Euro 2012....

I was going to ask you for the book or bookie you use!

GL

A little post-mortem on those 2 games today.....

What can you say about the Netherlands?  Those things happen.  But it did not go like I thought it would - especially for the offense and midfield of the Dutch.  Their defense was always going to be their liability - but I did not expect them to just run out of ideas in the midfield.

Robbens shit is tired.  Those same cutbacks to the middle and stepovers only work for so long.  He had a bad game - and more and more I find myself saying that.  Schneider played decent - but in the last third of the game they were reduced to long balls in from 40 yards out - not very dutch.  There was zero finishing - and that in and of itself could be discussed as the biggest problem - but the lack of creativity from a team of creators was really the longterm problem for me.

Maybe having too many quarterbacks on one team will be their downfall.  I was glad to see Huntelaar and especially Van Der Vart come in - but it was too late - and by then the Danes had settled in and the Dutch posed no problems.

Im going to have to think long and hard about how the Dutch will solve these problems in time for Germany.  As for the Danes - they really get a good opportunity playing goal deficient Portugal next.....

As for Germany / Portugal.....

It really was one of those games I felt like I had scripted before it started - really the first one of the tournament I felt like I had spot on.

Portugal is just like and NBA all star team - lots of playmakers - but they dont play as a team.  How can Ronaldo have zero impact in a game like that?  Nani?  Both MIA.  It was actually the backs that were the stars for Portugal - and not just in the back - Pepe and Coentrau (sp?) were dangerous going forward too. 

Remember - If you include WC 2010 - Portugal havent scored a goal in 4 of their last 5 games - and the only one they scored in was 7 against North Korea.  You have to score goals to win games - and they just dont do it.

Germany looked like a first game Germany - rusty - but nothing stuck out to me as a problem going forward.  I was very glad to see Mertesacker replaced by Hummels - who I thought played excellent.  The defense as a whole was solid until the last 12 mins or so - but held their nerve just enough.

The midfield play still seemed out of touch with the front line at times - like there was a break between the back 8 and the front 3.  Germany shouldnt have to play long hopeful balls - they should be able to build their attack in the midfield against anyone in the world - and Im not sure they did that so well today.

Anyone catch German coach Low picking his nose and eating it AGAIN!?!?!

Remember the infamous clip from 2010 of him booger eating, and rubbing his underarms and sniffing.  You would think this guy would be aware of it and not do it on the sidelines.  But there he was again - chomping on the nose nuggets.

I will try to find a video clip of it....

Results:
4-1
+3.56 units

5. Spain / Italy - Spain is the tournament favorite - but I do see some cracks in the armour of the team that has dominated intl soccer for 4 years. Some key injuries (Puyol, Villa) in key positions might play a large role in this tournament. I also buy in to the theory that these guys have been going at this for 4 years straight - long club seasons packed with high level games and summers filled with intl duy - there has to be an issue of runnign out of gas - just ask Pep Guardiola. Im not downplaying that Spain - when on - plays the most attractive midfield football available - but even in WC2010 their lack of scoring punch (with Villa) was evident. They played in 7 game - won their last 4 by 1-0 scores - and lost 1-0 in their opening game, and scored 2 in the other two games. So they won the tournament by scoring 8 goals in 7 games.

I love that Spain is made up primarily of players that know each other very well - but despite this they stil lost in their opener of WC10 to Switzerland. Italy come in with no expectations - a fresher group of younger players - and a manager that plays a slightly less defensive posture than previous Italians. But if Spain is the current kings of the 1-0 win - Italy was the original - the masters. Given this group - and that it is an opening game - I just see a very non-open midfield dominated game with a lack of scoring chances. I will be on Italy +.5 and +1 -105 for 2.5 units. Most likely final 0-0.

6. Croatia / Rep of Ireland - Croatia are somewhat hard to figure for me. They have some really good players in key spots - and some weaknesses too. They often sit back and defend and counter - and sometimes play an open style. Much of this depends on Modric - maybe more than anyone else in this tournament - he is the absolute key to this team and any chance they have. There are rumors about his fitness not being up to snuff - but who knows for sure - I do know that if he is not 100% this team is not going to do well. Olic got hurt in the last week - so Jelavik will start up front - and I do see that as a significant loss. The defense is older and slower - but solid. They could go on a run, or they could bomb out - just hard for me to predict.

Ireland might be the most anti-football defensive side in the tournament. Their goal is not to be scored on - period. Trapatoni (Italian Mgr) has all but said this - and it is probably their best chance of doing well here. The Greeks in 2004 proved it can be done - as Chelsea did in the CL this year. My issue is the lack of quality - even on defense - for the Irish. Dunne (aston Villa) and St Ledger (leicester City) anchor the defense - and both are ordinary in my opinion. In fact, most fo the squad is pretty ordinary - made up of midtable Pemier league players - there reaally isnt a single player on this squad that you would consider world class in their prime.

Im going to be on Croatia -.5 +120 for 1.5 units. I also would favor the under. Most likely result croatia 1-0.

7. France PK -120 (I started betting it back at +110 all the way to -110, but I think this is good all the way to -150) for 5 units. Big one off the bat. Most likely result France 3 England 1.

8. Ukraine / Sweden - This is the first game in the tournament that I think should be wide open with a lot of chances on goal. I will be on the over 2 -126 for 3 units. Most likely result Ukraine 3 Sweden 1.

As promised, here you go.