New YPPT Method

Hey guys,

Those lucky to get the spreadsheet from USASurfer, can someone email it to me at Thanks!  Or if you want PM me first then we'll do it through covers.

Recon

Thanks roughshod for sending me a thorough example for this weeks game.  That is a nice way to double check everything just to be sure. Checking back to your earlier posts, I can see what your doing but I can't try it because the games are gone.  I wish that you could go back to the match ups of prior games but you can not.  The games disapear pretty quickly,  once they are played. 

Here is what I got for the tex at ok.st

        yds       yppt      pts    hfa      scor

tex  430.1     12.6     34.1   -1.25   32.8   (34)

ok   240.7     15.9    15.1   +1.25  16.4    (17)

I rounded up for tex so I rounded up for ok also.

I only gave ok +2.5 because of what you said about the 7 point difference in power ratings.

tex = 86.49

ok st = 79.26

If someone wouldn't mind, thanks

lol i know but ehhh ya know

2 years....its more like 5

:(  

now that you say that and I think about it....

I'm at myself

Great work everybody.  This has got to be one of the best threads I've read on Covers.

I've PM'd a couple of you on the thread and will try to give the spreadsheet a run tomorrow. 

GL to all!

If someone could send that along I'd greatly appreciate it. This is really an incredible thread.

Just add me as a friend and PM me and I'll reply with my email.

Thanks!!!!

Nice job guys, thanks for sharing your info.

PasqualeF

I would love a pm with spread sheet as well... also... did this by hand and was curious if it is right...

WV 24 (23.7)

SF 20 (20.1)

thanks....I don't I would rely on this but is sure seems like a GREAT cappingtool.

[
NFL:
18 wins - 6 losses - 1 PUSH (75%)


NCAAF:
24 wins - 15 losses - 1 PUSH (61.5%)


TOTAL:
42 wins - 21 losses - 2 PUSH (66.7%) [/Quote]

There are much better ways to test the accuracy of your model than just the ATS record of when the games meet your criteria.

Action points is one of them.  Actions points is how the team did in relation to the spread.  So if the thread is +7 and the team looses by 3 your are -4 action points.  If they win by 3 you are +10 action points.  Your goal is to be as positive as possible

Ther other is how often does your model say to bet an opening line but pass on a closing line.  This is showing you if your model is in agreement with the market.  This is the strongest way to predict the sccuracy of your model.  If your model isconstantly predicting the correct movement of the market it IS A WINNER. 

Also keep in mind that almost no models do well in al situations.  Dr. Bob boasts the most famous and accurate math model on the planet (that we know of atleast). And even he admitted that his model seriously struggles on large road favorites.  This comes from some serious testing and work and if you guys are willing to do that than give up on the whole"math to give you and edge" mindet, because you wont get one. 

I understand you were just answering their question.  this is for everyone else 

I ment to quote the ATS records in the above post.

Action points is much stronger than ATS record and market predition is even stronger than that.