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MLB Underdog Systems - Anyone want to track this for the season?

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Posted: #401
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Thursday 5/23/13 plays:

Dog EFF Score

YTD 11-13, +.44 units

BAL +120 ML

MIN +165 ML

Dog EFF/RRL

YTD 33-31, +18.62 units

All 2 units

<BAL +120 ML | BAL [-1.5] +192 RRL>RISK 2u WIN 3.84u

CLE +130 ML

System Plays

YTD 117-137, +8.5 units

BAL +120 ML

CLE +130 ML

 

 

 
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Posted: #402

[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]

Dog EFF/RRL results: (1-1) 5/24/13

BAL [-1.5] +192 RRL  LOSS

CLE [-1.5] +205 RRL  WIN

MIN +165 ML LOSS [non RRL qualifying]

 
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Posted: #403

Thursday 5/23 results

Dog EFF Score

0-2, -2 units

YTD 11-15, -1.56 units

Balt 120 Loss

Minn 165 Loss

Dog EFF

1-1, +.6 units

YTD 34-32, +19.22 units

All 2 units

Balt 120 Loss

Clev 130 WIN

System Plays

1-1, +.3 units

YTD 118-138, +8.8 units

Balt 120 Loss

Clev 130 WIN

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #404

Friday system plays:

Dog EFF Score

YTD 11-15, -1.56 units

KC 105

 

Dog EFF

YTD 34-32, +19.22 units

All 2 units

NYY 100

Colo 140

System Plays

YTD 118-138, +8.8 units

NYY 100

Colo 140

Tor 110

Cle 110

Hou 150

SD 130

Phil/Was Under 7 -120

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #405
It seem like the >= 2 RRL numbers are high?  The lowest I see is .538.  Is it possible?
 
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Posted: #406
yes-
 
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Posted: #407
Quote Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

I like the way DanRules is currently formulating the official plays.  He runs the spreadsheet in the morning and whichever DOGS qualify as a play at that time - he makes it an official play.

Now that DOG could later become a favorite later in the day - but from my understanding (I could be totally wrong here) - but most sharps like to jump on the DOGS early to lock in their value - when they do this the line can typically move - it may move to the point where that DOG moves to a favorite. 

My 2 cents - is I hate paying juice - if you didn't lock in the value earlier in the day and now your would be paying juice - I would scratch the play personally.  So all that means is you should try to lock in your dog plays early.

This will also help you avoid situations where a team opens as a FAV and goes to a DOG - again - could be wrong here - but IF that is sharp money coming in on the other side forcing that team from a FAV to the DOG - you don't want that play anyway - as you are on the wrong side of the sharps.  Now there is more to it when it comes to line reading - you want to fade to PUBLIC money and follow the SHARP money - but this system does not deal with line movement in terms of play adjustment - but in a way DanRules is accounting for it by jumping on the DOGS early and locking in value.

Just my 2 cents - I could be totally wrong here - but that is the purpose of this thread - free idea exchange to help develop this DOG betting method.

BTW - the system killed it today if i'm not mistaken 100% WIN RECORD - like I said Friday when 11-15 favorites covered.  The DOGS will come a barking soon - that day was today!


I started reading from post #1 again, to see if I missed anything...blah, blah.  Anyway, this post caught my attention.  
Spitballing here, but what if we used the OPENING LINES to set the plays (as the Buddah system does, DeGen) and have the current lines along side, you can see where the money is going.  Like you said above, you really don't want to play a team that falls into the system late, because sharp money is going against that team.
However if you see that Cle opens at +140, is a play, and you refresh odds and the current line for CLE is +110...$$$ is coming in on Cle. a good thing. Personally, I might even bet it if Cle becomes a slight fav.
What do you all think about this?  That and the fact that everyone will have the same plays, if it's wired to the opening lines.  Shoot, I can use today's lines.  Cleveland opens at +120 and was at +110 when I updated it.  I just refreshed the lines and now it's +105.  If I waited to update until game time, or just before, Cle might be the favorite and wouldn't be on the sheet.  I know that this is a Dog thread, but Cle started as a Dog, $$$ is coming on them, and looks like a game to play. NYY is the same way right now +100.
Thoughts, DeGen, Dan, SN?  Anyone?
?
 
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Posted: #408
Okay , just finished reading through the rest of the posts.  It seems that no one would want the opening lines hardwired, the preferred method is the current lines.  
But here's a thought to this.  If it's linked to the opening lines, you can see via the current lines that a team is now a favorite, not bet them if you choose.  
Here's another, Dan updates early and makes his posts, which means the plays are already close to the opening lines (unless major $$$ comes down on the Dog early) but during the time from when Dan posts and game time a team(s) may float in and out of system plays and you have people come and say "I have this team or not this team."  A lot of extra posts not needed (like this one...I know!).
Just some thoughts.  The Buddah system has it as opening lines, the guy who made it says that's the key.
Thoughts, everyone?

DeGen, either way, in the next update could you put in all 3 columns of Dog Eff the DE for BOTH teams?  It was mentioned in the thread, I believe, but would help if say a team that was a system play, then went favorite, but I can still get them as a dog...I would have that info.
?
 
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Posted: #409
I'm guessing that today is when Dan needed me to sub, so....

Friday system plays:

Dog EFF Score

KC 105   Loss
 

Dog EFF


NYY 100  Win

Colo 140  Win

System Plays


NYY 100  Win

Colo 140  Win

Tor 110  Loss

Cle 110   Loss

Hou 150   Loss

SD 130   Loss

Phil/Was Under 7 -120   Push  (Bogus..My book gave me 6.5,,LOSS)
 
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Posted: #410
Sat 5/25
I don't know where Dan gets his lines but I used the "Current Line" column on the spreadsheet.


Dog EFF Score
Bal +140

Nyy +155 (I'm not sure on this: Nyy has +29 DWES, and Tb has a +7 FWES, If FEWS has to be a negative #, not a play)

Tex +110

Pit +115

Phi +140 (same as Nyy, Phi has +22 DWES, Was has +6 FWES)

Dog EFF
All 2 units

Bal +140
Nyy +155
Tex +110
Pit +115
Phi  +140



System Plays

Bal  140
Nyy  155
Tex  110
Colo  120
Pit  115
Phi 140

Chc/Cin Under
Tex/Sea Under
 
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Posted: #411

Friday results

Dog EFF Score

0-1, -1 unit

YTD 11-16, -2.56 units

KC 105 Loss

Dog EFF

2-0, +4.8 units

YTD 36-32, +24.02 units

All 2 units

NYY 100 WIN

Colo 140 WIN

System Plays

2-4, -1.6 units

YTD 120-142, +7.2 units

NYY 100 Win

Colo 140 Win

Tor 110 Loss

Cle 110 Loss

Hou 150 Loss

SD 130 Loss

Phil/Was Under 7 -120 Push

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #412

Saturday system plays

Dog EFF Score

YTD 11-16, -2.56 units

Balt 140

Texas 110

Pitt 115

Dog EFF

YTD 36-32, +24.02 units

All 2 units

Balt 140

LAA 110

NYY 155

Tex 110

Pitt 115

Phil 140

System Plays

YTD 120-142, +7.2 units

Balt 140

LAA 110

NYY 155

Tex 110

Pitt 115

Phil 140

Colo 120

Tex/Sea Under 6.5 -110

Cubs/ Cincy Under 7.5 -110

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #413
Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Sat 5/25
I don't know where Dan gets his lines but I used the "Current Line" column on the spreadsheet.


Dog EFF Score
Bal +140

Nyy +155 (I'm not sure on this: Nyy has +29 DWES, and Tb has a +7 FWES, If FEWS has to be a negative #, not a play)

Tex +110

Pit +115

Phi +140 (same as Nyy, Phi has +22 DWES, Was has +6 FWES)

Dog EFF
All 2 units

Bal +140
Nyy +155
Tex +110
Pit +115
Phi  +140



System Plays

Bal  140
Nyy  155
Tex  110
Colo  120
Pit  115
Phi 140

Chc/Cin Under
Tex/Sea Under

I manually added the line for LAA and got that as a play also. Also omitted the Phil and NYY as DOG EFF SCORE plays (need positive for dog and neg for fave).

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #414
Colo not a dog EFF?
 
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Posted: #415
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I manually added the line for LAA and got that as a play also. Also omitted the Phil and NYY as DOG EFF SCORE plays (need positive for dog and neg for fave).

That's what I thought but the difference was so much, I put it out there.

Rommi...Colo second column % is .385 and under .400, therefore no play as DE
 
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Posted: #416

Looks like Colo line changed moving them into a different Dog EFF bracket. Making them a play under Dog EFF

Saturday system plays (Revised and final)

Dog EFF Score

YTD 11-16, -2.56 units

Balt 140

Texas 110

Pitt 115

Dog EFF

YTD 36-32, +24.02 units

All 2 units

Balt 140

LAA 110

NYY 155

Tex 110

Pitt 115

Phil 140

Colo 115

System Plays

YTD 120-142, +7.2 units

Balt 140

LAA 110

NYY 155

Tex 110

Pitt 115

Phil 140

Colo 115

Tex/Sea Under 6.5 -110

Cubs/ Cincy Under 7.5 -110

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #417
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Friday's RRL results: (5/24/13

Dog EFF/RRL Score results: (non qualifying)

0-1, -1 unit

YTD 11-16, -2.56 units

KC +105 ML LOSS  (SU)

Dog EFF/RRL results: 2-0

2-0, +4.8 units

YTD 36-32, +24.02 units

All 2 units

<NYY +101 ML WIN | NYY [-1.5] +175 RRL WIN>RISK 2u WIN 3.5u

<COL +140 ML WIN | COL [¨-1.5] +205 RRL WIN>RISK 2u WIN 4.1u

System/RRL Plays results; (0-1)

2-4, -1.6 units

YTD 120-142, +7.2 units

NYY +101 ML WIN 

COL +140 ML WIN

TOR +110 ML LOSS  'cut'

CLE +110 ML LOSS  (SU)

HOU +150 ML  LOSS  'cut'

<SD +130 ML LOSS | SD [-1.5] +207 RRL LOSS>RISK 2u LOSS 2u

Phil/Was Under 7 -120 Push

Dog EFF/RRL | System/RRL plays: 2-1  +5.6u
 
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Posted: #418
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Saturday (5/25/13) system plays (Revised and final)

Dog EFF/RRL Score

YTD 11-16, -2.56 units

BAL +140 ML

TEX +110 ML

<PIT +115 ML | PIT [-1.5] +192 RRL>RISK 2u WIN 3.84u

Dog EFF/RRL

YTD 36-32, +24.02 units

All 2 units

BAL +140 ML

LAA +110 ML

NYY +155 ML

<TEX +110 ML | TEX [-1.5] +178 RRL>RISK 2u WIN 3.56u

PIT +115 ML

PHI +140 ML  'cut'

C0L +115 ML  'cut'

System/RRL Plays

YTD 120-142, +7.2 units

BAL +140 ML

<LAA +110 ML | LAA [-1.5] +170 RRL>RISK 2u WIN 3.4u

NYY +155 ML

TEX +110 ML

PIT +115 ML

PHI +140 ML  'cut'

COL +115 ML  'cut'

TEX/SEA Under 6.5 -110

CHC/ CIN Under 7.5 -110

 
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Posted: #419
DanRules - what do you think about adding this system to the spreadsheet - basically refining the divisional angle and removing the winning previous game criteria
 
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Posted: #420
https://s1.zetaboards.com/MisterMJ_Sports/topic/3600914/1/
 
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Posted: #421
DanRules - what do you think about adding this system to the spreadsheet - basically refining the divisional angle and removing the winning previous game criteria

https://s1.zetaboards.com/MisterMJ_Sports/topic/3600914/1/

 
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Posted: #422
Quote Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

DanRules - what do you think about adding this system to the spreadsheet - basically refining the divisional angle and removing the winning previous game criteria

https://s1.zetaboards.com/MisterMJ_Sports/topic/3600914/1/

For me, I would like it added instead of changing the current one.  For my stats since Apr 29th, it's at +8.47u (with Covers closing lines) betting at a flat rate, which is great, but far better is chasing on the A game (keeping the chase in a single series).  It doesn't have a loss yet, and is at +28.14u with -(300) out yet on Hou's C game/bet tomorrow.  If Hou could pull off a win on the C bet @ +150, that's +6.00u more in the pot.
Just me thoughts.

Btw...MLB system is horrible at chasing A games, it's at -(3.18u) with 7 losses though it's a unit better at flat betting.
 
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Posted: #423
Thanks for the info buckeye - good stuff we will have to recap what you and Danrules learned soon.
 
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Posted: #424

[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]

Yesterday's Dog EFF/RRL results:  (5/25/13

 [reference to post #418]

PIT [-1.5] +192 RRL  WIN

TEX [-1.5] +178 RRL  WIN

LAA [-1.5] +170 RRL  WIN

3-0  ROI: +10.8u

 
 
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Posted: #425
Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:


I started reading from post #1 again, to see if I missed anything...blah, blah.  Anyway, this post caught my attention.  
Spitballing here, but what if we used the OPENING LINES to set the plays (as the Buddah system does, DeGen) and have the current lines along side, you can see where the money is going.  Like you said above, you really don't want to play a team that falls into the system late, because sharp money is going against that team.
However if you see that Cle opens at +140, is a play, and you refresh odds and the current line for CLE is +110...$$$ is coming in on Cle. a good thing. Personally, I might even bet it if Cle becomes a slight fav.
What do you all think about this?  That and the fact that everyone will have the same plays, if it's wired to the opening lines.  Shoot, I can use today's lines.  Cleveland opens at +120 and was at +110 when I updated it.  I just refreshed the lines and now it's +105.  If I waited to update until game time, or just before, Cle might be the favorite and wouldn't be on the sheet.  I know that this is a Dog thread, but Cle started as a Dog, $$$ is coming on them, and looks like a game to play. NYY is the same way right now +100.
Thoughts, DeGen, Dan, SN?  
 

Every opening line in MLB 'changes' with dramatic line movement through out the day, leading to the first pitch. The variables are numerous, as are projected filters, and fine tuning adjustments. Based on the positive consistency of Dog EFF sheet, and the production results, this concept of concern should be left to the final decision of the handicapper at large (solely) the responsibility of the sheet has to stop at this point, and the activation of the handicap has to begin,  the point of no return, or, the final 'cut' leading to "the play" and subsequently "the wager".

Danrules puts out the 'early' Stations sportsbook line at the time of publishing, that's it, (is he expected to monitor the line daily? no, of course not) "the capper takes it from their", the sheet can't go any further. to modify adjustment, the entire sheet would have to be re-created (if it's not broken, why fix it) the sheet works fine, if you comprehend it's use in relation to the next step, which is taking what the sheet offers, and incorporating it as a 'tool' to form. bottom line> If you cannot capp a MLB game, the Dog EFF system sheet has no value to the understanding of the "winning edge"

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