WolfOfBayStreet

2019 Wolf's Tennis Record: 3-1 (+$885.00)

WTA Toronto

Misaki Doi +1.5 Games 1.90 ($500 to win $450)

Taking a short here because Doi has won 10 straight matches in Canada (she won an ITF event in Vancouver last August as a qualifier). Also consider that Doi is 4-0 in her last four matches as an underdog of 2.00 to 2.99 and she is 7-1 in her last eight matches overall. I will take the spread.

Camila Giorgi +2.5 Games 2.00 ($500 to win $500)

Another shot in the dark at what I believe is going to be "Upset Tuesday" in Toronto. It could also be a complete wash. Consider that Giorgi hits pretty hard and Azarenka is not a huge fan of hard hitters. The Italian is also 2-0 lifetime versus Aza including a win via retirement (up 5-3) in Tokyo on hard courts last September. Azarenka has an incredible streak of winning 11 of her last 12 first round matches but Giorgi can give her a run. Spread here.

Madison Keys 1.90 ($1000 to win $900)

This is one of my big plays in Toronto (weather pending). Madison Keys has struggled big time on hard courts losing four straight but she is 5-0 in her last five matches where she is priced 1.50 to 1.99 and she has won 5 of her last 6 played in Canada. Vekic is 1-4 in her last five matches when priced in the same range and she is 0-2 versus Keys lifetime losing in straight sets both times albeit on clay courts. Keys is always good in Canada. I have her winning this.

ATP Montreal

Gilles Simon 1.57 ($400 to win $228)

Simon is not typically my cup of tea because he is unstable to say the least on North American hard courts but he comes into this match on a 5-0 win streak in first round matches and has won 5 straight matches when priced 1.50 to 1.99. He is 2-0 versus Albot lifetime, including a win at the 2014 US Open in straight sets. It won't be pretty but Gilles finds a way here.

Nick Kyrgios +0.5 Games 1.90 ($500 to win $450)

Does Nick have enough left in the tank to entertain the masses in Montreal after winning ATP Washington last week? Given the size of this event I would say so. This match is part of the "Night Show" and the crowds should be rather large. Kyrgios is 4-1 in his last five matches priced as an underdog of 2.00 to 2.90. Edmund struggles versus players with a power serve (Nick's big strength) and has lost four of his last five matches played in Canada. Kyrgios is 2-0 lifetime (both on grass) versus Edmund and he will put on a show. I'll take the spread.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

Not a bad day at all!

3-1 (+$885) with some money to play with tomorrow. Onto Tuesday!

2019 Wolf's Tennis Record: 0-0 (+$0.00)

WTA Toronto

Joanna Konta 1.57 ($500 to win $285)

Konta is 13-0 in her last 13 first round matches, she is 5-1 in her last six matches as a fave of $1.50 to $1.99) and she destroyed Yastremska on grass at WTA Eastbourne in June. Yastremska is 1-4 in her last five matches played in North America.

Julia Goerges 1.66 ($750 to win $495)

The German leads the Head to Head 5-2 which includes two meetings on hard courts where she won in straight sets both times. I know Hercog has a nice history in WTA Canada events but she's always had trouble with JG so the price is right here.

TMS Montreal

Cameron Norrie 1.72 ($500 to win $360)

Fucsovics is 0-5 in his last five matches played on North American soil and is 1-4 in his last five versus left handed hitters. Norrie has won four straight 1st Round matches and is 1-0 lifetime versus Fucsovics. Worth a shot at this price.

Denis Shapovalov 1.53 ($1000 to win $530)

This is where it all started for the Canadian and although he's been horrendous the last few months, he should find a way to win this with the crowd and against a guy who is 0-5 in his last five hard court matches. Shapo has a good history in Canada and that should continue here. Don't like the price but will take it.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

My conference tourney picks for tonight:

Sacred Heart -4

Wagner +5.5

St. Francis (PA) -8.5

Oakland -8

Northern Kentucky -13

St. Francis (NY) +3

Morehead State -5

Tennessee-Martin pk

2018-2019 NHL Record: 0-0 ATS (+$0.00 Units)

Saturday, March 2

Columbus Blue Jackets -1.5 ($1000 to win $1120)

The Edmonton Oilers win one game and everyone is back on the bandwagon? This not a good hockey team and the Blue Jackets, with all their knew acquisitions, are just waiting to explode. This could be the game. Edmoton is only 3-13 in their last 16 games versus teams with a winning record and they showed their value in Toronto earlier this week. I think this is a big game for Columbus and they should win by 2+ goals.

New Jersey Devils +1.5 ($1000 to win $970)

I like this one a lot with MacKenzie Blackwood in net for the Devils and the Bruins coming into this game off such a big win over the Tampa Bay Lightning earlier this week. The only downside is how bad the Devils have been in Boston over recent years (and how well the Bruins are playing overall right now) but I think the Devils can surprise and keep this one close in a low-scoring game. The Devils come in 4-0 in their last four games versus Atlantic Division opponents. This should be a good one. Bruins probably win in OT but Devils keep this close.

Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 ($1000 to win $1040)

The Leafs are coming off a gutting loss for John Tavares in his return to the Island on Thursday so this is a massive bounce back game if there ever was one. So much so that the Mayor of Toronto posted some comments this week on Twitter telling JT that the city is waiting for him to come back home today and that they will make it up to him. It was only a week ago that the Sabres played in Toronto and lost 5-3. They couldn't handle Toronto's pressure and after such a poor showing in Long Island a few days ago, expect the Leafs to win big.

CBB Record: 0-0 ATS (+0.00 Units)

Saturday, March 2

Florida State Seminoles -7.5 (10 Units)

The obvious bet in this one is NC State but right off the bat we know that FSU are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games played on a Saturday. Looking back at the last time the Wolfpack were in Talahassee (2017), it wasn't pretty and the visitors were sent home with a 95-71 loss. Defense is going to win this one for the Noles as their last five opponents are shooting only 37% from the field which should slow down NC State. The Wolfpack's last four road games saw them lose by 16 at Duke, win by only 3 at Pittsburgh, lose by 17 at North Carolina and lose by 7 at Louisville going 2-2 ATS in those games. Both teams are playing well coming in but the advantage for me is with the Noles and their defense at home.

Kentucky Wildcats +3 (10 Units)

Oh wow! So if you take into consideration the amount of games Tennessee have recently won that they probably should have lost, you have to believe the oddsmakers are overreacgting a bit here. This is obviously a revenge game for the Vols after their embarrassing road loss at Kentucky a few weeks ago where they were blown out by 17 points but the Wildcats have won 6 straight away games and have wins at Louisville, Georgia, Auburn, Florida and Mississippi State during that time span just to name a few. Kentucky are 6-0 ATS in their last six Saturday games and they are an impressive 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall. It's hard to go against this team right now. Tennessee on the other hand are 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus SEC Conference opponents and only 1-4 ATS in their last five games coming off a straight up win. Place should be rocking but I am going with Kentucky to win and cover.

Texas A&M Aggies -5.5 (10 Units)

I am jumping on the Aggies train in this one and got some pretty good odds while we are at it. Before I say anything else if you are considering Vanderbilt in this one you might want to know they have covered the spread in only 19 of their last 59 games overall. Awful. Vanderbilt has not won a game now since December 31, 2018 and are winless in the 2019 calendar year having dropped 16 straight games coming into this one. The Aggies are by no means a contender in the Conference but they come in having won 4 of their last 6 games overall and have looked pretty good in their last two home games with wins over Alabama and Georgia (2-0 ATS). Coming off a loss this year Texas A&M is 5-1 ATS and the Favorite in this series has covered 6 of the last 7 meetings. I am going with the Aggies.

California Golden Bears pk (10 Units)

The Golden Bears are a great fade at home (2-9 ATS in their last 11) and Washington State is a great fade on the road (2-6 ATS in their last 8). Something has to give. The home side has won 4 of the last 6 meetings but this is more about the fact that if Cal is going to win any games this year they are going to be at home. They are 0-10 SU away from home but have won 6 games in this building. Washington State are such a tough team to read because they recently went to Arizona and Arizona State and won as big underdogs but then they went to Stanford a few days ago and lost by 48. Cal ended their 16 game losing streak earlier this week with a huge home win over Washington as an 11.5 point underdog and they should keep the momentum going and earn their second win of 2019. Both teams are bad but the Golden Bears are on a high.

Continuation...

Vancouver Whitecaps -0.5 ($1000 to win $1100)

Home Opener for the Whitecaps and they are getting no respect from the oddsmakers. This line has been dropping all week in the first MLS Regular Season home match without Bayern-departed Davies. Vancouver only played two pre-season friendlies and failed to win either one but the crowd in this building will be booming. Minnesota impressed quite a few pundits going 1W, 2D and 0L in their three match pre-season but overall they are a terrible away side. In their last 17 AWAY matches in the 2018 season, Minnesota went 1W, 2D, 14L. This says it all. After a very quite pre-season we all know Vancouver is going to come out guns blazing in the home opener. They were very good at home in 2018 (aside from the last few weeks of the regular season) and I see them winning by a few goals in this one.

Chicago Fire +0.5 ($1000 to win $1040)

Another one of those were I am going against the grain and betting against a very good LA Galaxy side in their home opener. Why not? It's early on in the season and this is the time to do it. The Galaxy played one official pre-season friendly and it was a 3-1 loss to Colorado Rapids about 10 days ago. The Chicago Fire on the other hand have played four pre-season matches and despite them not being against top notch opposition, they still managed to go 2W, 2D and 0 L in those matches with wins over Charleston and Fuenlabrada and draws versus Cincinnati and Columbus. Three of the last five matches between these two clubs have been draws and the Fire got a result the last time they played here in 2017 in a chaotic 2-2 draw. I think the lack of friendlies for the Galaxy is going to cost them with pace in the early season and Chicago should keep up.

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Major League Soccer

Toronto FC +0.5 ($1000 to win $1120)

It doesn't get any worse or embarrassing than Toronto FC's performance in the Quarter-Finals of the CONCACAF Champions League. They were the only MLS side to go out at this stage and the fan base is losing their minds after the exits of Giovinco and Victor Vazquez in the off-season. Philadelphia looked decent in their three friendlies (pre-season) but for me this is about track record in this stadium. You have to go back all the way to 2014 for the last time the Union beat TFC in this park with the Canadian side going 3W, 1D, 0L in their last four trips here. TFC won 2-0 here in 2018 on a brace from Canadian Jonathan Osorio who will be in the lineup today. I am going with TFC and these great odds. They are bound to bounce back and start the league well.

Columbus Crew -0.5 ($1000 to win $1100)

Ooooh yes. The Crew in their Home Opener against New York Red Bulls is so enticing man. The Red Bulls are coming off a massive win over Atletico Pantoja in the CONCACAF Champions League earlier this week winning both legs of the tie. However look at their one and only "Friendly" match which was lodged in between the two Champions League matches. It was a 2-0 defeat to FC Dallas. In what should be some cold conditions you have to like the home side who in their last 6 home matches versus the Red Bulls have gone 4W, 2D, 0L and the Red Bulls last winning here in 2015. The Crew have straight up win 4 of the last 6 meetings in Columbus and they went undefeated in their four pre-season matches. The place should be rocking for the opener and I am going with the home side.

New England Revolution +0.5 ($1000 to win $1100)

This won't be a popular wager because FC Dallas won all four of their pre-season matches going 4-0-0 in those matches but this is the regular season and the Revs should be in for a result here. Looking at the past visits to Dallas it's a bit discouraging because New England have dropped 6 straight matches and have not earned points here since 2010 but this is a new season and new opportunities. The Revs were awful away from home at the end of 2018 and there was a ton of talk in the off-season about fixing that early on. The pre-season was not all that impressive for New England but they did beat two European sides (Dynamo Kiev and KR Reykjavik). I expect this to be a back and forth match and for the Revs to steal a point.

Real Salt Lake +0.5 ($1000 to win $1050)

Too much emphasis has been placed on the pre-season and some of the results we all saw. Real Salt Lake had a so-so pre-season but I would put a lot more emphasis on their win here in Houston back in August when they scored two injury time goals to stun the Dynamo 2-1. Houston are coming off a very tough CONCACAF Champions League tie with Guastatoya (where they advanced) and judging by the lineup they used in their friendly versus Sporting Kansas City earlier in February in a 4-1 loss, we could see a bit of a fatigued side in this one. Real Salt Lake are banged up but they are capable and I think the fact that they have won 3 of their last 5 matches played in Houston means they can score some points in this one.

to be continued...

Tough loss on Tottenaham but big slate today and big opportunities to make it up

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English Premier League

Huddersfield +0.5 ($1000 to win $1120)

In their last five competitive home matches Brighton have only one win and that was in FA Cup action versus Derby. Brighton lost to Burnley 3-1 and failed to score home goals versus Watford (Draw), West Brom (Draw) and Liverpool (Loss). Huddersfield are an outright relegation mess both home and away but they are coming off a 1-0 win over Wolves at home midweek and they got a result at Cardiff on January 12. These are vital points for both clubs. Mounie had the loan goal for Huddersfield in their win over Wolves and he scored the loan goal here in 2018 in a 1-1 draw. I think Huddersfield keep momentum and win some points here. Risky wager on the worst EPL team but Brighton are nothing to write home about.

Soccer Record: 0-0 (+$0.00)

English Premier League

Tottenham Hotspur -0.5 ($1001 to win $1000)

This is such a good bounce back spot for Spurs and their home record versus an in-form Arsenal speaks for itself.

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Buffalo Bills +10.5 (10 Units)

The Chicago Bears won't be bothered by the cold elements (it's not even that bad in Buffalo right now) but they will be bothered by the Bills Mafia (crowd) who continue to show up, smash themselves through tables and make incredible noise during all home games as if their team was 8-1 on the season. In three away games this season the Bears have lost in heartbreaking fashion at Green Bay, barely beat the very lowly Arizona Cardinals and then lost in Miami in a game they should have won. Now you want to make them 10+ point favorites in a town that cares about every game this much? Hell no. The Bears rely pretty heavily on the ability to run the ball (4.8 yards per carry away from home this season) but Buffalo has allowed only 95 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry at New Era Field in 2018. Sure you can throw on them and the Bears should get some yardage but without a running game there will be a lot of 3rd and long situations which plays into the hands of this crowd today. In their last three games the Bills have allowed opposing QB's an average QB Rating of only 92.0 and they have forced 3 turnovers to go with 6 sacks. The Bills allow only 22.7 points per home game this season so as long as they can put some points up on the board they should be fine here.

The real question coming into this game is can the Buffalo Bills score some points with QB Nate Peterman at the helms? Having watched every Bills game this season I know Peterman has been the running joke of so many NFL and Bills fans and I myself thought he should have been left in Houston after throwing a game costing (and losing) Pick 6 very late but let's take another look. Peterman right now has nothing to lose. QB Derek Anderson was awful to say the least and Peterman knows this offense better. In the last three games the Buffalo QB's have a QB Rating of 54.2 but in their last three games that QB Rating is 101.7 which can't bode well for a Chicago defense who are possibly without Khalik Mack again and who have allowed the three road QB's they have faced to average a QB Rating of 144.6. Yes you read that right. Those QB's have averaged 283 passing yards per game and averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt. I'm not saying Peterman will have a huge game but he will make some plays and move the chains. RB LeSean McCoy has been due for a big game for quite some time and the Bears have allowed 4.2 yards per carry away from home. There is nothing like a quarterback playing with nothing on the line. Peterman has been tremendous in practice for two years now and a simplified game plan should allow the Bills a chance to win this game.

How quickly the masses forget that the Bears have been BAD on the road this season (losses to Packers and Dolphins and barely won in Arizona). As a matter of fact Chicago comes into this game having covered the spread in only 6 of their last 19 games away from home and they are 0-4 ATS on the road in their last four road games versus a team with a losing record at home on the season (Bills are 1-2). This stat goes back a long way but the Buffalo Bills played very well against New England (at home) on Monday Night Football and in their last five times playing on a Sunday following MNF they are 4-1 ATS. The Home Team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. I am going with the blue collar Bills Mafia fans and Nate Peterman to be one of the surprises of the week as he has a decent game and the Bills win.

Trend of the Week: Chicago has covered the spread in only 6 of their last 19 road games.

Buffalo 17, Chicago 13

more to come...

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Atlanta-Washington 'UNDER' 47 (10 Units)

The majority of games have gone 'OVER' for the Atlanta Falcons this season but take a look at their points outputs on the road in 2018. The Falcons scored only 12 points on opening night of the season in an 18-12 loss at defending Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles. They followed that up with only 17 points in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago and that's about it for their road games so far this year. Not even sure how it's possible they've played only twice away from home and we are in Week 9 but so be it. This team can't score on the road averaging only 14.5 points per game in their two road games on only 311.5 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play. Washington's defense is one of the most underrated in the NFL and they have allowed only 18.0 points per game at home on 5.5 yards per play. The problem for Atlanta has been QB protection as Matt Ryan has been sacked 10 times in two road games and they average only 3.7 yards per carry in those games. Washington has 10 sacks in two home games and have taken the ball away 9 times in those games. Should be a rough go for the Falcons offense.

The Washington Redskins pretty much have nobody to play any offensive position in this game as the injuries continue to mount and RB Chris Thompson could very well miss this game. Even if he does, the Redskins offense has not scored more than 23 points in almost over a month now. The last time they did it was at home in Week 3 against the Packers when they scored 31. Looking a back at their entire schedule, that was the one and only time this season they have scored more than 24 in a game. The reason this total is high is because Atlanta's defense has allowed 90 points in their last three games total but Washington's offense is not only depleted but they have been largely ineffective to say the least. QB Alex Smith has a QB Rating of only 88.5 his last three games and in those games has completed only 59.1% of his passes for 169.7 passing yards per game. Although the Falcons D has been gashed for big plays, they do have 3 interceptions and 6 sacks in those games. Let's continue to talk about the useless Washington offense who in their last three games have converted only 37.2% of the time on 3rd down and who have scored touchdowns only 28.6% of the time in the Red Zone. Points will be hard to come by again even against a bad defense.

Atlanta somehow beat the New York Giants last week but the natural letdown is due this week and the UNDER is 6-1 in the Falcons last seven games coming off a straight up win. The UNDER is also 10-2 in Atlanta's last 12 games after they allowed 350+ total yards in their previous game (they allowed 433 to the Giants) and the UNDER is 5-1 in Atlanta's last six road games dating back to last season. The UNDER is 9-2 in Washington's last 11 games overall dating back to 2017 and 6-1 in their last seven home games also dating back to the 2017 season. The UNDER has cashed 19 of the last 26 Washington home games when playing against a team with a losing record on the road. Both teams will struggle in this one.

Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 9-2 in Washington's last 11 games overall.

Atlanta 19, Washington 17

more to come...

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Tampa Bay-Carolina 'OVER' 55 (10 Units)

The FitzMagic era is back (already) and although we lose out big time on the QB Jameis Winston turnovers which were pure cash money converters for OVER backers, Fitz ability to move the ball should play just as big a factor in this game. Look at Tampa Bay's results on the road so far this season and look at the total points scored. 88 points in the Week 1 opener at New Orleans, 58 points in a blowout loss in Chicago, 63 points the following week in a road loss in Atlanta and 71 points in yet another road loss last week this time in Cincinnati. Carolina is allowing a whopping 6.6 yards per play in their last three at home this season and they have allowed opposing QB's to have a QB Rating of 142.6 in those games. Yikes! The Bucs are converting 47.4% of the time on 3rd downs in their last three road games and should have no problems scoring in this game. Carolina has allowed their last three home opponents to score touchdowns 83.3% of the time in the Red Zone and they are allowing 7.4 yards per pass attempt. Not much else to say. Have to figure Tampa Bay can score 30 in this game.

The Carolina Panthers know they can barely stop teams at home but they also know they have an offense that can put up huge numbers at home. In their last three home games the Panthers are averaging 33.3 points per game and average 371.0 total yards per game on 5.7 yards per play. I would love to see someone convince me that Tampa Bay can stop the Panthers in this one. Take a look at their last three road games please (let's leave the New Orleans 88 point fiasco out of this for now). In those games Tampa Bay has allowed 39.7 points per game and they have allowed 434 total yards of offense on a crazy 7.2 yards per play in those games. The Panthers love to run the ball and average 4.8 yards per carry in their last three home games and QB Cam Newton is completing 65.2% of his passes for 6.9 yards per pass attempt and a QB Rating of 140.6 in those games. Tampa Bay's secondary has allowed 70.3% of passes to be completed for 9.5 yards per pass attempt and a QB Rating of 185.7 in their last three road games. Mic drop.

Just to throw a bit more fuel on the fire, all four of the Buccaneers road games this season have gone OVER and the OVER is 7-1 in their last eight games overall. There are rarely any points letdowns for the Panthers as they are 7-2 on the OVER in their last nine games following a game where they score 30+ points (scored 36 in Baltimore). Historically this series for whatever reason has been very low scoring but you can't ignore these two bad defenses this week. The streak of UNDER wagers in this series will come to an end and these two teams are going to shoot things out. The number is high but both teams will score at least 30, I just don't see any other outcome.

Trend of the Game: The OVER is 7-1 in Tampa Bay's last eight games overall.

Tampa Bay 41, Carolina 40

more to come...

Record: 3-5-1 ATS (-$7000.50)

Have not posted here in weeks (since Week 2). Forgettable day in college yesterday. Units usually posted at 10 a pop which is $100 per unit. Bigger plays will be for more units. Good luck to everyone!

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Sunday, November 4

Cleveland Browns +7.5 (10 Units)

The Kansas Chiefs have to look sketchy at some point this season don't they? This could be the game. First and foremost we are mid-season right now and when the public likes a play at a clip of 70% or more you have to raise alarm bells. Well some 77% of the betting public likes the Chiefs in this game and I'm going against it. No need to discuss the Chiefs offense. We all know what they are about. Let's talk about the Browns defense. Cleveland retained DC Gregg Williams in all the chaos of this past week and his defense has allowed home opponents to complete 51.4% of their passes for 6.0 yards per pass attempt. The secondary has 7 interceptions in four home games and are allowing opponents to convert only 27.5% of the time on third downs and allowing visiting teams to score touchdowns only 50.0% of the time in the Red Zone in their last three at home. Kansas City averages 9.0 penalties per road games for 75.7 penalty yards per game in their last three away from home. Not good.

So can the Cleveland Browns score and keep up in this one? We've already established that their defense is going to make some stops and going to make some plays. THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS HAVE ALLOWED 34.3 POINTS PER GAME IN THEIR LAST THREE AWAY GAMES! That's insane as a 7.5 point favorite on the road. In those games the Chiefs have been gashed for 5.0 yards per carry on the ground and their secondary has allowed 65.6% of the passes they have faced to be completed for 7.8 yards per pass attempt. The last three road QB's they have faced have had a QB Rating of 139.7 on average. QB Baker Mayfield will have a chance to make some huge plays in this game. The Red Zone has been a problem for the Browns (see the Steelers game last week) but Kansas City allows their last three road opponents to score touchdowns 76.9% of the time in the Red Zone their last three games. This game comes down to the end.

These two teams don't see each other that often and times have really changed on both sides since their last meeting in 2015 but it's hard to look past the fact that the Cleveland Browns are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams and the UNDERDOG is 5-1 ATS in those last five meetings (the Browns every time). It's hard to go against the Chiefs I get but they've had November issues in the past going 1-4 ATS in their last five November games. The Browns are usually a team to avoid ATS wise but they are a very interesting 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a game where they allowed more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game (Steelers had 168). The Browns have nothing to lose here, everyone expects them to get crushed. Kansas City's defense has been horrendous on the road so I'm going Browns with the UPSET OF THE YEAR!

Trend of the Game: Cleveland is 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing 150+ rushing yards in their previous game.

Cleveland 35, Kansas City 31

more to come...

good luck!

Browns

Will post an updated record before Sunday Night Football but here is my largest play of the week...

New England Patriots -2 (50 Units)

The New England Patriots are coming off a dismantling of the lowly Houston Texans last week where they outyarded DeShaun Watson and his guys by 60+ yards in the game. Was anyone out there impressed at all by the Jacksonville D in New York or what? They allowed 324 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play in the game despite winning 20-15. In their win over the Texans QB Tom Brady had a QB Rating of 101.1 and was pretty effective moving the ball despite the Pats turning it over some 3 times. Brady completed 66.7% of his passes for 6.8 yards per pass attempt and they converted only 28.6% of the time on 3rd down but the Jaguars D wasn't lights out on 3rd downs in New York. The Patriots also scored touchdowns on 75% of their trips to the Red Zone in Week 1 and as a team took only 6 penalties.

Speaking of penalties, Jackonsville took 11 penalties in New York in Week 1 of the season and it cost them a whopping 119 total penalty yards. That's a disaster. The Patriots have a very underrated defense. It seems to absence of RB Leonard Fournette did not impact this line whatsoever but I would say it should have because the one thing the Patriots struggle with is run defense (allowed 4.9 yards per carry last week). The Patriots managed to sack DeShaun Watson 3 times last week, they picked him off once and they recovered a fumble. The same Pats defense also allowed only 50.0% of their passes against to be completed and allowed only 4.6 yards per pass attempt. Jackonsville is averaging only 5.1 yards per pass attempt. Even more underrated about the Patriots defense is the fact that they let Houston convert only 18.2% of the time on 3rd down last week. Even with Matt Patricia gone this defense is the real deal.

The Patriots have covered the spread 4 years in a row when playing in Week 2 while Jacksonville for some reason are an abysmal 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games played in Week 2 of the NFL Regular season. NEW ENGLAND IS 14-3 ATS IN THEIR LAST 17 ROAD GAMES IN THE NFL and they get to go up against Jacksonville team that they not only beat in the playoffs last season but that again struggles in Week 2 of the season. Backing the Patriots is never a bad idea and I am going huge on this one. LETS GO!!!!!!!

New England 30, Jacksonville 13

Good start! Will be posting a play on the late game at halftime.

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Monday, September 10

Detroit Lions -7 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE NIGHT***

The history of new starting QB's in the NFL is not very good but it's also not always bad.  Nonetheless this is the youngest QB in the NFL history making a start tonight and I think the gameplan is going to be very conservative for the Jets. QB Sam Darnold had 45 pass attempts in the pre-season and only 1 was for more than 20 yards. The rest were in the slot. If you think for one second this type of approach is going to work against the gun slinging Lions, you have another thing coming. The Jets do have a shot to keep this somewhat low scoring and I think Darnold will have a good completion rate but it won't be enough against this Matt Patricia defense.

The Detroit Lions and their passing attack have a tremendous mathup tonight. The Jets pass defense ranked 31st and 22nd in the NFL the last two seasons and they struggle big time against deep ball QB's. QB Matthew Stafford is going to have a ton of time to throw the ball tonight because the Jets have no pass rush to speak of and WR Golden Tate has a tremendous matchup with Buster Skrine in this one (Skrine allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers in 2017 and is one of the league leaders every season in missed tackles). I think the Lions offense is going to be unstoppable.

If you look back at the 2016 and 2017 seasons the Jets went 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine road games and now they start the youngest QB in NFL history...on the road. The Detroit Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday Night Football games and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five Week 1 games. I just don't see how the Jets can keep up. Two offenses from different planers and the Lions should roll.

Trend of the Game: Detroit is 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday Night Games.

Detroit 31, NY Jets 13

more to come...

good luck Swamp!