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Euro Qualifiers..... (futures, thoughts, plays)

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specimen24

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2016

Posts: 6175

Posted: Oct. 15, 2019 - 11:47 AM ET #51

decent evening. somewhat suprised at the French result. and all can say about Ukraine is "now, thats how you park a bus!!" amazing they held Portugal to just 1. Kosovo has to be the most improved country in all of Europe the past few years. during recent WC qualifiers these guys finished last in their Group with just 1 pt from 10 matches and scored only 3 times. nowadays they're banging in 3 vs the Lions in Wembley and close to qualifying. geez.

Kosovo/Mont over 5 yellows @+108 (W)

Kosovo/Mont over 1.5 @+130 (L)

Will there be a goal before the 31st min? Yes: @-115 (W)

Kosovo/Mont 1st half over 1 @+112 (W)

Bulgaria/England over 3 @-102 (W)

France HT/FT @+110 (L)

Portugal to win @+120, Port TT over 1.5 @+137, BTTS @evens (L, L, W)

big card this evening. first the early ones.

Asia:

Jordan/Nepal over 4.5 @+120

Bahrain/Iran BTTS @+170

U21:

Germany -1 @-136 - Germans just on a whole nother level than everyone else within the youth ranks.

Azer/Switz over 3.5 @+120

Slovakia/France over 2.5 @-130

Euros: Final Day of Round 8, with Austria & Hungary in perfect position to hit those big futures thinking of unloading this evening but perhaps best to wait till next month.

Finland/Armenia - pressure on Finland, not sure how they respond to this; countries whom arent familiar/used to such positions tend to tighten up. a buddy actually has stats on this and it honestly isnt pretty. anything but a 'w' will open the door for Bosnians later this evening to move ahead; but really suprised with this line. Armenia are no pushovers and have been slowly developing into a decent side - their top players starting to get contracts with Power 5 leagues. and thats where their problems will start. believe me, I WANT Fins to scr*w up so can have a chance to go 3-for-3 in futures (Bosnia) - but Armenia are w/out their 3 best players. two midfielders and a defender; not only do they miss their top 2 scorers but its their captain as well (Mkhit). coming off short rest from a match where they dominated Liecht on the road but could only get a point which really hurt their chances of qualifying. on top of that, theres the long flight to Turku in a match which not only is an early start, but that peachy Scandinavian weather kicks in too as temps hovering above freezing with rain expected. Armenians most likely will be in major bus-park mode in hopes of keeping it at two point difference in the table and get everyone healthy next month but im not entirely sure theyre going to be able to hold them out. Finland -1 @+114

back in a bit with rest of card.

GL to all

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CodyBanks

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Joined: Jun, 2016

Posts: 1660

Posted: Oct. 15, 2019 - 11:56 AM ET #52

GL today Spec....been super busy as of late. Funny how somehow we are both on the Jordan/Nepal match out of all the matches today an_roll_laugh

Hope all is well, good luck my friend

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yorosan

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Joined: Jan, 2016

Posts: 7985

Posted: Oct. 15, 2019 - 12:36 PM ET #53

Good to see you on Finland too

GL

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specimen24

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Joined: Dec, 2016

Posts: 6175

Posted: Oct. 15, 2019 - 1:24 PM ET #54

Cody, yoro

as always

Greece/Bosnia - nasty one. last time they met Bosnians blew a 2 goal lead after Pjanics gigantic brainfart of a challenge costing him a red. Bosnians still w/out Dzeko but not entirely sure they are going to be tentative here - especially if the Fins win earlier. Greeks have been god-awful at home the past few years and dont see much changing here, theyve socred 2 goals just once in past 8 games in front of fans (and still lost that one too). but Bosnians have been = as bad on their travels, however its been vs tougher opposition. even the '2' is risky, especially if Bosnians score first because then theyre just going to 'park it' in front of GK. if Finland drops points, there should be a major boost of excitement before they take the pitch. but i still dont trust Bosnians on road, especially with their superstar not around. still priced nicely so worth a stab. Greece/Bosnia over 2 @-115

Liecht/Italy - well, we're through. odds are a joke. if we hadnt qualified I might have taken a shot on Liecht with our regulars sleepwalking. But Mancini making a bunch of changes now that we've qualified (quite a few regulars were left behind to go back with their club teams) and a lot of players w/out much playing time are in there and hungry. good/motivated enough to cover the -3.5??? perhaps. can they? who the heck knows. I still dont even know whom Mancini is putting out there to start; whomever it is is still a level higher than Liecht and not to mention hungrier to score than would our regulars.

for those stat lovers, Azzurri hasnt covered a -3.5 on the road in well over 10 years; any tournament, any match, any...where. well, actually... we did ONCE in the past 60-something roadies. want to take a a guess whom that one opponent was? yep. what the heck, might take a bit of time for everyone to get on the same page out there. made a small play for the fun of it anyways on Liecht +3.5 @+102, and since im in a generous mood this evening finding it difficult to pass up these prices. Liecht +2.5 @+200.

Switz/Ireland - Irish lads blew a golden chance being held to that scoreless draw few days ago. Switz too, conceding a late one in Denmark. I honestly give up trying to figure out Ireland; they arent the most skilled team but I love the effort, its always there, that 'irish pride' thing. Swiss need this win but breaking down that Ireland defense isnt a picnic. Ireland have a TOTAL of just 8 goals in their 6 games. so you know whats coming with them; and with them playing for the draw here I'll gladly take the '+' money on this.

Switz/Ireland under 2 @+110

(the one circled on thy calendar)

Faroe/Malta - this is actually the one I like the most this evening. bunch of buddies hammered this and actually plunking a little more on it myself. countries hate those goose-eggs in the pts column. its a valid, motivating factor which shouldnt be underestimated. this is usually reserved for S. Marino, Gibraltar, and Andorra. and with upcoming trips to Scandinavia vs two extremely motivated teams (Norway/Sweden), this is Faroes last chance for points and should expect to see a great effort on their part vs an opponent whom havent even found the back of the net in 6 straight and whom they dominated in Nations League 3-1 last year. fyi, BOTH teams last win was vs another.

Faroe Islands to win @-115, -1.5 @+220 (smaller)over 2.5 @+185, over 3.5 @+435 (smaller)

Sweden/Spain - this is where having a good memory is a 'bad' thing; i refuse to fade Spain. even those 'meaningless' games on the road (WC Qualifiers, Euros, Friendlies) where theyve already clinched advancement and could be excused for 'rolling over'; buggers never do. mathematically, they havent clinched, but they get Malta at home next month so technically Spain is through. that draw in Oslo 3 days ago was funny, as a 94th minute PK was awarded by my 'Best Friend Forever' Mr Armpits, must have hosed a lot of outrights. bottom line for me is this: getting near evens on the road with a team whom you KNOW will win the ball posession battle? might not come through this evening but in the long run, im on this every time. Spain to win @-105

GL to all

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Cody, yoro

as always

Greece/Bosnia - nasty one. last time they met Bosnians blew a 2 goal lead after Pjanics gigantic brainfart of a challenge costing him a red. Bosnians still w/out Dzeko but not entirely sure they are going to be tentative here - especially if the Fins win earlier. Greeks have been god-awful at home the past few years and dont see much changing here, theyve socred 2 goals just once in past 8 games in front of fans (and still lost that one too). but Bosnians have been = as bad on their travels, however its been vs tougher opposition. even the '2' is risky, especially if Bosnians score first because then theyre just going to 'park it' in front of GK. if Finland drops points, there should be a major boost of excitement before they take the pitch. but i still dont trust Bosnians on road, especially with their superstar not around. still priced nicely so worth a stab. Greece/Bosnia over 2 @-115

Liecht/Italy - well, we're through. odds are a joke. if we hadnt qualified I might have taken a shot on Liecht with our regulars sleepwalking. But Mancini making a bunch of changes now that we've qualified (quite a few regulars were left behind to go back with their club teams) and a lot of players w/out much playing time are in there and hungry. good/motivated enough to cover the -3.5??? perhaps. can they? who the heck knows. I still dont even know whom Mancini is putting out there to start; whomever it is is still a level higher than Liecht and not to mention hungrier to score than would our regulars.

for those stat lovers, Azzurri hasnt covered a -3.5 on the road in well over 10 years; any tournament, any match, any...where. well, actually... we did ONCE in the past 60-something roadies. want to take a a guess whom that one opponent was? yep. what the heck, might take a bit of time for everyone to get on the same page out there. made a small play for the fun of it anyways on Liecht +3.5 @+102, and since im in a generous mood this evening finding it difficult to pass up these prices. Liecht +2.5 @+200.

Switz/Ireland - Irish lads blew a golden chance being held to that scoreless draw few days ago. Switz too, conceding a late one in Denmark. I honestly give up trying to figure out Ireland; they arent the most skilled team but I love the effort, its always there, that 'irish pride' thing. Swiss need this win but breaking down that Ireland defense isnt a picnic. Ireland have a TOTAL of just 8 goals in their 6 games. so you know whats coming with them; and with them playing for the draw here I'll gladly take the '+' money on this.

Switz/Ireland under 2 @+110

(the one circled on thy calendar)

Faroe/Malta - this is actually the one I like the most this evening. bunch of buddies hammered this and actually plunking a little more on it myself. countries hate those goose-eggs in the pts column. its a valid, motivating factor which shouldnt be underestimated. this is usually reserved for S. Marino, Gibraltar, and Andorra. and with upcoming trips to Scandinavia vs two extremely motivated teams (Norway/Sweden), this is Faroes last chance for points and should expect to see a great effort on their part vs an opponent whom havent even found the back of the net in 6 straight and whom they dominated in Nations League 3-1 last year. fyi, BOTH teams last win was vs another.

Faroe Islands to win @-115, -1.5 @+220 (smaller)over 2.5 @+185, over 3.5 @+435 (smaller)

Sweden/Spain - this is where having a good memory is a 'bad' thing; i refuse to fade Spain. even those 'meaningless' games on the road (WC Qualifiers, Euros, Friendlies) where theyve already clinched advancement and could be excused for 'rolling over'; buggers never do. mathematically, they havent clinched, but they get Malta at home next month so technically Spain is through. that draw in Oslo 3 days ago was funny, as a 94th minute PK was awarded by my 'Best Friend Forever' Mr Armpits, must have hosed a lot of outrights. bottom line for me is this: getting near evens on the road with a team whom you KNOW will win the ball posession battle? might not come through this evening but in the long run, im on this every time. Spain to win @-105

GL to all

moemoney

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2005

Posts: 2884

Posted: Oct. 15, 2019 - 1:42 PM ET #55

Hey Spec,

Love reading your insights and write-ups. For Faroe/Malta is the play circle Faroe or the Over in this case?

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elpr0digy

Prospect

Joined: Jun, 2018

Posts: 105

Posted: Oct. 15, 2019 - 1:46 PM ET #56

hey spec!

Im seeing faroe islands -1 (-120) and ML -195.

my odds are way off?

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moemoney

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2005

Posts: 2884

Posted: Oct. 15, 2019 - 1:53 PM ET #57

Similar on my end too. Faroe to Win is at -185, o2 @ -115

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specimen24

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2016

Posts: 6175

Posted: Oct. 15, 2019 - 1:59 PM ET #58

moe,

the outright. this would have acctually been off thy radar had they not missed a PK last time those two met

elpr,

jesus, didnt even notice the line movement.

not sure what im going to do with bosnia now that Fins won 3-0. theyre now level with goal difference.

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Teemu24

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2018

Posts: 126

Posted: Oct. 15, 2019 - 2:02 PM ET #59

I dont believe Bosnia can win Italy.

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specimen24

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2016

Posts: 6175

Posted: Oct. 16, 2019 - 1:22 PM ET #60

Teemu

not sure if you are talking ahead till next month or that match yesterday. its a moot point now as Bosnians will have to settle for the playoff route. but in regards to Italy, had the game been of any significance next month, Id wouldve rated their chances pretty decently to beat Azzurri at home with our 2nd stringers in there.

a 'bleh' evening yesterday.

Jordan/Nepal over 4.5 @+120 (L)

Bahrain/Iran BTTS @+170 (L)

Germany -1 @-136 (W)

Azer/Switz over 3.5 @+120 (L)

Slovakia/France over 2.5 @-130 (W)

Finland -1 @+114 (W)

Greece/Bosnia over 2 @-115 (W)

Liecht +3.5 @+102, Liecht +2.5 @+200 (L, L)

Switz/Ireland under 2 @+110 (P)

Faroe Islands to win @-115, -1.5 @+220, over 2.5 @+185, over 3.5 @+435 (WLLL)

Spain to win @-105 (L)

ended up on wrong side of '0' doing fine with nice wins from the German kids and Faroe, but then we decided to show up in the final 15 minutes (swearing softly in Italian)

biggest suprise this past week:

- Ireland hed to that scoreless draw in Georgia. when you look at next months slate, this is going to haunt them.

- Group D: Switz gets 1st.

- Wales now has a very very good chance of qualifying

some huge games next month: not even going to rank them, theyre all huge.

Czech/Kosovo

Ireland/Denmark

Wales/Hungary

Romania/Sweden

will get that playoff mess sorted out next month and let this slide down the page.

1

specimen24

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2016

Posts: 6175

Posted: Nov. 14, 2019 - 11:56 AM ET #61

Euro Qualifiers Rounds 9 & 10: Final two rounds; some huge matchups. and on flip side of that, some real snoozefests with teams already qualified. but before getting into anything, VERY IMPORTANT. qualification is a bit different this time:

1) Top 2 in each Group auto-advance

2) however, the genius' at the UEFA offices got bored and decided to include the Nations League tourney with this thing. in years past it would always be the "best 3rd place finishers" in a home/home play-off. the final 4 slots will be decided by each of the Nations League Group winners:

A - Switz, Port, Netherlands, England

B - Bosnia, Ukraine, Denmark, Sweden

C - Scotland, Norway, Serbia, Finland

D - Georgia, Macedonia, Kosovo, Belarus

and heres where the real FUN begins... some of the countries will auto qualify as they came in 1st or 2nd in their Group, but also some/several of those countries won their Nations League Group as well. and UEFA has a cluster-bleep tiebreaker scenario for that. of course, life is easier simply grabbing one of the two top spots in each Group; but all isnt lost if they dont as they can fall back on the UNL option a go the play-off route in March. (first countries which come to mind is over there in Group B with Portugal&Serbia battling it out)

- biggest loser(s) are N. Ireland in Group C being stuck behind Germany/Netherlands but will be left out because 4th place Belarus won their Nations League and will still get a shot a qualifying. thats pretty messed up. Bulgarians will qualify for a playoff spot via the "backdoor" because Finland nabbed one of the top two spots in Group J. and if Im reading this right, theres a chance all 4 teams from Group D will still be alive as Switz & Georgia won their Nations League Groups (if they come in 3rd, 4th in Qualifications).

I feel another major RANT coming with how this whole thing is setup. but ehhhhh...

- right away, looking ahead. those countries whom clinch advancing at home this round will be major fades on road in final round (aka England,Finland,Austria,Turkey/France). Im seriously thinking of tossing some on the 10th/Final Round +HC's with home teams now before the bottom falls off with some of those lines.

Futures: if two of these can hit it will be a really nice Qualification profit for me. Austrians seem 'safe'; Hungary almost there but a nasty trip to Wales final round. and Bosnia might need the playoff route and hope they get one of those Group D Creampuffs.

Hungary to Qualify @+125

Bosnia to Qualify @+175

Austria to Qualify @evens

0

Euro Qualifiers Rounds 9 & 10: Final two rounds; some huge matchups. and on flip side of that, some real snoozefests with teams already qualified. but before getting into anything, VERY IMPORTANT. qualification is a bit different this time:

1) Top 2 in each Group auto-advance

2) however, the genius' at the UEFA offices got bored and decided to include the Nations League tourney with this thing. in years past it would always be the "best 3rd place finishers" in a home/home play-off. the final 4 slots will be decided by each of the Nations League Group winners:

A - Switz, Port, Netherlands, England

B - Bosnia, Ukraine, Denmark, Sweden

C - Scotland, Norway, Serbia, Finland

D - Georgia, Macedonia, Kosovo, Belarus

and heres where the real FUN begins... some of the countries will auto qualify as they came in 1st or 2nd in their Group, but also some/several of those countries won their Nations League Group as well. and UEFA has a cluster-bleep tiebreaker scenario for that. of course, life is easier simply grabbing one of the two top spots in each Group; but all isnt lost if they dont as they can fall back on the UNL option a go the play-off route in March. (first countries which come to mind is over there in Group B with Portugal&Serbia battling it out)

- biggest loser(s) are N. Ireland in Group C being stuck behind Germany/Netherlands but will be left out because 4th place Belarus won their Nations League and will still get a shot a qualifying. thats pretty messed up. Bulgarians will qualify for a playoff spot via the "backdoor" because Finland nabbed one of the top two spots in Group J. and if Im reading this right, theres a chance all 4 teams from Group D will still be alive as Switz & Georgia won their Nations League Groups (if they come in 3rd, 4th in Qualifications).

I feel another major RANT coming with how this whole thing is setup. but ehhhhh...

- right away, looking ahead. those countries whom clinch advancing at home this round will be major fades on road in final round (aka England,Finland,Austria,Turkey/France). Im seriously thinking of tossing some on the 10th/Final Round +HC's with home teams now before the bottom falls off with some of those lines.

Futures: if two of these can hit it will be a really nice Qualification profit for me. Austrians seem 'safe'; Hungary almost there but a nasty trip to Wales final round. and Bosnia might need the playoff route and hope they get one of those Group D Creampuffs.

Hungary to Qualify @+125

Bosnia to Qualify @+175

Austria to Qualify @evens

specimen24

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2016

Posts: 6175

Posted: Nov. 14, 2019 - 11:59 AM ET #62

Thursday:

Turkey/Iceland - bottom line is Turkey needs just a pt to get through; smells like a draw but im taking a chance. Iceland MUST - at some time of this match - have to open it up. this could be risky if Iceland finds the net first, but theyve kept just one cleansheet on road in over 2 years (Andorra). so a little suprised to see this at '+' money and jumped all over it. fyi, though its a different time/situation, its basically the same roster, Iceland squad came down a few years ago during WC Qualifying and thumped them 3-0. Turkey/Iceland over 2.5 @+102

Albania -2 @+110 - suprised to get this at '+' money; books slow to adjust. back in October, Albania OPENED in 4-digit juice land and dropped like a brick largely due to injury-status. but most are back and should an easy 'w' for their fans. push at worst and put a little more on this one..

England/Mont - PASS. Lions MIGHT thump them. but its silly to pay that much juice on a -2.5 when all they need to do is win 1-0. should give mention to all that Sterling-drama the media up there is stirring up; but honestly - like Italy - its just "normal" stuff for England. their media is just bored and need something to write/talk about.

Czech/Kosovo BTTS @-120 - Game of the Round, and really love this play. what the h*ll is this doing near evens anyways? this is interesting on several fronts. visitors trail by a point in table and pretty much need to go for the win, and theyve scored in 6 of their past 7 roadies; and they won the reverse fixture 2-1 so Kosovo hold any tiebreaker with a 'w'. for the Czechs a draw will suit them fine and take their chances on the road in a few days in Bulgaria. friend dropped a msg in that the Czechs been practicing defensive sets all week long; to me? doesnt make sense to do this as its very risky. keep in mind that they'll have to travel to Levski on Sunday while Kosovo hosts Three Lions. (if they lose here just WATCH them scream bloody h*ll if Lions send their bench players out to Kosovo for that "meaningless" match if England wins tomorrow night). so I trust friends reports as he's very "clued-in" to that region up there. im backing off on those tasty prices with the O2.5's. but also.... keeping in mind, if things dont go well for Kosovo... they'll still have that playoff route to fall back on as they won their Nations League group. banging in 3 vs England surely gives them the confidence, so they could - and most likely will - just go for broke and toss the entire kitchen sink forward Thursday night. strong play.

France/Moldava - ditto with England. they are through no matter what, and in knowing the results with Turkey before the start of their own match makes this interesting. but with a meaningless trip to Albania coming up where their bench will most likely be used, this looks like one of those 'stat-padding' nights for their regulars whom like their resumes looking nicely. they banged in 3 before halftime in reverse fixture and in typical Mbappe-fashion, he scored the 4th in the 88th minute. god forbid if France ever simply tries to "kill" a game and just sits on a lead. so taking the 1st half over 2.5 @+174, and the 2nd half over 2.5 @+102

Portugal/Lithuania - another lopsided match. like with what mentioned above regarding England media, Christian was pulled early this past weekend and Italian media - as always - just took that story and ran with it. injured? getting old/losing a step? chr*st, he's human for godsakes. and our schedule the past 2 weeks was the worst ive seen in 7 years. 6 games? 18 days, 2 major derbies with a trip to moscow sandwiched in-between. Sarri even admitted to planning to give him rest out of respect for his Intl duties. in some ways, kind of jealous of all that notoriety England media gets, if theyre #1, then we're 1a. in any case, Portugal thumped them 5-1 in reverse fixture less than 2 months ago, a match where Christian banged in 4. and with them needing to keep the Serbs off their a**es this is a nice price for a prop. Christian to score 2+ @-110.

Serbia/Lux - Serbia another country whom can still qualify for playoffs no matter what. Serbs obviously need to win here and most likely will. but keeping in mind they have a biggie vs Ukraine in 3 days time (especially if Portugal scr*ws up). cant see them winning by more than 2 goals here - something theyve only done to only two opponents in their past 23 games - as they just might shut it down in the 2nd half and play behind the ball. taking a shot at this, Luxembourg +2.5 @-120

GL to all

0

Thursday:

Turkey/Iceland - bottom line is Turkey needs just a pt to get through; smells like a draw but im taking a chance. Iceland MUST - at some time of this match - have to open it up. this could be risky if Iceland finds the net first, but theyve kept just one cleansheet on road in over 2 years (Andorra). so a little suprised to see this at '+' money and jumped all over it. fyi, though its a different time/situation, its basically the same roster, Iceland squad came down a few years ago during WC Qualifying and thumped them 3-0. Turkey/Iceland over 2.5 @+102

Albania -2 @+110 - suprised to get this at '+' money; books slow to adjust. back in October, Albania OPENED in 4-digit juice land and dropped like a brick largely due to injury-status. but most are back and should an easy 'w' for their fans. push at worst and put a little more on this one..

England/Mont - PASS. Lions MIGHT thump them. but its silly to pay that much juice on a -2.5 when all they need to do is win 1-0. should give mention to all that Sterling-drama the media up there is stirring up; but honestly - like Italy - its just "normal" stuff for England. their media is just bored and need something to write/talk about.

Czech/Kosovo BTTS @-120 - Game of the Round, and really love this play. what the h*ll is this doing near evens anyways? this is interesting on several fronts. visitors trail by a point in table and pretty much need to go for the win, and theyve scored in 6 of their past 7 roadies; and they won the reverse fixture 2-1 so Kosovo hold any tiebreaker with a 'w'. for the Czechs a draw will suit them fine and take their chances on the road in a few days in Bulgaria. friend dropped a msg in that the Czechs been practicing defensive sets all week long; to me? doesnt make sense to do this as its very risky. keep in mind that they'll have to travel to Levski on Sunday while Kosovo hosts Three Lions. (if they lose here just WATCH them scream bloody h*ll if Lions send their bench players out to Kosovo for that "meaningless" match if England wins tomorrow night). so I trust friends reports as he's very "clued-in" to that region up there. im backing off on those tasty prices with the O2.5's. but also.... keeping in mind, if things dont go well for Kosovo... they'll still have that playoff route to fall back on as they won their Nations League group. banging in 3 vs England surely gives them the confidence, so they could - and most likely will - just go for broke and toss the entire kitchen sink forward Thursday night. strong play.

France/Moldava - ditto with England. they are through no matter what, and in knowing the results with Turkey before the start of their own match makes this interesting. but with a meaningless trip to Albania coming up where their bench will most likely be used, this looks like one of those 'stat-padding' nights for their regulars whom like their resumes looking nicely. they banged in 3 before halftime in reverse fixture and in typical Mbappe-fashion, he scored the 4th in the 88th minute. god forbid if France ever simply tries to "kill" a game and just sits on a lead. so taking the 1st half over 2.5 @+174, and the 2nd half over 2.5 @+102

Portugal/Lithuania - another lopsided match. like with what mentioned above regarding England media, Christian was pulled early this past weekend and Italian media - as always - just took that story and ran with it. injured? getting old/losing a step? chr*st, he's human for godsakes. and our schedule the past 2 weeks was the worst ive seen in 7 years. 6 games? 18 days, 2 major derbies with a trip to moscow sandwiched in-between. Sarri even admitted to planning to give him rest out of respect for his Intl duties. in some ways, kind of jealous of all that notoriety England media gets, if theyre #1, then we're 1a. in any case, Portugal thumped them 5-1 in reverse fixture less than 2 months ago, a match where Christian banged in 4. and with them needing to keep the Serbs off their a**es this is a nice price for a prop. Christian to score 2+ @-110.

Serbia/Lux - Serbia another country whom can still qualify for playoffs no matter what. Serbs obviously need to win here and most likely will. but keeping in mind they have a biggie vs Ukraine in 3 days time (especially if Portugal scr*ws up). cant see them winning by more than 2 goals here - something theyve only done to only two opponents in their past 23 games - as they just might shut it down in the 2nd half and play behind the ball. taking a shot at this, Luxembourg +2.5 @-120

GL to all

icemantbi

Hall of Fame

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 25675

Posted: Nov. 14, 2019 - 12:01 PM ET #63

Thanks for the analysis. The Nations League thing really puts a wrench in things, did not know about that.

My major play today was Portugal to lay a beatdown on Lithuania, as they are behind Ukraine in the group and also behind them on goal differential as well. I assume they would want to win their group to get a better seeding in the final tournament?

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specimen24

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2016

Posts: 6175

Posted: Nov. 14, 2019 - 12:03 PM ET #64

the h*ll with creating new thread, just going to put this in here.

so now we have different people cutting-n-pasting someone elses SAME exact writeups from another site? cazzo!!!

and are people SERIOUSLY placing money on a juiced up 650-700 line?

a ton of upsets(underdogs) coming out of asia earlier. hit bunch of small plays on the HC line with hk, leb,viet, & syria with that cross-continental east/west angle and iraq just scr*wed up the draw with a late one there in their lovefest with iran. will do this again next round in few days where applicable.

Africa: lets try this one more time

Congo/Gabon over 2.5 @+150

Algeria -1.5 @+110

GL to all

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specimen24

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2016

Posts: 6175

Posted: Nov. 14, 2019 - 12:09 PM ET #65

ice thanks for stopping by. yes i DO think thats important to keep in back of mind. (the qualification process). and yes, the Nations League...... seriously...... i do NOT want to get started with UEFA on this. please .....

but like you said, just get the d*mn top 2 and dont have to worry about it. but for some countriess, having that in their 'back pocket' might alter their strategy or approach these last few rounds. i just feel bad for N Ireland, they arent the most skilled OK, but work really hard and put their hearts into every game. i mean, getting Germany/Nether in same group is h*ll, i think youll agree. so to get "hosed" from that third slot is kind of unfair in a way. maybe they WILL geet in still, i honestly havent read the next level of that qualification rules

i still think its stupid though.

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Johnnyg7

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2010

Posts: 1902

Posted: Nov. 14, 2019 - 2:04 PM ET #66

GL today I'm tailing a few appreciate your input and thoughts into these plays BOL

new_cool

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WCI

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 2331

Posted: Nov. 14, 2019 - 3:10 PM ET #67

Quote Originally Posted by specimen24:

@+102Portugal/Lithuania - another lopsided match. like with what mentioned above regarding England media, Christian was pulled early this past weekend and Italian media - as always - just took that story and ran with it. injured? getting old/losing a step? chr*st, he's human for godsakes. and our schedule the past 2 weeks was the worst ive seen in 7 years. 6 games? 18 days, 2 major derbies with a trip to moscow sandwiched in-between. Sarri even admitted to planning to give him rest out of respect for his Intl duties. in some ways, kind of jealous of all that notoriety England media gets, if theyre #1, then we're 1a. in any case, Portugal thumped them 5-1 in reverse fixture less than 2 months ago, a match where Christian banged in 4. and with them needing to keep the Serbs off their a**es this is a nice price for a prop. Christian to score 2+ @-110.

an_getaway Cash it in the 22nd!! peace_5

2019 CPL XVIII Champion

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WCI

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 2331

Posted: Nov. 14, 2019 - 3:10 PM ET #68

Quote Originally Posted by specimen24:

@+102Portugal/Lithuania - another lopsided match. like with what mentioned above regarding England media, Christian was pulled early this past weekend and Italian media - as always - just took that story and ran with it. injured? getting old/losing a step? chr*st, he's human for godsakes. and our schedule the past 2 weeks was the worst ive seen in 7 years. 6 games? 18 days, 2 major derbies with a trip to moscow sandwiched in-between. Sarri even admitted to planning to give him rest out of respect for his Intl duties. in some ways, kind of jealous of all that notoriety England media gets, if theyre #1, then we're 1a. in any case, Portugal thumped them 5-1 in reverse fixture less than 2 months ago, a match where Christian banged in 4. and with them needing to keep the Serbs off their a**es this is a nice price for a prop. Christian to score 2+ @-110.

an_getaway Cash it in the 22nd!! peace_5

2019 CPL XVIII Champion

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WCI

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 2331

Posted: Nov. 14, 2019 - 3:23 PM ET #69

My apologies for double post, not sure how that happened.

2019 CPL XVIII Champion

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gabalja

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 474

Posted: Nov. 14, 2019 - 3:57 PM ET #70

Albania wow

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specimen24

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2016

Posts: 6175

Posted: Nov. 14, 2019 - 4:56 PM ET #71

john

'so-so' evening, but at least got one of the bigger ones to level things out.

WCI,

no worries. in memories of the forums 'thread-bumper' you honored his name for doing that. right??

CR& put to rest those 'injured' rumors ehhh?

gab,

never mind them, yes ...suprising. but what about France sleepwalking?

Congo/Gabo over 2.5 @+150 (L)

Algeria -1.5 @+110 (W)

Turkey/Iceland over 2.5 @+102(L)

Albania -2 @+110 (L)

Czech/Kosovo BTTS @-120 (W)

France/Moldava 1st half over 2.5 @+174, 2nd half over 2.5 @+102 (L, L)

Christian to score 2+ @-110. (W)

Luxembourg +2.5 @-120 (W)

quick thoughts:

1) iceland. ill eat that loss. but their lack or 'urgency' was disturbing. when ur in a 'must-win' & WALK to corners, throw ins, and zero ball pressure until last 5 mins? fire that coach.

2) French supporters already using the fatigue excuse. BS. didnt bother Port or Eng vs similar strength opponents. and their rosters are just as filled with UCL participants.

3) Czech/Kos .... now thats 'old school' futbol. just drop the ball and play.

on to tomorrow

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specimen24

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2016

Posts: 6175

Posted: Nov. 15, 2019 - 11:53 AM ET #72

running late.

Euros:

8-match over 1.5 @+194 (doubling it up) with the xcpetion of Bosnia/Italy*; unlike yesterday, I cannot see any of these this evening not reaching 2. we'll see.

Romania/Sweden - like ystdays Czech/Kos, this is going to be another guy of a match. YOUTH vs EXPERIENCE. Romanians behind a pt in table, so obviously a draw will do them no good. but Swedes have proven - at least to me - that their WC run was no fluke. I like this Romanian squad, gave mention a while back how felt they are 3 years away from making waves in next WC as they have a core group of youngsters (Hagi, Pusccas, Stanciu) whom are extremely talented; theyll crack the Top 15 in world soon. but Sweden - Andersson is one of the most underrated coaches in europe - ......when they enter a match with the approach of NOT needing to win, they are just one h*ll of a bloddy tough nut to crack; theyve got that "horseshoe" formation down pat and are above average in counter-attacks with Berg up front. this could EASILY end up a 0-0 draw so not as strong as yesterdays; however, a goal before halftime (either way) will just turn the match upside down in the 2nd so the under is at risk. taking a shot with the BTTS @-105

added late: Romania to win @+200(small) - Swedes still have the playoff route in their pockets to fall back on as they won their UNL group. but at the same time, their final match is @home vs Faroe while Romania has that trip to Spain so even a loss here and they still might end up overtaking them in final round. just a value play; 9 times out of 10 ill almost always take experience & better defense over youth. we'll see how this unfolds.

Finland/Liecht - ANY other opponent and id probably fade the Fins. been a LONG time since theyve been in this spot and the pressure is enormous and I actually think playing at home is WORSE than being on road. friend has a stat which pretty much falls in line with this statement, the hardest thing to overcome in these situations is NOT the opponent but the 'nerves' and playing scared. Fins really need to get an early one. but Liecht are poor travellers & play like cr*p on the road. never mind Italy + Bosnia whom both banged in 5+ vs them; theyve also LOST to Faroe, Armenia, Macedonia and Gibraltar on road since last year too. dont like the juice on either of them so will just combine,

Finland + over 3.5 @-109. an early goal and let the party begin.

****note, if Fins scr*w up.... will immediately hammer the 'over' in Bosnia/Italy***

Armenia/Greece - the fact that Armenians are 1) above them in the table 2) @home and 3) are the ones whom still have the chance to qualify/advance...yet they are underdogs is pretty telling. Greeks playing for pride and will find plenty of chances vs an opponent whom will be throwing the kitchen sink at them. strong play. Armenia/Greece BTTS @-115

Friendlies:

Uruguay to win @-120 - a rare "friendly" play. dont know whom Uruguay is putting out there, dont care either; Hungary has major trip to Wales in 3 dayss which will decide their euro fate. biggest match for them in almost 4 years. was told HC not risking any chances and bench/recent call ups will be used. suprised its this low and jumped on it.

Africa: nice little "run" going here, last two 'overs' i played ended up scoreless. the h*ll with overs down there.

Morocco -1.5 @-120

back in a bit with rest of the later matches.

GL to all

0

running late.

Euros:

8-match over 1.5 @+194 (doubling it up) with the xcpetion of Bosnia/Italy*; unlike yesterday, I cannot see any of these this evening not reaching 2. we'll see.

Romania/Sweden - like ystdays Czech/Kos, this is going to be another guy of a match. YOUTH vs EXPERIENCE. Romanians behind a pt in table, so obviously a draw will do them no good. but Swedes have proven - at least to me - that their WC run was no fluke. I like this Romanian squad, gave mention a while back how felt they are 3 years away from making waves in next WC as they have a core group of youngsters (Hagi, Pusccas, Stanciu) whom are extremely talented; theyll crack the Top 15 in world soon. but Sweden - Andersson is one of the most underrated coaches in europe - ......when they enter a match with the approach of NOT needing to win, they are just one h*ll of a bloddy tough nut to crack; theyve got that "horseshoe" formation down pat and are above average in counter-attacks with Berg up front. this could EASILY end up a 0-0 draw so not as strong as yesterdays; however, a goal before halftime (either way) will just turn the match upside down in the 2nd so the under is at risk. taking a shot with the BTTS @-105

added late: Romania to win @+200(small) - Swedes still have the playoff route in their pockets to fall back on as they won their UNL group. but at the same time, their final match is @home vs Faroe while Romania has that trip to Spain so even a loss here and they still might end up overtaking them in final round. just a value play; 9 times out of 10 ill almost always take experience & better defense over youth. we'll see how this unfolds.

Finland/Liecht - ANY other opponent and id probably fade the Fins. been a LONG time since theyve been in this spot and the pressure is enormous and I actually think playing at home is WORSE than being on road. friend has a stat which pretty much falls in line with this statement, the hardest thing to overcome in these situations is NOT the opponent but the 'nerves' and playing scared. Fins really need to get an early one. but Liecht are poor travellers & play like cr*p on the road. never mind Italy + Bosnia whom both banged in 5+ vs them; theyve also LOST to Faroe, Armenia, Macedonia and Gibraltar on road since last year too. dont like the juice on either of them so will just combine,

Finland + over 3.5 @-109. an early goal and let the party begin.

****note, if Fins scr*w up.... will immediately hammer the 'over' in Bosnia/Italy***

Armenia/Greece - the fact that Armenians are 1) above them in the table 2) @home and 3) are the ones whom still have the chance to qualify/advance...yet they are underdogs is pretty telling. Greeks playing for pride and will find plenty of chances vs an opponent whom will be throwing the kitchen sink at them. strong play. Armenia/Greece BTTS @-115

Friendlies:

Uruguay to win @-120 - a rare "friendly" play. dont know whom Uruguay is putting out there, dont care either; Hungary has major trip to Wales in 3 dayss which will decide their euro fate. biggest match for them in almost 4 years. was told HC not risking any chances and bench/recent call ups will be used. suprised its this low and jumped on it.

Africa: nice little "run" going here, last two 'overs' i played ended up scoreless. the h*ll with overs down there.

Morocco -1.5 @-120

back in a bit with rest of the later matches.

GL to all

moemoney

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2005

Posts: 2884

Posted: Nov. 15, 2019 - 1:01 PM ET #73

Tailing you on the Uruguay - The ML is up to -160 for me but going to take a stab at the -.75 @ -115. Really tempted to take the ML even at that juiced price since I am a firm believer that the odd movements tell a big story but won't be greedy.

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SettleDownSpaz

MVP

Joined: Feb, 2004

Posts: 17360

Posted: Nov. 15, 2019 - 1:14 PM ET #74

Spec - good stuff, as always. Was going to ask you about the over in B&H. As much as they don't need to win, it's Italia and I can't imagine them stepping on the pitch and not going after a win. It's as if the Greeks found out I took Armenia, but your thoughts on the odds in that one was exactly where I sat and stewed for 15 minutes. I knew something was up, but then I convinced myself that maybe something was up not top of the something that was up. The mind, it's a dangerous tool in the gambling arsenal, even more so, than money

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specimen24

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2016

Posts: 6175

Posted: Nov. 15, 2019 - 1:50 PM ET #75

moe

looking decent so far

settle

ill get back to you in a bit

small play with bosnia/italy oveer 2.5 @-111 mancini sending out a fairly offensive minded lineup. bosnians playing for pride now that Fins won

also, jumped on this before it moves.

Monday:

Greece to win @+115 - Fins going to be celebrating all weekend long. meaningless as they cant catch italy.

GL to all

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Euro Qualifiers..... (futures, thoughts, plays)

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