Futures Bets Summarized
1. Lautaro Martinez (ARG) @ 26.00/+2500 (1/2 unit) Bet365
2. Robert Lewandowski (POL) @ 51.00/+5000 (1/2 unit) WillHill
3. Qatar to qualify @ 4.25/+325 (1u) Unibet
4. Poland to qualify @ 2.00/+100 (1u) Unibet
5. Denmark to win Group D @ 4.00/+300 (1u) Bet365
6. Costa Rica total points 0 @ 3.25/+225 (1u) Skybet
7. Morocco to advance @ 3.25/+225 (1u) Skybet
8. Senegal to finish bottom @ 4.00/+300 (1u) Unibet
I am seeing Uruguay +145 to finish runner up and Portugal +200 to finish runner up in group H -- betting those 2 much better than betting S. Korea and Ghana to finish last
Qatar v Ecuador
1. Qatar +0.25 @ 1.83/-120 (2u) Pinnacle
2. Total Goals Under 2 @ 1.92/-108 (1u) Bet365
3. Total Cards OVER 4.5 @ 2.20/+120 (1u) Bet365
Starting off with a trio of wagers for the opening game of the tournament. Never has the host of a wold cup lost its opening game. This will be the easiest opponent that the hosts will face so I think its a must they get something from the game. There have been rumors of bribes being offered to some Ecuadorian players. I don't even think you need to bribe Ecuador just look at their last 5 results 0-0,0-0,0-0,1-0,0-0. They won against Cabo Verde. As we all know the opening match at the world cup is teams playing not to lose in their first game especially the underdogs. These sides did play one another back in 2018 when Qatar came out on top 4-3. This line should be at +160 for both sides.
Ecuador is also the dirtiest team at the tournament amassing 40 yellows and 3 red cards in qualification. Compare that to England who are the cleanest with 13 yellows and zero red cards. Daniele Orsato has been named the referee for this game he averages 4.78 yellow cards per officiated game as well as a 26.1% chance of a penalty being called.
LEANS
Player sent off YES @ 5.30/+430 Unibet
PK in match YES @ 3.40/+240 Bet365
England v Iran
4. England win to Nil @ 1.80/-125 (1u) Bet365
5. Total Goals Under 2.25 @ 1.86/-108 (1u) Bet365
6. Total Cards Under 3.5 @ 1.80/-125 (1u) Unibet
I'm expecting England to come into this match with a 3-4-3 formation. Hoping the trio up front of Saka, Foden and Kane can provide some firepower that until a recently has been missing. England did score 3 versus Germany their last game out but might find it difficult to break down Iran at least initially. This is the first game that kicks off on Monday when the temperature might still be hot. I'm expecting a slow start followed by England's quality to come through in the second.
Iran play a very defensive 4-5-1 formation under Queiroz whose tactics resulted in Iran keepind 10 clean sheets in internations under his helm. Th sole man up for Iran Azmoun has a calf injury and might not be 100% so its hard to see where the goals are going to come from.
England are also the cleanest side it the tournament and now have the fortune to have drawn referee Raphael Claus from Brazil who happens to be the most lenient official in Qatar averaging only 1 yellow card per game and 0.09 red cards. So outside of a yellow or two for Iran I expect a clean game
LEAN
England/Iran HT Result DRAW @ 2.28/+128 Unibet
Netherlands v Senegal
7. HT result DRAW @ 2.23/+123 (1u) Pinnacle
Too many people are expecting goals in this fixture but are clearly not realizing that both sides are missing their top goal scorer. Memphis Depay is out for the Netherlands as is Mane for Senegal. Sadio Mane was involved in 12 of the past 25 goals for Senegal and Depay was the leading goal scorer for the Netherlands in qualification. The past 4 games for Senegal have gone under the total and the past 2 games for the Netherlands have gone under the total. Sadly there is no value in backing the under but I do like a slow start since these sides have never met before and Senegal's strength is at the back. Senegal lack a clear goal scoring threat and the Netherlands will be happy with a low scoring victory.
Senegal have some questionable losses lately in losses to Liberia and Zambia and having to go to penalties against poor sides like Eswatini and Mozambique. Netherlands win this and keeps a clean sheet.
LEAN
Netherlands win to Nil @ 2.37/+137 Bet365
Wales v USA
8. FT DRAW @ 3.16/+216 (1u) Pinnacle
Both sides come into this opening game limping into the world cup. The USA finished 3rd in Concacaf and are struggling for identity where as Wales had to go through a playoff with a win over the Ukraine at home. Form wise Wales have 1 draw and 4 losses and were relegated from the Nations league. The United States have only one win in their last 5 games and that was to lowly Granada. Both sides will also be looking to their scoring talismans to provide anything. Pulisic for the USA has been involved in 19 out of the past 23 goals scoring 12 and adding 7 assists. Wales will be looking to old man Bale who always shows up for his county.
This will be a game neither team will want to lose and it should play out that way. The last time these sides met resulted in a 0-0 draw. Everything points to a 1-1 scoreline
LEAN
Total Goals Under 2 @ 2.08/+108 Bet365
Wales v USA
9. Argentina -2 @ 1.99/-101 (2u) Bet365
We have arguably the best team at the tournament facing the worst team. Form wise in the last 5 games by Argentina all wins 3-0, 5-0, 3-0. 5-0, 4-0. At the last world cup Russia beat the Saudis 5-0 at the 2006 world cup they got smoked 4-0 by the Ukraine. This could get very ugly very fast. There is no need doing a deep dive into this game as there will be one way traffic all game long
LEAN
Martinez anytime goal scorer @ 2.20/+120 Will Hill
Denmark v Tunisia
10. Denmark -1 @ 2.16/+116 (1u) Pinnacle
The cat is out of the bag when it comes to Denmark as far as them being a dark horse team. The Danes have had a near perfect qualification campaign with 27 points in 10 games. They followed that by getting 12 out of 18 points in the nations league. They were the semi finalists at the Euros. Led by talisman Christian Eriksen and anchored by key spurs midfielder Hojbjerg, I expect a comfortable victory and if I did not have a future on them I would have put 2 units on this wager. I am also tempted to sprinkle some pizza money on their fullback Maehle to score at a decent price.
Tunisia have lost 60%of their world cup games which is 3rd worse behind only Saudi Arabia 69% who are 1st and Australia second at 63%. They have also failed to beat any UEFA team in the world cup. I think they might surprise and get a result versus their former colony France and most likely beat up on the Aussies but I don't expect them to get anything out of this match. Wahbi Khazri is the danger man to watch for Tunisia. He has 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 4 Tunisia goals at the world cup.
LEAN
Joakim Maehle anytime goal scorer @ 5.50/+450 Bet365
Poland v Mexico
11. Poland PK @ 2.19/+119 (1u) Pinnacle
Here we have an instance of brand name bias. Mexico usually have had really decent teams over the past 30 years and managed to get out of their group all the time where as Poland has never made it out of their group since 1986. Let me tell you this Mexican side is the worse in decades. They failed to win one game vs Canada and the USA in qualification both home and away and could not even beat Costa Rica at home. Tato Martinez is on a short leash and IMO will be the first manager to get canned.
Lets look at the 2 teams both nations have played recently. Poland wins versus Chile & Mexico draws Chile. Poland beats Sweden and Mexico loses to Sweden. Mexico will most likely have the majority of the ball as Poland usually love to counter. Initially I liked the draw but the value is in Poland draw no bet. Likely scoreline 1-1, 2-1 Poland.
LEAN
BTTS YES @ 2.06/+106 Pinnacle
France v Australia
12. Total goals Under 2.5 @ 2.19/+119 (1u) Marathon
Even with all the drama and a plethora of injuries in the French squad they will field a starting 11 that is head and shoulders more superior to Australia. There is no value in backing Les Blues at the current odds. Form wise the Aussies have won 5 straight where as France have only won once in the past 5 games. These sides met at the last world cup where France came out on top 2-1, there were 2 penalties and an own goal in that game.
I like the value in the total here. France have gone 5 games going under 2.5 goals and Australia's last 3 games have also gone under. Getting plus money here is worth a shot.
LEAN
HT Result DRAW @ 2.77/+177 Pinnacle
Morocco v Croatia
13. Total cards OVER 4 @ 1.91/-110 (1u) Bet365
I already have a future on Morocco to advance so I'm hoping for a decent showing from them in their opener. Croatia are a very difficult team for me to read. I really won't be surprised if one of them or Belgium burn out in the group stage. I will wait to see the results before betting against them.
I do like a card prop here as the referee for this game is Fernando Rapallini from Argentina and he averages 5.20 yellow cards per game and a sending off in almost 40% of his games. We have yet to see a red card in the tournament and those count as 2 cards in card prop betting.
LEAN
Morocco +0.25 @ 2.08/+108 Bet365
Germany v Japan
14. Total Goals OVER 2.75 @ 1.84/-119 (1u) Pinnacle
Germany have managed to keep only 2 clean sheets this year. Recent results have been goal fests like the 3-3 draw with England and the 5-2 win over Italy. Germany were the second highest scoring team in qualification for this tournament. Japan have scored 20 goals in their last 10 games. I rarely if ever play an over in the 1st game of the world cup but this fixture screams goals. At the last world cup Japan had 3 of their 4 games go over the total. Germany with Muller, Musiala, Sane & Havertz have tons of scoring threats. Japans main man Minamino has scored 10 goals in qualifiers and offers decent value to put a scare into the Germans.
I still think Germany's quality will shine through and they should come out victorious, but don't underestimate a sneaky good Japanese side.
LEAN
Minamino anytime goalscorer @ 5.00/+400 Bet365
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