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MLB system releases...

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Posted: #1376
                                    
                                        Tuesday, July 21st, 2009
 
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Posted: #1377
 
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Posted: #1378
MLB system releases Tuesday 07/21/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
Nationals-122  5innings
Pirates+124  5innings
Tigers-144  5innings
Yankees-165  5innings
 
RedSox+138 RL
Rays+162 RL
Cubs+128 ML
 
STL/HOU  OVER 8.5
ARI/COL  UNDER 9.5
CLE/TOR  OVER 8.5
SEA/DET  OVER 9
 
elevenPACformulated
advantage ratio: 8/11  72.7%
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1379
 
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Posted: #1380
Here are some numbers for comparison only.
LAA Vs KC 1st game 5:10 start 7/21/09
6 Innings
   RP 
 
1.138
5.69
6.83


BsR
0.522
2.09
1.57


BsR
0.213
6 Innings
   RP 
   Brian Fuentes*
0.458
2.29
2.75

BsR
0.598
2.39
1.79

BsR
0.231
 
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Posted: #1381
   That apparently dose not work. I'll try something else.
 
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Posted: #1382
DET RL (Porcello has close to a month rest and owned SEA earlier in season)
HOU RL (Pujols is 3 for 20 against Rodriguez and thats STL only offense)
BOS RL(Becket is close to unstoppable)
TB RL(Niemann is pitching lights out and Richard... well frankly isnt)
 
LAA ML (second game) (Chen is awful)
SF ML (Great value at +185 and Sadowski has pitched better then Lowe past 3 games)
WAS ML(WAS rocks Perez and Lannon does well against NYM)
 
CLE/TOR O 8.5 (TOR very good against Lee expect to see CLE bullpen which is the worst in the league)
COL/ARI O(dont know the O/U yet but doesnt matter both pitchers fair horrible against opposing teams)
 
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Posted: #1383
ACortazz...many of the same plays on my board...

BOS RL, DET RL are the best of the bunch IMHO...

Like WAS ML as well...GL


 
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Posted: #1384
i think i may take the under in the HOU game instead iof the RL i feel like its going be like 3-2 or something close to that
 
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Posted: #1385
Hey I know the games just started and you may think I am crazy, but I want to place only the score of tonights game, and if my theory does work, then I will share with you the exact formula, since I have had two correct picks while trying it out, but no bets on them
 
Cinn 4.0468  LAD  3.1765
TBAY 2.8634  CHWS  7.8507
METS  9.0667  WASHINGTON 12.465
CUBS 4.5376  PHIL 2.762
 
 
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Posted: #1386
Question for anyone in the thread:
Is the Pitcher BsR formula used to calculate only how many runs ALLOWED?
And if so, should you do the following to calculate runs SCORED (if BsR has low/no data on opposing team's pitcher):
This is an example from a while back:
NY YANKEES
Have scored 236 runs at home in 41 games,  5.756 runs per game, 0.639 runs per inning, 3.195 for 1st 5 innings.

Thanks for the help in advance.
-Wild.


 
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Posted: #1387
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]
MLB system releases Tuesday 07/21/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
Nationals-122  5innings...win
Pirates+124  5innings...loss
Tigers-144  5innings...win
Yankees-165  5innings...win
 
RedSox+138 RL...loss
Rays+162 RL...loss
Cubs+128 ML...loss
 
STL/HOU  OVER 8.5...win
ARI/COL  UNDER 9.5...loss
CLE/TOR  OVER 8.5...loss
SEA/DET  OVER 9...win
 
elevenPACformulated
advantage ratio: 8/11  72.7%
 
SN
 
 
FINAL RESULTS:
5-6
units: -5.8
 
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Posted: #1388
[Quote: Originally Posted by acortazz]
DET RL (Porcello has close to a month rest and owned SEA earlier in season) WIN
HOU RL (Pujols is 3 for 20 against Rodriguez and thats STL only offense) WIN
BOS RL(Becket is close to unstoppable) LOSS
TB RL(Niemann is pitching lights out and Richard... well frankly isnt) LOSS
 
LAA ML (second game) (Chen is awful) WIN
SF ML (Great value at +185 and Sadowski has pitched better then Lowe past 3 games) LOSS
WAS ML(WAS rocks Perez and Lannon does well against NYM)WIN
 
CLE/TOR O 8.5 (TOR very good against Lee expect to see CLE bullpen which is the worst in the league) LOSS
COL/ARI O(dont know the O/U yet but doesnt matter both pitchers fair horrible against opposing teams) WIN
 
 
FINAL RESULTS (on pre-game assessments)
5-4
units:+6
 
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Posted: #1389

[Quote: Originally Posted by MeMyselfandEye] ACortazz...many of the same plays on my board...

BOS RL,(loss)  DET RL(win)  are the best of the bunch IMHO...

 WAS ML(win)  as well...GL


 
FINAL RESULTS (on strong leans)
2-1
units: +6
 
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Posted: #1390
                            Wed, July 22nd, 2009
 
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Posted: #1391
MLB system releases Wed,07/22/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
BlueJays+138 RL
Rockies+118 RL
 
Cubs-112 ML
Reds+190 ML
Tigers+122 ML
Royals+115 ML
RedSox-120 ML
 
Giants+120  5innings (Lincecum)
Cardinals-110  5innings (Carpenter)
 
MIL/PIT  OVER 9
NYM/WAS  OVER 9
FLA/SD  OVER 7.5
CLE/TOR  OVER 9
BOS/TEX  OVER 9
 
 
fourteenPACformulated
projected ratio: 11/14  78.5%
 
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Posted: #1392
come on SN you know my picks are both leans and pregame assesments, i was just using the reasons why the leans were so strong. BOL today
 
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Posted: #1393
Quote Originally Posted by WiLdCaRd88:

Question for anyone in the thread:
Is the Pitcher BsR formula used to calculate only how many runs ALLOWED?
And if so, should you do the following to calculate runs SCORED (if BsR has low/no data on opposing team's pitcher):
This is an example from a while back:
NY YANKEES
Have scored 236 runs at home in 41 games,  5.756 runs per game, 0.639 runs per inning, 3.195 for 1st 5 innings.

Thanks for the help in advance.
-Wild.




Yes - it used to figure out how many runs a pitcher (or pitching staff as I use it) will allow  in a game. Home or Away Stats &..Season Stats only for me.  It gives a good indication of the state of a pitcher or pitchers...Or you can use the last 5 appearances if you wish......the only issue I see with it is it does not take into account the other teams line-up in any way.
 
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Posted: #1394
Quote Originally Posted by acortazz:

come on SN you know my picks are both leans and pregame assesments, i was just using the reasons why the leans were so strong. BOL today

As I have indicated so..Applying the BR/RC formula on your leans, and assessments, brings value to the thread, and judgement on your consistency of being accurate..attaching units onto the final results, brings the 'value' of your assessments/leans to the forefront of discussion..When the same concept is shared by group particapation, the strength of the 'snowball' effect takes shape, and breeds continued success....SN

 
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Posted: #1395
ML ML 6 units
CHC ML 4 units
 
COL RL 8 units
 
FLA ML parlayed with NYY RL  2 units
 
FLA/SD O 7.5 2 units
 
here we are for the early games lets make money BOL
 
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Posted: #1396
CHC vs MOYERBsR 1st 5 InningsCHC vs MOYERBsR 9 InningsCHC vs PHI PITCHINGPitching BsR -Game
PHI vs ZAMBRANOBsR 1st 5 InningsPHI vs ZAMBRANOBsR 9 InningsPHI vs CHC PITCHINGPitching BsR -Game
7 Out of 9
2.712
7 Out of 9
5.376
 
6.845

7 Out of 9 
1.698
7 Out of 9 
3.359
 
3.685
 
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Posted: #1397
Lean is on CHC ML -110 for the 1st early one.

Agree with Acortazz
 
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Posted: #1398

2.533
7 Out of 9
4.046
 
3.614
7 Out of 9 
4.953
7 Out of 9 
8.167
 
4.797
 
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Posted: #1399
Those numbers above are for ARI at COL....strong lean on COL RL +106   (8.2 vs 4.0)...


 
 
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Posted: #1400
Early Leans for MME

CHC ML                -110      4 Units

COL RL                +106      8 Units

MIN/OAK OVER 9 +117      2 Units

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