New YPPT Method

Sorry gang I took a nap. Based on old formula I don't see this as being a play either way.

Chicago   17

Atlanta    21

GL

The Total Dudley YPP Method

• The first step is to add Minnesota's offensive yards gained to Detroit's yards allowed and Minnesota's points scored to Detroit's points allowed. This will give us 2,855 (1,345+1,510) and 202 (91+111).
  

• The second step is to add Detroit's yards gained to Minnesota's yards allowed and Detroit's points scored to Minnesota's points allowed. This gives totals of 2,643 (1,291+1,352) and 164 (86+78).
  

• The third step is to create an adjusted offensive YPP for both teams. For Minnesota, divide 2,855 by 202 to get 14.13. For Detroit, divide 2,643 by 164 to get 16.12.
  

• The fourth step is to change our yardage figures into a per-game average. Simply divide Minnesota's offensive yardage figure (2,855) by eight to get 356.88, which is Minnesota's predicted yards gained. Detroit's expected yards gained of 2,643 divided by eight is 330.38. (Remember we're using eight because we have both four games of offensive yards and four games of defensive yards.)
  

• The final step is to divide Minnesota's predicted yards of 356.88 by its adjusted offensive YPP of 14.13 to get a predicted score of 25.26. Dividing Detroit's predicted yards of 330.38 by its adjusted offensive YPP yields a predicted score of 20.49.

As you can see, the Vikings rate nearly two points better with this method and the predicted score is several points less. These are because of the inclusion of Minnesota's defensive YPP rating, which is well above average.

Most bettors using these, or any YPP system, generally look for a difference of at least five points between the predicted outcome and the point spread before making a play.

Remember, there is no correct way or incorrect way to use YPP numbers. You can use them short-term, as these two systems do, or use season statistics. Both will give the football bettor a different method of looking at the teams playing a particular game.

I knew about this system. The only thing I didn't know is fourth step that it uses a "four game average"?

It divides total yards by eight?

What happens when more games are played? Is it still divided by 8? Result will be too big of yardage.

Or each game is worth "2"?

lou4062

Use OpenOffice.org it is a free option instead of excel.

GL

Thanks roughshod,

I am going to check that out right now. I appreciate it.

This morning I made some minor adjustments to the original YPPT formula from 10/11.

Whats New

Adjustment for HFA of 3.5 Pts.  -1.75 Away/+1.75 Home

Take into account average number of plays both OFF/DEF.

Take into account average yards per play both OFF/DEF.

These changes alter the projected outcomes very little from original YPPT formula.

Tonights Projected Outcome Using these Changes.

Denver            389 Total Yds.  16.76 YPPT       (23.21 PTS)

San Diego        288 Total Yds.  26.79 YPPT       (10.75 PTS)

Adjusted Projected Score

Denver       23.21 - 1.75 HFA = 21.46                      21

San Diego  10.75 + 1.75 HFA = 12.50                      13

GL

Glad to see the HFA applied to your system roughshod31.  You always seem to be tinkering to get it just right...that's a good thing!

Good luck!