New YPPT Method

NBA TEST FORMULA

This is a test formula using last seasons stats. Do not consider this a formula play in any way. System uses very similar principles as football system, using POINTS PER ATTEMPT in each shooting situation in place of YPPT.

Test Projection

                          2 PTA     PPA      3PTA    PPA    FTA     PPA

Boston                 57.83    .962       16.95    1.065    22.93   .821  

Cleveland            56.67     .961       19.56    1.067   26.08   .771   

Projected Score

Boston           92.47

Cleveland      95.44

Remember this is in the trial phase I need this years stats for more accurate results.  

GL

There are much better ways to test the accuracy of your model than just the ATS record of when the games meet your criteria.

Action points is one of them.  Actions points is how the team did in relation to the spread.  So if the thread is +7 and the team looses by 3 your are -4 action points.  If they win by 3 you are +10 action points.  Your goal is to be as positive as possible

Ther other is how often does your model say to bet an opening line but pass on a closing line.  This is showing you if your model is in agreement with the market.  This is the strongest way to predict the sccuracy of your model.  If your model isconstantly predicting the correct movement of the market it IS A WINNER. 

Also keep in mind that almost no models do well in al situations.  Dr. Bob boasts the most famous and accurate math model on the planet (that we know of atleast). And even he admitted that his model seriously struggles on large road favorites.  This comes from some serious testing and work and if you guys are willing to do that than give up on the whole"math to give you and edge" mindet, because you wont get one. 

I understand you were just answering their question.  this is for everyone else 

There are much better ways to test the accuracy of your model than just the ATS record of when the games meet your criteria.

Action points is one of them.  Actions points is how the team did in relation to the spread.  So if the thread is +7 and the team looses by 3 your are -4 action points.  If they win by 3 you are +10 action points.  Your goal is to be as positive as possible

Ther other is how often does your model say to bet an opening line but pass on a closing line.  This is showing you if your model is in agreement with the market.  This is the strongest way to predict the sccuracy of your model.  If your model isconstantly predicting the correct movement of the market it IS A WINNER. 

Also keep in mind that almost no models do well in al situations.  Dr. Bob boasts the most famous and accurate math model on the planet (that we know of atleast). And even he admitted that his model seriously struggles on large road favorites.  This comes from some serious testing and work and if you guys are willing to do that than give up on the whole"math to give you and edge" mindet, because you wont get one. 

I understand you were just answering their question.  this is for everyone else 

Hey Lou,

I thought the SOS was just the SCHEDL number?  I may be wrong, just wondering.

Hey Lou,

I thought the SOS was just the SCHEDL number?  I may be wrong, just wondering.

I believe he was getting the SOS from USA Today

Remember seeing something about it on page 30 or 31 ??

Thanks horseman,

Both sos formulas came from USA today I believe but that is the original that he used there on that page.

Hey guys, I think I finally have the spreadsheet, but my number is off for Ind and SF, I used them as an example.  I have...

IND 31    SF 14

Can anyone verify these numbers for me and who is willing to verify my spreadsheet.  Especially anyone that knows this system, please tell me if I have this correct.  I have a spreadsheet ready to be sent.  PM me if you want to check it out.

Recon