boston is also a play tonight, the still have 5 home games remaining
No, they won on Tuesday in regulation ( in case anyone had taken the regulation line ) so no need to continue the chase. Although betting on Boston this year has been doing great so far .
boston is also a play tonight, the still have 5 home games remaining
No, they won on Tuesday in regulation ( in case anyone had taken the regulation line ) so no need to continue the chase. Although betting on Boston this year has been doing great so far .
yea but i thought if there is more than three home games you could keep the chase going? am i wrong on this?
Well considering Boston destroyed Anaheim 6 - 0 , no. But, this is not part of the system. Usually , when playing around with a martingale system, there is no double-dipping in any of the chases. Once you've won the unit you were going after, that's it.
yea but i thought if there is more than three home games you could keep the chase going? am i wrong on this?
Well considering Boston destroyed Anaheim 6 - 0 , no. But, this is not part of the system. Usually , when playing around with a martingale system, there is no double-dipping in any of the chases. Once you've won the unit you were going after, that's it.
The system play is Toronto since NYI is a bottom 8 team from last year. But I usually play the home team in the first game of the chase if the opponent is also a bottom 8 home team from last year which Toronto is.
Not bad of an idea but I don't see what the opponent being a bottom 8 home team has to do with anything. I might be interested in tracking the original version of this system. Let me know what your thoughts are when the plays are posted here. I'll try posting the plays once I figure out who is a play or not depending on their status from last year like is posted on the first page of this thread.
So yesterday was a 2 - 0. Might be chasing something from earlier but today sounds like the plays are CHICAGO and VANCOUVER.
The system play is Toronto since NYI is a bottom 8 team from last year. But I usually play the home team in the first game of the chase if the opponent is also a bottom 8 home team from last year which Toronto is.
Not bad of an idea but I don't see what the opponent being a bottom 8 home team has to do with anything. I might be interested in tracking the original version of this system. Let me know what your thoughts are when the plays are posted here. I'll try posting the plays once I figure out who is a play or not depending on their status from last year like is posted on the first page of this thread.
So yesterday was a 2 - 0. Might be chasing something from earlier but today sounds like the plays are CHICAGO and VANCOUVER.
So using the record of 127-1 and a loss = about 25 units. That would put who ever played this system from the beginning up over 100 units! Which is amazing. The only thing is you could only play to win about 2%-4% of your bankroll every play. In case of a bad run. None the less a very good system.
So using the record of 127-1 and a loss = about 25 units. That would put who ever played this system from the beginning up over 100 units! Which is amazing. The only thing is you could only play to win about 2%-4% of your bankroll every play. In case of a bad run. None the less a very good system.
for those who are still wondering why the Hurricanes are a play tonight it is because Atlanta is a horrible home team and is part of the list of teams to fade ( refer to first page of this topic )
for those who are still wondering why the Hurricanes are a play tonight it is because Atlanta is a horrible home team and is part of the list of teams to fade ( refer to first page of this topic )
HOLY SHIT How the hell did this happen. Major jinx as 20 minutes later, the Thrashers now win the game by coming back from a 3 - 1 score. Sorry to anyone who actually had the Canes.
HOLY SHIT How the hell did this happen. Major jinx as 20 minutes later, the Thrashers now win the game by coming back from a 3 - 1 score. Sorry to anyone who actually had the Canes.
CHICAGO -134 (regulation -0.5 line) & WASHINGTON - 191
So, Chicago gets it done with game #2 of the chase and seahawks should be quite happy . I'll take some time soon to update the complete record of this system (original one posted on 1st page of this thread).
On chase list as of now : Atlanta + Washington
No games tomorrow that fit system so see ya later .
CHICAGO -134 (regulation -0.5 line) & WASHINGTON - 191
So, Chicago gets it done with game #2 of the chase and seahawks should be quite happy . I'll take some time soon to update the complete record of this system (original one posted on 1st page of this thread).
On chase list as of now : Atlanta + Washington
No games tomorrow that fit system so see ya later .
Hey Eli, yeah this chase is still going awesome, I'm just screwing it up with too many other side bets. It's all about the discipline. I'm still doing pretty well.
The Washington scared me a bit, because of their big win yesterday in Boston, so I played it small on the -1 line. I plan on loading up pretty big for game 2 (and 3 if needed). Hope your doing well man. Thanks,
Hey Eli, yeah this chase is still going awesome, I'm just screwing it up with too many other side bets. It's all about the discipline. I'm still doing pretty well.
The Washington scared me a bit, because of their big win yesterday in Boston, so I played it small on the -1 line. I plan on loading up pretty big for game 2 (and 3 if needed). Hope your doing well man. Thanks,
Ok Scott, glad to hear that. Nicely done with the -1 play as it was definitely a let down spot for the Caps after having played against Boston.
So, again, like I said above, since I'm interested in seeing how well the original system ( when fading the bottom 8 home teams from last year) will do for the rest of the season, I'll keep posting the plays and, more importantly, try to figure out exactly how many units this system has won or lost since we have not kept a record up to date. Hopefully, the chasing does not get out of hand but I'll keep 2 simple rules in mind during these plays. No juice of more than -200 should be played and I'll go up to 4 games in the chase. If the line is worse than -200, than regulation odds are to be played.
On chase list as of now : Atlanta (fade) + Washington
So, plays today are:
FLORIDA -131 (fading Atlanta)
WASHINGTON -176
PITTSBURGH ( no lines available yet & this is the Tampa Bay fade )
Don't know what to expect from such a random determination of who to fade or not but the results have been good earlier on so I'm curious as to see if it's not gonna even out too soon .
Ok Scott, glad to hear that. Nicely done with the -1 play as it was definitely a let down spot for the Caps after having played against Boston.
So, again, like I said above, since I'm interested in seeing how well the original system ( when fading the bottom 8 home teams from last year) will do for the rest of the season, I'll keep posting the plays and, more importantly, try to figure out exactly how many units this system has won or lost since we have not kept a record up to date. Hopefully, the chasing does not get out of hand but I'll keep 2 simple rules in mind during these plays. No juice of more than -200 should be played and I'll go up to 4 games in the chase. If the line is worse than -200, than regulation odds are to be played.
On chase list as of now : Atlanta (fade) + Washington
So, plays today are:
FLORIDA -131 (fading Atlanta)
WASHINGTON -176
PITTSBURGH ( no lines available yet & this is the Tampa Bay fade )
Don't know what to expect from such a random determination of who to fade or not but the results have been good earlier on so I'm curious as to see if it's not gonna even out too soon .
On chase list as of now : Atlanta (fade) + Washington
So, plays today are:
FLORIDA -131
WASHINGTON -176
PITTSBURGH
Atlanta is now off the chase list as Florida comes through with the win. Pittsburgh also wins so that ends the Tampa Bay chase. I smell trouble with Washington though, not looking good at all.
On chase list as of now : Atlanta (fade) + Washington
So, plays today are:
FLORIDA -131
WASHINGTON -176
PITTSBURGH
Atlanta is now off the chase list as Florida comes through with the win. Pittsburgh also wins so that ends the Tampa Bay chase. I smell trouble with Washington though, not looking good at all.
Chasing Washington to GAME 3 is probably gonna probably have odds of -250 to -300
But like I said above, no way would I have laid that kind of juice when trying to recuperate 2 games that they lost. Best way to handle this is to deal with a book that offers regulation odds or the -1 line.
Chasing Washington to GAME 3 is probably gonna probably have odds of -250 to -300
But like I said above, no way would I have laid that kind of juice when trying to recuperate 2 games that they lost. Best way to handle this is to deal with a book that offers regulation odds or the -1 line.
Holy shit ! I was not sure if these numbers were correct but the original system as posted in the very first post of the thread has indeed been profitable. The question now is for how long.
As of right now, my numbers show an updated record of 130 - 1.
Now, keep in mind there is an ongoing chase with Washington and it has now reached game 3 which is already costly. As any other martingale system, there have been ridiculous series where crazy amounts have been bet on games 4 to recuperate the losses of previous games. But, is has only happened twice so far. Here is a breakdown of the stats for the original system.
It was as simple as fading these teams when at home for 3 or more games: LA PHO STL TB ATL FLO TOR NYI. All other teams were to be chased at home until they win a game. The maximum number of games in the chase is 4 games.
The only team to have lead to a series loss is Vancouver when they lost 5 consecutive home games between January 9th and January 18th. Since I stop after a game 4 loss, I've estimated the unit loss to be around 20 units. Also, keep in mind that regulation lines were used when lines were very juicy ( my criteria was -200 or worse ).
team # of series won
ANA 6 ATL 3 BOS 5 BUF 3 CAR 4 ( *1 ) CLB 4 CLG 6 CHI 4 COL 3 DAL 5 DET 5 EDM 4 FLO 6 LAK 4 MIN 6 MTL 4 NJ 6 NSH 4 ( *1 ) NYI 3 NYR 3 OTT 6 PHI 2 PHX 5 PIT 4 SJ 5 STL 4 TB 5 TOR 3 VAN 5 ( and one series loss ) WSH 3 ( ongoing chase and it's getting ugly )
Nothing extraordinary since any other team can decide to lose a couple of games in a row so I am not posting this to guarantee the system is gonna work for the remaining of the season. I was simply wondering how well it had done and am expecting it to even out since we are quickly approaching the end of the season when some crazy stuff has happened.
If anyone has different data than the one I've posted here, please let me know. I'll use this record to keep track of how this chase system does .
Holy shit ! I was not sure if these numbers were correct but the original system as posted in the very first post of the thread has indeed been profitable. The question now is for how long.
As of right now, my numbers show an updated record of 130 - 1.
Now, keep in mind there is an ongoing chase with Washington and it has now reached game 3 which is already costly. As any other martingale system, there have been ridiculous series where crazy amounts have been bet on games 4 to recuperate the losses of previous games. But, is has only happened twice so far. Here is a breakdown of the stats for the original system.
It was as simple as fading these teams when at home for 3 or more games: LA PHO STL TB ATL FLO TOR NYI. All other teams were to be chased at home until they win a game. The maximum number of games in the chase is 4 games.
The only team to have lead to a series loss is Vancouver when they lost 5 consecutive home games between January 9th and January 18th. Since I stop after a game 4 loss, I've estimated the unit loss to be around 20 units. Also, keep in mind that regulation lines were used when lines were very juicy ( my criteria was -200 or worse ).
team # of series won
ANA 6 ATL 3 BOS 5 BUF 3 CAR 4 ( *1 ) CLB 4 CLG 6 CHI 4 COL 3 DAL 5 DET 5 EDM 4 FLO 6 LAK 4 MIN 6 MTL 4 NJ 6 NSH 4 ( *1 ) NYI 3 NYR 3 OTT 6 PHI 2 PHX 5 PIT 4 SJ 5 STL 4 TB 5 TOR 3 VAN 5 ( and one series loss ) WSH 3 ( ongoing chase and it's getting ugly )
Nothing extraordinary since any other team can decide to lose a couple of games in a row so I am not posting this to guarantee the system is gonna work for the remaining of the season. I was simply wondering how well it had done and am expecting it to even out since we are quickly approaching the end of the season when some crazy stuff has happened.
If anyone has different data than the one I've posted here, please let me know. I'll use this record to keep track of how this chase system does .
- I forgot to mention that the (*1) simply means the number of series that went the distance ( all 4 games but a win for G4 ).
- As for the criteria that dictates who to fade or not, at first I thought it was kinda random to depend on last year's standings and not adapt it to this year's home team standings. But, a quick look at the standings right now will reveal that nothing much has changed. Only two teams ( Ottawa + Edmonton ) are now a bottom 8 home team whereas they did not finish bottom 8 last year. Not as random as I thought it would be.
- Very dangerous strategy? Absolutely. But I always thought it might have been profitable to recycle these home stand series and having 100 units to show for it as profit right now would have been nice but it's not over yet. These martingale systems have a tendency to crash very hard.
- I forgot to mention that the (*1) simply means the number of series that went the distance ( all 4 games but a win for G4 ).
- As for the criteria that dictates who to fade or not, at first I thought it was kinda random to depend on last year's standings and not adapt it to this year's home team standings. But, a quick look at the standings right now will reveal that nothing much has changed. Only two teams ( Ottawa + Edmonton ) are now a bottom 8 home team whereas they did not finish bottom 8 last year. Not as random as I thought it would be.
- Very dangerous strategy? Absolutely. But I always thought it might have been profitable to recycle these home stand series and having 100 units to show for it as profit right now would have been nice but it's not over yet. These martingale systems have a tendency to crash very hard.
Fantastic breakdown Eli, thanks for all your work. I'm really nervous about the Capitals tomorrow night. I'm considering only trying to recoup half of my losses so far and then put the other half on the next chase? Thoughts?
Fantastic breakdown Eli, thanks for all your work. I'm really nervous about the Capitals tomorrow night. I'm considering only trying to recoup half of my losses so far and then put the other half on the next chase? Thoughts?
What scares me is the Leafs tend to win games they have NO business winning.... and Antropov getting traded will only tempt more action on the Caps.... I'll still bet it and stay true to the system... But I'll be sweatin' balls if they don't take an early lead!!
What scares me is the Leafs tend to win games they have NO business winning.... and Antropov getting traded will only tempt more action on the Caps.... I'll still bet it and stay true to the system... But I'll be sweatin' balls if they don't take an early lead!!
Fantastic breakdown Eli, thanks for all your work. I'm really nervous about the Capitals tomorrow night. I'm considering only trying to recoup half of my losses so far and then put the other half on the next chase? Thoughts?
No problem, I had all the stats on my computer so I figured I'd post it in this thread.
As for the strategy concerning recuperating losses, it's all personal choice. If the amount to be risked is higher than a personal limit you've set yourself, by no way should a system (whatever it's record be) be a reason to break that rule. However, like it's been pointed out several times in this thread, this personal limit should not have been set low because of the probability of having to chase until a game 3 like right now or even longer when dealing with a game 4. Should you go for half and then spread the other half elsewhere ? It all depends where you are at in your bankroll. If you have enough profit to take the hit and then some, then let the system ride. If not, then anything that could lessen the lost units is a good strategy.
A major problem here is the inflated line because the opponent is Toronto. Like I said, with these martingale chases, they can crash down very hard not because a lot of teams will have lost 3 or 4 consecutive home games but rather the timing of these losses can be brutal. Washington is leading their division yet they might lose three in a row when being heavy heavy favorites against Florida, Carolina, and Toronto. Rather unexpected let's say.
Hopefully they don't. Sorry I can't give ya a straightforward answer but since all I do now is track, it's much easier for me to write down 10 units on Washington than to actually go and place the bet to recuperate the losses. I know it's tough and this is the major flaw of these kinds of systems.
Fantastic breakdown Eli, thanks for all your work. I'm really nervous about the Capitals tomorrow night. I'm considering only trying to recoup half of my losses so far and then put the other half on the next chase? Thoughts?
No problem, I had all the stats on my computer so I figured I'd post it in this thread.
As for the strategy concerning recuperating losses, it's all personal choice. If the amount to be risked is higher than a personal limit you've set yourself, by no way should a system (whatever it's record be) be a reason to break that rule. However, like it's been pointed out several times in this thread, this personal limit should not have been set low because of the probability of having to chase until a game 3 like right now or even longer when dealing with a game 4. Should you go for half and then spread the other half elsewhere ? It all depends where you are at in your bankroll. If you have enough profit to take the hit and then some, then let the system ride. If not, then anything that could lessen the lost units is a good strategy.
A major problem here is the inflated line because the opponent is Toronto. Like I said, with these martingale chases, they can crash down very hard not because a lot of teams will have lost 3 or 4 consecutive home games but rather the timing of these losses can be brutal. Washington is leading their division yet they might lose three in a row when being heavy heavy favorites against Florida, Carolina, and Toronto. Rather unexpected let's say.
Hopefully they don't. Sorry I can't give ya a straightforward answer but since all I do now is track, it's much easier for me to write down 10 units on Washington than to actually go and place the bet to recuperate the losses. I know it's tough and this is the major flaw of these kinds of systems.
.
(wow, brodeur with the shutout already) 
. I'll take some time soon to update the complete record of this system (original one posted on 1st page of this thread).
How the hell did this happen. Major jinx as 20 minutes later, the Thrashers now win the game by coming back from a 3 - 1 score. Sorry to anyone who actually had the Canes. 
nice choke job )
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