2024 Copa America Preview and Picks

Clear your mid June and early July calendar for more international footy action. Books are starting to offer some good looking futures markets. Here are my thoughts on the four groups.

GROUP A

ARGENTINA

The defending World Cup champions and Copa America champions should easily win this group and have a very favourable path right to the final. Head to head wise they recently beat Peru in Peru 2-0 and Chile 2-1 in Chile in world cup qualification. Argentina also beat Brazil in Brazil. I think they make it to the final but will fail to defend their Copa crown.

CANADA

Their squad on paper has way more quality then aging Chile and lackluster Peru. David, Davies, Buchanon, Kone, Eustaqio and Larin would all be starters on either team. Canada has scheduled two high end friendlies versus the Netherlands and France that should help in their preparations. Newly appointed manager Jesse Marsh formerly of Leeds, Lepzig and Salzburg will lead this side, and I think he is at least on paper the best Canadas has had in decades.

CHILE

I'm picking Chile to place third in this group. The squad is too old in my opinion. Vidal is 37, Sanchez is 35 and keeper Bravo is 41. Their recent run of form is 5 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses. Versus Peru they won 2-0 in Chile and lost 2-0 in Peru. Maripin and Osorio are coming off injuries. The books are overvaluing this squad based on pre pandemic results.

PERU

I think they finish bottom of this group as the talent is just not there anymore. Form wise they have only 2 wins in their past 9 games and that was to Nicaragua & the Dominican Republic. They also hired 71 year old manager Jorge Fossati who might have the world record for being fired. The guy has managed 23 clubs. Maybe Peru snatch a point but I will be fading this team.

1. Canada to qualify @ 3.50/+250 (1u) Bet365

Outside of Argentina my ratings pre pretty much equal on the 3 other sides in the group. The value therefore is in backing the Canadians. 

 Canada has been a money maker last 6 years or so…i think the US could learn a lot by following their devotion to a United National Squad 11.  I get dizzy trying to keep up with USA who are star players, prospects, overrated/underrated…. 

Pick a squad of 23 and let them play an entire year together …whoa team chemistry, who woulda thunk it.  

dumb yanks 

Chile will be a dangerous…. You’re the best DJ, consistently for what seems like forever.  Enjoy the Tourney, will you make a Copa Match?  I have a slight opportunity to see Brazil v Costa Rica in LA 

Euros & Americas  tremendous 

GROUP B

ECUADOR

They are my pick to top this group. In the past 11 games they have only lost only twice and that was to Italy and Argentina. This side has some sneaky good players in Moises Caicedo of Chelsea, Piero Hincapie of Leverkusen, Willian Pacho of Frankfurt and a standout teenager Kendry Paez that is set to join Chelsea next summer when he turns 18. They play Mexico last which will be the group decider that neither side would rest players as its most likely the lets avoid Argentina game to the second place finisher.

MEXICO

They will advance along side Ecuador. Arguably their best player, Santiago Gimenez of Feyenoord is coming off a muscle injury but should be good to play. Mexico's form has not been that great having won only 3 times in their past 9 games. They did recently play Ecuador twice in 2 friendlies in the USA one ended level 0-0 and the other Ecuador won 3-2. Second place beckons and an exit to Argentina.

VENEZUELA

It looks like they will battle it out with Jamaica for 3rd place. Defending and "parking the bus" is their style of play. Venezuela has only allowed 4 goals against in their past 5 games. They did draw with Ecuador 0-0 in world cup qualification recently, but that was in Venezuela where they are difficult to beat. I will be looking to back the unders when it comes to totals in their matches. 

JAMAICA

Their best player Leon Bailey of Aston Villa is skipping this tournament because of his displeasure of the Jamaican football association. Their second best player Demaral Gray formerly of Everton now in the Middle east somewhere has a shoulder injury and his status is unclear. Their captain and goalkeeper Andre Blake is out with a knee injury. All this unfortunately equals an early exit for the Reggae boyz.

2. Group B winner Ecuador @ 2.60/+160 (1u) Bet365

It is basically a coin toss as to who finishes top this group between them and Mexico so I'm taking the plus money value on Ecuador.

DJ-looking forward to it-thanks again for the picks and write-ups! 

@wolfeman3

  super busy this month, was supposed to go to Germany for a few Euro games but did not get the tickets.  I'm not paying thousands on the resale market either

@docpj72

GROUP C

URUGUAY

They are the rightful favourites to top the group. They tied the USA in Kansas City recently 0-0. Having the hosts in their last game should give both sides an advantage as I see both Uruguay and the USA advancing from this group with relative ease. Uruguay have only lost 3 times in their past 17 games. They managed to beat Argentina and Brazil 2-0 in world cup qualification this past fall. They also recently played Bolivia and won 3-0. Their last head to head versus Panama was a 5-0 win.

USA

The talent is surely there and the future looks really bright for the Americans. The question that remains is can the manager Gregg Berhalter get these young players on the same page playing some cohesive footy. Form wise the USA has been very sketchy with losses to Slovenia & Trinidad which is a cause for concern. However they have far more quality then Bolivia and Panama and should easily qualify.

PANAMA

Trying to play the spoiler in this group. Led by MLS players like Anibal Godoy and Adalberto Carrasquila. They did beat Bolivia last August in Bolivia 2-1 and they did take the USA into extra time in last years gold cup. In the Gold cup however it should be noted the USA fielded a "b" team. The last time Panama played versus the USA away was in Kansas where they lost 5-1. All signs seem to point to 3rd place in the group.

BOLIVIA

Their all time goal scoring leader Marcelo Moreno just retired from international duty. That leaves a group of mostly domestic league players that will find it difficult to compete in this group. Recent games include only a 1-0 win over Andorra and Saudi Arabia in friendlies alongside 15 losses. I would give this side the benefit of doubt in La Paz Bolivia at over 13'000 feet but not in the USA. They are the poorest side at the Copa America and will finish bottom most likely with zero points.

3. Group C, BOLIVIA to finish bottom @ 1.83/-120 (1u) Bet365

I'm looking for a prop that has zero points in the group but for the time being I'm backing this side to finish bottom.

my favorite future play..   GL DJ 

GROUP D

BRAZIL

This team has been very beatable lately as form wise they have only 5 wins 7 losses and 2 draws. Those are shocking numbers for a team with the pedigree of Brazil. Their top players Vinicius Jr & Rodrygo both of Real Madrid must be gassed as their season just finished on Saturday. Brazil also has a new manager in Dorival Jr who was only appointed in January and this is his first national team that he's managed. I will be fading Brazil on the Asian Handicap in the group stage.

COLOMBIA

Colombia has only won the Copa America once and that was when they hosted the tournament back in 2001. I think that might change in 2024. Colombia's run of form is the best of any team with a 21 game unbeaten streak. They have recently posted wins over Germany, Spain and Mexico. They won out versus fellow group members Brazil and Paraguay in world cup qualifying in the fall. Led by Liverpool's Luis Diaz, Aston Villa's CF Jhon Duran, along with Crystal Palace duo Lerma and Munoz. The talent is there to improve on their 3rd place performance the last time the Copa America was in the USA.

PARAGUAY

Form wise Paraguay are not doing great lately. Only 2 wins in their past 11 games and those were to Bolivia and Nicaragua. They lost to group members Colombia and Brazil in the fall. Outside of Newcastle's Miguel Almiron and Brighton's Julio Enciso, this side lacks the depth and quality to challenge the likes of Brazil and Colombia in this group. They play Costa Rica last in what should be a meaningless who does not finish bottom game.

COSTA RICA

Their all time generational goalkeeper and leader Keylor Navas of PSG just retired from international duty. That leaves this squad outside of Dynamo Moscow's Manfred Ugalde, made up mostly of domestic level players. They only have 2 wins in their past 7 games and those were home matches versus El Salvador & Honduras. They do have 2 world cup qualification games versus St Kitts and Granada coming up before being thrown into the fire versus Brazil in their Copa opener. 

4. Group D winner Colombia @ 3.75/+275 (1u) Bet365

They will play Brazil last in what might be a meeting between both sides that have already qualified. Their last 3 head to head meetings versus Brazil were a dead even 1-1-1. Value on Colombia to top the group.

5. Colombia wins over Argentina in the final @ 26.00/+2500 (1u)

6. Uruguay wins over Argentina in the final @ 15.00/+1400 (1u)

Argentina have an easy path to the final. Brazil is beatable on the other side, so the value is in the final exactas.

7. Darwin Nunez Top Goal Scorer @ 7.00/+600 (1u) Bet365

The Liverpool man leads the CONBEMOL world cup qualifiers scoring with 5 GF ahead of Messi (3 GF) who is the odds on favourite. Uruguay should be able to score at will in their group stage games.

8. Winner & Top Scorer --- Darwin Nunez & Colombia @ 101.00/+1000 (1u) Bet365

Darwin Nunez just had a hat trick versus Mexico and he's down to 6-1 to be top scorer. Pair him up with one of the 4 teams that can win the Copa at 100-1 odds are too good to pass up. 

CANADA V ARGENTINA

Argentina have been notorious for starting tournaments poorly. The last world cup they lost to Saudi Arabia and the one before that they tied Iceland. Also the last 2 Copa Americas they tied Chile and the Copa prior to that they lost to Colombia. Canada has recently held the Netherlands scoreless in the 1st half and France the whole game. The new turf was just put in a couple days ago and might be lumpy which could be a detriment to a possession heavy team like Argentina. I think Canada can hang with Argentina at least for the first half.

1. HT Result Canada +0.5 @ 2.16/+116 (1u) Pinnacle

LEAN

Total Goals UNDER 3 @ 1.72/-139

@mdelvalle

PERU V CHILE

There is not much to separate these sides as in world cup qualification Both teams won 2-0 at home. I think that this being the opener it favours the under as neither side wants to lose. Only 2 of Peru's last 16 games have gone over 2.5 goals. Chiles since March of 2022 have had 9 of their past 12 games end under 2.5 goals. I'm thinking this game ends up 1-1 or 0-0.

2. FT Result DRAW @ 3.10/+210 (1u) Will Hill

LEAN

Total Goals UNDER 2 @ 1.97/-103

@SPERRL

great call DJ!

Great start DJ 

Wishing you all the best during this tournament 

@docpj72

@CoFred

The draw k8ng strikes again.. 

Nice one.. 

Anything for this afternoon? 

Bol