive rushes.
6. Give 5.0 points to the team with the lower defensive rush average per carry.
7. Give 4.0 points to the team that has the best net kick-punt touchdown returns.
8. Give 4.0 points to the team the team with the better record against the point spread.
9. Give 4.0 points to the team that has the superior net penalty yards.
10. Give 3.5 points to the team that has the best yards per pass attempt.
11. Give 3.5 points to the team that has given up the fewest points.
12. Give 3.5 points to the team that has allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns.
13. Give 3.0 points to the team that has the most sacks.
14. Give 2.5 points to the team with the fewest offensive pass attempts.
15. Give 2.0 points to the team that had the best net punts (total) on the year.
16. Give 1.5 points to the team with the best average per offensive rush.
17. Give 1.0 points to the team with the best completion percentage.

Vegasrebel, thanks bro, that's exactly what I was looking for. Nothing will take me off the Steelers getting points in this game but I wanted to get a hold of that one. I'll be the covers party at the Palazzo in Vegas on Friday Feb 4th. GL everyone.