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MLB Underdog Systems - Anyone want to track this for the season?

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Captain
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Posts: 5921
Posted: #601

Wednesday 6/12 results

Sagarin plays

0-1, -2 units

YTD 2-5, -5.8 units

All 2 Units

Cubs 107 Loss

Dog EFF Score

2-1, +1.27 units

YTD 37-37, +7.28 units

Clev 122 WIN

Philly 109 Loss

AZ 105 WIN

Dog EFF

3-1, +4.68 units

YTD 64-56, +32.92 units

All 2 units

KC 113 WIN

Bos 104 WIN

NYY 112 Loss

SD 117 WIN

System Plays

5-3, +2.36 units

YTD 189-227 +51.11 units

KC 113 WIN

Bos 104 WIN

NYY 112 Loss

SD 117 WIN

Clev 122 WIN

Cubs 107 Loss

Det/KC Under 7.5 -110 WIN

AZ/LAD Under 6.5 -120 Loss

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Captain
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Posts: 5921
Posted: #602

Thursday 6/13 plays

Sagarin plays

YTD 2-5, -5.8 units

All 2 Units

NYY 104

KC 130

Dog EFF Score

YTD 37-37, +7.28 units

Minn 129

Dog EFF

YTD 64-56, +32.92 units

All 2 units

NYY 104

Balt 101

Pitt 100

 

System Plays

YTD 189-227 +51.11 units

NYY 104

Balt 101

Pitt 100

KC 130

Mets 113

Cubs 115

Wash 123

Stl/Mets Under 6.5 -120

 

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Rookie
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Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 909
Posted: #603
Hey guys I just downloaded the spreadsheet.
I refreshed the odds and do not see the NYY or NYM as plays. What am I missing?
 
Prospect
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Joined: Aug, 2011
Posts: 17
Posted: #604
Quote Originally Posted by Air1:

Hey guys I just downloaded the spreadsheet.
I refreshed the odds and do not see the NYY or NYM as plays. What am I missing?


nyy is bet 3 I think?
 
Captain
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Joined: May, 2012
Posts: 5921
Posted: #605

Quote Originally Posted by Air1:

Hey guys I just downloaded the spreadsheet.
I refreshed the odds and do not see the NYY or NYM as plays. What am I missing?

The Mets qualify for the under 6 hits system. the Yanks qualified earlier when I posted but has since moved to -102 so they won't show on sheet.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Captain
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Posts: 5921
Posted: #606

Thursday 6/13 results

Sagarin plays

1-1, +.60 units

YTD 3-6, -5.2 units

All 2 Units

NYY 104 Loss

KC 130 Win

Dog EFF Score

0-1, -1 units

YTD 37-38, +6.28 units

Minn 129 Loss

Dog EFF

1-2, -1.98 units

YTD 65-58, +30.94 units

All 2 units

NYY 104 Loss

Balt 101 WIN

Pitt 100 Loss

System Plays

5-3, +2.69 units

YTD 194-230 +53.80 units

NYY 104 Loss

Balt 101 WIN

Pitt 100 Loss

KC 130 WIN

Mets 113 Loss

Cubs 115 WIN

Wash 123 WIN

Stl/Mets Under 6.5 -120 WIN

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Captain
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Posts: 5921
Posted: #607

Friday 6/14 plays

Sagarin plays

YTD 3-6, -5.2 units

All 2 Units

SF 125

Phil 106

Dog EFF Score

YTD 37-38, +6.28 units

Tor 123

Minn 126

NYY 140

 

Dog EFF

YTD 65-58, +30.94 units

All 2 units

Bos 102

Minn 126

Phil 106

 

System Plays

YTD 194-230 +53.80 units

Bos 102

Minn 126

Phil 106

Tor 123

Sea 174

Cubs 118

Mil 127

Mia 128

SF 125

AZ 112

Wash/Clev Under 7.5 -115

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Captain
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Posts: 5921
Posted: #608

Friday 6/14 presults

Sagarin plays

2-0, +4.62

YTD 5-6, -.58 units

All 2 Units

SF 125 WIN

Phil 106 WIN

Dog EFF Score

1-2, -.77 units

YTD 38-40, +5.51 units

Tor 123 WIN

Minn 126 Loss

NYY 140 Loss

Dog EFF

1-2, -1.88

YTD 66-60, +29.06 units

All 2 units

Bos 102 Loss

Minn 126 Loss

Phil 106 WIN

System Plays

7-4,  +4.74 units

YTD 201-234 +58.54 units

Bos 102 Loss

Minn 126 Loss

Phil 106 WIN

Tor 123 WIN

Sea 174 WIN

Cubs 118 WIN

Mil 127 Loss

Mia 128 WIN

SF 125 WIN

AZ 112 Loss

Wash/Clev Under 7.5 -115 WIN

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Prospect
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Joined: Dec, 2012
Posts: 243
Posted: #609
What got into my mind: Is it possible that if this system predicts Underdog wins very well, that the othe way round, the game which are left out are predicting Fav wins better?
I will test it tomorrow.
The games left out for fav. wins.
 
Captain
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Posts: 5921
Posted: #610

Saturday 6/15 plays

Sagarin plays

YTD 5-6, -.58 units

All 2 Units

Sea 108

Cubs 111

Dog EFF Score

YTD 38-40, +5.51 units

Tor 110

Minn 147

NYY 104

Pitt 156

 

Dog EFF

YTD 66-60, +29.06 units

All 2 units

Balt 104

Tor 110

Philly 131

System Plays

YTD 201-234 +58.54 units

Balt 104

Tor 110

Philly 131

Hou 120

Sea 108

Cubs 111

Sea/Oak Under 6.5 Even

LAD/Pitt Under 7 Even

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Banned
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Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 8426
Posted: #611
Quote Originally Posted by orhane:

What got into my mind: Is it possible that if this system predicts Underdog wins very well, that the other way round, the game which are left out are predicting Fav wins better?
I will test it tomorrow.
The games left out for fav. wins.
that has has already been done, but not per-say from the posted thread leans off the sheet, it comes from another dog formula, your results should lean towards aprx a 68% WIN ratio; taking the lower bracket rated dogs² and reverse your handicap, or as you put it "the other way around"  and yes, it's not only possible, it's highly probable. your backtrack will give a consistency reading to Favorite EFF/RL[-1.5] formula.....good stuff
 
Prospect
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Posts: 243
Posted: #612
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

that has has already been done, but not per-say from the posted thread leans off the sheet, it comes from another dog formula, your results should lean towards aprx a 68% WIN ratio; taking the lower bracket rated dogs² and reverse your handicap, or as you put it "the other way around"  and yes, it's not only possible, it's highly probable. your backtrack will give a consistency reading to Favorite EFF/RL[-1.5] formula.....good stuff

Thank you. I will work on it tomorrow. ML and RL stats. Good to have some experienced users who can lead the way.
 
Captain
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Posts: 5921
Posted: #613

Saturday 6/15 RESULTS

Sagarin plays

2-0, +4.38 units

YTD 7-6, +3.8 units

All 2 Units

Sea 108 WIN

Cubs 111 WIN

Dog EFF Score

2-2, +.57 units

YTD 40-42, +6.08 units

Tor 110 WIN

Minn 147 WIN

NYY 104 Loss

Pitt 156 Loss

Dog EFF

1-2, -1.8 units

YTD 67-62, +27.26 units

All 2 units

Balt 104 Loss

Tor 110 WIN

Philly 131 Loss

System Plays

5-3, +2.49 units

YTD 206-237 +61.03 units

Balt 104 Loss

Tor 110 WIN

Philly 131 Loss

Hou 120 WIN

Sea 108 WIN

Cubs 111 WIN

Sea/Oak Under 6.5 Even WIN

LAD/Pitt Under 7 Even Loss

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Captain
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Posts: 5921
Posted: #614

Sunday plays: Anyone notice the number of units the System plays has profited? +61.03 on flat bets would have a $25 bettor up $1525.75.

Sagarin plays

YTD 7-6, +3.8 units

All 2 Units

No plays

Dog EFF Score

YTD 40-42, +6.08 units

Minn 135

Tor 169

NYY 129

Dog EFF

YTD 67-62, +27.26 units

All 2 units

Bos 104

KC 140

Minn 135

Cubs 104

SD 101

SF 146

System Plays

YTD 206-237 +61.03 units

Bos 104

KC 140

Minn 135

Cubs 104

SD 101

SF 146

Hou 118

Sea 118

Mil 195

Mia 130

LAD 115

Sea/Oak Under 7 -110

 

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Banned
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Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 8426
Posted: #615

Danrules24,

many have noticed "the silent (tracking) majority has spoken"

+61u on dog play exclusively (before the AllStar game) is considered 'outstanding'  if not phenomenal...good work Dan-

 
Banned
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Posts: 8426
Posted: #616
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Sunday plays: "Anyone notice the number of units the System plays has profited? +61.03 on flat bets would have a $25 bettor up $1525.75"

 

the documented thread speaks for itself, after review, your tracking stats based on a 2.5u bet would have added 152.57u to the BR- excellent tracking stat to the equations of MM connected to the plus side in which only dog play possess- a note of interest: Dan, how many hours did it take you?
 
Captain
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Joined: May, 2012
Posts: 5921
Posted: #617

Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

the documented thread speaks for itself, after review, your tracking stats based on a 2.5u bet would have added 152.57u to the BR- excellent tracking stat to the equations of MM connected to the plus side in which only dog play possess- a note of interest: Dan, how many hours did it take you?

Oh, I've been noticing this for quite some time. Simply wanted to make note of it for anyone concentrating more on the EFF Score or EFF plays. There is great value here and I hope everyone is taking advantage!

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Prospect
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Joined: Aug, 2009
Posts: 65
Posted: #618
My only question as far as tracking goes is on post #588 on 6/8 the system plays record was 
164-203 for +4.37 units

On 6/9 post #591 the record was
169-210 for +43.97 units

Still positive units at that point but which is the correct number?
Thanks
 
Captain
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Posts: 5921
Posted: #619
Quote Originally Posted by CInderellaStory:

My only question as far as tracking goes is on post #588 on 6/8 the system plays record was 
164-203 for +4.37 units

On 6/9 post #591 the record was
169-210 for +43.97 units

Still positive units at that point but which is the correct number?
Thanks

Ugh, thanks for catching my error, I feel stupid. The correct number from 6/8 was +4.37, I screwed up the post for the 6/9 totals. The correct total for end of day 6/15 is +21.03 units, as we went on a good run. The 6/8 total of 4.37 should have changed to 3.97 after the 6/9 results of -.4 units, I missed deleting the 4 which changed this to 43.97.

Sorry guys for the error. I cannot apologize enough. The following post will have the correct system plays total.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Captain
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Joined: May, 2012
Posts: 5921
Posted: #620

Sunday results:

Sagarin plays

YTD 7-6, +3.8 units

All 2 Units

No plays

Dog EFF Score

2-1, +1.98

YTD 42-43, +8.06 units

Minn 135 Loss

Tor 169 WIN

NYY 129 WIN

Dog EFF

2-4, -3.18

YTD 69-66, +24.08 units

All 2 units

Bos 104 Loss

KC 140 WIN

Minn 135 Loss

Cubs 104 Loss

SD 101 WIN

SF 146 Loss

System Plays

4-8, -3.21

YTD 206-237 +17.82 units

Bos 104 Loss

KC 140 WIN

Minn 135 Loss

Cubs 104 Loss

SD 101 WIN

SF 146 Loss

Hou 118 WIN

Sea 118 Loss

Mil 195 Loss

Mia 130 WIN

LAD 115 Loss

Sea/Oak Under 7 -110 Loss

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Veteran
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Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 1304
Posted: #621

Danrules

The SYSTEM PLAY totals from post #614 are:

YTD 206-237 +61.03 units

in post #620 they are:

YTD 206-237 +17.82 units

which has the same record and completely different units? I have no idea what the units should be but shouldn't the record been updated to 210-245 to include yesterday's results?

Good work here overall Dan, thanks for your time and effort

One question...are the system play units based on risking 1 UNIT?

Thanks

 
Captain
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Posts: 5921
Posted: #622
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

Danrules

The SYSTEM PLAY totals from post #614 are:

YTD 206-237 +61.03 units

in post #620 they are:

YTD 206-237 +17.82 units

which has the same record and completely different units? I have no idea what the units should be but shouldn't the record been updated to 210-245 to include yesterday's results?

Good work here overall Dan, thanks for your time and effort

One question...are the system play units based on risking 1 UNIT?

Thanks

Apparently I should not post results late at night after a few beverages. I'll correct the record with my next post that include today's games.

Yes the system plays are 1 unit flat betting for ease of tracking. The system in which Degen got this from called for a money management system of 1.25% of your bankroll and then increase as the BR increases. A $25 bettor would have a $2000 bankroll and increase bets by $5 with every $400 gain.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Captain
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Posts: 5921
Posted: #623

Monday 6/17 plays with correct record and units.

Sagarin plays

YTD 7-6, +3.8 units

All 2 Units

No plays

Dog EFF Score

YTD 42-43, +8.06 units

Balt 174

Oak 109

 

Dog EFF

YTD 69-66, +24.08 units

All 2 units

Oak 109

Philly 104

Pitt 108

SD 108

 

System Plays

YTD 210-245 +17.82 units

Oak 109

Philly 104

Pitt 108

SD 108

Clev 120

Sea 160

Cubs 186

Mets 182

Cubs/STL Under 7.5 -115

 

 

 

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Captain
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Joined: May, 2012
Posts: 5921
Posted: #624

Monday 6/17 results

Sagarin plays

YTD 7-6, +3.8 units

All 2 Units

No plays

Dog EFF Score

0-2, -2 units

YTD 42-45, +6.06 units

Balt 174 Loss

Oak 109 Loss

Dog EFF

2-2, +.24 units

YTD 71-68, +24.32 units

All 2 units

Oak 109 Loss

Philly 104 WIN

Pitt 108 Loss

SD 108 WIN

System Plays

3-6, -2.88 units

YTD 213-251 +14.94 units

Oak 109 Loss

Philly 104 WIN

Pitt 108 Loss

SD 108 WIN

Clev 120 Loss

Sea 160 Loss

Cubs 186 Loss

Mets 182 Loss

Cubs/STL Under 7.5 -115 WIN

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Dec, 2012
Posts: 243
Posted: #625
The analysis of the Data takes a bit of time. 
I have tracked back data for the matches not choosen for a Underdog win. 
System started 4/16/13 and I tracked back to 5/24/13.
It sums up 264 selections.

General Results:
Money Line Favs
172 Won - 92 Lost
SR: 65,15%
Profit: 32,13 Units
Yield: 12,17%

RRL on Favs
122 Won - 142 Lost
SR: 46,21%
Profit: 26,49 Units

As for the Underdogs, it is better to take Home Selections as RL and Away selections on the ML.
I will track back last weeks too and update the results later.
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