NHL 2 Team road parlay system

@race444

 Did the math... if I take Dan's system down to $50 a unit, it makes the whole chase cost $3700.

I'm going to be doing that as well. So I got $50 on the Leafs/Caps parlay. Good luck tonight. 

That's where I start as well, I think we went to a game 7 last year but I haven't gotten to a game 8 yet. 

Penguins down 3-0 already! Jeez.

Wow 3-2 LOL

Come on Pens!

6 team parlay tomorrow?

@race444

 I hadn’t even looked yet, we got 6 road teams at -105 or better? Then yep!

And $100 on the two strongest ones.

There is great value playing 3-teams parlay, only when you got 3 favorites (i.e. not playing 3 "best" favorites).  30 bets a year, and for 2015-2017, net result is 68.77 for 93 invested.

On the same time, if you bet 4, 5 and more parlays, net result is 70.21 but for 166 invested and with more risk of long cold streaks.

@esposito10304

 Nicely done... Sounds like some solid yield there.

 2018-2019 was a bad year for 3-team, slightly negative (-4.52), but it hit two 5-teams and one 4-teams in 3 days... so...I don't know if it's wise to play 4+ parlays. Up to everyone. I may be doing it, for not having regrets afterwards.

2015-2019 (4 seasons, with "A and F" query):

3-teams: invest 129, Net 64.25 (yield 49.8%)

4-teams: invest 61, Net -14.68 (-24%)

5 teams: invest 41, Net 52.78 (129%)

6-teams: invest 4, Net -4 (-100%)

8-team: invest 1, net -1 (-100%)

Overall: Invest 236, net 97.35 (41,25%)

@esposito10304

 Esposito would you be up for sharing that sheet, or sheets? I've done the sheets for 2009-2016 and would be happy to share. It'd be nice to have all the data available to look at. I'm going to go back and change my query to match yours.

And I agree, I think I'll play the 4+ teamers just to not be annoyed and regret it when I don't, if the difference is relatively small. Takes one 8 or 9 teamer to heavily skew the entire thing back in the favor of playing them.

The argument I could see for ONLY playing 3 teamers... is you could bet more. Say, $300 a shot instead of $100 because your plays are more limited. Tough call. The action junkie in me prefers playing them all for less... the desire to win in me says play fewer for bigger money.

@arakias

  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KUs-69kUO8ohwj1pi3Pt64nfVXENh2dC5pAEqDyGG84/edit?usp=sharing 

@esposito10304

 You rock. Re-doing mine now with "F" instead of line >= -105.

Didn't change anything in 2009 for the triple parlay system, but I'm sure I'll hit a year where it does.

Mine are in individual sheets per year but I'm message them to you if you want.

Or just post a link to each here. Whatever works. Just let me know if you want them. I think we need to do baseball next :D

Can confirm, setting query results to F are better than >= -105.

At first, I was losing some of my previous "3 game wins" by removing the -105 plays. But... it also results in turning some 4 and 5 game losses, into 3 and 4 game wins instead. 

Overall, profits went from $11,754.73 to $14,334.04.

Yield went from 8.32% to 17.02%.

Total amount wagered dropped from $43,900 to $38,400. Total amount of winnings dropped from $47,554.64 to $44,934.04.

Even though our "winnings" went down, our net profit went up, as well as our yield, because we played so many fewer games.

This is for all seasons from the 2009-2010 season, through the 2016-2017 season.

I believe if I go back and do this for Dan's system, it would have similar effects, making his system stronger than I previously thought... But I need to go back and redo those sheets as well. Either later today, or early tomorrow.

I'm locked in for tonight...

Wouldn't Dan's system for today be TOR and CAR?

Great work on all of this you guys!

Oh, yeah you're right I messed that one up :(

You can still play it.

Damn Bruins ruined our 6 teamer. 

Guess I have time to put that in as my game 3.. lol. Since the Bruins lost already. 

Game 2 lost today and no game tomorrow as there aren't 2 road favorites.

I realize the problem we're going to run in to: postponed or canceled games. If a strong road favorite has a canceled or postponed game we'll have to go with a weaker choice and that won't be loyal to they system or the back testing data.

And with the "all road favorites" system, the ppd/canceled games will limit our payouts. 

I might stop once we win a chase, or reduce my units. 

All right, some last numbers for you guys, for the last 5 seasons (2015/10 to 2020/03, 1 unit per bet)

1) days with only 3 road F : invest 150, net 87.18 (58.12%)

2) 3-teams and more : invest 285, net 109.51 (38.42%)

3) 3 HIGHEST favorites only: invest 285, net 103.44 (36.29%)

If you want to maintain good return but with a little more action, you can play 1u on 4+parlay and more on 3-teams

@esposito10304

Number 3, are you saying on days with 5 road favorites, taking only the top 3? Or just the 3 "strongest" road teams period, even if they were dogs? This was something that had crossed my mind.

@BlueStar57

 Yeah, that's what we're doing.

We've added a 3 team (or more) road favorite parlay system because we've back tested it over a decade and it is massively profitable. Higher yield than Dan's system. They're both winners over the long run.

@arakias

 number 3 is playing the "biggest" favorites, whether there are 4, 5, 6 or more favorites. But numbers are not that good, as you see.

@esposito10304

 Thanks for explaining that and figuring it out. 

Second day of this season was only 3 road favs and they all won. I like your idea of playing Dan's system and then on the random days when it's only 3 road fav totals, going a bit bigger.