Sweem's World Cup 2014 thread, futures + writeups

While we are getting closer, figured I would join DJ and open the thread already which will be the only thread I will use during World Cup, posting the futures and my opinion of the groups below

- Group A -
Brazil, Mexico, Croatia, Cameroon.
 While people are drooling over Brazil, expecting them to walk past this group easiliy, I beg to differ. Sure, Brazil should clinch with 7 or 9 points, as I feel they might draw against Croatia in the opener because of the pressure and nerves. Nevertheless, expect Brazil to get all the attention and money on them. A long term play for this group that I find attractive is Brazil/Croatia to advance @ 2.35 (1/10). Mexico feels like a sleeper, had a very questionable road to the World Cup and will likely take third. Cameroon is the clear bottom team in this group, I see them getting 1-2 points.

___________________

- Group B -
Spain, Chile, Netherlands, Australia.
What a lovely group, I am going to say the following: Netherlands will be the flop among the 'big nations' and end up 3rd. Chile will be the surprise and has a decent shot at winning the group competing with Spain. Australia will have a nice vacation, but they should end up with 0 points. I love the play Spain/Chile to advance @ 3.00 (2/10). Note that the second placed team will likely get Brazil in the first knockout stage, so the first place is really important. Chile is a sleeper in the tournament, if they win the group, I expect them to reach the quarterfinals.. semis? Maybe.. If they get second place in the group, they will give Brazil a dog fight but come up short. That is why I can not put a long term bet on Chile, but like I said, expect Spain and Chile to advance, great odds. Do not let the name "Netherlands" fool you - that's my opinion.
___________________

- Group C -
Colombia, Japan, Ivory Coast, Greece.
Very tricky group, although I am feeling Colombia will win the group, but the second spot is up for grabs. Ivory Coast are heavy big guys with some trickery to offer, good quality players. Japan should not be overlooked as they play quick technical soccer with a lot of movement as we could see in the Confederations Cup. Greece, the fact that they are in Brazil is enough of a surprise because it is like seeing Stoke participate in Champions League - 1 point at most for Greece in my opinion, they are good at keeping clean sheets against European teams but this is another mentality they have never faced before and I see them scoring maximum 1-2 goals in this tournament. I would play Colombia to win the group but the odds are not too attractive at 1.88 - no long term play for me, but will fade Greece along the way.
___________________

- Group D -
Uruguay, Italy, England, Costa Rica.
While I expect South American teams to have a strong campaign, the same goes for this group which is why I see Uruguay clinching the 1st spot. While the second place will be a battle between Italy and England. Although, I believe England will be another big European team that flops, and that is why I like the play Uruguay/Italy to advance @ 2.63 (1/10). England have to stop seeing themselves as favorites, their self-image is over the actual quality. Their British style of soccer is not what you can use against technically gifted/faster teams. In an South American environment, England is the pure contrast. Italy may have an average campaign as well, but they always manage to advance regardless with their massive experience. Costa Rica could end up with a point, against England I believe. However, apart from that they should not even be considered to advance. Nah, sorry England - early trip home is my prediction.
___________________

- Group E -
France, Ecuador, Switzerland, Honduras
An interesting group. The characteristics of each team is unique in itself which is why it will be interesting to put these different styles encountering each other. I still have a soft spot for Ecuador, after seeing them in the qualifiers I love the way they play, very very fast and attacking minded. Although they mightily struggle away from home - This is still a South American environment, which I think they will start to "feel at home" with. France are the clear favorites, I feel they have gotten some pieces together and will win the group. Switzerland are young and talented, have no experience of big tournaments - although having tons of talent going on, I say they need to mature more in Europe and get regular participation in the bigger tournaments before they can be justified as a solid team in the long run. I do not know much about Honduras but with the likes of France, Ecuador and Switzerland, they are not worth to mention as potential advancers from the group. Based on the above, I love the play France/Ecuador to advance @ 3.00 (1/10). Ecuador owe this to C.Benitez who passed away, it should be a boost for them.
___________________

- Group F -
Argentina, Bosnia, Nigera, Iran.
Completely expecting Argentina to walk past this group with 9 points. The second place is between Bosnia and Nigeria, and possibly Iran - I do not know much about them but I would be massively surprised if they did well in such a major tournament. Bosnia have a golden generation but have not been put to test yet, so I am still uncertain about them. Nigeria usually participate in the World Cup and African teams are hard to play against, with their physicality. The second spot is wide open which is why I pass on any play for this group. Perhaps some handicap bets on Argentina during the group games later on.

Two last groups..

- Group G -
Germany, Portugal, Ghana, USA.
Obviously we can see how this 'should' go already with Germany and Portugal being clear favorites. Ghana and USA should just try to aim for a good performance and try to get some points against the favorites in the group. Many on Covers are Americans I can imagine, so I am not gonna bash out on your team at all, in fact I like USA but I have to place bets according to reality. Ghana does not have what it takes either after their fairytale campaign in South Africa a couple of years ago. I like one long term bet in this group which is Portugal to finish 2nd @ 2.30 (1/10) as I see Germany being too solid to let go of the first place.
___________________

- Group H -
Belgium, Russia, South Korea , Algeria.
Everyone believes Belgium can go far, why wouldn't they? They have a brilliant team on paper and the only thing that can stop them are themselves. I think they will be knocked out around the QF's at most though. Talented group, but very inexperienced in major events like these. Russia can do well, very organized with ability to score as well, being coached by Capello who knows what he is doing. I see Russia advancing behind Belgium in a tight battle for the first spot. Algeria can surprise a few and get 3-4 points, with Ghilas and Slimani they have a good attack to be able to score and disturb some teams in the group. South Korea are fast and technical but should be seen like a weaker version of Japan, hence I do not see them battle for the top two spots. It is difficult to predict a long term bet here.. Belgium to win the group at 1.70 is not nice, so I will pass and rather play something during the group games.

- Tournament top scorer bet -
I am all for value when it comes to this, a couple of weeks ago I saw Fred @ 34.00 (1/10) and two weeks later he is around @ 24.00 which is still very good to me. I expect him to start the games for Brazil and while Brazil should have great chances to reach far, he will have a lot of games to score. He did brilliant in the Confederations Cup and on home soil once again, he can be the leading scorer of Brazil and possibly the whole tournament. Everything over 20.00 is worth a small shot to me with regard to his average goal ratio, playing for a top nation as well. Very interesting value bet in my eyes.
_______________________

Summarized futures
1. Brazil/Croatia to advance @ 2.35 (1/10)
2. Spain/Chile to advance @ 3.00 (2/10)
3. Uruguay/Italy to advance @ 2.63 (1/10)
4. France/Ecuador to advance @ 3.00 (1/10)
5. Portugal to finish 2nd @ 2.30 (1/10)
6. Fred to be Top Scorer of World Cup @ 34.00 (1/10)

Interesting strategy grouping teams to advance

BOL...

Great read sweem 

amazing that was the most money i ever made in soccer necause of greece...they made me over 5gs

That is funny I also got killed by betting against Greece and betting for Portugal in '04 It was my rookie year in betting & I got my trial by fire

DJ! I'm very happy to see that I was not the only one   

SweemIt's going to be a grand ole' time!

thank you sweem, really nice  write up.

Haha funny to read the Greece stories, mixed experiences with them. Yes they are very good defensively for some reason.. this is not because they have world class players on the defending positions, they just play really really boring which apparenly keeps games close. But they have only done this with success against European teams, and I literally think they will be slaughtered this World Cup, especially in an South American environment and against oppositions they have not faced before,

Portugal should not be that trusted either, but I think it is a different story in this World Cup because, it will feel like home for Portugal - massive support, as Brazilians and Portuguese people like each other and speak the same language.. Brazilians will be cheering for Portugal when their own National team is not playing, so I think Portugal will thrive in the environment and we will see the best they can perform, I can see them advancing far.

Good read and very nice writeup.

Sweem,      Interesting write ups. Love the " Fred as top scorer " bet.

@Vasili

Glad you liked it mate, thanks and best of luck and here is for a successful world cup

@Franz
Yeah I am excited to see how that top scorer bet goes. Sure he will be surrounded by stars like Neymar who can score a lot as well. Competitors like Messi, Aguero, Ronaldo who were large favorites in comparison to Fred, but I like Fred, he has proven that he is a goal scoring machine domestically in Brazil, and we saw it in the confederations cup as well.. so getting 20.00 or more is massively overpriced for Fred, so when I saw 34.00, jumped right on it.. would be the payday if he wins it

sweem, very good point about Portugal in the stuation they will enjoy in Brazil.

Great stuff. I enjoy reading what others think. Some difficult groups for this world cup. I would love to see USA pull off a draw against Portugal and beat Ghana and have a chance but i dont see it happening as Ghana seems to have USA's number. Its funny im an american but growing up all my life i supported Holland and Germany. Im really curious to see how Holland plays as i have a gut feeling not the greatest.

@Campo
- Exactly, it is a factor many might not consider - the life on and off the pitch. Actually the thriving factor will be huge in this World Cup, some European teams will face difficulties to "fit in" into the the kind of environment, so I see Portugal being more like a South American team in this World Cup which is why I see them going far.. Semi's at most.. Value aside - Some hot candidates like Neymar, Messi etc doesn't really get my attraction as much as I would.. obviously seek for a high scoring team and a team that can go far, I'd say ... Suarez with Urguguay or ..Ronaldo for Portugal if they have the kind of campaign I imagine them to have. My vote goes to either of them

@Jerzey
Thanks mate. I agree with you and I would be very happy to see USA do well because well I have gotten it rubbed in my face to support USA for a couple of years now due to my now previous girlfriend lol so I had to support USA in most sports if I didn't wanted to sleep on the couch Regardless, facing reality - I see USA clinching 3rd or 4th, battle with Ghana.. I hope they can put up good performances and get knocked out with their head held high. I am curious to see about Holland as well but as I have given my thoughts above, I see them and England being the two "big" European flop teams, sadly.

Fewest goals in the Tournament - Greece @ 17.00 (1/10)

Another play that appeared interesting to me thanks to its value is Greece to score the fewest goals in the World Cup. Why? We all know that Greece are involved in very very stingy games, often 1-0 if even that.. and this is against European teams. The group itself consists of Ivory Coast, Japan and Colombia.. three teams I see keeping a clean sheet against Greece, because all of them will have more possession than Greece and all of them are simply better soccer teams. If Greece ends up with 0 goals in the group, this bet suddenly looks great, it will come down to Greece or Australia scoring the fewest if you ask me. For 17x the money it's worth to risk it, high value. I would not put it at more than 10 myself.. so 17, I am up for it.

World Cup winners - Portugal @ 29.00 (1/10)

A unit goes to a nice underdog according to me, and why not? I will try to state some reasons that makes sense to me. Brazil are the host nation, right? But this is as close Portugal has to being the "host" nation as well..they will thrive in this environment, both on and off the field - everyone speaks Portuguese, they are very close to Brazilians, good relations with the country and people. Whenever Brazil are not playing, the locals will cheer for Portugal throughout the tournament which will make these guys thrive, it is almost as good as being in Portugal. Moreover, the team is decent enough to reach far. A group consisting of USA, Ghana and Germany, they should clinch second spot at least. And from there, the journey starts. Keep an eye on midfielder William Carvalho who can have a break through tournament, being already watched by big clubs. Ronaldo can settle a game himself, and the defense is top class. At a first look I had quarterfinals in mind, but then weighing in the factors such as "home advantage" - which is fair to say in this occasion, I think they can reach very far if they reach their potential. If Greece can win the Euros... anything can happen. Great odds as well! Did not think I would get higher than 20.00 on this bet, so it's worth a shot on the "mini version of Brazil" a.k.a Portugal


Summarized futures
1. Brazil/Croatia to advance @ 2.35 (1/10)
2. Spain/Chile to advance @ 3.00 (2/10)
3. Uruguay/Italy to advance @ 2.63 (1/10)
4. France/Ecuador to advance @ 3.00 (1/10)
5. Portugal to finish 2nd @ 2.30 (1/10)
6. Fred to be Top Scorer of World Cup @ 34.00 (1/10)

-Newly added-
7. Greece to score fewest goals in World Cup @ 17.00 (1/10)
8. World Cup winners - Portugal @ 29.00 (1/10)

That is what I meant by "home field" feeling. If Portugal could choose any other country in the world to play a World Cup tournament in except in their own country, it would be Brazil. It is not a hate kind of rivalry between people watching, Brazilians does not wish Portugal to lose against Germany, USA etc. The only time they will not cheer for them is in case they face each other - playing in Brazil is the most similar environment it gets for the players. While some teams will struggle with cultural chocks, weather conditions and other outside factors. What I am saying is that I feel the Portuguese players will be in harmony playing in this kind of environment.

Being Swedish myself, it is like Denmark would arrange a World Cup.. for sure, the Swedish squad would have a massive support - even though Swedes and Danes "dislike" each other, it is not in a serious way, mostly in a joking kind of way. Same kind of logic goes behind the fact that I feel Portugal can advance further than people take them for.

Great input, thanks for the comment and fingers crossed for my little outsider here

great work Sweem very insightful

Cheers Zamigo ^^ preparing to add three plays from the first group round soon, as we kind of know most confirmed squads by now - it's safe to place the bets. More to come shortly.. Thanks for the input Zamigo, let's have a successful one

Posting my only three bets of the first round - just because it's world cup I do not want to bet on every game, it's always smarter to be selective and just wager on the games you see interest in or think some team is under/over valued. Here are my three games of the first round

Chile - Australia: Pick: Chile -1 AH @ 1.95 (3 u)

Chile should definitely take command right away against the weakest side in the tournament. Sure, there might be a lot of nerves but we will see Chile capitalize at some point, and the very least we should get out from this bet is a "void" if Chile struggles to break through the Australian "parked bus". On a normal day, in a South American environment, Chile wins this by minimum two goals, three and four is also possible, would not raise my eyebrows at least. Massively important game for Chile to win, and also - gather a couple of goals in the battle of the first place as they would like to clinch the group victory to avoid Brazil.. which means goals versus Australia should be a main priority as well.
________________________________

Colombia - Greece: Pick: Colombia @ 1.80 (1 u)

Wow, just wow. 1.80 on Colombia against Greece on South American soil? No brainer to me - of course, nothing is ever safe but with or without Falcao in the team, Colombia needs this victory and have such a superior team in comparion to Greece who I see scoring 0 goals in the tournament. Kudos to Greece for playing the way they do..extreme defense and hope to capitalize on a corner, this won't work when they will barely touch the ball on the Colombian half. In my humble opinion, Greece should not even be in World Cup (sorry to any Greek supporter out there), but there were better teams in Europe who deserved the spot more.
________________________________

Switzerland - Ecuador: Pick: Ecuador DnB @ 2.10 (1 u)

Love to see how underrated certain teams are, generally people have more knowledge about where the Swiss players are playing, because we see teams like Basel in the Champions League occasionally and we see talents like Shaqiri in Bayern Munich and bosses like Inler on the midfield in Napoli, sure it's a good team, talented bunch - yet, very very new to this occasion. European teams on South American soil will be a bigger factor than many might consider, it is not just like a regular road game.. it will be humid, hot, sweaty, conditions European teams never face with that kind of regularity as Ecuador and other South American sides. The playing style is completely different, Switzerland are stronger physically in terms of muscle, but Ecuador have the pace and passing game on their side - as well as a 'home advantage' as I believe they will thrive more in the environment. Keep an eye on Ecuador.. I do not see them losing the opener against an average Swiss team.

Summarized futures
1. Brazil/Croatia to advance @ 2.35 (1/10)
2. Spain/Chile to advance @ 3.00 (2/10)
3. Uruguay/Italy to advance @ 2.63 (1/10)
4. France/Ecuador to advance @ 3.00 (1/10)
5. Portugal to finish 2nd @ 2.30 (1/10)
6. Fred to be Top Scorer of World Cup @ 34.00 (1/10)
7. Greece to score fewest goals in World Cup @ 17.00 (1/10)
8. World Cup winners - Portugal @ 29.00 (1/10)

Matches Round 1
1. Chile -1 AH @ 1.95 (3/10)
2. Colombia @ 1.80 (1/10)
3. Ecuador DnB @ 2.10 (1/10)

Had to add this play, been thinking about it ever since the groups were drawn and I saw the spot - have to trust my biggest dark horse candidate of this world cup to a good price.

Chile to win Group B @ 5.00 (1/10)

Thinking about it, Chile should not be these big of underdogs to take the group. We have to keep in mind - the winner of the group will avoid Brazil (very likely) in the first knockout round - which makes this group very important to win. Hypotethically I can see something like this.. Chile to beat Australia comfortably, and against Netherlands, I can see them winning with 1 goal margin, definitely (great price on Chile in this match as well).. Here we already have 6 points, which would set them up with Spain where I think they can get a draw. Spain should be off their "prime time" even if they will still be competitive, the Netherlands should be one of the European flop teams not reaching their standard. Definitely love Chile in this spot.. keep an eye on this team

Opening day, no play on the game today.. just want to enjoy it without having money on it. Adding two plays here instead.

Enjoy my friends! :)


Greece total goals under 2.5 @ 2.00 (1/10)

It a bit ironic to put Greece and the word "goals" in the same sentece as they are very contradicting. First of all I do not see them making the group, which gives them three games to score 3 goals, and I do not see that happening against either side to be honest. Ivory Coast, Japan and Colombia are all better teams in my eyes. I see Greece scoring at most 1 goal if lucky. At evens.. Greece need to score three goals for this to be ruined, no way in my mind.

______________________

Nigeria total goals under 3.5 @ 1.80 (2/10)

With Iran, Bosnia and Argentina, this looks difficult for Nigeria to reach over the line. All teams have stingy defences, or ways of playing except Argentina. Iran are very defensive minded and counter, I can see them keeping it close with Nigera, as well as Bosnia who might not concede either.. and against Argentina, they should be kept off the board. This sums up the fact that we can afford Nigera to score against Bosnia and Iran, one goal in each game.. maybe two versus either of them, and we have Nigeria standing at 3 goals and cash this one - I like the chances.

Adding a play for tonight, with an interesting approach - market can be found on Betsson and probably some other bookies.

Chile over 54.5% possession @ 1.86 (1/10)

If the game goes as everyone plan it to go, Chile will dominate this and domination means possession as it just comes along with it. Moreover, Australia know they will likely lose this game and will try to sit back to defend. This will allow Chile to come in wave after wave with their very technical midfield players. I would not be surprised to see somewhat around 60+ possession for Chile here, and these odds seem very tempting.