I'm taking the tries and tested capping approach of take the better team in this game. Costa Rica are no longer the team they were in 2014 even though most of those wh played on that team are still on the team. They barely qualified for the tournament. At the last world cup they managed one point and scored 2 goals. They are my pick to finish bottom in this group.
Spain will want to redeem their premature exit in the 2018 world cup where they only managed one 1-0 win over Iran. They are loaded with talent as always. The last time these sides met Spain came out on top 5-0. Unless this is Saudi Arabia part 2 the Spaniards roll.
LEAN
CS Spain 2-0 @ 2.08/+108 Bet365
0
Spain v Costa Rica
15. Spain win to Nil @ 1.67/-149 (1u) Bet365
I'm taking the tries and tested capping approach of take the better team in this game. Costa Rica are no longer the team they were in 2014 even though most of those wh played on that team are still on the team. They barely qualified for the tournament. At the last world cup they managed one point and scored 2 goals. They are my pick to finish bottom in this group.
Spain will want to redeem their premature exit in the 2018 world cup where they only managed one 1-0 win over Iran. They are loaded with talent as always. The last time these sides met Spain came out on top 5-0. Unless this is Saudi Arabia part 2 the Spaniards roll.
Both countries have plenty of talent up front and in midfield. Belgium is ranked #2 in the world not by mistake. I think Canada will have their hands full but with the ageing Belgium defence they should be able to play a very fast counter style of game that the slower Belgium defenders might make mistakes.
Form wise Belgium lost their last 2 games to Egypt and the Netherlands where as Canada beat Japan and drew Bahrain.. Lukaku is injured and not playing up front which I think is a big blow for Belgium.
LEAN
CS DRAW 1-1 @ 8.50/+750 Bet365
0
Canada v Belgium
16. BTTS Yes @ 1.85/-117(1u) Will Hill
Both countries have plenty of talent up front and in midfield. Belgium is ranked #2 in the world not by mistake. I think Canada will have their hands full but with the ageing Belgium defence they should be able to play a very fast counter style of game that the slower Belgium defenders might make mistakes.
Form wise Belgium lost their last 2 games to Egypt and the Netherlands where as Canada beat Japan and drew Bahrain.. Lukaku is injured and not playing up front which I think is a big blow for Belgium.
When I first guessed the lines for the opening round of matches I had this pegged at 1.50/-200 and it was the biggest discrepancy in my analysis. I'm sticking to my pick the better team strategy and making this my biggest bet so far.
Cameroon come into this game in a very poor run of form winless in their past 4 games including losses to Uzbekistan and Korea while drawing with Panama & Jamaica. The Swiss on the other hand beat the likes of Spain in Spain and Portugal back in June far more superior opposition then Cameroon. The Swiss were undefeated in the group stage that included Brazil in the last world cup where as Cameroon did not even qualify. The last time Cameroon qualified was in 2014 where they lost all 3 of their group games.
Facundo Tello is the match official and his games average 5.20 yellow cards per game. We are also still have had all these games without a red card could one be due?
LEAN
Yellow cards Over 4 @ 1.95/-105 Bet365
1
Cameroon v Switzerland
17. Switzerland ML @ 1.76/-132 (3u) Pinnacle
When I first guessed the lines for the opening round of matches I had this pegged at 1.50/-200 and it was the biggest discrepancy in my analysis. I'm sticking to my pick the better team strategy and making this my biggest bet so far.
Cameroon come into this game in a very poor run of form winless in their past 4 games including losses to Uzbekistan and Korea while drawing with Panama & Jamaica. The Swiss on the other hand beat the likes of Spain in Spain and Portugal back in June far more superior opposition then Cameroon. The Swiss were undefeated in the group stage that included Brazil in the last world cup where as Cameroon did not even qualify. The last time Cameroon qualified was in 2014 where they lost all 3 of their group games.
Facundo Tello is the match official and his games average 5.20 yellow cards per game. We are also still have had all these games without a red card could one be due?
I tried digging deep into all the markets and everything seems to be prized right. Uruguay should win,but I'm not backing them at these prices. The goal total looked tempting for the over as Korea tend to play an open style but looking at the recent results of Uruguay they, form wise trend to the under. Nothing in props in this one either I looked at Nunez as an anytime goalscorer but passed. I need to watch these teams and how they start this game. 7 of the past 10 games for Korea have gone over 2.5 so maybe the over 2 offers a tad of value.
I'm looking to play this In Game and hoping that If Korea get the first goal in the 1st half, I'll look to back Uruguay on the Corners over & the next team to score.
LEAN
Total Goals Over 2 @ 1.75/-133 Pinnacle
0
South Korea v Uruguay
NO PLAYS
I tried digging deep into all the markets and everything seems to be prized right. Uruguay should win,but I'm not backing them at these prices. The goal total looked tempting for the over as Korea tend to play an open style but looking at the recent results of Uruguay they, form wise trend to the under. Nothing in props in this one either I looked at Nunez as an anytime goalscorer but passed. I need to watch these teams and how they start this game. 7 of the past 10 games for Korea have gone over 2.5 so maybe the over 2 offers a tad of value.
I'm looking to play this In Game and hoping that If Korea get the first goal in the 1st half, I'll look to back Uruguay on the Corners over & the next team to score.
I see no value backing Portugal at the current odds even though I do see them winning this game. Portugal always make life difficult for themselves in the group stages. Ghana have had decent results lately and their only loss has been to Brazil. I was thinking of backing both teams to score but the BTTS has not cashed in the last 8 games for Ghana & Portugal as well have not had BTTS cash in their past 6. No props stand out so I will be looking to play this in game if at all.
LEAN
Total Goals Over 2.5 @ 1.83/-120 Pinnacle
0
Portugal v Ghana
NO PLAYS
I see no value backing Portugal at the current odds even though I do see them winning this game. Portugal always make life difficult for themselves in the group stages. Ghana have had decent results lately and their only loss has been to Brazil. I was thinking of backing both teams to score but the BTTS has not cashed in the last 8 games for Ghana & Portugal as well have not had BTTS cash in their past 6. No props stand out so I will be looking to play this in game if at all.
The last meeting between these two in the last world cup ended with a 2-0 win for Brazil and I expect pretty much the same in this game. Looking back at the recent wins by Brazil they beat Paraguay by 4, Chile by 4, Bolivia by 4, Korea by 4 Ghana by 3, Tunisia by 4 and only Japan came close losing by 1. Serbia on the other hand had 2 losses to Denmark & Norway this year where they failed to score. Serbia also could not beat Slovenia. They are a trendy dark horse pick but I think because they are playing Brazil first they know a loss is not the end of the world and I expect them to sit back and try to counter. Serbia's Mitrovic is also not 100% with an ankle injury. I'm backing the better team again 2-0 or 3-0 final.
LEAN
Brazil -1.5 @ 2.22/+122 Pinnacle
0
Brazil v Serbia
18. Brazil -1 @ 1.78/-128 (1u) Will Hill
The last meeting between these two in the last world cup ended with a 2-0 win for Brazil and I expect pretty much the same in this game. Looking back at the recent wins by Brazil they beat Paraguay by 4, Chile by 4, Bolivia by 4, Korea by 4 Ghana by 3, Tunisia by 4 and only Japan came close losing by 1. Serbia on the other hand had 2 losses to Denmark & Norway this year where they failed to score. Serbia also could not beat Slovenia. They are a trendy dark horse pick but I think because they are playing Brazil first they know a loss is not the end of the world and I expect them to sit back and try to counter. Serbia's Mitrovic is also not 100% with an ankle injury. I'm backing the better team again 2-0 or 3-0 final.
Aside from the opening game of the world cup where Ecuador managed to score a pair of goals it has been rough going when it comes to scoring. The previous 5 games they managed 1 goal and were left scoreless in four matches. Coming up versus much superior opposition this time around in the Netherlands who have kept 3 straight clean sheets versus the likes of Belgium, Poland and Senegal. Ecuador with a win already in their pocket will be playing not to lose so that 0-0 scoreline might rear its head but I once again am backing the better team to win.
Aside from the opening game of the world cup where Ecuador managed to score a pair of goals it has been rough going when it comes to scoring. The previous 5 games they managed 1 goal and were left scoreless in four matches. Coming up versus much superior opposition this time around in the Netherlands who have kept 3 straight clean sheets versus the likes of Belgium, Poland and Senegal. Ecuador with a win already in their pocket will be playing not to lose so that 0-0 scoreline might rear its head but I once again am backing the better team to win.
Once again looking to back the better side. England scored at will versus an Iran side that just beat Wales. The USA despite a decent start versus Wales showed their true lack of quality in the second half. England has been scoring at will with now 9 goals in the past 2 games. The United states are now winless in their past 4 games. The last time these two sides met the result was a 3-0 win for England and I'm expecting the same in this match.
LEAN
England team total goals Over 2.5 @ 3.25/+225 Bet365
0
England v USA
21. England -1 @ 1.91/-110 (2u) Marathon
Once again looking to back the better side. England scored at will versus an Iran side that just beat Wales. The USA despite a decent start versus Wales showed their true lack of quality in the second half. England has been scoring at will with now 9 goals in the past 2 games. The United states are now winless in their past 4 games. The last time these two sides met the result was a 3-0 win for England and I'm expecting the same in this match.
LEAN
England team total goals Over 2.5 @ 3.25/+225 Bet365
Frances last 7 games include only 2 wins and those were to Austria $ Australia. In those past 7 games they have 2 losses to their opponents Denmark both home and away 2-0 & 2-1. France had a stronger side not riddled with injuries back when they lost both those games to Denmark. The bookies once again give no respect to recent history. Even if Denmark win this game their next game line would still favour France. France won't be too unhappy with a draw having already blown away Australia.
LEAN
FT Draw @ 3.67/+267 Pinnacle
0
Denmark v France
24. Denmark +0.5 @ 2.10/+110 (1u) Pinnacle
Frances last 7 games include only 2 wins and those were to Austria $ Australia. In those past 7 games they have 2 losses to their opponents Denmark both home and away 2-0 & 2-1. France had a stronger side not riddled with injuries back when they lost both those games to Denmark. The bookies once again give no respect to recent history. Even if Denmark win this game their next game line would still favour France. France won't be too unhappy with a draw having already blown away Australia.
If I go down on a big 3 unit play backing the team that I picked to win it all versus an overrated Mexico side so be it. The last 3 times these sides met we saw scorelines on 4-0, 2-0 & 2-0 all wins by Argentina. Mexico have only 1 win in their last 4 games and that was versus Iraq. Both sides need the 3 points here but with that opening game day loss the la Celeste need it more and I think they get it big.
Daniele Orsato is the official for this game and he was the man in charge for the opening game last Sunday when he issued 6 cards. He averages 4.78 cards per game and Argentina are the 5th dirtiest team at the world cup where as Mexico are the 8th. With the importance of this game being very high for both sides I can see plenty of cards.
LEAN
Argentina -1.5 @ 2.63/+163 Pinnacle
0
Mexico v Argentina
25. Argentina -1 @ 1.93/-107 (3u) Pinnacle
26. Total Cards OVER 5.5 @ 2.10/+110 (1u) Be365
If I go down on a big 3 unit play backing the team that I picked to win it all versus an overrated Mexico side so be it. The last 3 times these sides met we saw scorelines on 4-0, 2-0 & 2-0 all wins by Argentina. Mexico have only 1 win in their last 4 games and that was versus Iraq. Both sides need the 3 points here but with that opening game day loss the la Celeste need it more and I think they get it big.
Daniele Orsato is the official for this game and he was the man in charge for the opening game last Sunday when he issued 6 cards. He averages 4.78 cards per game and Argentina are the 5th dirtiest team at the world cup where as Mexico are the 8th. With the importance of this game being very high for both sides I can see plenty of cards.
Costa Rica were demolished 7-0 so not only will they be playing for pride but also for the 3 points. Japan upset Germany 2-1 and are in a great position to advance with a victory here. The odds therefore based on recency bias are overvaluing Japan and undervaluing the Ticos. Japan are the better team and should win but I'm not betting them at the prices. Since the early games are more in the heat of the day am leaning on the under but I would have preferred a better price.
LEAN
Under 2.5 @ 1.84/-119 Unibet
0
Japan v Costa Rica
NO PLAYS
Costa Rica were demolished 7-0 so not only will they be playing for pride but also for the 3 points. Japan upset Germany 2-1 and are in a great position to advance with a victory here. The odds therefore based on recency bias are overvaluing Japan and undervaluing the Ticos. Japan are the better team and should win but I'm not betting them at the prices. Since the early games are more in the heat of the day am leaning on the under but I would have preferred a better price.
Morocco started the tournament with a draw against Croatia where as Belgium narrowly defeated Canada 1-0. Belgium clearly miss Lukaku up front and it does not look like he will play in this contest. Belgium looked slow and old Croatia looked much better versus Morocco in their game. With 3 points in their pocket Belgium would not be devastated with a draw. Morocco form wise are now undefeated in their last six games. Belgium going back since June are a lack luster 4 wins 3 losses and 1 draw.
LEAN
Draw @ 3.45/+245 Unibet
1
Belgium v Morocco
27. Morocco +0.5 @ 1.89/-112 (1u) Unibet
Morocco started the tournament with a draw against Croatia where as Belgium narrowly defeated Canada 1-0. Belgium clearly miss Lukaku up front and it does not look like he will play in this contest. Belgium looked slow and old Croatia looked much better versus Morocco in their game. With 3 points in their pocket Belgium would not be devastated with a draw. Morocco form wise are now undefeated in their last six games. Belgium going back since June are a lack luster 4 wins 3 losses and 1 draw.
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