Kreatture's Playbook

Hey kreatture. First off let me say I appreciate your plays and the time and research you put in. I have a question. I am new to your thread and I still am not exactly sure how you play the runline blitz. Can you or someone explain in full detail how you play this system? From beginning to end, meaning how you make the first pick and what you play if it loses. Thank you very much, and continued success to you!

Click on the Red Title to access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well as each individual month.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Great start with the Atlanta victory! The White Sox lineups are finally released, and altho no Jim Thome tonight, the lineup still looks great with Rios in CF and Podsednik to DH. White Sox have now been locked in!



KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 17TH, 2009

LOCKED IN

RUNLINE BLITZ

CHICAGO WHITE SOX   -110   game1


SPOT PLAYS

NFL Pre-Season
MIAMI DOLPHINS  ML   -150
OVER 33.5   jags / dolphins


Best of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

Well the damn rain delay has messed up the plan for tonight. The Chicago game is only in the 2nd inning and they are behind early 3-0. I'm going to go ahead and assume the worse there, I figured Buehrle would be good tonight, but if he's given up 3 all ready to a bunch of scrubs, there are probably more to come. Locked the Yankees game in as Game2. Texas lookin good.



KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 17TH, 2009

LOCKED IN

RUNLINE BLITZ

NEW YORK YANKEES   -130   game2





Best of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

The Database on the Top5 Home Team Page has now been fully updated to include up-to-date 2nd Half Records of all teams. Some interesting numbers to look at and compare.

Since the 2nd Half is almost half over, these numbers will now also be incorporated into the generation of new plays. For instance, I had Texas down as a play last night, even tho they are currently 6th Overall in Home Records. In the 2nd Half, they are 3rd at 12-5, thus creating an extra play for the System.


Cheers 

It is early in the morning here, and I am ready to go to sleep for a few hours, but I will try to give you a brief description..

The RunLine Blitz was adopted from the thread by the same title here on this forum, created by prof8t. I played the System "as is" for quite awhile, and it was very successful. However, as time went on, I became annoyed with the continuous high juice on the heavy favs and had a few worrisome instances where it went to a Game4.
Over the past couple of months I have been getting more comfortable handicapping the games myself, and through the use of tools similarly found in sports_Networks thread, I believe I can find RunLine games with greater value on a daily basis, rather than just playing the biggest favorite on the board (ie. the atlanta game last night, at +130)

The "Systems" I began playing when I started all of this were just that - Systems. As I have said several times throughout my spreadsheets, a System should be used to purely generate "leans" which the individual capper should then apply his/her skills to determine if that "lean" is strong enough to become a "play".
For this reason, I will usually refer to my "Systems" now as  "Guides", as I do not really play any of them in the pure form anymore. Adaptations should constantly be made to fit the situation. An example of this would be to view June 15th, 2009, on the HFOUDL spreadsheet. This cuts down on the number of wins, but also enables one to weed out more losses.

Therefore, it is impossible to know beforehand what I intend to "play" on the RunLine Blitz. Every day is different and treated accordingly based on a number of factors. Compared to the original laid out System, I have picked up 34.34 Units since July 1st, compared to 30 Units which would have been earned playing the original System. It may not seem like a lot, but an extra 4.34 Units is still an extra 4.34 Units..

I play this with a modified chase system, meaning I will use the standard doubling up to win my Unit. However, if the chase gets over a few hundred dollars for me, I will modify my plays and wagers, and go into a Recovery Process. Details of what that is can be found on the spreadsheet.

Game1 - wager to win 1 Unit
(if loss) Game2 - wager to win the amount lost in Game1, plus 1 Unit
(if loss) Game3 - wager to win the amount lost in Game1 plus Game2, plus 1 Unit.

After a win, go back to Game1 and wager to win 1 Unit. Rarely does it get past 3 games, only 5 times, in fact.


I am quite tired, and I have wrote way more than I intended.. I really love to write, LoL
I am not sure if what I just wrote even makes any sense, but I will answer any other questions tomorrow night.


Cheers 

Click on the Red Title to access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well as each individual month.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nice wins by Atlanta and Texas last night, not so nice blown lead by Chicago and Yankees non-effort. A couple new plays in the Top5 Home Team tonight, while nothing new qualifies in the HFOUDL page. The loss by the Yankees last night was fairly high juice, so today's RL's will be divided up. The spreadsheet will hold all the details.
I am gone for the majority of the day, errands this afternoon and going to see District 9 tonight.



KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 18TH, 2009


RUNLINE BLITZ

TAMPA BAY RAYS
ATLANTA BRAVES
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
NEW YORK YANKEES


HFOUDL

NO PLAYS QUALIFY


TOP 5 HOME TEAM

TAMPA BAY RAYS   (game1 of 3)   -1.5   2 UNIT PLAY  
     -- over -200 filter applied (RL -1.5), Top5 vs. Bot5 double unit play
DETROIT TIGERS   (game1 of 3)   +1.5  
     -- home dog insurance discount applied, rare occurrence





Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

Click on the Red Title to access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well as each individual month.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Last night started off rough, but really ended with a bang! I got home last night just in time to see Baltimore hit a worthless 2 run shot in the 8th to make it 5-4, which rally screwed me over on 2 big plays. I quickly scrambled to get a play in on the Yankees before the cut-off time, and played it fairly large. I noticed the Dodgers game closed 5 minutes later, so took a look there and found great value at +105, so laid it large there too. Was unable to recover the full amount lost from the night before and the early games, but it's down to just over 1 Unit now, so no worries.
There's 1 game on the board tonight which I am absolutely in love with. It's a huge mismatch, but is probably off some people's radar today with so many other high juice favorites. Hopefully Tampa can also cover the RunLine tonight, as they are once again over -200.

Once lunchtime rolls around today, I am out for the entire day/night. So there will definitely not be any added plays to the card.



KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 19TH, 2009


RUNLINE BLITZ

MILWAUKEE BREWERS   -115  


TOP 5 HOME TEAM

TAMPA BAY RAYS   (game2 of 3)   -1.5   2 UNIT PLAY  
     -- over -200 filter applied (RL -1.5), Top5 vs. Bot5 double unit play





Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

Hey Kreatture

    Do you ever get nervous to where you want to play the runline plays at a 3 game chase instead or 6? I am currently on a chase and it seems like after game 4 the amounts start to get a little to high for comfort. Am I better off just to see it through or would you drop to 3 game chase since that is usually how long top 5 chase usually would last

Hey guys, sorry I didn't get to post the Playbook yesterday, hopefully those who care checked the spreadsheet and saw the Red Sox game for the RunLine Blitz.
The spreadsheets are updated for the Top5 Home Team and Hfoudl for tonight, I'll post the plays here in just a bit. Still workin on the RunLine game for tonight.

I will also respond to the questions posted above, and reply to the PM's I've received a little later.


Cheers 

Click on the Red Title to access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well as each individual month.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hasn't been a lot of plays this week, but it's been a perfect week. Up about 8 Units heading into the weekend. It would be nice to double that up over the next few days.



KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 21ST, 2009


RUNLINE BLITZ

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES   -120   game1

there will be another play here tonight, but not for any of the other 7pm et start times


HFOUDL

TORONTO BLUE JAYS   -114   (game1 of 3)


TOP 5 HOME TEAM

TAMPA BAY RAYS   -175   (game1 of 3)
COLORADO ROCKIES   -165   (game1 of 4)




Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

There's a ton of rain up and down the East coast tonight, looks like it might be tough to get a full 9 in tonight for some games. This means some RL wagers may end up void, without the full completion. Therefore, since there are multiple games I like tonight, I have decided to spread it around a little, by adding 2 more games. Hoping to have 2 of the 3 get in tonight for the win. The Houston game, obviously, will be played since they are indoors.



KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 21ST, 2009

LOCKED IN

RUNLINE BLITZ

HOUSTON ASTROS   +105
CHICAGO WHITE SOX   +100

all wagers tonight are treated as a game1, and played to win 1 Unit





Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

RaleighDevil, Thanks for the page information which has helped! It sounds like you are still doing the plus 1 is that working out for you? I like the plus 1 just trying to decide to change it or not since the loses have add up so fast. Units add up fast to the plus side which makes the decision so hard.

I used to get nervous, very nervous. I first started the RunLine Blitz System in May, and I played it "as is" by chasing the biggest favorite of the day. It went to a Game5 less than 2 weeks in, and was on the Cubs. The Cubs were at home and up 6-4 in the bottom of the 8th, then the rains came and the game was called. That was hard to take. The next night it was the Cubs again, and altho I loved the match-up, it was tense. fortunately they won. I was new to Chasing tho and had completely messed up the way to wager it, so the Game5 wager was nowhere near what a real Game5 Chase would have been. Still, it was the biggest wager I had made at that point.

In June, it went to a Game5 once again. There is an interesting write-up on the spreadsheet for this, on June 13th. The favorite for the day were the Yankees, vs. the Mets on a Saturday afternoon. Andy Pettite vs. a rookie call-up. I was, honestly, a train wreck that day. The game seemed solid, but the Subway Series always has interesting games. I hadn't put the wager in the night before, which is what I usually do for RL games. I debated all day on whether to play the game or not. It was at this point where I decided to start looking at other games, rather than just blindly wagering the biggest favorite.
I capped all the late games and the Angels game really stood out to me. It looked about as good as a game could ever look. I placed the full wager and left for the night. I received a couple of text messages later from my roommate with early updates. The Angels scored early, and often, as they cruised 9-1. Man, was THAT ever a great night! It was as close as I have come yet to being wiped out. I started with a very small bankroll of just $500, so it was pretty much for all of it. I believed in the play tho. Fortune smiled upon me that night.

Now that I have a much larger bankroll (about $3000) I do not worry about the RunLine Blitz System. My original Unit size was $25, and has only increased to $35 now, so it's never for an overly large portion anymore. Since I play the System differently now, no, I do not get nervous anymore. Ever. If I was still playing just a straight 6 game Chase? Hell yeah, I think I would be pretty nervous blindly putting my money on a play which has not been handicapped to win, like tonight's Game5 on Atlanta. It was a horrible spot and no one should have put their hard earned money on them tonight.
I can only imagine how tense tomorrow will be for those folks.

I will usually play the straight Chase for 3 or 4 games, depending on how high the wager has become, but after that I go into a Recovery Process to clear things off. This prevents me from ever having to place 1 very large wager on a single game (where anything could happen). It takes a few days to get everything back, but it's stress-free and kinda fun.
It doesn't happen very often tho, I have only ever had to go to a Game 4 six times, and a Game 5 twice. With 53 winners on the Game1, 2 and 3's.

The thing with the RL is there will always be a play everyday to choose from, unlike a series play where you only have 3 or 4 games to get the win. For this reason alone, I think it is worth more to play the Chase for as long as you want.

I had an unusual night tonight, going 0-3 on my RL games. No worries tho, because of the way I play things now I will simply find a group of games tomorrow and break them down to recoup.


I don't know if I answered your question for you, LoL, I gotta stop writing these responses at 5 and 6am, cuz I just write forever and not even remember what I am writing about anymore, HaHa

Let me try this again..

No - I do not get nervous anymore when I am down a few games. Ever.

If you are getting nervous then you're Unit size is too big in proportion to your Overall Bankroll. Money Management needs to be analyzed and re-assessed. When losses do occur, a Recovery Process of some sort should be initialized. If you do not have a Recovery Process, or have never needed one before, then one should be mapped out for when losses do occur.

Think of it like setting up health insurance for when you get sick. The better the plan, the easier it is to get better quickly.


Cheers 

Click on the Red Title to access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well as each individual month.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nice victories by Toronto and Tampa Bay last night. Not worried about the Colorado loss, it's a 4 game series and they will get a win somewhere, probably today.
A rare day on the RunLines, going 0-3. Not sure how a couple of those games ended the way they did..
Opening a new approach to the RunLine Blitz today. Don't be too shocked, yes that really is 9 games listed. Hopefully it won't be disastrous, I will see how it goes.
I'm gone for the day/night once again, so there will be no altercation to the below plays. They are all ready locked in, as is.




KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 22ND, 2009


RUNLINE BLITZ

LA ANGELS   +135
LA DODGERS   +180
ATLANTA BRAVES   +115
CHI. WHITE SOX   +105
PITTSBURGH PIRATES   +160
WASHINGTON NATIONALS   +150
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES   -135
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS   -135
COLORADO ROCKIES   +110


HFOUDL

NO PLAYS - all chases cleared til monday


TOP 5 HOME TEAM

COLORADO ROCKIES   -175   (game2 of 4)




Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

Hey can anyone explain to me why Atlanta is a game five tonight? I thought the system was to pick the biggest fav on the moneyline and to play them on the runline...I dont see Atlanta as the biggest favorite on the moneyline anywhere....please explain

Also I just thought you picked the biggest favorite and played them on the RL....if so....why do you have so many plays...it should be one pick a day right?

You're living in the past my friend.. Atlanta was a game 5 last night for those following prof8t's RunLine Blitz thread. Philadelphia or St. Louis would be your game 6 tonight, over there.

Well now you are just clearly in the wrong thread. You are looking for prof8t's thread.

You obviously have not read this thread or anything I have worked on in the spreadsheet. Please do not post idiotic things in my thread. People do not need their time wasted sifting through junk posts.

Goodbye

Kreatture, Thanks for the response that really helps a lot. I started following your thread probably a month ago now and it really has helped. It looks like what my mistake was blindly following the RL plays of the biggest favorite. This is where all my trouble seems to start. Just needed to take the time to make sure about which run line to play instead of the biggest. I was thinking about getting rid of the run lines all together since it was going so bad. Since it isn't going so well maybe the answer is to lower my unit on runline plays and move it up on the top 5 at home plays which have been money!! Is there any plans to use a chase system in preseason or is the best option to wait until regular season starts?

Huge RunLine Favorites went on a 32-2 run which ended about 2 weeks ago. These were not just 1 game a day, but all huge favs on all days. It was quite a tear. It only makes sense that this number would come back down to earth at some point, and a couple losing streaks of 5 or 6 games would be inevitable.
This, I believe, is just another example of why amateurs go broke so often. They don't recognize these trends and expect to continue batting 90% throughout the season. That's just extremely unrealistic, and lazy.
I see Philadelphia is the big Game6 tonight. Altho this is clearly not the best match-up on the board today, the odds are simply that high because of the name J.A. Happ and the team name, Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets. Mike Pelfrey has dominated Philly over his career, the only team he actual has any success against.
That being said, I have Philly on my list today, as I can't believe Philly will lose 2 in a row in New York, but I may have fallen into that trap as well.. guess we'll see.


As far as your Unit management, that is really up to you on how you want to wager it. The RunLine plays have been very good to me tho, and should be an integral part of any successful handicapper's plays. Be careful if you increase units on the Top5, since you will almost always be paying more juice than any runline plays. I got into big trouble doing this in July. My troubles are all documented in the commentary on the spreadsheet, going back and reading the month of July may provide greater insight.

Pre-season Chasing is tough. I think Spot Playing certain match-ups are a better option for Pre-season. I have not had any extra time whatsoever to do research for this year's NFL pre-season so I haven't played too much. I would have went 3-0 last night, but decided not to wager it since I hadn't done any research on them.
Full card tonight, and sadly, I doubt I will be playing anything.



Best of Luck and continued success 

Well THAT experiment sure worked well today! Ecstatic with the results tonight. Might take the day off tomorrow, as this has been a very nice profitable week, once again!


Cheers