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NHL Home Chase 3 Games Variation Plus

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Posted: #76
punk, 
how does this system work, let me know
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by r8drlife:

punk, 
how does this system work, let me know


Look through this thread and you'll find everything you need to know.

In a couple of lines:

1) bet that good home teams will win at least 1 home game during a 3 or more game home stand by chasing every loss (doubling up after each loss)

2) bet AGAINST bad home teams during a 3 or more home stand (same money management as above)

3) make sure you come check out here who expertcapper thinks deserves to be in the bottom 8 home teams before each 3 game home stand begins (a list can be found in this thread)

4) Never bet a money line on a home team that is favored by -200 or more. Instead, go for the -0.5 regulation bet like we just did for Philadelphia.

And, you need to be aware of the dangerous financial implications of playing with a martingale chase system. Although this is sweet when you are 48 - 0 , it can come crashing down pretty quick. Expertcapper has been doing a good job so far steering the ship. I'm on board for a good ride. 
 
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Posted: #78
December 10, 2008
Record to date 48-0  WHAT A YEAR
we have 2 plays for tomorrow  Dallas is in their 2nd game for the home chase but once again they are 500 at home and not winning regularly at home so we are fading them just looked about 2 hours ago was -145 now down to -137. Also the road team in this series 4-0 guys.

Phoenix   +127
Dallas

Pitt
N Jersey -120

Good luck to all
 
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Posted: #79
Oh oh , getting interesting. For the record, I think it would be safest to take into consideration the 4-9-1 away record of the Phoenix Coyotes and the beating they went through last game. But, the Coyotes are still the best team statistically so I'll be hoping for a road win for them, BOL tonight .
 
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Posted: #80
Sorry...expertcapper why are you still chasing Dallas?  They won their home series opener.  Unless you faded against them from the start...
 
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by bl0wnaway:

Sorry...expertcapper why are you still chasing Dallas?  They won their home series opener.  Unless you faded against them from the start...


Yeah, exactly, bet against Dallas on the opening game of their 3 game home stand. So now this is second game of the chase and he has chosen to fade them once again because of their relatively weak home record. But keep in mind Phoenix is not doing too good on the road either.
 
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Posted: #82
Gotcha, thanks Punk.  I'm hoping Jersey can come home after a long road trip and take down a tough division rival in Pittsburgh tonight.  That's one tough division this year!
 
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Posted: #83
been watching this system for a few weeks now...good job guys, keep it up...jumping on board tonight starting with the devils, GL.
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by bl0wnaway:

Gotcha, thanks Punk.  I'm hoping Jersey can come home after a long road trip and take down a tough division rival in Pittsburgh tonight.  That's one tough division this year!


Right on (but you mean in New Jersey right?), but then again, I don't see any reason whatsoever as to why Jersey is favored against Pittsburgh other than the "home factor". This is the main problem and pitfall of the system. BOL with your plays fellas .
 
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Posted: #85
I like this already
Edmonton tomorrow
 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by BostonStrangler:

been watching this system for a few weeks now...good job guys, keep it up...jumping on board tonight starting with the devils, GL.


Pretty sweet to start off with a solid win like that. Great call by expertcapper to stick with the Devils .
 
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Posted: #87
So im guessing that with LA in the shit home record category, you would want to fade them tomorrow? Or else not choose to bet them for the reasons above?
Sorry, I just got on this system tonight, new to this.

 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:



Right on (but you mean in New Jersey right?), but then again, I don't see any reason whatsoever as to why Jersey is favored against Pittsburgh other than the "home factor". This is the main problem and pitfall of the system. BOL with your plays fellas .


Yeah...that's what I meant!  CHACHING! 

This system is aces Gents!!! 
 
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Posted: #89
hey guys,
 
i just started reading up on these chase threads and im very intrigued to start playing them since they are doing so well.
 
im having some trouble grasping which plays to make each night. could someone list the plays and number of units to play please.
 
it would be greatly appreciated. thank you guys and keep up the great work.
 
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Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:

December 10, 2008


Phoenix   +127           
Dallas

Pitt
N Jersey -120               

Good luck to all


Record now stands at  50 - 0  

Holy shit, expercapper, this was the very first time I doubted one of your plays with the Phoenix bet. Who cares if they are  4 - 9 -1 away. Dallas found a way to lose the game haha. Gotta love it .
 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by kbit:


 
i just started reading up on these chase threads and im very intrigued to start playing them since they are doing so well.
 

 
Kbit - I must warn you. There usually is a very drastic pitfall of playing any kind of system. They tend to even out in the long term and this has been a very enjoyable and profitable ride so far but it could end by crashing hard.

I'm pretty confident expertcapper can milk this system for a while but keep in mind this would take into account a profit of 50 units since the beginning of the season. So, imagine you start out and we get hit by the very first series chase. The total record will get hit by a loss but if you had just started, it will be a major blow to your bankroll.

I don't want to scare you away but I've seen it happen too often to not say a word about it and I'm sure expertcapper would say the same. If you are interested in the plays each night, look out for expertcapper's  picks by checking which line he puts beside a team for the games we are playing. And, also , you will probably need a book that offers -0.5 regulation bets to reduce the juice on some plays. BOL with whatever you choose to do .
 
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Posted: #92
So eli are you saying newbies to the system should probably wait until a chase doesn't work out then get in, or would that not matter b/c each chase is an idenpendent factor?  Or should we wait to get in on the 1st game, ie not get in the middle of a chase already in progress?
 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by hookemdustin:

So eli are you saying newbies to the system should probably wait until a chase doesn't work out then get in, or would that not matter b/c each chase is an idenpendent factor?  Or should we wait to get in on the 1st game, ie not get in the middle of a chase already in progress?


Shit, that's a tough question. I honestly don't know how to answer it. It really depends on your opinion regarding systems as betting strategy. Past experience has taught me that every system starts off well or, in some cases very very well , but tends to even out like everything in life. How can anyone predict when something is gonna crash and stop working, I have no idea, but I've been doing really great with this system for the past weeks and I'd be lying if I said I'll stop tomorrow. Thing is, like I said, a full 3 game series loss will kill you if this is your first play experience with the system.

Starting the system now without having won a single unit of the 50 this has won already is really a gamble. But,  I guess this is why we are here, to gamble with money? Sorry if I made your question even more complicated but this is the only answer I can come up with.
 
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Posted: #94
Our system is 50-0 do i see that right WOW is all I can say
I had a feeling Phoenix would come into Dallas and create havoc
Also the Devils being the hottest team in the leauge I thought would shut down Pitt and it happened again.
December 11,  2 games on tap for the chase
Florida
Edmonton -150
reason Florida hasn't won there since 1996, i think Edmonton is the stronger team
St.Louis
LA Kings  -150
I am going with the LA Kings they will win this in a shout out by one point see what happens very high scoring affair, also home team 4-1 last 5. my choice right now is LA kings -150
 
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Posted: #95
My suggestion is this hookemdustin never bet for then you can afford to lose and always cover your losses on the next bet. Keep this in mind because if you are playing the chase system you have to follow these rules, it is very important. hope I answered your questions hookemdustin
 
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Posted: #96
Guys, or gals wondering if we have any females gambling, please follow the betting strategy the way your supposed to like 10,20, 40,80 this is just an example and add the juice so you will always make a profit on the next game if it hits.
Do we have any females in the thread?
Please stand up  lol


Good luck as always
 
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by hookemdustin:

So eli are you saying newbies to the system should probably wait until a chase doesn't work out then get in, or would that not matter b/c each chase is an idenpendent factor?  Or should we wait to get in on the 1st game, ie not get in the middle of a chase already in progress?


The bottom line is you need a bankroll that can absorb the shock of consecutive losses.  The betting scheme is designed to make back the money lost and additionally, make profit.
 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:



Shit, that's a tough question. I honestly don't know how to answer it. It really depends on your opinion regarding systems as betting strategy. Past experience has taught me that every system starts off well or, in some cases very very well , but tends to even out like everything in life. How can anyone predict when something is gonna crash and stop working, I have no idea, but I've been doing really great with this system for the past weeks and I'd be lying if I said I'll stop tomorrow. Thing is, like I said, a full 3 game series loss will kill you if this is your first play experience with the system.

Starting the system now without having won a single unit of the 50 this has won already is really a gamble. But,  I guess this is why we are here, to gamble with money? Sorry if I made your question even more complicated but this is the only answer I can come up with.

On average if you played the 3 game chase the average loss would be 5 in a season so there ya go, did some research lately.
But any way I wanna wish the best tonight on the 2 games
 
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Posted: #99
Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:


On average if you played the 3 game chase the average loss would be 5 in a season so there ya go, did some research lately.


What are you referring to expert? 5 total series losses per season? I think it is extremely hard to predict how many losses we will have to go through because this is a mix between handicapping and strategy plays. We are not blindly fading bad home teams nor are we blindly betting all home teams so that's what makes it interesting. However, it is still a chase system so the losses will be substantial if it is someone's first play.

BTW, are you a NHL (caps) fan ?
 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:

Our system is 50-0 do i see that right WOW is all I can say
I had a feeling Phoenix would come into Dallas and create havoc
Also the Devils being the hottest team in the leauge I thought would shut down Pitt and it happened again.
December 11,  2 games on tap for the chase
Florida
Edmonton -150
reason Florida hasn't won there since 1996, i think Edmonton is the stronger team
St.Louis
LA Kings  -150
I am going with the LA Kings they will win this in a shout out by one point see what happens very high scoring affair, also home team 4-1 last 5. my choice right now is LA kings -150


BOL, on them both. 
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