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NHL 2 Team road parlay system

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Captain
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Posted: #1451

Thursday, game 6, STL -129 and Calgary -130, $120 to win $256.89

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #1452
We should win this game 7. I think we have better favorites today than tomorrow.  What u guys thinks? More likely play today is was and col
 
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Posted: #1453
Quote Originally Posted by Kidmancer:

We should win this game 7. I think we have better favorites today than tomorrow.  What u guys thinks? More likely play today is was and col

really dont want the blues two nights in a row. Washington columbus looks good tho
 
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Posted: #1454
Friday: Game 7, Wash -125 and Columbus -120, $180 to,win $414
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Posted: #1455
is the washington game locked for anyone else on bovada right now?
 
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Posted: #1456
san jose -125 now
 
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Posted: #1457
Quote Originally Posted by confucius1:

san jose -125 now


SJ -110 at 5Dimes and most offshore books. Sticking with my original play. My bet is in when I post unless noted.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #1458
 
 
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Posted: #1459
Marvelous!!
 
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Posted: #1460
Boooom!!!  Well done!! 
 
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Posted: #1461

Friday RESULTS: Game 7, Wash -125 and Columbus -120, $180 to,win $414 - WINNER!!


Original Bankroll - $740

Current Bankroll - $1,492.41 ($752.41 gain, 101.6% gain on bankroll)

Since posting in 2014-2015 season

Overall 99-1 (+$3,210.20)

  • Game 1  32-68
  • Game 2  18-50
  • Game 3  19-31
  • Game 4  10-21
  • Game 5   3-18
  • Game 6   9-9
  • Game 7   4-5
  • Game 8   4-1
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Prospect
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Posted: #1462
 
Prospect
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Posted: #1463

Hi Dan, I’ve been following this thread since the beginning of this NHL season and would first of all like to thank you for your work. The system definitely has legs and is obviously profitable. I play your system on the NHL and have adjusted it for soccer. The soccer system performs quite a bit better, but what I’ve found out is, it’s not the actually system, sport or the strategy behind the system, it’s the money management I use while betting soccer.

 I do not wan’t to reinvent your wheel and understand that you might feel very, very comfortable with your system but the 12 step money management system can and (in my opinion) should be refined. Rather than sticking to a fixed unit size per leg of the chase, you should look in to calculating the exact amount of units you bet for in each leg of the chase. Odds vary day in and day out, on a good day, a parlay might have odds well over +400 on a day where your away favorites are very strong, you might only get something around +300. The odds are set for a reason and they are pretty close to where they should be (that’s why the books make money), why not use them to your advantage and be more precise with your unit sizes?


Here’s an example:

Bet A)                   Team X -110 and Team Y +130

 Your odds are +340. Why not risk (.30 units) to win 1 unit.

Then on game B, risk X amount of units in order to win your initial bet plus your target (1 unit) which is 1.30 units.

Bet B)                   Team X -130 and Team Y +110

Your odds are +272. Risk .48 units to win 1.30 units


Do the math and let me know what you think. You’d be surprised at how much more money you would’ve been able to make, if you calculate your total projected risk over an 8 game chase…



 
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Posted: #1464
Dan nice hit!



TT nice to see you over here...in regards to your post above, when Dan's strategy wins he is picking up more than 1U in profits, that is if your X value is set at 1 unit.  For example with last nights win I picked up 11units or 11 times my X value.  Not sure how your math plays out but I'd be interested to see the breakdown.  
 
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Posted: #1465
Hi Oil, thanks for having me. That other place can get annoying. I hope people are a bit more civilized here...

I'll attempt to explain:

Assuming we start our chase, using the my money management system and our target profit is 1 unit, we would need to risk the following, that is if we get odds at +356 throughout the entire chase. I'll use +356 because those are the "average odds" I see this system getting. Anyway, here are the numbers:

Leg Units at Risk Target Profit Total Units Risked
1) 0.39 1.00 0.39
2) 0.54 1.39 0.93
3) 0.76 1.93 1.69
4) 1.05 2.69 2.74
5) 1.46 3.74 4.20
6) 2.03 5.20 6.23
7) 2.83 7.23 9.06
8) 3.93 10.06 12.99

So after a successful chase, no matter at which stage of it, your profit will be 1.00 unit. The beauty about this system is, you have pretty much zero "slack" and bearing your chase's odds average at +356, your max chase will only cost you 13 units. Therefore you can actually bet for 3.5% of BR, because your max lass after 8 bets would be 50% of BR. With a 99-1 record, you would be up 296.5%.

This is what the OP's money management system looks like after an 8 game chase:

Leg Units at Risk Target Profit Total Units Risked
1) 1 2.56 1
2) 2 4.12 3
3) 3 4.68 6
4) 5 6.8 11
5) 8 9.48 19
6) 12 11.72 31
7) 18 15.08 49
8) 25 15.00 74

So when a chase goes to leg 8, you've risked a total of 74 units.

I hope this makes sense...

 
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Posted: #1466
TT you math makes sense but i think risking 13 units to only win 1 would be disappointing for most in this thread... yes dan system asks to risk much more than 13 but over the course of a week you are able to come away with a lot more than 1 unit.. in this case $10

appreciate you analysis and I'm thinking about how i can apply it to other betting systems (especially ones where the payout on a potential win is very high) but i doubt dan will want to change his winning strategy 
 
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Posted: #1467
Hi TT, thanks for the well thought out posts. I fully understand what you are saying and have thought of doing something very similar. My thought was to try and win 1 unit per day, meaning if the chase went to game 3 we would wager enough to cover the two previous losses plus 3 units. If it went to game 4, losses plus 4 units. 

One question on your example. Are you saying to set unit size at 3.5% of bankroll? Then with your example if we lost an 8 game chase we would lose 50% of bankroll. Whereas in my 8 game chase we would lose 100% of original bankroll. 
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #1468
No, you use two separate BR's, so your loss would also be 50%.

So by risking $5 with +3.56 odds, your profit is $18.25, which is "only" 2.5% of BR1 ($740), but if you take both BR's in to account it is only 1.23%. I'm sure you see where I'm going with this.

Assuming today's two picks are the Penguins and Predators, the parlay odds would be around +169, this is a great example of two very strong away team fav's. In this case, I would risk 2.07 units.
 
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Posted: #1469
Quote Originally Posted by smurph_daddy:

TT you math makes sense but i think risking 13 units to only win 1 would be disappointing for most in this thread... yes dan system asks to risk much more than 13 but over the course of a week you are able to come away with a lot more than 1 unit.. in this case $10

appreciate you analysis and I'm thinking about how i can apply it to other betting systems (especially ones where the payout on a potential win is very high) but i doubt dan will want to change his winning strategy 

Try to forget units and think in % of Bankroll at risk. It should make sense then. I know, it's a completely different approach but this is how 99.9% of successful FX and stock traders manage their BR.
 
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Posted: #1470
I think your average odds is way off. +3.56 odds would mean either 2 dogs or a significant dog and a low fave. We do not have many dogs in this system. Even money parlay would be +3 odds 
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Posted: #1471
Looking at that now. Do you know what your average profit is on a 8 game chase? I have you down 4 units with +280 odds over 8 games (74 total units risked).

Running an avg of +280 odds, has an 8 game chase in minus. You could be correct, but even using +280 odds, the proposed MM system is still more profitable.

With +280 odds, I would then risk to win "only" 2%" of BR and the system would then be +149% (150 units) going 99-1. Yes, that does seem more realistic. Thanks for pointing that out!!
 
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Posted: #1472
Thanks for the reply. Let me run some numbers and tests and see what I come up with. I like the idea in general, I just want to see how it would have played out. 

Always on the lookout to improve a system and agree wholeheartedly about money management. 
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #1473
On another note, you mention +149% (150 units) for going 99-1. That is our records over 3 years, the first of which we were using $5 as the starting unit, switching to $10 for last year and this. Even at $10 for all 3 years we are up 321 units. We are up 75 units so far this year. 
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Posted: #1474
are pitt and nash the plays for today? they seem to be the highest road odds by far
 
 
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Posted: #1475

Saturday, Game 1, Pitt -130 and Nash -185, $10 to win $17.26

I considered taking Nash -1.5 PL but Arizona has only lost 1 time all year at home by more than 1 goal. I'll just be conservative on this one.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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