We are a few days away from kick off of the biggest tournament in footy. I will as always try to look for value on a menu of wagers that is bigger then ever thanks to the growth of the industry over the past decade. My individual game posts will start when the officials are announced. That according to FIFA is 72 hours prior to kickoff. Tuesday November 15th is the date when all the squads will be finalized.
In my opinion I expect this "winter" world cup will be very chalky. The players are not worn out as they would be at the end of a long season in June. All the stadiums are very close so there is no crazy travel as there was in Russia and Brazil. The weather will be great no crazy heat or humidity. All these factors should make it a great tournament for the players.
I do not fancy any team outside of UEFA or CONMEBOL to make it to the final four. I will be playing a few futures before the whole show kicks off.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Greetings everyone
We are a few days away from kick off of the biggest tournament in footy. I will as always try to look for value on a menu of wagers that is bigger then ever thanks to the growth of the industry over the past decade. My individual game posts will start when the officials are announced. That according to FIFA is 72 hours prior to kickoff. Tuesday November 15th is the date when all the squads will be finalized.
In my opinion I expect this "winter" world cup will be very chalky. The players are not worn out as they would be at the end of a long season in June. All the stadiums are very close so there is no crazy travel as there was in Russia and Brazil. The weather will be great no crazy heat or humidity. All these factors should make it a great tournament for the players.
I do not fancy any team outside of UEFA or CONMEBOL to make it to the final four. I will be playing a few futures before the whole show kicks off.
The award presented to the top goalscorer. The top 6 favourites according to the odds makers are Kane, Mbappe, Messi, Neymar, Benzema & Ronaldo. Can anyone of these win it? sure, but they offer zero value. I need odds of at least 20-1 to back anyone. No one has ever won more than one and I don't think Kane repeats as in 2018 he had 5 goals against two cupcakes Tunisia & Panama. England's group is not as easy as it was the last world cup. It helps if your team makes it to the final but not necessary as in the case of James Rodriguez in 2014. In 2010 & 2006 it took only 5 goals to win it with the likes of Muller & Klose. In 1994 Salenko scored 5 goals for Russia in ONE game. So digging deep I am throwing some pizza money on 2 long shots;
2. Robert Lewandowski (POL) @ 51.00/+5000 (1/2 unit) WillHill
Both of the players will play the worst team in the tournament in Saudi Arabia and it would be no surprise if we see a hat trick versus that weak team.
I believe Martinez might become the story of the world cup. In the past 15 games for Argentina he has scored in 10 of them. Argentina plays both bad defences in Poland & Mexico and as mentioned before the horrible Saudis. Argentina is second fav to win the cup so expect 7 games if they make it to the final 4 which I believe they will.
This is most likely the last world cup for Lewandowski who needs no introduction. The Polish striker averages roughly a goal per game. Poland could get 4 games and one crazy goal scoring appearance could be in the cards. It also helps he is the penalty taker for Poland. At 50-1 sign me up.
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The Golden Boot
The award presented to the top goalscorer. The top 6 favourites according to the odds makers are Kane, Mbappe, Messi, Neymar, Benzema & Ronaldo. Can anyone of these win it? sure, but they offer zero value. I need odds of at least 20-1 to back anyone. No one has ever won more than one and I don't think Kane repeats as in 2018 he had 5 goals against two cupcakes Tunisia & Panama. England's group is not as easy as it was the last world cup. It helps if your team makes it to the final but not necessary as in the case of James Rodriguez in 2014. In 2010 & 2006 it took only 5 goals to win it with the likes of Muller & Klose. In 1994 Salenko scored 5 goals for Russia in ONE game. So digging deep I am throwing some pizza money on 2 long shots;
2. Robert Lewandowski (POL) @ 51.00/+5000 (1/2 unit) WillHill
Both of the players will play the worst team in the tournament in Saudi Arabia and it would be no surprise if we see a hat trick versus that weak team.
I believe Martinez might become the story of the world cup. In the past 15 games for Argentina he has scored in 10 of them. Argentina plays both bad defences in Poland & Mexico and as mentioned before the horrible Saudis. Argentina is second fav to win the cup so expect 7 games if they make it to the final 4 which I believe they will.
This is most likely the last world cup for Lewandowski who needs no introduction. The Polish striker averages roughly a goal per game. Poland could get 4 games and one crazy goal scoring appearance could be in the cards. It also helps he is the penalty taker for Poland. At 50-1 sign me up.
I am not a soccer guy AT ALL but I’ve always followed the World Cup…your comment about life changing struck me as I can remember what I was doing during each of the tournaments….I watched Poland with my ex brother in law the last tournament , not a thought in my mind I would ever be divorced at the time
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I am not a soccer guy AT ALL but I’ve always followed the World Cup…your comment about life changing struck me as I can remember what I was doing during each of the tournaments….I watched Poland with my ex brother in law the last tournament , not a thought in my mind I would ever be divorced at the time
No surprise I am backing the Dutch to top the table in this easy group. Even without a clear choice goalkeeper and a banged up Memphis Depay they should win every game with ease.
I am picking Qatar to advance on home soil here. Every host nation has advanced out of the group outside of South Africa and even they had 4 points in their group. Qatar has spent millions in their preparations on every aspect of the game. On a neutral locations they are the weakest side but they are at home. Qatar has won the 2019 Asian Cup and have plenty of tournament experience. Qatar did not purchase the world cup to exit in the group stage. As the saying goes the answer to your question is the money.
Sadio Mane is injured outside of him where are the goals going to come from? Losses to Zambia and Liberia are worrisome. They are solid at the back but Leipzig's Diallo is also banged up.
As with Senegal, I also ask of Ecuador where are the goals going to come from?. Enner Valencia is old now and playing for Fenerbahce. They are a team built to defend and counter. Recent results are not great having only 2 wins and that was against Cabo Verde and Nigeria. I'm picking them to finish bottom.
3. Qatar to qualify @ 4.25/+325 (1u) Unibet
(One could also consider a dual forecast bet of Qatar & Netherlands @ 7.00/+600 at Will Hill)
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GROUP A
1. Netherlands 2. Qatar 3. Senegal 4. Ecuador
No surprise I am backing the Dutch to top the table in this easy group. Even without a clear choice goalkeeper and a banged up Memphis Depay they should win every game with ease.
I am picking Qatar to advance on home soil here. Every host nation has advanced out of the group outside of South Africa and even they had 4 points in their group. Qatar has spent millions in their preparations on every aspect of the game. On a neutral locations they are the weakest side but they are at home. Qatar has won the 2019 Asian Cup and have plenty of tournament experience. Qatar did not purchase the world cup to exit in the group stage. As the saying goes the answer to your question is the money.
Sadio Mane is injured outside of him where are the goals going to come from? Losses to Zambia and Liberia are worrisome. They are solid at the back but Leipzig's Diallo is also banged up.
As with Senegal, I also ask of Ecuador where are the goals going to come from?. Enner Valencia is old now and playing for Fenerbahce. They are a team built to defend and counter. Recent results are not great having only 2 wins and that was against Cabo Verde and Nigeria. I'm picking them to finish bottom.
3. Qatar to qualify @ 4.25/+325 (1u) Unibet
(One could also consider a dual forecast bet of Qatar & Netherlands @ 7.00/+600 at Will Hill)
This was a very difficult group for me to analyze. I think that England have the quality to top the group despite their recent poor run of form that now sees them winless in their last 6 matches that include 2 losses to Hungary. That leaves three teams that could very well finish in any order. Wales come into the tournament winless in their last 5 games and are led by Bale who now plays in the MLS and has had plenty of poor showings for LA. Iran has fired their coach in July and brought back Carlos for another kick at the can. Players are involved in anti government positions and its hard to tell what to expect from them. The United States are a young and more skilled side in comparison to Iran & Wales and I picked them to qualify despite the fact that their only victory in their last 5 games came versus lowly Granada.
There is no value in backing England to win this group and I would have needed plus money to back the United States to qualify and they just came up short at evens across the board. No futures for me from this group. Expect the unexpected as they say in group b.
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GROUP B
1. England 2. USA 3. Wales 4. Iran
This was a very difficult group for me to analyze. I think that England have the quality to top the group despite their recent poor run of form that now sees them winless in their last 6 matches that include 2 losses to Hungary. That leaves three teams that could very well finish in any order. Wales come into the tournament winless in their last 5 games and are led by Bale who now plays in the MLS and has had plenty of poor showings for LA. Iran has fired their coach in July and brought back Carlos for another kick at the can. Players are involved in anti government positions and its hard to tell what to expect from them. The United States are a young and more skilled side in comparison to Iran & Wales and I picked them to qualify despite the fact that their only victory in their last 5 games came versus lowly Granada.
There is no value in backing England to win this group and I would have needed plus money to back the United States to qualify and they just came up short at evens across the board. No futures for me from this group. Expect the unexpected as they say in group b.
This is going to be a walk in the park for Argentina. The last time they lost a game was back in 2019. They are on a 35 game undefeated run. They come into this tournament with squad depth they have not had in over 2 decades. They are my pick to win the world cup, however I will not be betting them outright at +550 as you can get more value on them by betting them round by round and rolling over the stakes.
Saudi Arabia are the absolute worse team in Qatar. Their strategy will be to park the bus and hope to get lucky somehow, as this team has no attacking threat whatsoever. All the players play in the Saudi league and aside from maube stealing a point I pick them to finish bottom.
Mexico come to Qatar with their worse team in decades. Yes they still qualified but they were winless versus Canada & the USA both home and away in qualification. Their recent wins were versus such world beaters like Iraq, Peru & Suriname. Jimenez is injured which leaves Napoli's Lozano to try to carry the team. Mexico will break the trend of the 5th game as in that they will not qualify out of the group for the first time in forever.
Poland have a deeper squad then Mexico. Lewandowski will want to improve on his 2018 production in Russia and as this will be his swan song he has all the motivation in the world. I personally like Zielinski from Napoli as well as Cash & Bednarek from Aston Villa to have a good tournament. Poland to qualify is the same price as the USA is, yet Poland only really need to beat out Mexico. So I like them to qet through.
4. Poland to qualify @ 2.00/+100 (1u) Unibet
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GROUP C
1. Argentina 2. Poland 3. Mexico 4. Saudi Arabia
This is going to be a walk in the park for Argentina. The last time they lost a game was back in 2019. They are on a 35 game undefeated run. They come into this tournament with squad depth they have not had in over 2 decades. They are my pick to win the world cup, however I will not be betting them outright at +550 as you can get more value on them by betting them round by round and rolling over the stakes.
Saudi Arabia are the absolute worse team in Qatar. Their strategy will be to park the bus and hope to get lucky somehow, as this team has no attacking threat whatsoever. All the players play in the Saudi league and aside from maube stealing a point I pick them to finish bottom.
Mexico come to Qatar with their worse team in decades. Yes they still qualified but they were winless versus Canada & the USA both home and away in qualification. Their recent wins were versus such world beaters like Iraq, Peru & Suriname. Jimenez is injured which leaves Napoli's Lozano to try to carry the team. Mexico will break the trend of the 5th game as in that they will not qualify out of the group for the first time in forever.
Poland have a deeper squad then Mexico. Lewandowski will want to improve on his 2018 production in Russia and as this will be his swan song he has all the motivation in the world. I personally like Zielinski from Napoli as well as Cash & Bednarek from Aston Villa to have a good tournament. Poland to qualify is the same price as the USA is, yet Poland only really need to beat out Mexico. So I like them to qet through.
It is a trendy pick to be backing the Danes for one simple reason. They seem to have France's number. France is winless versus Denmark in their past 3 head to head meetings. 2 losses this year both home and away plus a draw last world cup in Russia. Is the curse of the title holders real? I don't see France imploding but I see them getting knocked out in the round of 16 as Argentina gets their revenge.
I do not give Tunisia a chance here as their only noteworthy player is Skhiri the defensive midfielder from Koln. The Aussies are also missing that superstar player that can be a game changer. Australia have struggled in qualification losing twice to Japan and being unable to beat the Saudis. They even drew with China and Oman. Barring a miracle they finish bottom.
5. Denmark to win Group D @ 4.00/+300 (1u) Bet365
(I'm also leaning on Australia to finish bottom at evens)
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GROUP D
1. Denmark 2. France 3. Tunisia 4. Australia
It is a trendy pick to be backing the Danes for one simple reason. They seem to have France's number. France is winless versus Denmark in their past 3 head to head meetings. 2 losses this year both home and away plus a draw last world cup in Russia. Is the curse of the title holders real? I don't see France imploding but I see them getting knocked out in the round of 16 as Argentina gets their revenge.
I do not give Tunisia a chance here as their only noteworthy player is Skhiri the defensive midfielder from Koln. The Aussies are also missing that superstar player that can be a game changer. Australia have struggled in qualification losing twice to Japan and being unable to beat the Saudis. They even drew with China and Oman. Barring a miracle they finish bottom.
5. Denmark to win Group D @ 4.00/+300 (1u) Bet365
(I'm also leaning on Australia to finish bottom at evens)
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unreal , we are 6 days away from the show 
DJ-looking forward to it-thanks again for posting!
Hope it falls your way. 
England, Netherlands, Argentina, Denmark, Croatia, Germany, Belgium, Spain, France, Switzerland, Portugal, Brazil 
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