Thoughts for tomorrow:
Italy/Costa Rica- Everything on paper, and that I have seen, suggests that Italy will win this game, that Costa Rica will have a very challenging time scoring a goal, and that Italy will score 1 or 2 goals. Italy is a much more consistent team than Uruguay, whether their ceiling is as high remains to be seen, but I am more confident in them to give a solid performance on a game in game out basis, and an implosion to the likes of Uruguay's is just not something that I can see coming from Italy tomorrow. HOWEVER, every so often I get a feeling in my gut that is so strong that I cannot ignore its existence. Many times I have tried and paid the price, and other times I listened to it and been thankful (yes there are times I have listened to it and wanted to injur myself for not going with it). Anyway, something is telling me to stay the hell away from this one tomorrow, and I can't quite put my finger on what exactly that is. My general feeling is that the only possible outcome that could be creating this feeling is a 1-1 draw. I have no tactics to support this, no strengths vs. weaknesses, i have nothing. But this is where I am at right now and cannot make a wager yet...possible plays are UNDER 2.5 and Italy Wins/Costa Rica No Goals.
France/Switzerland- I think this is a match between two solid sides, neither that will give much up. For Switzerland they are coming off a huge win, against the team that they were most likely in competition with for the 2nd spot in this group. France came off a messy game that they always felt like they were supposed to win, the red card made it feel like even less of an achievement. From a psychological standpoint I feel like the French side don't feel like they have accomplished anything yet, and will be coming into tomorrow's match looking for a win. On the Swiss side I think they feel like they have accomplished quite a bit, and if they can just draw France here, they are in great shape going forward. For me this psychological approach pushes me in two directions. First and foremost is towards the UNDER because I think the Swiss will keep things very tight for the 1st Half, and France will be patient in their approach to getting the goal. If the Swiss side scores first I imagine they will tighten things up quite a bit. If the French score first, I think the Swiss will still remain relatively compact until the final third of the game, while France may move the ball around and play a patient game.
Ecuador/Honduras- I have been having trouble decifering these +1 lines, but to me this line seems to be off a bit, and there is much better value in backing Honduras at this price. On paper, I don't particularly like what I see with Honduras, and I don't think I can back them with my money, but at the same time Ecuador is overpriced and also not really worth it for me either. However, there are two angles that I can see being worthwhile in this game. Firstly, is CARDS. Everyone who saw Honduras in the opener knows this is one nasty team that lacks discipline, and will tackle with intent to injur. Ecuador only picked up one card in their opener but have a history of picking up more cards, even red ones. Looking at these two teams they even have a bit of recent history. At the end of 2013 these two teams met in a friendly and a red card a piece was issued to each team. I think it is just a part of the Latin American game, and when two Latin teams play one another it becomes more apparent. I will be looking to make an OVER play on total cards maybe even YES to a player being sent off. My other lean is towards the over, as both teams are in need of 3 points. If Ecuador gets ahead, Honduras will look to equalize, and they will lack defensive discipline in doing so. Even if Ecuador go up 2, Honduras will be chasing the game, and Ecuador will have goal differencial in mind. If Honduras manage to score a goal, which I don't believe is particularly far-fetched, Ecuador will be pressing it all forward to get a 2nd. I like the chances of this one going over the 2.5.
Plays will come later on
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