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Sweem's World Cup 2014 thread, futures + writeups

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Posted: #51
How dare you bet on Portugal.
I believe Moutinho is the played we should pay special attention to, Ronaldo will get his fair share of Boateng treatment. 

GL for the remaining WC, but I sincerely hope you lose today. 
 
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Posted: #52
Well played Kaiser and all Germany bettors, but to be honest this was not really a match - It was handed to Germany early with the penalty and red card (which is all Portugals own fault) so the Germans really didnt have to do much to win the game.

A unit lost, but while I was drinking beer, I placed a live bet on Mueller to score the 4th goal for fun @ 6.50 which gained the unit back, and a little more ^^ so the day is still in profit.. however, this is not included in my posted record.

YTD: 3-2-0 (+2.51 units)
Accuracy: 60%
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Posting next locked in match shortly..
 
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Posted: #53
Today

Ghana - USA: Pick: Ghana DnB @ 1.71 (2/10)

Good chances of getting the stake returned because I fancy a draw however Ghana being closer to the victory, while I understand this is a sensitive pick to take being American, you don't want to bet against your own team. Ghana though are just more suited for the match itself, and by that I mean physically stronger, more technically gifted, and have a good run of games and experiences (most previous World Cup) to refer to in these occasions, they will have more air under their feet eventhough USA is a nation on the upswing soccer wise.. I feel comfortable pitching in two units on Ghana to claim vital 3 points, but a draw would not surprise me either which is why we cover this up with the Asian +0 (Draw No bet).. should we say 2-1 Ghana, or 1-0..
___________

Tomorrow

Russia - South Korea: Pick: Russia @ 2.00 (2/10)

Capello is a great coach who knows what to do in big occasions, and he has a good enough team to his disposal. The absence of Russian Shirokov is a blow but not huge as in "oh no, we can't beat South Korea", up front I am excited to see Kokorin getting his break through, a very quick player and a sneaky striker with good finishing The Russians will maintain possession, they are physically stronger, and much taller than the South Koreans which gives them a advantage in every single situation really, not least - set pieces. South Korea are less organized of a team, they rely on the Bundelsliga Starlet: Heoung Son Min, but overall I see Russia and Capello coaching his team to a comfortable 2-0 victory
 
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Posted: #54
Locked this one in as well, huge overreaction... had to lock it in. 3 units

June 22nd
USA - Portugal: Pick: Portugal @ 1.80 (3/10)

Huge over reaction, yes Portugal took a big beating from Germany but what did we learn from that? - Nothing at all. Truth is, the game said very little about Germany, and very little about Portugal as well. Coentrao's injury is bad news, Pepe's suspension is bad as well but this will not be a problem that suddenly gives USA a massive chance to win, and the odds movement is an overreaction. Let's face it, even a country like Honduras would have looked good against Portugal if they were rewarded a penalty early and moreover played with one man more for the rest of the game. In my humble opinion, USA should not be happy to see Portugal go down this big, because this will certainly trigger their abilities now and come out and take their revenge on USA being the victim wether it comes hard or easy doesn't matter, but 3 points go to Portugal here who are playing for their existance.. at 1.80, I sign up any day
 
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Posted: #55

Quote Originally Posted by sweem:

Locked this one in as well, huge overreaction... had to lock it in. 3 units

June 22nd
USA - Portugal: Pick: Portugal @ 1.80 (3/10)

Huge over reaction, yes Portugal took a big beating from Germany but what did we learn from that? - Nothing at all. Truth is, the game said very little about Germany, and very little about Portugal as well. Coentrao's injury is bad news, Pepe's suspension is bad as well but this will not be a problem that suddenly gives USA a massive chance to win, and the odds movement is an overreaction. Let's face it, even a country like Honduras would have looked good against Portugal if they were rewarded a penalty early and moreover played with one man more for the rest of the game. In my humble opinion, USA should not be happy to see Portugal go down this big, because this will certainly trigger their abilities now and come out and take their revenge on USA being the victim wether it comes hard or easy doesn't matter, but 3 points go to Portugal here who are playing for their existance.. at 1.80, I sign up any day

I thought we learned a lot about Portugal.  Ronaldo doesn't look 100%.  The team is pretty tempestuous.  One bad penalty kick and they fall apart.  Never mind the brain fart at the beginning where Portugal would've given away a goal if Khedira could aim straight.  

Yeah, Portugal is playing for their existence.  And they need to win, especially if US wins today.  I just don't know if that's enough.

 
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Posted: #56
Composite - We were given a very unfair view of Portugal, we never saw them play 11 v 11 for an entire game against Germany, yes they had a sloppy spell when Patricio gave away the ball to Khedira, but the same can be said about Lahm who almost gave Ronaldo a goal after losing the ball on his own half. Regardless of today's outcome, it's easy to say "wow Germany won 4-0, Portugal must be awful" nah..not a fair judgement, one player lost his discipline (Pepe) and now the world make massive conclusions such a Ronaldo isn't ready, Portugal are a sinking ship etc. As mentioned, we can say ..Iran, if they were up 1-0 on a penalty and played with more players for the remaining game against Portuhal, chances are they would have looked good as well. With that being said, I just don't buy the conclusions media will make making now after this loss, it doesn't give you a fair picture with one team going down and then have a man sent off with 50-60 minutes to go, it's impossible for Portugal to prove their ability against such a good team. Would have chances to be very very different If a pently didn't set the tone, and if a red card wasn't given. Replay this game 11 v 11, and we would have seen a different game, and the odds would not have raised to 1.80 on Portugal vs USA, so it's all extra value now.
 
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Posted: #57
I agree with you on this one, will be locking in Portugal ML in a little bit. Bear in mind that Meireles will most likely be suspended as well, so that's another miss against the US. But overall this team should get the win against the US (sorry to everyone though, I hope they don't)
 
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Posted: #58
Kaiser - Nice run on your World Cup thread mate, keep it up :) and congratulations on your boys today, although I would have wished to see a more exiting game to really see a fair judgement on both teams of how good they really are. Regarding the game against the US, I like US and envy their progress soccer wise, but when they face a team of Portugals caliber, who recently got beat badly and have everything to prove, the ML at 1.80 is madness, had long thoughts of going 5-6 units on it but 3 will be enough, money management at this point is important. I was honestly surprised to see Meireles starting today, would love to see the young William Carvalho start instead, so much stronger and more comfortable on the ball than Meireles, so if he is suspended next game - that makes it interesting to me, Carvalho is class (being watched by Arsenal, United & Real Madrid) and I would love to see his participation. I can completely see Ronaldo waking up in the next game vs USA, like he did when it matters the most against Sweden in the last qualifiers..there are more experience and winning mentality in Portugal overall, so I have no hesitation about this one. But..World Cup has proven to be tricky so far, but on a realistic angle, it's a no brainer with the ML
 
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Posted: #59

Quote Originally Posted by sweem:

Composite - We were given a very unfair view of Portugal, we never saw them play 11 v 11 for an entire game against Germany, yes they had a sloppy spell when Patricio gave away the ball to Khedira, but the same can be said about Lahm who almost gave Ronaldo a goal after losing the ball on his own half. Regardless of today's outcome, it's easy to say "wow Germany won 4-0, Portugal must be awful" nah..not a fair judgement, one player lost his discipline (Pepe) and now the world make massive conclusions such a Ronaldo isn't ready, Portugal are a sinking ship etc. As mentioned, we can say ..Iran, if they were up 1-0 on a penalty and played with more players for the remaining game against Portuhal, chances are they would have looked good as well. With that being said, I just don't buy the conclusions media will make making now after this loss, it doesn't give you a fair picture with one team going down and then have a man sent off with 50-60 minutes to go, it's impossible for Portugal to prove their ability against such a good team. Would have chances to be very very different If a pently didn't set the tone, and if a red card wasn't given. Replay this game 11 v 11, and we would have seen a different game, and the odds would not have raised to 1.80 on Portugal vs USA, so it's all extra value now.

I understand. There's a huge possibility that everyone is overreacting.  My biggest issue actually, was watching Ronaldo when he did receive the ball.  He seemed tentative.  I just wonder if he's 100%

 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by composite:

I understand. There's a huge possibility that everyone is overreacting.  My biggest issue actually, was watching Ronaldo when he did receive the ball.  He seemed tentative.  I just wonder if he's 100%



I can just assume this is because the game was over in half time, didn't seem to be motivated to do well or trying too hard to risk his injury get any worse. He told media "I feel 100%" which according to Portuguese insight media means "he actually means 80%" so I agree, he is not yet 100% but only himself know how he feels..we can only speculate. However, I think even a Ronaldo at 50% can cause USA a lot of damage, so his status does not concern me too much. Knowing Ronaldo with the persistent ego he has when it matters, it makes him a better player no matter if people like it or not ^^
 
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Posted: #61
you always have good plays sweem but with all respect to you even without red card they woud lose, portugal cant be compared to germany ronaldo is great but rest of his team is not so special. i am pretty sure germany will win world cup and will place bet on it
good luck with Ghana!
 
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Posted: #62
@Alex,
Germany and Portugal are generally two evenly matched teams to me, I might be biased but the difference is clearly not 4 goals between the teams, so the game was very misleading today. Germany have a good shot as always on winning any tournament, I like the play!

Unfortunately Ghana cost us two units, USA showed spirit despite being pretty heavily dominated in the second half.

YTD: 3-3-0 (+0.51 units)
 
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Posted: #63
Two plays for tomorrow, and then the Portugal vs USA game on the 22nd is on the agenda. Let's hope for a good one.

Belgium - Algeria: Pick: Belgium -1.5 @ 2.20 (1/10)
(Risky first game, but odds are appealing, Algeria on a good run)

Everyone's big love of this world cup has turned out to be Belgium, the team with perhaps the most interesting generation coming into the tournament. They have big expectations to fill, as many expect them to reach their potential in the tournament. They take on Algeria for their opening game, a side that I respect a lot despite their anonymity, with their star players being stationed in the French league on a regular basis, and their strikeforce being led by Islam Slimani, the Sporting Lisbon striker. Offensively, Algeria has potential to harm, however defensively it is a bit of "Wild Western", no real structure and clearly the achilles heel of the team. Belgium have several players in major teams around in Europe, and anything but a win would be seen as a failure against Algeria. I see victory coming, Belgium have a really good chance in the tournament and Algeria should not be an obstacle to deprive them of a good start.
__________________________

Russia - South Korea: Pick: Russia @ 2.00 (2/10)
(size matters, Russia with loads of continuity in the team favors them here as well)

Capello is a great coach who knows what to do in big occasions, and he has a good enough team to his disposal. The absence of Russian Shirokov is a blow but not huge as in "oh no, we can't beat South Korea", up front I am excited to see Kokorin getting his break through, a very quick player and a sneaky striker with good finishing The Russians will maintain possession, they are physically stronger, and much taller than the South Koreans which gives them a advantage in every single situation really, not least - set pieces. South Korea are less organized of a team, they rely on the Bundelsliga Starlet: Heoung Son Min, but overall I see Russia and Capello coaching his team to a comfortable 2-0 victory
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by sweem:

Well played Kaiser and all Germany bettors, but to be honest this was not really a match - It was handed to Germany early with the penalty and red card (which is all Portugals own fault) so the Germans really didnt have to do much to win the game.

A unit lost, but while I was drinking beer, I placed a live bet on Mueller to score the 4th goal for fun @ 6.50 which gained the unit back, and a little more ^^ so the day is still in profit.. however, this is not included in my posted record.

YTD: 3-2-0 (+2.51 units)
Accuracy: 60%
_________________

Posting next locked in match shortly..

Sweem,   I know you are a big Portugal fan, but you can't possibly say" this one was handed to Germany ". It was already 2 - 0 when Pepe lost his cool, and they were controlling the game to that point ( 11 on 11 ). 
Sorry, you don't want to give credit where credit was due. Ronaldo, 100 % or not, plays for himself, and that was just as big a factor today as anything. Germany " the team " beat Portugal, the divided. That's how I saw it. 

 All the best on your future plays 
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by franz555:


Sweem,   I know you are a big Portugal fan, but you can't possibly say" this one was handed to Germany ". It was already 2 - 0 when Pepe lost his cool, and they were controlling the game to that point ( 11 on 11 ). 
Sorry, you don't want to give credit where credit was due. Ronaldo, 100 % or not, plays for himself, and that was just as big a factor today as anything. Germany " the team " beat Portugal, the divided. That's how I saw it. 

 All the best on your future plays 


Franz, Appreciate the input - by "handed to Germany" I did not mean the referee or anything did something wrong, but just meant we didn't get to see the game that was expected, the tight battle between two big European teams. 11 on 11, it was 2-0 already yes, but these came after: 1 penatly early that set the tone, and a corner. Would be fun to see if Portugal could establish something if they got to play with a full team the entire game, as a 2-0 lead is never safe in football, we have seen Germany dropping leads before such as Sweden 4-0 to 4-4, and questionable against Cameroon where they conceded twice as well. Not to take anything away from Germany, they looked sharp - but again, it's easy to "shine" against a team who plays with one man short and concedes a penalty the first thing in the game.

Well deserved in the end, but just think the win would not come easy at all if playing with full teams for 90 minutes.

Best of luck to Germany and your plays as well Franz
 
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Posted: #66
Bit of a frustration dry-spell as the margins are just off at the moment.. we keep battling on though. I am positive it will turn around though, no stress or panic. Tomorrows added plays below.

Spain - Chile: Pick: Chile +1 AH @ 2.02 (1/10)

Last chance for Spain to grab a win for their survival after looking very pale in the opener against Netherlands where we witnessed what can be described as murder on a football pitch. Is the revenge feeling really there? Or are Spain simply on a downhill? Regardless, Spain will need to come out with a very sharp performance to wreck Chile and gain some goals on their goal difference. With this in mind, expect Spain to have an unusually offensive approach. Chile on the other side easily got past Australia although we did not see the best of Chile - perhaps they were a tad unmotivated against such a lowly considered opponent, but the story should be different here. Chile have a really dangerous team, and at this environment with the support on top of it, I can see them giving Spain a dog fight. Chile have a tendency to step up and reach their maximum level when they face a good opponent. Thereof I am in love with the play on +1 Asian Handicap on Chile here, and for those of you who enjoys upsets - straight Chilean victory at around 6.00 is playable.

Positives with the play
- We get the stake back should Spain win by 1 goal difference, good safety net.

- Spain's current situation makes up for a closer game than suggested

- Chile are still not justified as a good team by sportsbook's seen by the odds (hence the value)

Negatives with the play
- Spain with loads of experience compared to Chile

- Can the Chilean high risk-taking defense handle Spains creativity for 90 minutes?
______________________________

Cameroon - Croatia: Pick: Croatia -1 AH @ 2.05 (3/10)

Do or die for Croatia here to push their lives to a final round against Mexico. It is notable that Croatia would need a couple of goals here to build up good circumstances for the clash versus Mexico. Cameroon without Samuel Etoo will have to be really sharp to battle with this Croatian side who really played their hearts out against Brazil. Mandzukic is back in the team so we can expect lots of danger inside the Cameroon penalty area. Cameroon's defense did look very amateur-level against Mexico several times and this is something that the Croats should use with their creativeness in the trio of Kovacic, Rakitic and Modric.

Positives with the pick
- Croatia have to win which means constant attacking which almost promises goals

- Cameroon without Etoo should be nearly harmless in an already weak offense

- Mandzukic is back for Croatia which immediately strenghtens their attack a lot

Negatives with the pick
- Croatia feel too much pressure & act sloppy/frustrated if goals doesn't come easy?

- Cameroon know this is their last chance as well to pull the upset, motivated to perform well.

 
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Posted: #67
YTD: 3-4-0 (-1.49 units)

Despite the negative units at present, many of the futures are looking very bright - which should see us end up comfortably in green

Some futures to keep an eye on at the moment
Nigeria under 3.5 goals @ 1.80 (2/10)
Greece under 2.5 goals @ 2.00 (1/10)
Chile to win group B @ 5.00 (1/10)
Greece to score fewest goals in WC @ 17.00 (1/10)
 
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Posted: #68
 Sweem,     This is a marathon, and not a sprint. I have absolutely no doubt you will be ahead at the finish line. I'm a big fan......wish I knew what you know, 30 years ago.
Keep at it buddy 

 
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Posted: #69
Like your Chile Pick...Croatia are overpriced
 
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Posted: #70
agree with DJ, i like also Chile, but not Croatia

GL sweem
 
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Posted: #71
@Franz
- You got it mate, it's a marathon :) been quite a difficult World Cup for many so far, many unpredictable outcomes that really pushes the thinking and reasoning to the limit. Highly appreciate the comment Franz, you're a class act and a role model on the forum. Fingers crossed for your Dutchies tomorrow 

@DJ
- Thanks DJ, hope Chile can upset, loving them as dark horses through the tourney. Croatia are a little too overpriced, would prefer to see them at 1.75 at least but the line has lost its value. However I feel it's typical Southern Europe mentality to step up in critical situations like this one, totally expecting a win - by 1 goal wouldn't matter to much, the Asian handicap offered a quite attractive chance in case they would manage to really put Cameroon to the test which I think they will do.. the Africans defense looked absolutely horrid versus Mexico, seeing Rakitic especially finding tons of space to operate on. Let's see how it goes ^^ Have a fine one DJ!  Same can be said here, you're a role model on the Forum.

@SG99
- I understand Croatia feels like a stay-away game but really see it going one way. Chile with a good chance to upset Spain on south american soil, will be a dandy  have a good one dude.

 
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Posted: #72

Gm Sweem,

 When you put 3/10 by crotia, what does that mean?"

Thx for all your work and help  Pete, and most of all ur patitence

 
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Posted: #73

1 more question, what does Ah mean,  thx again

 I am enjoying the soccer but need help with the terminogly

Pete

 
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Posted: #74
@Pete: No worries!, so (3/10) means I'm risking 3 units out of 10, on that particular game. Usually, the higher number before the "10" - the more comfortable I feel about the game. And AH means "Asian Handicap", it has lines such as +1, -1, +1.5, -1.5 etc.
 
 
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Posted: #75
BOL Sweem! Im also on Croatia and Chile; as well as the Chile over 2.75….


Lets have a winning day!! 
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