NBA 2009 - Top 5 / Bottom 5

Hi -

Here’s a system I thought I would share that I am trying out for the first time this year.

Basically, after studying last year’s schedules for trends, I noticed that the Lakers, Boston, and Cleveland never lost 3 games in a row. Furthermore, Sacramento and Milwaukee never won 3 in a row. In fact, I don’t think Sac even won two in a row.

Now, according to current power rankings from different sites, as well as offseason observations, it seems that the top 3 teams mentioned above have improved their teams over the summer. Additionally, it seems things are still going to suck for Sacramento fans and Milwaukee fans. So what should we do with this information?

I’m going to suggest trying a Top 5 Bottom 5 ABC strategy throughout the season. The top 5 teams I am choosing are: LAL, CLE, BOS, SA, and ORL. The Bottom 5 teams this year, in my opinion, are going to be SAC, MIL, MIN, NY and MEM.

Basically, instead of playing all 82 games, this system only calls for playing the home games for the Top 5 and the away games for the Bottom 5. This will hopefully ensure success for the system.

The Top 5 are not series chases, but the Bottom 5 are. In other words, you are playing every Top 5 Home game. If they leave town after losing your A bet, play the B bet when they return for their next home series. As for the Bottom 5, you are only playing the first 3 games of each away series with 3 games or more. When you win that series with the A, B or C bet, you are done until the next away series.

Now, I’m sure this kind system has been done before and I certainly don’t claim it as my own. I will say, however, that after going over the numbers from last season, and taking into account the development of the teams over the summer, this system looks promising. I figure that each of the teams can afford one C bet loss. Last year, out of these 10 teams, that only happened once with SA and they are a much better team this year.

As for MM, feel free to use whatever ABC system that you are comfortable with. Personally, I am starting out with a 5-5 Lauberge. My first bet is to win $10 (5+5). Any losses are split between the A, B and C betting lines for that team and added to the end of that line. For example, CLE hosts BOS tonight. The juice is (was) -200, so I made a $20 bet to win $10 (5+5 from the A betting line). If  CLE wins, our betting lines all stay at

5-5. But if BOS wins, we will take the $20 we lost, divide by three (and round up to the next dollar) and add it to A, B and C so each of our CLE lines will be 5-5-7. The next bet will be to win $12. If we win that bet, take off the two outside numbers and go back to 5-5.

Finally, I made a spreadsheet with all of the picks for this year. The Top 5 teams are on the left and the Bottom 5 teams are on the right.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Ap3Khvy1Y2TIdFFpSjlvOG91VFNfLVh0WUxUTnlNR3c&hl=en

Good Luck and thanks for any suggestion, tips, or thoughts!