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New YPPT Method

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Posted: #576
Quote Originally Posted by QuicKicK:

I use this same system (got from a book in '83 or '84 using the USFL) along with another system based on the all the teams strength of schedule along with my ratings that I adjust weekly. 

I saw the same flaw you mention.  So, if my strength of schedule system show 20-17 and the YPPT system shows, for example 31-14, I know that team won with turnovers, kick returns, etc. and maybe the other team lost because of them. That's why I went with Oakland over Philadelphia 2 weeks ago.  That's my Rule 13 play.  Hits about 65%.



This system predicted that Oak would cover the 14.  What is your point?
 
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Posted: #577
And last week NFL same case was what 6-1? Or was a different +/-?

 
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Posted: #578

Quote Originally Posted by CallMeBruce:



This system predicted that Oak would cover the 14.  What is your point?

No.  My strength of schedule system had Phil 36-14.  My YPPT system (I adjust with my ratings) had Phil 69-6.  I surveyed my system for this situation after losing big in 1996.  I found that when the YPPT system has a range 10 points or better than my strength of schedule system it's best to go against the computer.

 
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Posted: #579
 
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Posted: #580

Quote Originally Posted by B_A_R_N_E_Y:

        STFU YU SUK SO BAD DUDE   These Guys RULE   TOOT YOUR LOOSING HORN SOMEWHERE ELSE 

What's wrong with you.  I've been using this system for years (since 1981 - took the last 4 years off).  I'm trying to help by letting them know that it's not just the system.  There are psycological factors.  The survey of my systems tells me when to expect a turn-around of fortunes with the situation of Phil/Oak.  At least for a day. 

 
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Posted: #581
I followed the method and (please correct me on this) I think the plays that'll come out should be:

San Diego -5
Indianapolis -14
Chicago +1
Cleveland +9.5
Minnesota +6
New England -14.5
San Francisco +3
NY Jets -6
Buffalo +7
Miami +6
Atlanta +4.5
Arizona +7
Philadelphia -7
 
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Posted: #582
 
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Posted: #583
 
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Posted: #584
Quote Originally Posted by CrazyMilkMan:

I followed the method and (please correct me on this) I think the plays that'll come out should be:

San Diego -5
Indianapolis -14
Chicago +1
Cleveland +9.5
Minnesota +6
New England -14.5
San Francisco +3
NY Jets -6
Buffalo +7
Miami +6
Atlanta +4.5
Arizona +7
Philadelphia -7


i got this too except for cleveland and miami
 
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Posted: #585

I TOOK AFILTER TO INCLUDE TOURN OVERRATIO......PLAYS WOULD BE COLTS,PATS,BEARS,FALCONS.EAGLES.JETS.

 
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Posted: #586

According to the game thread, Cleveland players had the flu. Just in case someone is playing that game.

 
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Posted: #587
Roughshod31 and VGPOP,   I am looking forward to your plays today.  This is awesome.!!!!
 
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Posted: #588
me too toots
 
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Posted: #589
did roughshod or vgpop post the plays yet?
 
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Posted: #590

Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:

NFL Week 7 (Original system with statfox stats. 9-5-0 last week)

San Diego 37
Kansas City 17

Indianapolis 30
St Louis 8

Chicago 20
Cincinnati 19

Green Bay 20
Cleveland 16

Minnesota 29
Pittsburgh 21

New England 53
Tampa Bay 8

San Francisco 34
Houston 18

NY Jets 20
Oakland 8

Buffalo 23
Carolina 13

New Orleans 30
Miami 26

Atlanta 32
Dallas 13

Arizona 35
NY Giants 16

Philadelphia 26
Washington 9

Let's see how it does this weekend.

Posted during the week

 
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Posted: #591
thanks highstakes
 
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Posted: #592

According to the original formula the plays with hfa look closer to these numbers

EARLY GAMES

INDY 30  STL 20

HOU 21 SF 17

SD 24 KC 13

NE 38 TB 13

PITT 23 MIN 17

CLE 20 GB 17

 
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Posted: #593
can i ask why does evryone have diif play on the same system,,,,,,,,were is roughsot31  just his plays matter......
 
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Posted: #594

Quote Originally Posted by cap2win:

can i ask why does evryone have diif play on the same system,,,,,,,,were is roughsot31  just his plays matter......

 

YPPT  is not a new sytem...Roughsot31 posted this thread to gather opinion to improve the system, so it has been tinkered with...plus im sure not everyone's Math is 100% correct...

 
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Posted: #595
Quote Originally Posted by rkydkydoc:

According to the original formula the plays with hfa look closer to these numbers

EARLY GAMES

INDY 30  STL 20

HOU 21 SF 17

SD 24 KC 13

NE 38 TB 13

PITT 23 MIN 17

CLE 20 GB 17

What's HFA?

 
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Posted: #596
is anyone tracking the record of this system or just blindly following it?


 
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Posted: #597
HFA is home field advantage
 
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Posted: #598
Quote Originally Posted by rkydkydoc:


NE 38 TB 13



Not to question the system but this game should have no HFA because it is in London should be a neutral game.
 
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Posted: #599
VGPOP seems to have everything under control here with the projections. This works out very nice for me because I know this is in good hands while I work on my next idea. VGPOP is much more efficient with EXCEL and is capable of getting the info to you much sooner than I can. Once I get some of the details worked out with new idea I will present it here for VGPOP & some of the others who are more computer suave than I. Until then GL & may all your bets be winners.
 
 
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Posted: #600
I have been following this thread for a while but why does HFA account for so much? For example rkydkydoc your plays with HFA figured in differ greatly from VG's posted plays earlier this week. The spreads and totals are way different. Trying to figure out who to follow. Appreciate the hard work by everybody though.
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