Expert, I've been following your thread since the start of December and it's been a GREAT NHL system.
I'm a little confused on your picks for today.
You are selecting Boston over Carolina even though Carolina had
a Top 16 home record from last season. Are you changing your picks to use the current season home team records? If you are then why are you selecting Dallas over Anaheim since Dallas is a current season bottom 8 but an original Top 16? Confused!
Also, Phoenix over LA. Phoenix is a bottom 8 from last season.
Is there something that I'm missing?
Keep up the good work!!!
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Expert, I've been following your thread since the start of December and it's been a GREAT NHL system.
I'm a little confused on your picks for today.
You are selecting Boston over Carolina even though Carolina had
a Top 16 home record from last season. Are you changing your picks to use the current season home team records? If you are then why are you selecting Dallas over Anaheim since Dallas is a current season bottom 8 but an original Top 16? Confused!
Also, Phoenix over LA. Phoenix is a bottom 8 from last season.
Expert, I've been following your thread since the start of December and it's been a GREAT NHL system.
I'm a little confused on your picks for today.
You are selecting Boston over Carolina even though Carolina had
a Top 16 home record from last season. Are you changing your picks to use the current season home team records? If you are then why are you selecting Dallas over Anaheim since Dallas is a current season bottom 8 but an original Top 16? Confused!
Also, Phoenix over LA. Phoenix is a bottom 8 from last season.
Is there something that I'm missing?
Keep up the good work!!!
0
Expert, I've been following your thread since the start of December and it's been a GREAT NHL system.
I'm a little confused on your picks for today.
You are selecting Boston over Carolina even though Carolina had
a Top 16 home record from last season. Are you changing your picks to use the current season home team records? If you are then why are you selecting Dallas over Anaheim since Dallas is a current season bottom 8 but an original Top 16? Confused!
Also, Phoenix over LA. Phoenix is a bottom 8 from last season.
You have thrown me a gigantic curveball. Zags asked why your 12/27 picks are not following the "chase" system and you responded that you use handicapping??? Should we stay with the chase system or not? Clearly, your 12/27 picks were good, but nowhere near the chase system.
Help!!!!
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Expert,
You have thrown me a gigantic curveball. Zags asked why your 12/27 picks are not following the "chase" system and you responded that you use handicapping??? Should we stay with the chase system or not? Clearly, your 12/27 picks were good, but nowhere near the chase system.
You are selecting Boston over Carolina even though Carolina had
a Top 16 home record from last season. Are you changing your picks to use the current season home team records? If you are then why are you selecting Dallas over Anaheim since Dallas is a current season bottom 8 but an original Top 16? Confused!
Also, Phoenix over LA. Phoenix is a bottom 8 from last season.
Is there something that I'm missing?
Guys, you gotta keep in mind expert is adjusting this list with the current NHL standings. Basically, take this list of teams and consider strongly fading them when they play at home (also look at their last 10 games):
TB + EDM + ATL + NYI + TOR + STL + CAR + FLO
But, also keep in mind that any other team who, for example, loses their #1 goalie or scorer could be considered as a fade when at home based on strong trends.
This is why it's a mix of handicapping and system strategy. You could also just plainly set yourself a strict list of teams to fade and try it out. So far, it's been going good although the Rangers might be getting a bit too sloppy at home.
Also, how could you bet for Caroline when playing against the hottest team in the NHL. It would make no sense to fade Boston. Sometimes it does not work out as great like with San Jose ( -0.5 is not a puck line but a regulation line ).
Of course, this makes it somewhat harder to track as there won't be strict rules about who to fade or not but let's keep things rolling like this. How about we count all expert's plays he posts as the ones representing the system plays. That way there is no ambiguity.
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Quote Originally Posted by zags:
I'm a little confused on your picks for today.
You are selecting Boston over Carolina even though Carolina had
a Top 16 home record from last season. Are you changing your picks to use the current season home team records? If you are then why are you selecting Dallas over Anaheim since Dallas is a current season bottom 8 but an original Top 16? Confused!
Also, Phoenix over LA. Phoenix is a bottom 8 from last season.
Is there something that I'm missing?
Guys, you gotta keep in mind expert is adjusting this list with the current NHL standings. Basically, take this list of teams and consider strongly fading them when they play at home (also look at their last 10 games):
TB + EDM + ATL + NYI + TOR + STL + CAR + FLO
But, also keep in mind that any other team who, for example, loses their #1 goalie or scorer could be considered as a fade when at home based on strong trends.
This is why it's a mix of handicapping and system strategy. You could also just plainly set yourself a strict list of teams to fade and try it out. So far, it's been going good although the Rangers might be getting a bit too sloppy at home.
Also, how could you bet for Caroline when playing against the hottest team in the NHL. It would make no sense to fade Boston. Sometimes it does not work out as great like with San Jose ( -0.5 is not a puck line but a regulation line ).
Of course, this makes it somewhat harder to track as there won't be strict rules about who to fade or not but let's keep things rolling like this. How about we count all expert's plays he posts as the ones representing the system plays. That way there is no ambiguity.
You are looking at each game; however, the chase system looks at a 3-game progession series. If the posted record of the chase system is 40-1, why not stay with it, even though one game of the progression may look like a bad handicap game?
Sometimes, we gamblers over-handicap. What is wrong with a 40-1 system record?
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You are looking at each game; however, the chase system looks at a 3-game progession series. If the posted record of the chase system is 40-1, why not stay with it, even though one game of the progression may look like a bad handicap game?
Sometimes, we gamblers over-handicap. What is wrong with a 40-1 system record?
We have 2 wins last night making our system 62-1 WE are chasing Vancouver, St Louis, NY Rangers, Phoenix Todays games Ottawa Vancouver -184 high odds so try the puck line -1/2 at 5 dimes dot com
Anaheim -124 play this team it is the stronger one St Louis
Good luck
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We have 2 wins last night making our system 62-1 WE are chasing Vancouver, St Louis, NY Rangers, Phoenix Todays games Ottawa Vancouver -184 high odds so try the puck line -1/2 at 5 dimes dot com
Anaheim -124 play this team it is the stronger one St Louis
You are looking at each game; however, the chase system looks at a 3-game progession series. If the posted record of the chase system is 40-1, why not stay with it, even though one game of the progression may look like a bad handicap game?
Sometimes, we gamblers over-handicap. What is wrong with a 40-1 system record?
You are overlooking one simple fact though. The only reason it was straight-forward to start off 40 - 1 with strict system rules was because it was the only way to get started. How else can you handicap when the season is only starting. So, it made sense to start off with parameters that were "inspired" by last year's standings but now that we are way into this season, adjustments need to be made. I don't think this is a case of over-handicapping.
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Quote Originally Posted by mudshark:
You are looking at each game; however, the chase system looks at a 3-game progession series. If the posted record of the chase system is 40-1, why not stay with it, even though one game of the progression may look like a bad handicap game?
Sometimes, we gamblers over-handicap. What is wrong with a 40-1 system record?
You are overlooking one simple fact though. The only reason it was straight-forward to start off 40 - 1 with strict system rules was because it was the only way to get started. How else can you handicap when the season is only starting. So, it made sense to start off with parameters that were "inspired" by last year's standings but now that we are way into this season, adjustments need to be made. I don't think this is a case of over-handicapping.
You are overlooking one simple fact though. The only reason it was straight-forward to start off 40 - 1 with strict system rules was because it was the only way to get started. How else can you handicap when the season is only starting. So, it made sense to start off with parameters that were "inspired" by last year's standings but now that we are way into this season, adjustments need to be made. I don't think this is a case of over-handicapping.
So how are we determining the teams to fade? Are we using the current season home records and adjusting every day? week? month?
The original 3 home game chase is also 62-1. And the chase is currently on NY Rangers, Vancouver, Carolina, St Louis.
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Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:
You are overlooking one simple fact though. The only reason it was straight-forward to start off 40 - 1 with strict system rules was because it was the only way to get started. How else can you handicap when the season is only starting. So, it made sense to start off with parameters that were "inspired" by last year's standings but now that we are way into this season, adjustments need to be made. I don't think this is a case of over-handicapping.
So how are we determining the teams to fade? Are we using the current season home records and adjusting every day? week? month?
The original 3 home game chase is also 62-1. And the chase is currently on NY Rangers, Vancouver, Carolina, St Louis.
Handicapping must be considered to keep a good record.
Injuries and key player changes are the factors most likely to affect the outcome of a game.
When this thread started I went through last year's performance of each team to see when and what caused a change.
Definite changes occurred last year around the christmas season and into January and the last month of the regular season.
Goalie injuries were key, as well as, first line injuries, top defenceman injuries, high scorer injuries or a player who has the highest minutes played per game.
Fantastic performance so far !!! By the by- Over-handicapping is like having too many women; no such thing!
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You guys are on the right path.
Handicapping must be considered to keep a good record.
Injuries and key player changes are the factors most likely to affect the outcome of a game.
When this thread started I went through last year's performance of each team to see when and what caused a change.
Definite changes occurred last year around the christmas season and into January and the last month of the regular season.
Goalie injuries were key, as well as, first line injuries, top defenceman injuries, high scorer injuries or a player who has the highest minutes played per game.
Fantastic performance so far !!! By the by- Over-handicapping is like having too many women; no such thing!
Big thanks to SRTZTEE, expertcapper and elithepunk for starting and keeping this thread and the overtime spoiler thread going.... I can tell any newbies that both systems have been quite successful so far, especially when tempered with some personal filters...
For instance, I try to only play 4g or longer home stands unless it's a top team (SJ, Det, Bos... etc.) and I typically raise my initial bets for those top teams as I don't expect the chase to reach the third game... where I keep it low for say a CBJ or TB home stand anticipating I will have to double up a couple times to hit that win later....
THis isn't a criticism, just where I feel comfortable, I encourage others to find their twists to maximize this strat... Thanks guys!
Your WELCOME!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quote Originally Posted by krispy76:
Big thanks to SRTZTEE, expertcapper and elithepunk for starting and keeping this thread and the overtime spoiler thread going.... I can tell any newbies that both systems have been quite successful so far, especially when tempered with some personal filters...
For instance, I try to only play 4g or longer home stands unless it's a top team (SJ, Det, Bos... etc.) and I typically raise my initial bets for those top teams as I don't expect the chase to reach the third game... where I keep it low for say a CBJ or TB home stand anticipating I will have to double up a couple times to hit that win later....
THis isn't a criticism, just where I feel comfortable, I encourage others to find their twists to maximize this strat... Thanks guys!
hey guys, just been reading about the system and from the record it looks great. I've also looked if we can use this in the NBA and from previous results, I think we def can. The only thing that to make money with this system like many of you said is, you have to have the money to be able to chase.
I did have 1 question for you guys. Lets say for example NYR are on a 3 game homestand and are in the top 16 home record teams. They play their first home game, and they end up winning. Now do you still follow them onto game 2?
Thanks for all the help.
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hey guys, just been reading about the system and from the record it looks great. I've also looked if we can use this in the NBA and from previous results, I think we def can. The only thing that to make money with this system like many of you said is, you have to have the money to be able to chase.
I did have 1 question for you guys. Lets say for example NYR are on a 3 game homestand and are in the top 16 home record teams. They play their first home game, and they end up winning. Now do you still follow them onto game 2?
hey guys, just been reading about the system and from the record it looks great. I've also looked if we can use this in the NBA and from previous results, I think we def can. The only thing that to make money with this system like many of you said is, you have to have the money to be able to chase.
I did have 1 question for you guys. Lets say for example NYR are on a 3 game homestand and are in the top 16 home record teams. They play their first home game, and they end up winning. Now do you still follow them onto game 2?
Thanks for all the help.
I don't think the others are around, so I'll field this one for you. Once a team has won during it's homestand, then the chase is over for them.
So, if the Rangers win game one of a 3 game homestand, you mark it as a win, and since you have no lost units to chase, then you would not bet on the Rangers in games 2 or 3 of their homestand.
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Quote Originally Posted by ilfz:
hey guys, just been reading about the system and from the record it looks great. I've also looked if we can use this in the NBA and from previous results, I think we def can. The only thing that to make money with this system like many of you said is, you have to have the money to be able to chase.
I did have 1 question for you guys. Lets say for example NYR are on a 3 game homestand and are in the top 16 home record teams. They play their first home game, and they end up winning. Now do you still follow them onto game 2?
Thanks for all the help.
I don't think the others are around, so I'll field this one for you. Once a team has won during it's homestand, then the chase is over for them.
So, if the Rangers win game one of a 3 game homestand, you mark it as a win, and since you have no lost units to chase, then you would not bet on the Rangers in games 2 or 3 of their homestand.
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2-1 Islanders after 2.
WOW! Thanks guys!
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