Ok, so you basically have a line and you know how much you want to win. Simply use the following formula to figure out how much is your bet for each game (don't include negative sign in formula for negative odds):
amount to win = stake x (100 / line)
In your example, you are chasing to win 80$ right?
so game 1 = > 80 = stake x ( 100 /125)
which gives stake = 100$ like you said you wanted to risk
now we need to chase this loss on GAME 2 where the line is -170
By chasing, I mean you need to recuperate the losses encountered previously ( 100$) and you also want to win your 80$.
so game 2 = > 180 = stake x (100/170)
which gives stake = 306$
If you lose game 2 also, then your amount to win will be ( 100 + 306 + 80 ) which you plug into the formula to figure out the amount (stake) you'll have to risk.
Also known as a simple martingale.
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don't worry about asking questions
thats why people lurk in this forum
Ok, so you basically have a line and you know how much you want to win. Simply use the following formula to figure out how much is your bet for each game (don't include negative sign in formula for negative odds):
amount to win = stake x (100 / line)
In your example, you are chasing to win 80$ right?
so game 1 = > 80 = stake x ( 100 /125)
which gives stake = 100$ like you said you wanted to risk
now we need to chase this loss on GAME 2 where the line is -170
By chasing, I mean you need to recuperate the losses encountered previously ( 100$) and you also want to win your 80$.
so game 2 = > 180 = stake x (100/170)
which gives stake = 306$
If you lose game 2 also, then your amount to win will be ( 100 + 306 + 80 ) which you plug into the formula to figure out the amount (stake) you'll have to risk.
Here is some other help Mgutmans02 what ever you want to win go to matchbook dot com go into hockey and it has a calculator if you click on the hockey game you want it automatically adds in for you what to play for the amount you want to win. Hope this helps
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Here is some other help Mgutmans02 what ever you want to win go to matchbook dot com go into hockey and it has a calculator if you click on the hockey game you want it automatically adds in for you what to play for the amount you want to win. Hope this helps
Wow what a night Minnesota comes through on the second game and Ottawa smokes Atlanta making our record 44-0 thats pretty impressive with Carolina playing there 2nd game tomorrow against Pittsburgh 2-0 for the night Final Atlanta 1 Ottawa 5
Final St. Louis 0 Minnesota 4 2nd game
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Wow what a night Minnesota comes through on the second game and Ottawa smokes Atlanta making our record 44-0 thats pretty impressive with Carolina playing there 2nd game tomorrow against Pittsburgh 2-0 for the night Final Atlanta 1 Ottawa 5
Nice, so Minny closes out the series on their 2nd game. Now we need Carolina to do the same by beating the Penguins. Not an easy task I must say.
What a ridiculous line the books have set up for Carolina. I got -131 at Pinnacle this mourning which is insane. That's the risk in playing with the home team. Always a tendency to become favorites.
Expertcapper, have you decided on what criteria you'll be using to decide whether or not to fade a team?
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Nice, so Minny closes out the series on their 2nd game. Now we need Carolina to do the same by beating the Penguins. Not an easy task I must say.
What a ridiculous line the books have set up for Carolina. I got -131 at Pinnacle this mourning which is insane. That's the risk in playing with the home team. Always a tendency to become favorites.
Expertcapper, have you decided on what criteria you'll be using to decide whether or not to fade a team?
We fade a team on how good their home record is and Carolina is one of the top teams of last year. this year they are 6-7 so this is an interesting variation but Carolina is known to win at home against the Penguins, Carolina goalie has lost his last 3 games Ward is hurt, we started with playing Carolina to win at home so we are going to continue playing that way. Any thoughts on this elithepunk? I got carolina anywhere from -126 to -135
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We fade a team on how good their home record is and Carolina is one of the top teams of last year. this year they are 6-7 so this is an interesting variation but Carolina is known to win at home against the Penguins, Carolina goalie has lost his last 3 games Ward is hurt, we started with playing Carolina to win at home so we are going to continue playing that way. Any thoughts on this elithepunk? I got carolina anywhere from -126 to -135
No, I wasn't referring to Carolina specifically when I was talking about fading teams. I was wondering if you had decided what filter to use when deciding which teams you will fade at home.
Sticking to the list at the top of this thread or changing it to include Dallas and Edmonton instead of LA and Phoenix who are no longer in the bottom 8 as of right now ?
As for Carolina, I think it's the right play but what I find crazy is that the Canes are being favored this much just because they're at home. This is why it might hurt if Pittsburgh wins it.
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No, I wasn't referring to Carolina specifically when I was talking about fading teams. I was wondering if you had decided what filter to use when deciding which teams you will fade at home.
Sticking to the list at the top of this thread or changing it to include Dallas and Edmonton instead of LA and Phoenix who are no longer in the bottom 8 as of right now ?
As for Carolina, I think it's the right play but what I find crazy is that the Canes are being favored this much just because they're at home. This is why it might hurt if Pittsburgh wins it.
I think we should pay attention to the current bottom 8 at the time of the home chase system which on the 5th we would probably fade Dallas because they have not fared well at home and chase the other team they are playing. In other words play the visitor now looking ahead in the Dallas chase system I know its already won by one of the visitors, so lets play the visitor. We could also include of how well they have fared in the past which Dallas has struggled GO CAROLINA
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I think we should pay attention to the current bottom 8 at the time of the home chase system which on the 5th we would probably fade Dallas because they have not fared well at home and chase the other team they are playing. In other words play the visitor now looking ahead in the Dallas chase system I know its already won by one of the visitors, so lets play the visitor. We could also include of how well they have fared in the past which Dallas has struggled GO CAROLINA
Also note that if you see a team that is on last years bottom 8 and it comes to where they have a home chase series always watch for if the away team is favored thats meaning that the road team is the stronger team. I have watched this in the past and have done very well with this. Example tomorrow night Calgary is facing St. Louis and Calgary is already favored. Thats a very good sign. Hope this helps, thanks for enjoying and sharing the thread. Any feedback that can be helpful to this system will help a lot.
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Also note that if you see a team that is on last years bottom 8 and it comes to where they have a home chase series always watch for if the away team is favored thats meaning that the road team is the stronger team. I have watched this in the past and have done very well with this. Example tomorrow night Calgary is facing St. Louis and Calgary is already favored. Thats a very good sign. Hope this helps, thanks for enjoying and sharing the thread. Any feedback that can be helpful to this system will help a lot.
I think the line on Carolina is high because other people are playing this system. There isn't that much money being bet on hockey, so when a significant amount of it is chasing home teams, the line may get skewed.
BTW: I'm chasing all teams that play 4 games in a row at home - so far only loss is 9.3 units chasing LA. Up about 12 units on the year.
Question about this system: how do you know who the bad home teams are early in the season? Tampa Bay dropped their first 3 home games of the year. Did you wait a month?
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I think the line on Carolina is high because other people are playing this system. There isn't that much money being bet on hockey, so when a significant amount of it is chasing home teams, the line may get skewed.
BTW: I'm chasing all teams that play 4 games in a row at home - so far only loss is 9.3 units chasing LA. Up about 12 units on the year.
Question about this system: how do you know who the bad home teams are early in the season? Tampa Bay dropped their first 3 home games of the year. Did you wait a month?
Unlucky187 - It's as simple as taking the worst home teams (based on their records) of the previous season. As expertcapper wrote on the first post:
Bottom 8 Home Records LA, PHO, STL, TB, ATL, FLO, TOR, NYI
So, having taken this into account from the beginning of the season, you would have faded Tampa Bay and Los Angeles which would have won you a unit on each first home game since they both lost.
What is crucial now is to adapt this list as the season progresses. It's still pretty efficient with 6 of the 8 teams still in the bottom 8 as of now. But, we'll have to take into account teams like Dallas and Edmonton who are not as impressive at home this season.
And, you are probably right about the line for Carolina. Even though the hockey market is somewhat active, this system (and the variations) has to be one of the most popular ones so people might be pounding Carolina even though it might not be the best value tonight.
BOL with your strategy .
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Unlucky187 - It's as simple as taking the worst home teams (based on their records) of the previous season. As expertcapper wrote on the first post:
Bottom 8 Home Records LA, PHO, STL, TB, ATL, FLO, TOR, NYI
So, having taken this into account from the beginning of the season, you would have faded Tampa Bay and Los Angeles which would have won you a unit on each first home game since they both lost.
What is crucial now is to adapt this list as the season progresses. It's still pretty efficient with 6 of the 8 teams still in the bottom 8 as of now. But, we'll have to take into account teams like Dallas and Edmonton who are not as impressive at home this season.
And, you are probably right about the line for Carolina. Even though the hockey market is somewhat active, this system (and the variations) has to be one of the most popular ones so people might be pounding Carolina even though it might not be the best value tonight.
Tonight Carolina did not fare very well but that is the decision we made when we took Carolina. We are chasing Carolina on December 6 against Philadelphia so hope that falls through then.
Final Pitt 5 Carolina 2
We are going to play our next selection which is Dallas and St. Louis, which are 2 of the bottom home teams so we play on the road team
December 5 Colorado Dallas -130
Calgary -125 St. Louis Good luck as always !!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Tonight Carolina did not fare very well but that is the decision we made when we took Carolina. We are chasing Carolina on December 6 against Philadelphia so hope that falls through then.
Final Pitt 5 Carolina 2
We are going to play our next selection which is Dallas and St. Louis, which are 2 of the bottom home teams so we play on the road team
December 5 Colorado Dallas -130
Calgary -125 St. Louis Good luck as always !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Can't wait to see how the reverse strategy will work when fading those horrible home teams. Will be very interesting to see how that works out. Might even have to jump on it .
Carolina has a much better chance against Philly then again, what kind of line will they have if they were the clear favorite against Pittsburgh.
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Can't wait to see how the reverse strategy will work when fading those horrible home teams. Will be very interesting to see how that works out. Might even have to jump on it .
Carolina has a much better chance against Philly then again, what kind of line will they have if they were the clear favorite against Pittsburgh.
This reverse strategy has one winner tonight like I was saying before they have Calgary favored so that is the stronger team if you were to bet on one team tonight it would be Calgary. I have a gut feeling that Carolina is going to lose their 3rd game on December 6 but we are sticking to our original plan when we stick with the home chase for the 3 games and 4 if needed. The road team has won the last 5 meetings. Now Carolina is 6-8 at home below 500 so I might decide something else because they are below 500 on December 6. When we first started they were 6-6 at home. WE also need to take in consideration that Ward is hurt also.
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This reverse strategy has one winner tonight like I was saying before they have Calgary favored so that is the stronger team if you were to bet on one team tonight it would be Calgary. I have a gut feeling that Carolina is going to lose their 3rd game on December 6 but we are sticking to our original plan when we stick with the home chase for the 3 games and 4 if needed. The road team has won the last 5 meetings. Now Carolina is 6-8 at home below 500 so I might decide something else because they are below 500 on December 6. When we first started they were 6-6 at home. WE also need to take in consideration that Ward is hurt also.
Oh , so you are sticking with the list in your first post of the thread ?
only these teams will be faded ?
Bottom 8 Home Records LA, PHO, STL, TB, ATL, FLO, TOR, NYI
I just noticed that you were playing Dallas at home since they are not in this list. Sorry , had thought you were updating the list to the current bottom 8.
Also, I completely agree with your last post. You have to make it a dynamic system where your filter adapts to different scenarios. A perfect example is Carolina as you point out. The team is close to having a losing home record and their #1 goalie is injured. You'll have to consider fading them if they lose.
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Oh , so you are sticking with the list in your first post of the thread ?
only these teams will be faded ?
Bottom 8 Home Records LA, PHO, STL, TB, ATL, FLO, TOR, NYI
I just noticed that you were playing Dallas at home since they are not in this list. Sorry , had thought you were updating the list to the current bottom 8.
Also, I completely agree with your last post. You have to make it a dynamic system where your filter adapts to different scenarios. A perfect example is Carolina as you point out. The team is close to having a losing home record and their #1 goalie is injured. You'll have to consider fading them if they lose.
no, I am taking Colorado to win, so I am fading Dallas tonight and St. Louis hope I did not confuse you Eli.
Oh , ok , my bad, I was looking at this:
December 5 Colorado Dallas -130
Calgary -125 St. Louis
And thought that putting the line beside the team was your way of showing who the play is on. It might be better just to bold the team and include the line at which you bet the game.
BTW, I think it's an excellent idea to update the bottom 8 home teams to reflect how teams are playing this season. Even though Colorado is not doing great, you still get them as an underdog so it's worthwhile.
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Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:
no, I am taking Colorado to win, so I am fading Dallas tonight and St. Louis hope I did not confuse you Eli.
Oh , ok , my bad, I was looking at this:
December 5 Colorado Dallas -130
Calgary -125 St. Louis
And thought that putting the line beside the team was your way of showing who the play is on. It might be better just to bold the team and include the line at which you bet the game.
BTW, I think it's an excellent idea to update the bottom 8 home teams to reflect how teams are playing this season. Even though Colorado is not doing great, you still get them as an underdog so it's worthwhile.
Well Calgary made us 45-0 for the season with us still chasing Carolina on their 3rd game and Dallas chasing their second considered the bottom 8 home teams
Final O.T.
Calgary 4 St. Louis 3
December 6, 2008 we have Carolina they are 6-8 at home so we need to make a decision if to play Carolina or to play the road team and I have made a decision play Philadelphia because all the trends are in Philadelphias side Play Philadelphia Phil even money Carolina If this does not come through we will playing the 4th game on the chase
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Well Calgary made us 45-0 for the season with us still chasing Carolina on their 3rd game and Dallas chasing their second considered the bottom 8 home teams
Final O.T.
Calgary 4 St. Louis 3
December 6, 2008 we have Carolina they are 6-8 at home so we need to make a decision if to play Carolina or to play the road team and I have made a decision play Philadelphia because all the trends are in Philadelphias side Play Philadelphia Phil even money Carolina If this does not come through we will playing the 4th game on the chase
Well Calgary made us 45-0 for the season with us still chasing Carolina on their 3rd game and Dallas chasing their second considered the bottom 8 home teams
Final O.T.
Calgary 4 St. Louis 3
December 6, 2008 we have Carolina they are 6-8 at home so we need to make a decision if to play Carolina or to play the road team and I have made a decision play Philadelphia because all the trends are in Philadelphias side Play Philadelphia Phil even money Carolina If this does not come through we will playing the 4th game on the chase
Ok. A little confused... why would you play the 4th game of this chase if Philly doesn't come through? Wouldn't that mean that Carolina wins and closes out the chase?
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Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:
Well Calgary made us 45-0 for the season with us still chasing Carolina on their 3rd game and Dallas chasing their second considered the bottom 8 home teams
Final O.T.
Calgary 4 St. Louis 3
December 6, 2008 we have Carolina they are 6-8 at home so we need to make a decision if to play Carolina or to play the road team and I have made a decision play Philadelphia because all the trends are in Philadelphias side Play Philadelphia Phil even money Carolina If this does not come through we will playing the 4th game on the chase
Ok. A little confused... why would you play the 4th game of this chase if Philly doesn't come through? Wouldn't that mean that Carolina wins and closes out the chase?
Nice call with Calgary. They came all the way back to beat the Blues. I was rather pleased with that .
Now, on to the change of strategy. It's said to be very very dangerous to play around with the filter and rules of a system, and so I'm kinda worried that the play on the road team against Carolina could eventually cost a loss. Is Carolina gonna lose 4 in a row at home? Or now that they've lost 2, will they wake up and win this next game? Then, the decision against Washington on Sunday will be even harder.
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Nice call with Calgary. They came all the way back to beat the Blues. I was rather pleased with that .
Now, on to the change of strategy. It's said to be very very dangerous to play around with the filter and rules of a system, and so I'm kinda worried that the play on the road team against Carolina could eventually cost a loss. Is Carolina gonna lose 4 in a row at home? Or now that they've lost 2, will they wake up and win this next game? Then, the decision against Washington on Sunday will be even harder.
Prof8t - Expertcapper is deviating from the system. This is more of a mix between handicapping and system strategy.
Notice he said he is now playing Philly. So now that Carolina has lost 2 in a row at home, he's decided to FADE them and bet AGAINST them so that if they lose 3 in a row at home, he closes the chase.
These are the kinds of decisions that are crucial when playing around with a system but I find it makes everything much more interesting. If you believe in the system because it's 45 - 0 , then you'd bet for the Carolina win but if you have a gut feeling or you like the trends of the game, then you put your chase money on the road team.
Like I said, will be interesting to analyze the next game depending on the result tonight.
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Prof8t - Expertcapper is deviating from the system. This is more of a mix between handicapping and system strategy.
Notice he said he is now playing Philly. So now that Carolina has lost 2 in a row at home, he's decided to FADE them and bet AGAINST them so that if they lose 3 in a row at home, he closes the chase.
These are the kinds of decisions that are crucial when playing around with a system but I find it makes everything much more interesting. If you believe in the system because it's 45 - 0 , then you'd bet for the Carolina win but if you have a gut feeling or you like the trends of the game, then you put your chase money on the road team.
Like I said, will be interesting to analyze the next game depending on the result tonight.
Prof8t - Expertcapper is deviating from the system. This is more of a mix between handicapping and system strategy.
Notice he said he is now playing Philly. So now that Carolina has lost 2 in a row at home, he's decided to FADE them and bet AGAINST them so that if they lose 3 in a row at home, he closes the chase.
These are the kinds of decisions that are crucial when playing around with a system but I find it makes everything much more interesting. If you believe in the system because it's 45 - 0 , then you'd bet for the Carolina win but if you have a gut feeling or you like the trends of the game, then you put your chase money on the road team.
Like I said, will be interesting to analyze the next game depending on the result tonight.
Thanks for the clarification on this, however, what is meant by following the fourth game if Philly loses? Which way would the play fall? For or against Carolina?
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Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:
Prof8t - Expertcapper is deviating from the system. This is more of a mix between handicapping and system strategy.
Notice he said he is now playing Philly. So now that Carolina has lost 2 in a row at home, he's decided to FADE them and bet AGAINST them so that if they lose 3 in a row at home, he closes the chase.
These are the kinds of decisions that are crucial when playing around with a system but I find it makes everything much more interesting. If you believe in the system because it's 45 - 0 , then you'd bet for the Carolina win but if you have a gut feeling or you like the trends of the game, then you put your chase money on the road team.
Like I said, will be interesting to analyze the next game depending on the result tonight.
Thanks for the clarification on this, however, what is meant by following the fourth game if Philly loses? Which way would the play fall? For or against Carolina?
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