NHL 2 Team road parlay system

Just mocked up todays 3 team road parlay and it pays out nearly 3x. I'm drooling. Doing loose math in my head, with 3x payouts I think we could handle two 8 game losses per season. Maybe more, but this season is shorter. 

I'm going to plays Dan's 2 team system today and I'm going to play the 3 team (tiny amount). 

Purely for informational purposes, do not advise tailing yet..

2009 - If you bet $100 every time there were 3 or more teams that were road favorites and put them all in ONE parlay (3 teamer if 3 teams, 5 teamer if 5, etc), you would've gone 4/44, hit three 3-teamers and one 4-teamer. Net loss of -1567.98. No chase system created yet, just purely $100 parlay each time.

2010 - Same system you go 8/39. You hit six 3-teamers and two 4-teamers for a net profit of 2206.74.

Tonight, you'd have a 5 teamer lol.

Wait, are you talking about playing EVERY road favorite each day? I was talking about just doing top 3, if there is 3. 

Every road favorite. 3 team parlays, 4 team parlays, 5 teamers... However many road favorites there are each day. Like I said, you'd be amazed at how much it hits.

8/39 in 2010? That's bonkers for EVERY parlay being a 3 teamer or more.

The other weird thing is how often a day has ONE team that loses... and it's the highest favorite lol. We could back test all of this though. Share spreadsheets. We really need a freaking discord!

Uh don't look now but if the Bruins cover and the Wild win... the 5 gamer would've hit tonight with the way all things are looking right now. 

Of course it's gonna hit. 

I'm only on the two team parlay and the three team (with Wild). 

We could round robin the parlays, but I honestly hate doing that. 

@race444

 Same. I hate it too. I’ll do more seasons tomorrow and see if the $100 parlay system is profitable on a longer scale.

System starts 1-0 for the year! Hurricane and Bruins win. 

Ready to have your mind blown? In sports betting, yield can be the best determining factor in how strong a system is. In essence, it's the amount of money won or lost in comparison to what is wagered, similar to ROI... but for amounts bet instead of invested (where you can't go negative like you can in betting).

So, what's the better system? 2 team parlay on road favorites, or $100 parlays on EVERY road favorite whenever there's 3 or more? The answer... OVERWHELMINGLY (so far, from 2009-2014 tracked) it is the $100 parlay system. Here's the details:

For what I am calling the "Double Parlay Road System", Dan's original idea of taking the strongest two road favorites every night, here's the math using a $140, $280, $420, $700, $1120, $1680, $2520, $3500 betting chase. The overall yield is -28.17%, and the system is up $19,139.38 through 2009-2014. Why is the yield negative? Because the amount risked to win this $19k is SO massive, that the yield is basically telling us that this is not a valuable approach, because a bad year or two can absolutely decimate the system. The amount required to risk, to win, would be considered unacceptable by most professional bettors. 

$243,740 risked. 

$175,081.69 paid out on winning parlays.

Why is the risked amount greater than the pay out? Because we are ONLY tracking payouts. On winning bets, we don't lose our original wager, we just gain the winnings.

For what I am calling the "Triple or Better Road Favorite Parlay System", you bet $100 and parlay ALL of the road favorites each night together, so long as there are 3 or more teams that meet the criteria. The overall yield? An astounding 17.03% from 2009-2014. The system would be up $11,580.72.

$31,600 risked

$36,980.61 paid out on winning parlays.

Remember, professional bettors consider anything between 4-10% yield to be a VERY strong system. 17% is... absolutely bonkers. It would've only averaged a couple thousand dollars a year or so... But once you're up 10k, it's probably time to double up on the wagers. You could lose 20 consecutive parlay attempts at $200 per play and lose 4k. (20 losses in a row do happen but not very often at all), and if you hit just a few 3 teamers in a row, you're right back to even (this also, seriously happens sometimes, 3 or 4 instances in a row of hitting 3 teamers or higher).

Here's the next two questions...

1) Does the triple or more system stay profitable if I run it through 2019.

2) Would baseball be even better? I remember you saying somewhere that bad teams in baseball lose WAY more often than in hockey.

First, my three team parlay hit last night (Dan's two strongest, then I added the third strongest). 

Second, this is blowing my mind. I did always think that the problem with Dan's system is how devastating a game 8 loss is and if your book limits you on how big you can bet on a two team parlay might limit you on even betting a game 8. A simple $100 on every road favorite makes your bets simpler, just bet $100 and you're done. Losing 20 days in a row is not fun, but hitting multiple days in a row would be hitting the afterburners. I'll start playing that system but at a fraction of a unit. 

Very interesting. 17% yield is PSCYHO. 

This could work for baseball, because there are only so many elite pitchers and the best teams have them. The bad teams usually have one good pitcher and then the rotation talent falls of a cliff, so bad teams rarely win 2 or 3 or 4 in a row. Conversely, good teams go on 4,5,6, even 10 game runs. Betting all road favorites could pay off. 

Mar 26, 2016 Saturday 2015 Bruins Maple Leafs away 0-1 2-0 1-0 3-1 -167 5.0 2 W U 0
Mar 26, 2016 Saturday 2015 Wild Avalanche away 0-0 2-0 2-0 4-0 -140 5.0 4 W U 0
Mar 26, 2016 Saturday 2015 Penguins Red Wings away 0-1 4-0 3-1 7-2 -110 5.0 5 W O 0
Mar 26, 2016 Saturday 2015 Panthers Lightning away 2-1 1-0 2-1 5-2 -105 5.0 3 W O 0
Mar 26, 2016 Saturday 2015 Islanders Hurricanes away 2-0 0-3 1-0 4-3 -115 5.0 1 W O 1
Mar 26, 2016 Saturday 2015 Ducks Senators away 0-1 0-2 3-0 4-3 -143 5.5 1 W O 1
Mar 26, 2016 Saturday 2015 Rangers Canadiens away 1-1 4-1 0-0 5-2 -150 5.5 3 W O 0
Mar 26, 2016 Saturday 2015 Blackhawks Flames away 0-0 2-1 2-0 4-1 -150 5.5 3 W U 0
Mar 26, 2016 Saturday 2015 Flyers Coyotes away 0-0 0-2 1-0 1-2 -124 5.0 -1 L U 0
Showing 1 to 9 of 9 entries

 

One game away from a 9 team parlay on this day. Flyers lost 1-2 to the Coyotes 

$100 9 teamer would pay out like $8-10K depending on odds. WHAT!?

You should open your own topic. It's very interesting...I looked at 2015 season and it's up +$2400 (11 W - 42 L), only 3 teamers except one 5-teamer win

@esposito10304

 I just finished the 2015 season and I'm showing 68 3 team or more parlays. It was a slightly losing season, net of -$1651.71.

9/68, winners were all only 3 team parlays that year sadly. I'm using killersports.com NHL query system.

Dans system on the other hand profited $15,728.59 that year using the betting increments I've laid out. It had 0 game 8 losses that year.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aSgGr0m_bjfbmEXtdxo2cOwEwhH3X6DKmhoP5mmUY4E/edit?usp=sharing

If you want to take a look at my sheet for that year.

What if you only play 3 top road dogs, $100 each day that qualifies? You miss out on t the 4-9 teamers but you minimize how open you are on those.

@arakias

 Strange...I think we've used different formulas. My search query was like that, for ex. march 26th you talked about.: 

date=20160326 and A and F

Panthers doesn't appear as Tampa is considered F (at home) at -115 (Panthers are -105 away)

Hmmmmm, I've been using:

date=20160326 and site=away and line <= -105

Lord, I don't even want to go back and redo all that lol... -105 seems to be a good separator! I mean, maybe it could be even better but holy hell I've been working on this for 2 or 3 days now lol.

@race444

 I don't think that would be better because the good years have 4 and 5 team hitters. The mediocre or losing years don't have them. Granted maybe they wouldn't be losing years if they weren't chasing 4+ team parlays. Not sure. I do know that this is winner over the long run so far.

Just finished 2016.

Dan's system goes +$17,023.20 with no game 8 losses.

3 Team + system goes +$1825.72.

Dan's system wagered $43,820.00.

The 3 Team + system wagered $5500.

The 2015 3 Team system finished slightly negative (-1500 or so), but the 16 season was winner again. Yield is now 8.32%. Of course if we go a few years without losing again the yield will be well over 10% again. Only 3 losings seasons so far for the 3 team + system, and one of those was -$87.35 lol, compared to 5 winning seasons. 

@esposito10304

 Sadly this means I've been running "Dan's System" with the -105 separator as well.. It has however been profitable regardless... Interesting.

@arakias

 Sorry, ahem 

Anyway, my numbers were wrong for 2015. Using "A and F" query, 2015 is +1326

2016 is +2620 (12W - 48L).

Note: if you play only 3-teamers, the net result is slightly better as if you play 4-5-6 etc. teamers (often losers but who knows ? a juicy 8 or 9 teamer can rule them all)

Sounds like I'm playing both systems LOL

@race444

 With Dan's there's no way I can afford $140 on game 1. I'm comfortable losing $3500 on a chase personally, so I need to do the math to figure out how to make my entire chase cost $3500 exactly, calculating my 1 unit off that. It's way less than $140 that's for sure. 

At $140 the entire chase costs like $11k. lol

@esposito10304

 I think I might just personally use any road team -105 or stronger... Seems to work for me on Dan's system and the parlay system... And one of these days, it'll hit a 9 teamer lol.

Putting my money where my mouth is tonight. Let's try this out!

Lets do it!!