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Kreatture's Playbook

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Posted: #351
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

Well it was looking like a nice 3-1 day until all this bullshit just happened..

Tampa Bay up 3-1 Top9, 1 out no one on, proceeds to give up a grand slam and lose 5-3. That is a tough loss when you have +1.5 insurance and UP 2 in the 9th..

Florida led 4-2 Bot9 then gives up a lead-off homer to a great long ball hitter, Willy Harris (the sarcasm in the text doesn't come out nearly as much as the anger in my eyes..), then they just go ahead and lose the game all together with a Ryan Zimmerman long ball, 5-4 Washington..

Boston leads 3-0 with another gem by Lester in the 7th..  I wonder what Papelbon has up his sleeve today to make it interesting..

And the Braves.. man I don't even want to get started on the Braves.. I feel bad for their fans, it's tough to cheer for a team with no heart whatsoever. The chances of a walk-off multi-run homer I expect are slim.. be surprised if they even win the game. But would be nice if they did.. by 2.

I see St. Louis just blew a 9th inning lead as well, giving up 2 in Bot9 to lose 6-5 to Pittsburgh..

What the hell happened to all the closers today.. can't depend on anything nowadays....

 

yes was like a very bad dream!!!.....i just can`t belive the braves thing!!!and cinci still winning???unbeliavable!!!

what about dodgers tonight???

 
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Posted: #352
Will be Live Betting the Dodgers game. I usually take the biggest +$ on the board and wager pre-game, then play the other side if an opportunity comes up.

Looks like heavy money on the Dodgers tonight for some reason.. don't really understand it, Kuroda is just coming back from the DL, and the Padres have been playing great. SD ML +190 is the starting wager.

Best case scenario is SD gets an early 1-0, 2-0 lead and then can take LA to come back at +money which guarantees a winner.

Looking at the per inning wagers as well. Trying to decide on SD to win, Tie, or LA to win.

+400 for SD to win the 1st inning.. that's pretty hard not to take!

Last week I chased the Tie for Atlanta/Philly, and made $50 after 2 innings.

I'm just waking up here tho.. so gotta clear the cobwebs before gametime.

Cheers
 
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Posted: #353
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

Will be Live Betting the Dodgers game. I usually take the biggest +$ on the board and wager pre-game, then play the other side if an opportunity comes up.

Looks like heavy money on the Dodgers tonight for some reason.. don't really understand it, Kuroda is just coming back from the DL, and the Padres have been playing great. SD ML +190 is the starting wager.

Best case scenario is SD gets an early 1-0, 2-0 lead and then can take LA to come back at +money which guarantees a winner.

Looking at the per inning wagers as well. Trying to decide on SD to win, Tie, or LA to win.

+400 for SD to win the 1st inning.. that's pretty hard not to take!

Last week I chased the Tie for Atlanta/Philly, and made $50 after 2 innings.

I'm just waking up here tho.. so gotta clear the cobwebs before gametime.

Cheers

hears great for the first inning!!and is "cheap&chic"lol!!....i guess the dodgers have the money cause in general the people just want to watch the game with some "salsa on the tacos"!!they just know tht dodgers are in first place in division ....don`t u think??any way i like L.A. to win cause i think kuroda will make good (have to)they are in home and on "ESPN".....well maybe i just don`t like padres and i want"some salsa on the tacos"lol

 

 
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Posted: #354
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

Will be Live Betting the Dodgers game. I usually take the biggest +$ on the board and wager pre-game, then play the other side if an opportunity comes up.

Looks like heavy money on the Dodgers tonight for some reason.. don't really understand it, Kuroda is just coming back from the DL, and the Padres have been playing great. SD ML +190 is the starting wager.

Best case scenario is SD gets an early 1-0, 2-0 lead and then can take LA to come back at +money which guarantees a winner.

Looking at the per inning wagers as well. Trying to decide on SD to win, Tie, or LA to win.

+400 for SD to win the 1st inning.. that's pretty hard not to take!

Last week I chased the Tie for Atlanta/Philly, and made $50 after 2 innings.

I'm just waking up here tho.. so gotta clear the cobwebs before gametime.

Cheers

padres 1-0 so far in first inning

 
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Posted: #355
Well that worked nicely.. a +$100 1st inning ($25 wager).

Gonna lay off the 2nd inning. Padres take the lead and the Dodgers ML is still -180 LoL
 
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Posted: #356
OK, well thought about letting it right with the Padres, but gonna stick to the game plan. Just got the Dodgers at +200 to win now.

So worst case scenario, break even on the game. Best case, win +3 Units.

Not counting the +$100 all ready made from that 1st inning 

Done with the Live wagering for this game now, goal has been accomplished (to finish +$).  See you all tomorrow.


 
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Posted: #357
Click on the Red Title to access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well as each individual month.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Ended the weekend on a high note, cashing almost $200 Live Wagering the Padre/Dodger game last night. Finished the week down -4.69 Units, a solid recovery considering I was down over -15 Units after Friday night.
A big -9 Unit loss last Monday, August 31st, really ate into the nice profit from the month. Still, August finished up +27.73 Units, marking the 4th straight month of +$$.

It's a big holiday afternoon with lots of MLB and the Final Round of the Deutsche Bank Championship. Will tread carefully Live Wagering there today, but could be lots of value there with so many golfers near the top of the leaderboard. Hopefully the week will start much better than last!

This week I am going to be trying extremely hard to just play my System plays. The adrenalin from football last week really cost me some valuable Units, and I can't be doing that crap. Have to stick with what has taken me this far.
Hopefully I can spend the down time in between games continuing to perfect my NHL System. Looking forward to seeing how it will perform, it's looking pretty good so far.





KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - SEPTEMBER 7TH, 2009


RUNLINE BLITZ

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES   game1
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS   game1


HFOUDL

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS   game1 of 3


TOP 5 HOME TEAM

NEW YORK YANKEES   (game1 of 4)  
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS   (game1 of 3)
COLORADO ROCKIES   (game1 of 4)
     juice alert, play rl -1.5







Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 
 
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Posted: #358
Yeah man - too...........
Different though
I'm following a successful NBA sys that needs balls from last year
Now its onto NCAAFB
Its about taking ML's which are nice and** JUICY**
Got me a few big wins which are stressful enough to begin with
But I lost all those winnings on some busllshit spreads I took too

Well its a new week  - and the youngbucks are about to hit the books.......

And so are we but in a different way........ Hahaha.
Go get'em tiger..........

 
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Posted: #359
PITCHING CHANGE

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES --

OUT  J.A.Happ

--

IN  Jamie Moyer


This change still provides great value at +120, and the numbers work out to be about the same for the Houston offense.

Wager has been placed on PHILADELPHIA RL
 
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Posted: #360
looking forward to seeing your NHL system in action....bol with that...
 
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Posted: #361
I absolutely hate run lines.  I know that they have saved me by minimizing losses multiple times, but I still hate em.  I wonder if it really makes much difference over the long hall.
 
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Posted: #362
Quote Originally Posted by SUPEREAGLE43:

I absolutely hate run lines.  I know that they have saved me by minimizing losses multiple times, but I still hate em.  I wonder if it really makes much difference over the long hall.


RL wagers definitely have their spirit-crushing moments that's for sure.. I.E. Colorado's 1 run win last night.

But RL plays are essential to a profitable season I believe as it's hard to swallow laying over -200 on a game which should be a blowout, but sometimes doesn't even win outright. Laying -EV to -125 makes it a lot easier to sleep at night if you happen to lose.

And when you can find value is a game where the ML's almost even, but get the RL at like +160, +170, then those are dream come true nights when they hit.

Just take a look at sports_Networks RL picks all season. Without those plays, and the strong Unit attachment associated with them, his Overall numbers would be significantly less. I'm sure he would place extreme value in RL plays.

Even me, myself, have profited very nicely off a successful season cappin' RL games - +60 Units .. +$1900

RL games will continue to be a main ingredient in my seasonal plays, including a PL (puckline) System for the NHL.

Cuz overall they just continue to produce value.. even tho the occasional loss leaves you sick to your stomach !


Cheers 
 
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Posted: #363
Click on the Red Title to access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well as each individual month.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Off to a beautiful start this week, hitting for +8 Units last night! Steve Stricker came through in the Final Round of the Deutsche Bank Championship to hit my Future of Stricker to finish Top3 at the beginning of the Tourney for +400. I didn't have that posted here cuz it was a last minute decision and no one would have been able to place a wager on it in time anyway. Also hit the Live Wagering taking Stricker to Win around the 14th hole for +110.
MLB was 4-2 yesterday, also, for a great start. Unit size had been raised to $50 now, I feel the bankroll is in a spot where this is a good decision. I am also confident in my September cappin' ability, whereas many are not. I actually find this time of year easier, for various reasons.
Let's hope to continue a hot week here, and really boost this thing up before NFL and NHL roll around!





KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - SEPTEMBER 8TH, 2009


RUNLINE BLITZ

CLEVELAND INDIANS   game2   +1.5     game1 of double header
NEW YORK YANKEES
DETROIT TIGERS
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS


to clarify the above play on the indians for those who are easily confused.. game2 is listed because of the philadelhpia loss last night, so it is game2 of the system play meaning more has been wagered. it is game 1 of the double header.
this is a play it by inning type of night. the above late plays may, or may not, all be played, due to the over-lapping of start times. please refer to the spreadsheet for the up-to-minute latest decision on plays


HFOUDL

NO PLAYS - all chases cleared


TOP 5 HOME TEAM

COLORADO ROCKIES   (game2 of 4)
     juice alert, play rl -1.5
BOSTON RED SOX   (game 1 of 2)     2 UNIT PLAY
     juice alert, play rl -1.5   
     top5 home team vs. bot5 road team, double unit play


see spreadsheet for further details on boston pick


SPOT PLAYS

Parley
Serena Williams   -625
Rafael Nadal   -200

Parley
Serena Williams   -625
Detroit Tigers   -160






Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 
 
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Posted: #364
Hey Krett, looks like they made a pitching change in the SF Giants game..Lincecum is not starting.
 
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Posted: #365
Quote Originally Posted by IceAge:

Hey Krett, looks like they made a pitching change in the SF Giants game..Lincecum is not starting.


HaHa, good eye.

I was just coming here to post that, since my book just made the change. I will have to do some homework and see what I can find on this Bumgarnr guy, but it will probably result in a "no play". Haven't heard why the change yet, but I can imagine the Giants may be pretty devastated if it's something serious, and the Padres will probably be licking their chops now.

Big 2-out, 2-run double by Brantley there for Cleveland to eare a 5-0 deficit. All tied up now. Making a standard 1 Unit play on the Yankees now.
 
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Posted: #366
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:



RL wagers definitely have their spirit-crushing moments that's for sure.. I.E. Colorado's 1 run win last night.

But RL plays are essential to a profitable season I believe as it's hard to swallow laying over -200 on a game which should be a blowout, but sometimes doesn't even win outright. Laying -EV to -125 makes it a lot easier to sleep at night if you happen to lose.

And when you can find value is a game where the ML's almost even, but get the RL at like +160, +170, then those are dream come true nights when they hit.

Just take a look at sports_Networks RL picks all season. Without those plays, and the strong Unit attachment associated with them, his Overall numbers would be significantly less. I'm sure he would place extreme value in RL plays.

Even me, myself, have profited very nicely off a successful season cappin' RL games - +60 Units .. +$1900

RL games will continue to be a main ingredient in my seasonal plays, including a PL (puckline) System for the NHL.

Cuz overall they just continue to produce value.. even tho the occasional loss leaves you sick to your stomach !


Cheers 


Altho the RL's have been amazing this season, and definitely should be included.. maybe it's time to shut them down for the final few weeks of the season.

Had the Indians cover until they bring in a scrub pitcher with a 9+ ERA in the 9th.. had the Yankees cover until late.. Tigers just gave up the damn lead, let alone just tryin to hang on for the win.

Going to be in a HUGE hole from the RL plays after tonight.. not sure if I will try to recover these losses or just abandon the RL Blitz for the remainder of the season.

Nice job by the Red Sox at least.
 
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Posted: #367
Well it wasn't a winning night, but it wasn't nearly as bad as it could have been. Big run by the Rockies in the bottom of the 8th to secure that 3-1 win. Hit the tennis parley, but lost the Williams/Tigers one so broke even there. Down about 6 Units tonight, but still up about 2 Units for the week so far. No qualifying plays tomorrow on any of the Systems, so will decide on what I am doing on the RunLine games.
I think I will probably play them small until I recover the current loss, unless I find a hidden gem. Looking forward to NFL this weekend. New System will be up and running by then.

Cheers 
 
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Posted: #368
If anyone happens to notice my spreadsheet today for the RunLine Blitz.. you will see what kind of day/night I had.. and what kind of month it has been there so far..

So forgive me if I'm not around for awhile.. I think I need to get myself out of this dream world and snap back into reality.

Sorry to anyone who actually played the picks the past couple of days.
 
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Posted: #369
Quote Originally Posted by MontanaMax:


Obviously then you would of seen what his records are and then you can decide whether if Kreature knows what he's doing or if he's  just some punk on a hot streak like many around here


Officially now "punk" status ..

Hot Streak over.
 
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Posted: #370
September can be very challenging capping baseball.  It might be time to concentrate on football.  Don't dwell on the last couple of nights; think about what you've accomplished in the past 4 months.  Can you cap baseball?  I'd say the results speak for themselves.  Do you realize how hard it is to win 100 units in 4 months?
 
One observation: without going back and checking all of your picks, it seems to me that when you note that you're upping the dollars per unit, it's right after an extended hot streak.  Then, there's the inevitable winning percentage correction to the mean, only at a higher $ per unit loss.  Again, I haven't checked this out, so I might be wrong on that.  Just my two cents.
 
If you decide to pull the plug on baseball, it's been a great summer.  I'm looking forward to next year, and I'm also looking forward to your NHL picks.
 
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Posted: #371
A little bit of relief 2nite.. 1st experience Live Wagering NFL went very well, altho Hines Ward tried to give me a heart attack there..

+$200 for the Steelers win.. really surprised they allowed the wagering to go right up to the last second there. When Tennessee punted the ball back to the Pittsburgh 40 at the end of the 4th it was still open, and then after Ben completed the 1st pass to mid-field it was still open and that's when I hit Pitt for the 2nd time.

Releases a bit of the sting from yesterday..

Man, was like Xmas Eve around here today, I was so excited for football!  Can't wait for Sunday, it's gonna be AWE-SOME LoL

Got my top picks all ready 2 roll!!

Oh P.S.. baseball still sucks    glad i didn't wager on anything today.
 
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Posted: #372
Who were you LIVE with

cause I couldnt get a line at mine ????????????
 
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Posted: #373
Quote Originally Posted by chicano1:

Who were you LIVE with

cause I couldnt get a line at mine ????????????


Intertops

It's where I do all my Live Wagering

They do ESPN Sunday Night Baseball, the final round of Golf Tournaments on Sundays, Finals of Tennis Majors, Thursday, Sunday & Monday Night Football, and a TON of daily soccer games.


 
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Posted: #374
Click on the Red Title to access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well as each individual month.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
These were the plays for the Top 5 Home Team System this weekend.. All 5 teams are at home, but 1 is filtered out. There are 2 Double Unit plays this weekend. These plays have been amazing this season, going 13-0 with a 13-2 individual games record (11-2 game1, 2-0 game2).




KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - SEPTEMBER 11TH, 2009


HFOUDL

NO QUALIFYING PLAYS


TOP 5 HOME TEAM

NEW YORK YANKEES   (game1 of 3)     2 UNIT PLAY
     juice alert, play rl -1.5
     top5 home team vs. bot5 road team, double unit play

BOSTON RED SOX   (game 1 of 3)

DETROIT TIGERS   (game1 of 4)     2 UNIT PLAY
     top5 home team vs. bot5 road team, double unit play 

TEXAS RANGERS   (game1 of 3)
     juice alert, play rl -1.5 





Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 
 
 
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Posted: #375

good luck today buddy... 2 x GAME C on NYY and double units on DET? and game B tex?

hope they come through for you

gmsi

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