All Forums | Systems & Strategies

New YPPT Method

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 253696
Posts: 1286
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2008
Posts: 2322
Posted: #351
been checkin out the system......for tonights game...does it matter that san diego has played one fewer game than denver when you are computing your numbers...just a question????that is why denver has more total yards on average....just asking...please let meknow thanks
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #352

lou4062

If you know someone who uses excel they can teach you the basics in 2-3 minutes. (Thats what I had to do this past week.)

GL

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 51
Posted: #353
its a bit confusing, but im going to go with
 
Denver 21
 
San Diego 13
 
 
Hope this is right
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #354

gabs24

I don't think how many games a team has played makes a whole lot of difference. I personally care more about the level of competition each team has played and how well they did against that certain level. My formula takes into account whether a team is just beating up on poor teams (NY Giants) or if  a team is playing well against more formidable opponents (N.O. Saints). That being said no system is perfect that is why I am constantly looking for ways to enhance what I already have. Suggestions are always welcome.

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2007
Posts: 166
Posted: #355
Roughshod31 how comfortable are you with denver +3.5??
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #356

KaraMel

I am as comfortable with the Broncos +3.5 as I am with any of my selections in this forum. The fact that the Chargers are favored makes me stop to ask why this. The Chargers have been very one dimensional so far this season. That being said I don't think the Charger running game will be held in check all season. I will be backing what has easily been the best defense this season in the Broncos. Remember there are no SURE THINGS in gambling.

GL

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 93
Posted: #357
be very careful on this game.  stats vs. stats.  It looks like Broncos will win by a good touchdown but sunday games have show me that even a better team can lose.  Look at eagles, jets, and bengals.  All three of them should win SU against the other team but it's not the case.  Match maker knew this before setting up the spread for this game.  I think this game is either chargers or no play in my opinion.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 583
Posted: #358
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:

This morning I made some minor adjustments to the original YPPT formula from 10/11.

Whats New

Adjustment for HFA of 3.5 Pts.  -1.75 Away/+1.75 Home

Take into account average number of plays both OFF/DEF.

Take into account average yards per play both OFF/DEF.

These changes alter the projected outcomes very little from original YPPT formula.

Tonights Projected Outcome Using these Changes.

Denver            389 Total Yds.  16.76 YPPT       (23.21 PTS)

San Diego        288 Total Yds.  26.79 YPPT       (10.75 PTS)

Adjusted Projected Score

Denver       23.21 - 1.75 HFA = 21.46                      21

San Diego  10.75 + 1.75 HFA = 12.50                      13

GL



I'm with you bro! BOL!
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 422
Posted: #359
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:

This morning I made some minor adjustments to the original YPPT formula from 10/11.

Whats New

Adjustment for HFA of 3.5 Pts.  -1.75 Away/+1.75 Home

Take into account average number of plays both OFF/DEF.

Take into account average yards per play both OFF/DEF.

These changes alter the projected outcomes very little from original YPPT formula.

Tonights Projected Outcome Using these Changes.

Denver            389 Total Yds.  16.76 YPPT       (23.21 PTS)

San Diego        288 Total Yds.  26.79 YPPT       (10.75 PTS)

Adjusted Projected Score

Denver       23.21 - 1.75 HFA = 21.46                      21

San Diego  10.75 + 1.75 HFA = 12.50                      13

GL



ugh! i still can't figure out where I went wrong with your formula

After losing about $1140 tonight, I realized that the YPPT of the formula I had was way wrong and by adjusting the formula, instead of

Denver 19
San Diego 26

i got

Denver 20
San Diego 14

this is not including HFA. do you feel that HFA is really that essential?

I was wondering how you got 288 total yards for San Diego. my yppt formula is definitely different than yours, but my yppt for denver was 16.6 and san diego was 27.05 so im not too worried about that. the thing thats way off on mine is that SD has a projected 354.1 yards!
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 422
Posted: #360
roughshod

i figured out what I did wrong, my formulas are still a little different than yours but are approximately similar. I was wondering if you think that the SOS multiplier should have a different formulas for the NFL and NCAA? I think they should. Also, I think the HFA -1.75/+1.75 should have more of an effect in NCAA than in the NFL

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 55
Posted: #361
roughshod,

Can you make a screen capture video showing how you do this?  This is very intriguing but I'm lost in the math.  Or send me a pm, would'ya?
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 60
Posted: #362
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:

This morning I made some minor adjustments to the original YPPT formula from 10/11.

Whats New

Adjustment for HFA of 3.5 Pts.  -1.75 Away/+1.75 Home

Take into account average number of plays both OFF/DEF.

Take into account average yards per play both OFF/DEF.

These changes alter the projected outcomes very little from original YPPT formula.

Tonights Projected Outcome Using these Changes.

Denver            389 Total Yds.  16.76 YPPT       (23.21 PTS)

San Diego        288 Total Yds.  26.79 YPPT       (10.75 PTS)

Adjusted Projected Score

Denver       23.21 - 1.75 HFA = 21.46                      21

San Diego  10.75 + 1.75 HFA = 12.50                      13

GL

 

Ok roughshod,

With these new adjustments, I am assuming you are still using the rush and pass yards from before?  Also, are you using sos part two?  I understand the HFA but how did you account for the yards per play and number of plays?

Thanks

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 33
Posted: #363
could somebody type this out with the current stats for the tulsa/utep game?  i am really close to figuring this out but need to check my numbers...
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 250
Posted: #364
Hi roughshod,
Any idea how well your model predicts point differentials vs. win / lose?
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 24
Posted: #365
pretty impressed by this method, are you going to be posting the picks for every game?
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 790
Posted: #366
Been following this system and it makes a lot of sense (and its been scary accurate at times).  I would use it to do an initial screening of the games to pick your plays for the week and look at those games for situations that you like.
It also seems more accurate with pro team.  NCAA has too many team, too much talent disparity, too many players, too many different offensive systems, too many blow outs, etc. for a Yards per point to accurately predict the outcome. Of course I could be totally wrong. 
Has anyone come up with a way to figurSubmite in Special Teams into this system?  GLTA
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 790
Posted: #367
Has anyone come up with a way to incorporate Special Teams numbers into this system? 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2006
Posts: 1194
Posted: #368
I will have too look at this more intensely.

One thing in Football there are a lot of injuries?
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #369

I made some other small alterations to this system. This time involving SOS Multiplier. I will use Tulsa/UTEP game as a test sample.

Tulsa    490 Total YDS    13.93 YPPT      35.22
UTEP    290 Total YDS     14.93 YPPT      19.39
I am also testing a different NCAA HFA Method where I start with 3.5 & add or subtract 1 point for every 7points in Sagarin Power Rating Differential.

Projected Score

Tulsa  34

UTEP 21

We'll have to see how well this works tomorrow.




 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2001
Posts: 41899
Posted: #370
The system (your original system with statfox stats went 9-5-0 this weekend in the NFL sides).

The system picked 50% in college football. For two straight weeks, it has picked good numbers in the NFL.

I'd personally stick to NFL.

College football, there are too many teams, too many games, too many blowouts, and teams face AA teams. Sagarin SOS numbers (or any person keeping track of college football SOS) is more difficult and less accurate to predict.






 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 151
Posted: #371
hey roughshod are you going to do week 7 this week this system is somewhat successful,  how you do on week 6?
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2007
Posts: 448
Posted: #372

 

Great thread !!!

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 110
Posted: #373
keep it up roughshod!
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2008
Posts: 20621
Posted: #374

roughshod what do you think I used the same off/def ave but only used Tulsa/UTEP last 3 off/def games may give and indication if a team is hot or cold

Tulsa  241+277=518/12yppt=43.16

UTEP 126+141=267/16.5yppt=16.18

Tulsa 42

UTEP 17

 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 1189
Posted: #375
All Forums | Systems & Strategies
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.