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New YPPT Method

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Posts: 680
Posted: #901

New Test Model YPPT System

In this model I am using a different set of Power Ratings,Capping the YPPT high & low end @ 25.0/10.0. (Helps keep scores a little more believable). And lastly I am using a variated SOS system where I use the sportsbook .com average power rating of opponents played @ 75% and Sagarin Pure Points - average league schedule ( 20.20 for NFL & 68.93 NCAAF) 25%.

Projected Scores Using this Model

Denver           21

Baltimore       14


Cleveland       14

Chicago           21


Houston           17

Buffalo             21


San Francisco   14

Indianapolis       23


Miami                23

NYJets               17


St. Louis             10

Detroit                 30


Seattle                 20

Dallas                   24


NY Giants              35

Philadelphia          21


Minnesota              27

Green Bay              21


Oakland                  10

San Diego               28


Jacksonville             20

Tennessee                27


Carolina                   10

Arizona                     35

NCAA Sunday Night

Marshall                    17

Central Florida          20

Teams that would meet +/-  7 pt. differential ( Denver, Buffalo, Miami, Detroit, NY Giants, Minnesota, and Arizona)

DO NOT PLAY THESE GAMES AS THIS IS A TEST MODEL!

GL


 

 
Prospect
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Posts: 55
Posted: #902
Check my profile comments for download link to spreadsheet.  roughshod's system.  (courtesy of GSHawk20 for sharing)
 
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Posts: 106
Posted: #903

Quote Originally Posted by Mr_Miracle:

Check my profile comments for download link to spreadsheet.  roughshod's system.  (courtesy of GSHawk20 for sharing)

 

I get an error message on rapidshare, and the other one just keeps loading

 
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Posted: #904
Quote Originally Posted by thehorsemen2:

 

I get an error message on rapidshare, and the other one just keeps loading


try it again
 
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Posts: 49
Posted: #905
THANKS, for all of your hard work guys
 
Veteran
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Posts: 1493
Posted: #906

Yes thanks...I believe the early 3 games are 0-3.  Thanks for all of your hard work donkeys.  Let's see if we can get back to 2-3 this afternoon.

Let's see 6-2-1 + 0-3...Does that make this system just like any other one?  I believe so.

 
Prospect
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Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 376
Posted: #907
Quote Originally Posted by Airmail26:

Yes thanks...I believe the early 3 games are 0-3.  Thanks for all of your hard work donkeys.  Let's see if we can get back to 2-3 this afternoon.

Let's see 6-2-1 + 0-3...Does that make this system just like any other one?  I believe so.

oh hello Airmail - u r back ..
 
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Posts: 1493
Posted: #908
Yep - I am back.  Just want make sure all the kool aid drinkers got a reality check.  Good news...we are 2 hours away from going 0-5.  Great work guys!!
 
Captain
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Posts: 6580
Posted: #909

I dont know about the rest of the days action but this thread was one of the determining factors in me taking Miami +3.5. Thank You for the help on that.

 

 
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Posts: 49
Posted: #910
Okay i know that there are several of variations out there, so which variation seem to work the best...and could someone explain the differences in the variation....i know that you guys get the SOS from usa today, are you guys just using the schedl rank #?

thanks in advanced, im working on make the sheet show and calculate every game...NFL wont be that bad but NCAA will take some time.  I just want to make sure i get everything in order before i make the sheet.  i will definately pass it out when im done.
 
Captain
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Posts: 7403
Posted: #911

Why are you guys wasting your time with this garbage? 

 
Prospect
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Posts: 10
Posted: #912
Quote Originally Posted by Mr_Miracle:

Check my profile comments for download link to spreadsheet.  roughshod's system.  (courtesy of GSHawk20 for sharing)


thanks for posting the download link! but i was wondering where you were getting the strength of schedule number already in the spreadsheet for atlanta and new orleans? im looking at usa today's sagarin rating and i cant find 28 and 26.9 anywhere on the page. also, do you know which version the roughshod's original formula this spreadsheet is using?
 
Legend
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Joined: Sep, 2001
Posts: 41899
Posted: #913
NFL Week 8 Predictions

Denver 23 - Baltimore 15 (***SYSTEM***) LOSE
 
Cleveland 13 - Chicago 23 LOSE
 
Houston 22 - Buffalo 16 WIN

Minnesota 23 - Green Bay 25 WIN

San Francisco 14 - Indianapolis 24 WIN

Miami 19 - NY Jets 20 WIN

St Louis 10 - Detroit 25 (***SYSTEM***) LOSE

Seattle 23 - Dallas 20 (***SYSTEM***) LOSE

Oakland 10 - San Diego 34 (***SYSTEM***) LOSE

Jacksonville 23 - Tennessee 22 LOSE

Carolina 9 - Arizona 38 (***SYSTEM***) LOSE

NY Giants 39 - Philadelphia 22 (***SYSTEM***) LOSE

Atlanta 27 - New Orleans 31 (Monday Night)


System plays (+/- 7 points or more difference): 0-6-0 (0%)
Non-system: (+/- 6.5 points or less difference): 4-2-0 (66.7%)

After three outstanding weekends picking 18 winners out of 24 selections, system can't pick a single winner this week. All six system plays lose.

System plays stands at 18 wins - 12 losses - 1 Push (60%).

3 winning weekends, 1 losing weekend.

That's how systems are, sometimes.

Let's see what happens next week.

Take it easy....
 
Captain
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Posts: 6580
Posted: #914
It's worth pursuing despite this bad weekend. Even if the system proves a failure its still giving us something. I thank everyone who has put in any time at all on it. Please keep up the good work.
 
Rookie
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Joined: Jan, 2009
Posts: 634
Posted: #915
Money manegment after 4 weeks,your a winner good work,keep it going lets see how it plays out.
 
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Posts: 532
Posted: #916
appreciate your hard work guys....please continue to post.  It really helps us out.  I would not know where to turn if it wasn't for this system.  THANKS A BUNCH, even with a tough day in the NFL.  LATE
 
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Posted: #917
this is a good system, just a bad week 8, too many 3-3 teams vs 6-0 ones... just don't use this system on week 8.
 
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Posts: 984
Posted: #918
Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

Why are you guys wasting your time with this garbage? 


Its part of our arsenal, YPPT has long been a good capping tool, adjusting for HAF and other factors can only help....
 
Prospect
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Posts: 1
Posted: #919
Hi, I'm new to all of this new sports statistics, but I was wondering how you get the "Opp. Allow" information to do this YPPT method. I understand everything else except for the part which gives you the "(+/-)" numbers.

Your patronage is appreciated.
 
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Posts: 593
Posted: #920
  A HEAD BANGING WEEK IN THE NFL........
 
Prospect
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Posts: 158
Posted: #921

den10808,

Check statfox, expanded matchup and look for the stats near the bottom, opp allow = Opp Def Avg.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #922
So what about tonight? Looking forward to the prediction. I believe I am taking the underdog, but want to look at the predicted score.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #923

Drink the Kool Aid folks.  Go print out all of the posts with the college picks for this week and tell me it was a positive weeks.  1 minute there were system plays and the next minute there were a whole new set of system plays.  If you give enough scenarios you can always find one with a positive result.

 
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Posts: 657
Posted: #924
Has anybody run this sheet with any historical data to backtest what we have here?
 
 
Prospect
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Posts: 151
Posted: #925
This system is good but not great
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