MLB system releases...

Quote Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:

Quote Originally Posted by BLACKEN1772:


Great Questions Surfer. This thread takes a positive turn as we sit at the table and discuss Sabermetrics applied to MLB handicapping.
 First understand these are my opinions not gospel and the details most probably differ from other perspectives. Therefore I speak in more general terms.
 Your statement "I didn't do anything quantitative to determine the strength of the lean." tells me You already know there is more work to be done. Use your Br/Rc leans as a filter, as a base qualification. Your understanding of of Br/Rc has given you the knowledge and understanding that it is based on historical events. The result is a more accurate account than traditional statistical means of handicapping. The lean is based on derived scores not necessarily probable scores. This is where personal choice and experience enters into creating a form in order to create a more accurate score. I.E. recent player performance, weather, etc. Basic handicapping.
 Apply Pythagorean expectation ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation ) This will give you your expected probability of outcome.
 This this can be converted to a ML by this online tool:

https://www.usagambler.net/MoneyLineConverter.aspx

or if you want to calculate on your own simply apply;

For favorites:    (expected win % / (1 - expected win %))*100
I.E.    (.55 / (1-.55))*100  = 122 or (-122)

For Dogs: ((1-expected win %) / expected win %)*100
I.E.    ((1-0.45) / 0.45)*100  =  122

NOTICE that this is a no vig line.


Calculating Edge is not any harder but would take up much more space. Edge comes from the $ amount you would get by winning compared to the odds you lay. 
Serious individuals interested in gaining insight and knowledge are welcome to PM me for details. - BLKN

Quote Originally Posted by BillWag27:

Interesting information regarding ballparks.

https://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primate_studies/discussion/home_runs_and_ballparks/

Quote Originally Posted by BLACKEN1772:



Bw27 - Good article thanks. Long time, no post.

Quote Originally Posted by BLACKEN1772:

.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/sabermetrics-in-the-mainstream

As Per SN Request.  Very good sight! - BLKN

Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network: