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2018-19 EPL, Ligue 1, Serie A, Bundesliga & La Liga Picks

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Posted: #26
Keep up the good work DJ
 
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Posted: #27
ykim---
peter---
 
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Posted: #28

Quote Originally Posted by DiamondJack:

MON La Liga15. Athletic Bilbao ML @ 1.80/-125 (BstVic) 2 UnitsLeganes in the last 15 away games are winless and have a record of 12L 3D. Bilbao have only lost 5 times in league play last season. Head to head last season Bilbao won 2-0. I love the numbers 1699-1633 in ELO Rank, 200 - 80 in Transfer market value. 5 to 4 in Internationals on the squad. I had the odds here at 1.50/-200 was really tempted to go 3 units here but held back since La Ligas opening weekend has been a tad cruel on my accounts.

 

 

Good Call !new_angel

 
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Posted: #29
eljmnz---
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by DiamondJack:

eljmnz---

Any Champions league pick for today? :D
 
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Posted: #31
Ykim-- Nothing in the CL today I would lean on PAOK +1 & PSV ML
 
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Posted: #32
FRI La Liga

16. Getafe ML @ 2.11/+111 (Pinnacle) 1 Unit

I'm jumping on this line early as I would not be surprised to see it go to even money or more by kick off time. Eibar are winless in their past 5 coming off a loss at home to Huesca. Out of the past 14 home games for Getafe they only lost to Real & Atletico Madrid. The last head to head encounted resulted in a 1-0 win for Getafe away in Eibar.
 
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Posted: #33
FRI La Liga

17. Leganes/Sociedad to DRAW @ 2.32/+222 (Marathon) 1 Unit

I was impressed last week with Leganes away to Bilbao losing in the last minute. This will be a home opener for this side who are facing Real Sociedad who in their past 15 away La Liga games have a record of 2W 9L 4D. The last 3 meetings between these sides have all been close 3-2 1-1 & 0-1. I'm expecting another 1-1 or 0-0 type of game.
 
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Posted: #34
SAT Bundesliga

18. Werder Bremen ML @ 2.01/+101 (Marathon) 1 Unit

The last 2 times these 2 teams met in Bremen the home side won 4-0 & 4-1. Bremen come into the match with a 12 straight undefeated record at home. Hannover come into the match with a 12 game winless streak on the road. Bremen have finished above Hannover in the table the last 5 seasons so getting even money here is a good play.
 
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Posted: #35
SAT EPL

19. Wolverhampton +1.5 @ 2.12/+112 (BetVic) 1 Unit

I know City are a good side but good God man way too much juiced ALA Barca style. Wolves at home since last season 19W 8D 2L City away have had 8 wins of 1 goal 4 L 3 D away & 14 wins 2+ goals. Which implies a 48% chance of a 2+ goal win so getting above even money for the AH of +1.5 is value. The last time these sides met last season Wolves took them to Extra time in Manchester in a cup tie.
 
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Posted: #36
SAT EPL

20. Bournemouth to DRAW @ 3.60/+260 (WillHill) 1 Unit
21. Huddersfield to DRAW @ 3.10/+210 (WillHill) 1 Unit
22. Southampton to DRAW @ 3.30/+230 (WillHill) 1 Unit

Last season in the EPL 26% of matches ended level. This season after the first 2 rounds we have only had 3 draws or 15% of games ending level. I expect a regression toward the mean this weekend. If one draw hits we have a profit.
 
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Posted: #37
SAT Ligue 1

23. Amiens to DRAW @ 3.25/+225 (Bet365) 1 Unit
24. Toulouse to DRAW @ 3.10/+210 (Marathon) 1 Unit


Last season in the Ligue 1 25.2% of matches ended level. This season after the first 2 rounds we have only had 3 draws or 15% of games ending level. I expect a regression toward the mean this weekend. On a side note I must express how important it is to have more than one book to place your bets ideally 5. All the nickles & dimes add up
 
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Posted: #38
SAT Bundesliga

25. Hertha Berlin OVER 2.5 @ 2.15/+115 (Marathon) 1 Unit

The Bundesliga Averaged 2.79 goals per game last season. Hertah averaged 2.62 & Nurnberg averaged 2.94. Form wise the home side have had 14 straight games go over 2.5 goals.Nurnber have had 6 of its past 8 games go over. Anything at plus money is a play.
 
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Posted: #39
SAT Bundesliga

26. Freiburg OVER 2.5 @ 2.31/+131 (Marathon) 1 Unit

Once again great plus money odds here. The home side freiburg averaged 2.59 goals per game last season & the visitors Frankfurt 2.65. Form wise 4 of the last 5 games for both sides have ended over 2.5. Hoping the trend continues.
 
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Posted: #40
SAT Serie A

27. Lazio +1 @ 2.56/+156 (5Dimes) 1 Unit

Juventus are juiced up to high heaven as expected especially with the arrival of Ronaldo. Juventus barely won versus Chievo in the last minute 3-2. Lazio won the last 2 times they played in Turin 2-1 & 3-2. The +1 Asian Hadicap is worth a punt at these odds.
 
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Posted: #41
SAT EPL

28. Fulham ML @ 2.01/+101 (Marathon) 1 Unit

I'm backing the newly promoted Fulham to pick up their first win this season over Burnley who just had to play in Greece on Thursday (& Lost) in the Europa League. Burnley aside who being tired are missing midfielders Brady & Defour to injury. Unlike the big clubs Burnley just don't have the depth to compete in mid week European competition. Aside from their opening home loss Fulham had a record of 13W and 2 Draws the last 15 home games in the Championship.
 
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Posted: #42
SUN Ligue 1

29. Lille ML @ 2.05/+105 (BetVic) 1 Unit

This is a form play for me as the visitors Guingamp have lost both their games to start the season and are currently on a 8 game winless streak away from home.They are also riddled with injuries. Lille on the other hand are undefeated to start the season with a win vs Rennes and a draw away to Monaco. All my l my usual numbers look good as well 1554 -1551 in ELO Rank. 86.5-48.9 in transfer market value and 13-6 in senior and youth internationals on the team.
 
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Posted: #43
SUN Ligue 1

30. Bordeaux OVER 2.5 @ 2.04/+104 (Marathon) 1 Unit

Last season Ligue 1 averaged 2.72 goals per game, so far this season its at 2.75. Monaco averaged 3.42 & Bordeaux 2.66 gpg. Head to head 6 of the past 7 meetings have ended over 2.5 Form wise 5/6 for Monaco end over & 4/6 for Bordeaux go over. Getting even money equals value.
 
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Posted: #44
Updated Record heading into Saturday Aug 25

Serie A 3-1-0 +280 Units
LaLiga 4-3-0 +182 Units
Ligue 1 3-2-0 +148 Units
EPL      1-0-0 +100 Units
Bundesliga 0-0-0 EVEN
 
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Posted: #45

Much thanks Jack, for your insights into all these leagues. 

I’ve won the past 5 games from tailing you, and have a strong feeling more draws are going to occur these next few weeks esp. in the EPL...

keep up the grind and BOL as always.

 
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Posted: #46
step---
 
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Posted: #47

Quote Originally Posted by DiamondJack:

SAT EPL19. Wolverhampton +1.5 @ 2.12/+112 (BetVic) 1 UnitI know City are a good side but good God man way too much juiced ALA Barca style. Wolves at home since last season 19W 8D 2L City away have had 8 wins of 1 goal 4 L 3 D away & 14 wins 2+ goals. Which implies a 48% chance of a 2+ goal win so getting above even money for the AH of +1.5 is value. The last time these sides met last season Wolves took them to Extra time in Manchester in a cup tie.

 

crack!

Quote Originally Posted by DiamondJack:

SAT EPL19. Wolverhampton +1.5 @ 2.12/+112 (BetVic) 1 UnitI know City are a good side but good God man way too much juiced ALA Barca style. Wolves at home since last season 19W 8D 2L City away have had 8 wins of 1 goal 4 L 3 D away & 14 wins 2+ goals. Which implies a 48% chance of a 2+ goal win so getting above even money for the AH of +1.5 is value. The last time these sides met last season Wolves took them to Extra time in Manchester in a cup tie.

 

CRACK cool

 
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Posted: #48
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Posted: #49

Quote Originally Posted by DiamondJack:

SAT Serie A27. Lazio +1 @ 2.56/+156 (5Dimes) 1 UnitJuventus are juiced up to high heaven as expected especially with the arrival of Ronaldo. Juventus barely won versus Chievo in the last minute 3-2. Lazio won the last 2 times they played in Turin 2-1 & 3-2. The +1 Asian Hadicap is worth a punt at these odds.

i like it

 
 
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Posted: #50
SAT Bundesliga

31. B. Monchengladbach to DRAW @ 3.72/+272 (Marathon) 1 Unit

Once again chasing some draws this time in Germany where last season in the Bundesliga 27% of matches ended level. Leverkusen and Borussia here seem the best bet on Saturday to end level and the odds are too good to pass up.
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