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Kreatture's Playbook

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Posted: #151
Kreatture;
 
I saw that you planned to play Atl on the runline today.  Since it's an afternoon game, do you foresee playing a night or West Coast game as well?  I like Det on the RL (again!), but wanted to see your opinion first.
 
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Posted: #152
Quote Originally Posted by Budman717:

Kreatture;
 
I saw that you planned to play Atl on the runline today.  Since it's an afternoon game, do you foresee playing a night or West Coast game as well?  I like Det on the RL (again!), but wanted to see your opinion first.


Yes, there definitely will be a play tonight. It will completely depend on how the Braves game goes. The Braves are the play for max recovery this afternoon. If this does not win, then Recovery Process will be initiated and there will be multiple games tonight on split lines. If Atlanta wins, there will be a 7pm et play, then possibly a West coast play after that.

I do have a couple of games in mind for tonight, but decision will not be until closer to game time.

Best of Luck today 
 
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Posted: #153
Click on the Red Title to access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well as each individual month.
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Lighter day on the schedule today, but maybe no bigger game than the early one. Taking a shot on Tommy Hanson pitching in front of family and friends in a road "home" game for himself. Hopefully the Atl bats remain hot from last night.



KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 5TH, 2009


RUNLINE BLITZ

ATLANTA BRAVES   +120   game4


HFOUDL

NO PLAYS


TOP 5 HOME TEAM

NO PLAYS - all chases cleared til Thursday


FADING WASHINGTON NATIONALS

FLORIDA MARLINS  (game2 of 3)  SERIES CHASE


TAKE FROM POOR, GIVE TO RICH

Chase 1 - to win/lose 1 game this week

RICH LA ANGELS   (vs. chi. white sox)   game2
RICH BOSTON   (vs. tampa bay)   game2


SPOT PLAYS

TEXAS RANGERS   (game3 of 4)   SERIES CHASE


Starting to lose my faith in the Rangers are contenders down the stretch. Veteran Padilla goes against a rookie to stop the bleeding today. Rangers remain a play, but if they don't get the job done tonight, this team is in trouble.



Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 
 
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Posted: #154
Click on the Red Title to access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well as each individual month.
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Official game time is 7:10et, still a few minutes left to get this in..


KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 5TH, 2009


LOCKED IN

RUNLINE BLITZ

CHICAGO CUBS   -115   game1




Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 
 
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Posted: #155
Click on the Red Title to access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well as each individual month.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Big clear by Atlanta yesterday to start the day, followed by a miserable evening. Going 0-5 in the night games was not really what I had in mind. Back at it today, with some big series finales. I have done the homework, studied the match-ups, and like what I see. All plays are for Max Recovery.




KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 6TH, 2009


RUNLINE BLITZ

NO PLAYS


HFOUDL

SAN DIEGO PADRES   (game1 of 4)


TOP 5 HOME TEAM

NY YANKEES   (game1 of 4)


FADING WASHINGTON NATIONALS

FLORIDA MARLINS  (game3 of 3)  SERIES CHASE


TAKE FROM POOR, GIVE TO RICH

Chase 1 - to win/lose 1 game this week

RICH LA ANGELS   (vs. chi. white sox)   game3
RICH BOSTON   (vs. ny yankees)   game3


SPOT PLAYS

TEXAS RANGERS   (game4 of 4)   SERIES CHASE





Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 
 
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Posted: #156
You have Boston over the Yankees despite the latter leading the division?
 
I have set up a version of the rich/poor on the RL and don't play a series when members of the group play each other. 
 
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Posted: #157
He already started his chase w/ Boston, so now he has to finish it.
 
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Posted: #158
Quote Originally Posted by RaleighDevil:

You have Boston over the Yankees despite the latter leading the division?
 
I have set up a version of the rich/poor on the RL and don't play a series when members of the group play each other. 


Division Leaders have nothing to do with that System.. Boston was a continued Chase for the week as they had yet to win 1 game this week.
Match-ups where 2 play-on or 2 play-against teams are vs. each other should be quite the opposite of a "no play", in my opinion. Very rarely during a series of 2 top teams will a sweep occur (Boston did it twice to NY I know). You are guaranteed to win a Unit for Game1, which would win that Chase for the week. You then carry on the other Chase as a Game2 and will probably win that over the next couple of games. That nets you +2 Units, instead of 0.
That is how I look at those opportunities at least, and hope to have some over the next few weeks. I hear what you say tho, about passing on them.

Your adaptation of the Rich/Poor System on the RL is interesting. How exactly are you setting it up, and have the results been what you were hoping for?
 
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Posted: #159
Quote Originally Posted by nolemonasses:

He already started his chase w/ Boston, so now he has to finish it.


Yes, this is true. The spreadsheets have been updated.
Wagering on Boston has been halted for the rest of this week, but the Wins and Losses for them will still be kept for tracking purposes.

The plan now is to split the money lost on Boston so far (approx. -5 units) over a number of series this weekend. I am simply not interested in wagering on that series right now. The pitching match-ups this weekend are all too even and either team could win.
There are better spots this weekend to recover those Units.


Cheers 

 
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Posted: #160
Embarrassing loss for Florida today, heads should roll there.
Or does no one really care about that team anymore, their owners included..

Huge win by the Texas Rangers today in Game 4 of that Chase. So as it turned out, I made the exact same amount as if I had wagered on Oakland in Game1 of that series, +1 Unit. It just took a little longer to get that Unit this time 

Nice job by the Angels today as well, really was hoping to clear that one up before the weekend.

Boston, well.. Boston never really stood a chance tonight did they. I don't think anyone was too surprised by the result of Smoltz and the slumping Red Sox. The line was sooooo low tho (+190) that it was completely worth the little risk to clear that chase. Alternate plans have now been made for that series.

And the big finale of the evening was by the red hot San Diego Padres. Not only did they win in Game1 of the hfoudl System, but I also recovered over 6 Units on the Rich/Poor page by playing Clayton Richard 1st 5 and SD for the game on top of the hfoudl wager (full explanation found on the Rich/Poor System page). I really like this Richard kid. He should do really well in the National League and in that pitcher's haven known as PETCO.

So yes, it was a tough start to the day seeing the Fading Washington Nationals System suffer its 1st Chase loss of the season, but with big wins by Texas, LA, and San Diego it was still a +$260 day.


A couple of new plays of the Top 5 Home Team page starts (and preferably ends!) Friday evening, and a couple of new plays on the HFOUDL page as well (altho I am passing on one, and doubling up on the other).
An interesting note has been added to the Fading Washington Nationals page, as that System has now been frozen in order to initiate a Situational Analysis. A SWOT Analysis will be conducted there over the weekend.
And the RunLine Blitz will be back in action with an array of plays. It looks like there will be 3 or 4 great plays there on Friday. There will probably be 2 different lines started for this. This page has not been updated with the plays yet.

So it should be an eventful weekend, and hopefully a profitable one! I look forward to the challenge!


Cheers 


 
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Posted: #161
Good to have you back after not hearing from you yesterday.
I was worried that the Nationals crushed your bankroll and spirit.
Florida absolutely stinks. I wasn't in that series, but I can't believe that shit. How many late game comebacks can happen this week? No lead is ever safe I guess. You just don't expect it to come from the Nats...twice in ine series.
Go get'm tonight casanova. How'r the ladies treating ya?
 
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Posted: #162
I'll get back to you today with an explanation. I have to go see a dog about a man.
 
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Posted: #163
Raleigh: ?   
 
Is that a movie quote?
 
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Posted: #164
It's just an expression you might hear growing up. I will write something about the RL system in a few hours. The dog was not home. 
 
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Posted: #165
Quote Originally Posted by nolemonasses:

Good to have you back after not hearing from you yesterday.
I was worried that the Nationals crushed your bankroll and spirit.
Florida absolutely stinks. I wasn't in that series, but I can't believe that shit. How many late game comebacks can happen this week? No lead is ever safe I guess. You just don't expect it to come from the Nats...twice in ine series.
Go get'm tonight casanova. How'r the ladies treating ya?




Been too busy for the ladies, HaHa. The one thing I love more than women is money, so focus has been there this week.
I believe next week it will be time again to make some appearances.

Man, this is shaping up to be a huge night, I can't believe this board! Tell me it isn't too good to be true?!?!

Playbook will be posted shortly, with a lot of Spot Plays tonight.
 
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Posted: #166
kreatture, saw your Rl Blitz on the spreadsheet. Check the Toronto game, I think there was a pitching change for Romero. Unless the change was to Romero. Saw something about that in a nother thread, but can't remember.
 
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Posted: #167
Yes, the change is from Brent Cecil TO Ricky Romero, which is why this is now a play.

Damn, I am currently working in that spreadsheet as I type. It updates fast, sweet LoL
 
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Posted: #168
When I saw your chase system, I looked at the scores for some of the best and worst teams. I found at most two instances where a team "lost" six in a row on the RL. In most of those cases, it was when one of the opponents was in the same grouping. Therefore, the first rule was that the Yankees wouldn't go against the Angels, etc. With the bad teams, I just looked at Pittsburgh again and it had two streaks wher it didn't lose by two runs. Guess what? Both involved other bad teams. So, there are no plays within the groups.
 
Then you have to decide who belongs in each group. We are talking about not only how good a team is but also how good the competition is or has been.
 
Here were the "starting lineueps beginning last Thursday. 
 
AL: Anaheim, Boston, NYY and TB. Cleveland, KC and Oakland.
NL: LAD and Phil. Arizona Pittsburgh, SD and Wash.    
 
I am not playing this as a classic chase. I started betting th e minimum amount, then added a bit after a loss. One advantage of the RL is that you can have a losing record and still win money. Sometimes I have to play the reverse RL, but I have hit some big winners.
 
How's it going after eight days? The bad news is that Washington and Oakland picked this time to start playing better, so I am in the hole with the bad teams. The good news is that the other group is performing very well. As of today, I'm up about $60 beginning with $5 bets, and remember that I'm not chasing in the purest sense. The longest has been three games.
 
Today I decided to alter the teams. Looking at the MLB RPI, I noticed that Oakland is rated better than its record. Cincy fares worse. Notice that I didn't add Baltimore in the beginning because I really wasn't sure how bad that team was considering it plays in the same division as three good teams. But the O's are in the mix today in place of Billy Beane's crowd. I also added Texas but the Rangers have a series with the Angels, so that's a no-play.
 
Anyway, this is just for a bit of fun. If I get down to the end of a chase, I'll make some kind of adjustment ... or put on my JM cap and say I tweaked the system but forgot to tell you.
 
Any comments on what teams belong or don't belong are welcome.  
 
 
 
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Posted: #169
Cool, glad you got it they way u want it.
 
Good luck tonight bro. I'm with u on the Top 5 home team series tonight. Still skipping out on the RL Blitz. Too many systems for me to chase right now with WNBA and MLB sweep-chase.
 
Speakin' of which, how come you don't do a sweep series? 29-0 so far this year if you use the RPI filter.
 
 
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Posted: #170
Excellent Raleigh, thanks for sharing. I will definitely take a look closely at what you said later tonight after the games when I have more time.
The System I created is just a basic one which I thought would work pretty good, but I will always take into consideration chances to make it better. The RunLine may be a nice change to make, it would certainly lower the juice which is always good.

Cheers 
 
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Posted: #171
Click on the Red Title to access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well as each individual month.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Been a decent week so far, even with the Florida series loss. Hopefully will emerge from the weekend on the right side of the coin.



KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 7TH, 2009


RUNLINE BLITZ

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS   -135   game2
TORONTO BLUE JAYS   -110   line2  game1
CHICAGO WHITE SOX   -110
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS   -145


HFOUDL

TORONTO BLUE JAYS   (game1 of 3)

I overlooked a filter here not realizing Toronto was coming off just a 2-game series, and had all ready locked them in. So rollin' with it. Colorado is the actual only real play if you followed the System as is. Last night when I was doing this up, I had decided to pass on Colorado and double up on Toronto. I will just enjoy the bonus Units here I guess.


TOP 5 HOME TEAM

DETROIT TIGERS   (game1 of 3)
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS   (game1 of 3)


FADING WASHINGTON NATIONALS

System has been frozen to initiate a Situation Analysis. A SWOT Analysis will be conducted


TAKE FROM POOR, GIVE TO RICH

Chase 1 - to win/lose 1 game this week

RICH BOSTON   (vs. ny yankees)   game4

This play has now been halted for wagering purposes, but will continue to be tracked for System tracking. More explanation can be found on the spreadsheet on the Boston line.


SPOT PLAYS

I am doing a number of parley combos tonight, reducing the juice on the heavy favs.

Parley #1

1ST 5 - ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
1ST 5 - TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Parley #2

1ST 5 - ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
1ST 5 - SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Parley #3

1ST 5 - ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
1ST 5 - TORONTO BLUE JAYS
1ST 5 - CHICAGO WHITE SOX
1ST 5 - SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Parley #4

ML - ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
ML - TORONTO BLUE JAYS
ML - CHICAGO WHITE SOX
ML - SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Parley #5

RL - ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
RL - TORONTO BLUE JAYS
RL - CHICAGO WHITE SOX
RL - SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS


These are all very small plays. Who knows, maybe tonight will one of those nights where everything hits.





Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 
 
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Posted: #172
 GL on parlay
 
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Posted: #173
 
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Posted: #174
Well I am now convinced some of these games are bought off.. Chris Carpenter 10-1 2.06 vs. Pirates and is getting absolutely lit up by a AAA lineup. Yeah right..

Shitty start to the night. Come on Cards offense..
 
 
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Posted: #175
Wow.. what an utter mess tonight. Complete collapses across the board. I am scared to look at my account to see how much I am down tonight..

It seems to me that everyone seems to be struggling lately, as a lot of Systems have had some losses the past week or so. Even Sports Network has had a couple of bad nights this week, which is extremely rare.
This does not make me feel any better tho..

I am really getting sick of 8th and 9th inning collapses.. so I try some 5 inning games tonight and get blown out of the water there as well.. *sigh*

This daily grind is hard.. as I expected.. but even harder lately, just can't get over that hump into the next level.

Maybe I need to work harder? Or am I working too hard..? Maybe I am subconsciously trying to force some issues, and need to just take a step back.

Does anyone else feel like this sometimes?? Or am I just crazy.
What do you do when things aren't going well?
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